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Predictions June 28 - July 4 Mining For White Gold

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vibing this system. It's plenty cold. It's a biggie.
    2 weeks out, I am in.
    LWT located at 9 o'clock, below.
    [​IMG]

    EC Ensembles going for a two part crescendo.
     

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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Frog isn't convinced.
    That's enough for me
     
    skimax, Majikthise, piolet and 6 others like this.
  3. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    I vote for it
     
  4. stansi

    stansi One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^^^
    The "Joker" lives.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 ‘ain’t much chop...
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system has excited me for at least a week now.
    A big end of May, and a big end to June is good enough for me.


    This is the chart that shows us all we need to know at this point.
    It’s looking pretty well placed.

    The EPS mean (the most important part of the ensemble) is showing a signal as a green light for speculation for this period.

    And.... GFS is on the bandwagon too as the first deterministic cab off the rank.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 has it on target.
    The frog only updates weekdays IIRC...
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was using facetious model
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  10. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Funnily enough, (and I’m sure you were messing around) the frog was calling this system out a few weeks back, but has since dropped clean off his forecasts
     
  12. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Does anyone listen to the frog?
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    FV3 GFS going in big very early.


    +348 hrs out, but the continued signal is a good sign nonetheless.
     
  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    skimax and Rat trap bindings like this.
  16. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

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    Ok, can we lock this bad boy in now please? PLEASE??
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    348 hours, oh boy!
     
  18. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    It's gone on the latest 348. Shocked! Shocked, I tells ya
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's a tip... Look at long range modeling once a week not run to run.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will be back soon.
    It's about the trend at the moment.
     
  21. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Close enough
     
  22. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Where do i find these charts?
     
  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meh ....... Peaks too early. Everyone gets wet again. Youse all gunna hate me again.

    [​IMG]

     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rat trap bindings likes this.
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's trending slidey at the moment.
    Give it 3-4 days yet.

     
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  26. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    It looks slidey to my untrained eye. That long straight fetch from NW Aussie.

    If it is warm and wet (again) - let it slide away!
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's far from a early peak on EPS. It's the deep cold core (approx 120E, 50S) that is still very South from where it could be and is the the part to watch. It has stalled on the last 2-3 runs.
    The high over NZ is broadening but trending Eastward.
     
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  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Playing the odds this is on...
    End of may, end of june lock in end of july too imo. End of aug will be wait and see.
     
  29. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    People complain to me here in Melbourne and say : "ooooooh it is cold ". I say NO ! It is not cold enough , AT ALL!! ;-P . Come on sky , you can do it , SNOW ya b**stard!
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are these vegetable sliders?

    Your bannd.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *you’re
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair, the stall on EC leads me to believe it’s the reinforcing shortwave that pushes through the SE, so I think we’re looking at at possible 2nd of July arrival, going of this morning’s EC run.
     
  35. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    :fishing:

    @CarveMan
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be a bumpy ride through to the end of June. But one of those ensemble forecasts would truly open the door.

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

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    Latest 00z GFS for this timeframe reminds me of some Cypress Hill lyrics - "I want to get HIGH, so HIGH"
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Isentropic surface plots are suggesting this baby may still want to push Eastward effectively yet. Needs a few more runs imo.
     
  40. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    No he was likening the burgers to the group of musicians he plays with.
     
  41. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    This looks like a very deep wedge of cold! Let's hope it peaks at the right time, eh? Save the schoolies?
     
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  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    pulsing this morning
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS is all over it.
    GFS no where to be seen.
     
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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    ?

    GFS looks good to me (but nonetheless still quite a bit out long term). Am I missing something?
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forget GFS Determ for now, it’s all over the shop. It’s got no trend and 280+hours out!
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair enough, but IMO it is important to point out that it has a coldfront bearing trend over the past three runs, and more generally over the past little while.

    The EPS mean and control is as you note, also positive for us. So it is looking pretty good across modelling IMO.
     
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  47. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm pretty comfortable with +384. I smash (ie rapid page down) through the 4 ensemble's on FNMOC every work day. I look for trend consolidation between the 4 models and from day-to-day. I take a mental note of any anomalies and then see how they play out. I'm probably more used to looking at surf patterns as this is a 12 month hobby versus seasonal snow but generally the long range trends play out with surprising consistency.

    FWIW the long range is still looking pretty dire (other than odds and ends over the coming days) with a blocking pattern establishing itself.
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has had a few missmatched parameters but the general trend has been there from a composite approach imo.
     
  49. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Cheers Belly, lets hope the LRF is poor then. But JIC - that's why NZ was invented!
     
  50. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Slovenski likes this.