Predictions June 28 - July 4 Mining For White Gold

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The lead up to this period is quite complex. Pressure surfaces and Isentropic surfaces/ and associated advective outcomes going through some sporadic behavior. Nothing should be locked in yet imo. Initial conditions progression may still be a rather complex task for model data output.
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Still not convinced on the positive side for the weekend. Its a sharks swimming southward scenario and history says this is not good. EC gives hope of some decent snow after the rain but the others don't fill me with confidence.

    Who knows what happens after that. Models all over the place but looks interesting.
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see your read. At all.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My punt is that Major Models 00Z tomorow will show a mintier and more active mid to downstream delivery and a sleeker Vorticity pattern. Time will tell .
     
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  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tonight AXS is slider with the cold air missing altogether. Its rain followed by nothing or a dusting for mine.

    GFS has rain in NW flow, then it gets cold and looks to dry out. I get your point re it not being indian ocean type drenching but i still think it will rain.

    EC looks like a win for me with 20mm rain and perhaps 20-30cm snow. Theres red over the alps at the end of the 24hr period to 10am sunday. I've only just realised EC is 9km grid and perhaps this is why its picking moisture that GFS seems to be missing once it gets cold??

    Who knows whats going to happen after the weekend. A few different outcomes being predicted.

    IN summary - i got no idea and i wouldn't be packing the car yet but definitely watching intently for the next 48hrs to see how the forecasts change. AT the vibe level - i just have these memories of previous sysetms that peak over perth never doing any good for the alps.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't look at AXS G
    EC looks great.
    GFS looks fine.
     
  7. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Both Axs-G and axs-r look good to me. Its certainly great to see snow potential again.
     
  8. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unbelievable. So much data. And plenty of different perspectives on forecasts!

    Starting skiing 40 years ago next week at merits, Thredbo.

    Back then we got 1 synoptic map a day with zero satellite pics.

    Have fun and enjoy the snow!
     
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  9. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit off topic: ~ 34 years for - Chookie footing on carp Uni club grear at Vic smalls.

    We also had no snow cams, no internet, unrealistic snow reports and for real info we had to ring the resort desks. There was also the 1800 'Snowinfo' recording that died with the Internet.

    I reall Don't miss em!
     
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  10. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping this comes off for Kosi.....will set up the higher elevations for BC....

     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much like this.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marginal below ~1800. Actually, not marginal, just rain.
     
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  13. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep, temps posted above are pretty different to even Perisher base level.

     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    20mm at ~0 says wet slop at best. and it's a forecast for 2000m... the 15mm follow up looks better.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    From 4pm to 6/7pm sure.
    After that no worries.
    At Perisher.
     
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  16. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Agreed - still looks like 10-20mm of rain followed by 10-20mm of snow. The split between the two depends on what happens between about 7pm and 10pm (ie timing of cold air and precip).

    Edit: at ~1700m in NSW
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 850hpa temps are really interesting
    For the "rain" (say 4pm) period for Victoria . They have a pocket of 2 degrees at 1440m
    So basically a snow level at 1600
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    0c at 1600 and no real accumulation at that level.
     
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a pocket of 2-4 degrees. The fact its sitting in amongst 4-6 degree air suggest closer to 4 than 2. Could all be 3.9 degrees.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep. vibe is marginal. so to preempt the inevitable, this is not gonna be a fizzer, it's just a marginal system. IMO.
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That depends on a bunch of things...
    Orographic , Shear, down drafts, humidity, residual temps, precip rates .
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, just looking at yr/no, the temps look a bit better for Buller Summit, compared to Perisher, from a purely direct temp scenario. Not taking local factors.

    It depends on when the switch flicks to the proper cold air IMO
    EC is a bit more sluggish than previous, with VIC at 5pm and NSW at 8pm.
    Before that, snow/wet snow/mix will fall above 1700m. It will probably start off as rain, say 5-15mm for above 1700m.
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am also now comparing the charts at 72 hours .
    I take axs-r as the most correct.
    Comparing how far the cold air pushes into SA on friday night.
     
  24. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will Sunday be a windhold day (Perisher)?
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    kinda
     
  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am looking at heading up on Sat. with a view going to Hotham and Dinner plain to XC ski the JB hut track out past Paw Paw Plain(1650 m+) on Sunday . Am I getting too excited too early ?
     
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yes
     
  28. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  29. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    Hi @Donzah , ACCESSG is predicting ecl on 3rd and 4th. Any comments temps look ok but not showing much inland precip. Looks windy as, was wonering if it could be under predicting and could be good for thredbo.
     
  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Where can one see "The Table" of predictions for snow fall regarding major Vic. locations?
     
  31. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Did you really strap Carp to your feet? They are a pest species and grow to become rather large but they must be the original fish scale pattern base XC ski!. That on the other hand could be Crap if the carp were not quite dead yet and wriggled around a bit while you were trying to ski on them. Bindings back in those days for strapping CARP to your feet must have been unwieldy too.
     
  32. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 cm front 1, 20cm front 2 (potential for upgrade).
     
  33. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    When do you predict the second front will arrive? Other predictions seem to suggest the second front will deliver some snow to some locations and none to others. The R**n arriving on Sat. looks like one thing we can agree on. I won't be packing my snow stuff until I can see what things look like on Friday or even Saturday morning.
    Look what Ms. Bunn is saying now:
    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
     
  34. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

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    Saturday looks a bit better now. Sunday could be a mixed bag. We could get lucky and the tail might pick up a bit of that cold air from the lows down below. Certainly no saviour that's for sure.
     
  35. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Front 1 this weekend, front 2 is mid next week. Point being is 2 pretty distinctive systems / fronts in the thread date range. Which is cool.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS downgraded the second system this run. Looks dry but still fairly cold.

    The last two EC runs haven’t had it at all. The signs aren’t looking that great for it, unless EC turns around tonight or tomorrow.
     
  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    SHaping up to be the snowmaking season.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    This always happens in June. Nothing special. Usually see the first big dump of the season on average 2nd or 3rd week of July.
     
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  39. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I shot from the hip because I had a quick glance at the charts and there seemed a stronger polar feed for front 2 than front 1. But it's still all in the absence of a strong LWT node which seems a 'few' weeks away. Yep, it's not looking good atm.
     
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  40. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    And let’s not forget we have already had one...
     
  41. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    LWT node moves in this weekend bringing that cold air and storm for the weekend but then very quickly weakens.
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed.
    Hence this punter not getting too excited last few weeks.
    Another 2 weeks be watching a bit more closely.
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And EC 00z ridges the 2/3rd system out again.
    I think we only will manage to have the 29th system at this point IMO.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic folks. This is not a seasonal prediction or comparisons thread.
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Illustrated in post BBQ thread earlier.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 00Z ( imo the best model at this range ) not looking pretty for 29th.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon 1500-1600m could see a good 15-30cm for NSW, based on it.
    VIC probably a bit less so.
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid snowline 7pm and 10 pm Sat. Approx 15 cm at best after the liquid . IMO its on the conservative side.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Western Tasmania looks to be heading for a good soaking imo.