Predictions June 28 - July 4 Mining For White Gold

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00-240 hrs
     
  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS to compare.
    Pretty close IMO.
    ( I learn't something just now can you tell ! ;))
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can see enough precipitation for 15-20cm, 20-30cm at higher altitudes.
    If the switch flick doesn’t shift further into the night, I don’t see any reason for not at least 15cm for resort level.

    Below 1400m is a different story.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that based on both GFS and EC ?
     
  5. Looks ok on paper for now. But to make a forecast you really need the 12z Ukmet and follow runs..
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes.
    EC has more precipitation, poorer temps.
    GFS has less precipitation, better temps.
    IMO.
     
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  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's going to be violent...
    Windy AF
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :confused: UK Met has had more wobbles in the last 10 runs than GFS and EC . Is there something the rest of us are missing ?
     

  9. When 12z loads i will try post it but for now here's the 00z.
    Selection_005.png
     

  10. No i'm sure you are all over this feature. Just sayin be cautious atm. The new GFS has a cold bias in the upper levels that can increase over the forecast period.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, still lots of wobble room with this one, I'm not really game to call it right now.
     
  12. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    At Baw Baw, I will just Wobble and close my eyes....
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes FV3 identified that general aspect as a potential problem and made that no secret. Some ironing out of Isentropic related PV behavior may have been one of the problems .
     
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  14. With what is on the table atm 38-40 cm looks realistic from the trough.
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Full faith on an unwaivering trough axis ?
     
  16. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think I learnt something too. Is that a wandering cold pool over North Queensland?
     
  17. That shortwave trailing the cold front to me suggests the axis will reach over the main range.

    Basically i substituted the ircon for the GFS with ec cmc mix. Icon is my prefered
    over GFS because it is tuned for orographic lift. So yeah with whats on the table
    on paper 38/40 atm for me with plenty of hail in the mix.

     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF favouring more precipitation for VIC resorts, particularly Buller, compared to the NSW resorts.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Residual snow cover for Buller will be less that Hotham and Falls imo.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much of OCF's precip can be expected ahead of the cold air boundary IMO.
    Soundings indicate solid PWAT numbers by 4pm Saturday for the Vic's Nor-East.
     
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  21. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Do you guys see anything substantial for long range, because things aren't looking that exciting for natural snow at levels under 1800m for this next system? Some may some it's still early days, but the way this clear stuff is going, its not healthy for a solid base coming into July. The weather pattern has got to break down pretty soon agree. I'm no expert, but I don't like the idea of riding man made in July...
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    See BBQ thread, there are discussions about an uptick in winter systems for the SE after the second week of July, with the confidence of the next RW and LWT coincidence.
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah you probably are right there. What I have been personally waiting for is the yr.no hour by hours.

    My point up there is Buller (~1700m) gets more precipitation. But most of it is probably going to be rain, as the heavy stuff mostly falls as sleet and rain according to the modelling.

    10-25mm and 5-15cm afterwards.

    Perisher (~1700m) looks in much better shape. The cold air comes as the precipitation falls not after.

    Something like 5-10mm of rain and 10-15cm of snow.

    So certainly a marginal system, but NSW looks to do a bit better on the whole. Best for places above 1800m.
     
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  24. Gimped

    Gimped One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    how about Thredbo?
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    For mine Thredbo. 20-40mm rain followed by 10-20cm. Probably 5cm at Village. Will be a net gain up high. Better than nothing.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not enough precip for the maximum amount of rain quoted.
     
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  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are probably right but wait until meso-predictions come out this arvo. For example EC (at 9km grid) predicting more precip than AXSG (35km grid) and GFS (28km grid).
     
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  28. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us

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    Not terrible at 7pm right? lots of blue ... 3500ft = 1050m
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The interesting thing is EC shows the main temp drop at 8-9pm for Buller. And NSW resorts see the drop at 10-11pm.

    GFS is about 3 hours earlier, with Buller seeing a drop at 5-6pm and NSW Resorts at 8pm.

    There isn't much chance for Buller until this temp drop occurs. So GFS is more desirable.

    It looks like 10-20cm after the coldfront IMO.
     
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  30. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us

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    That 7pm EC snow line chart is clearly showing 4000-4500ft; even top end of the range is sub-1400m. Where are you seeing 8-9pm? Is 7pm an anomaly then temp goes up again? Trying to understand...
     
  31. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    I know its beyond the timeframe of this thread, but what's the initial "feel" for the system that appears around a week beyond monday.

    I'm not skiing till the 19th.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is the metric version. FL of 2100m for Buller at 7pm. Improves 8pm and 9pm to those ~1400m temps.
     
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  33. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looking pretty close now... maybe more like 20 and 20.
     
  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.

    Not this

    IMO...
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS likes Snow Blowey’s suggestion more, but I still can’t see those kinds of numbers for the NSW resorts. Total precipitation looks like 20 to 35mm at best IMO.
    We should wait and see for EC though.
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z charts look better across Axs-r and GFS
     
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just going to say AXS-R has light red 50-60mm for main range when you zoom in. It actually looks quite good for NSW IMO - less rain and more snow. MOst importantly those isobars are starting to point the right way up at the business end.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00Z GFS

    looks to hit around zero 7pm in Vic Alps

    [​IMG]

    You would think wet for all the alps to that time.

    [​IMG]

    By 10pm NSW Alps down to zero

    [​IMG]

    Precipitation would be snow over Victoria and a mix for NSW (snow high) 7pm-10pm

    [​IMG]

    500 hPa temps are pretty warm though until about 1am, that won't be helpful.
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maaaaaaarginal.
     
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  40. Going to shit ridged out.

    UKMET-EC-CMC
    Selection_006.png Selection_007.png Selection_006.png




     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks that way on EC and CMC.

    IMO
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 00Z 3days outlook.
     
  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain - Snow - Rain. Net loss. IMO.
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain -yes
    Snow -yes
    Rain ?

    where ? the third part
     
  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree it's marginal. Agree there isn't a lot of moisture. But Tues - Wed will be wet at resort level. IMO.
     
  46. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So, another Astro- inspired event?
     
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  47. 13-km ICON Australia & NZ Snowfall.gif 00z icon lost interest.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    What? Not sure if serious?
    EC dropped the midweek system ages ago.
    GFS shows 5-10cm at best, and will probably downgrade soon.
    No rain.
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    After looking at nullschool and running a few temp and water projections - I observe that this is classic Perisher - the Comeback Kid stuff. The reality is the only time I go below 1700 meters is on a train to Thredbo river. It'll be fine by Wednesday. Though it will probably suck at Front Valley quite a few days early next week. But is there really any other better time to learn to ski in Australia - than in the rain. Anyway my pass protection is now well below zero - so I guess only 11 more months to June again.
     
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