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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.
EC 00-240 hrs
GFS to compare.
Pretty close IMO.
( I learn't something just now can you tell ! )
I can see enough precipitation for 15-20cm, 20-30cm at higher altitudes.
If the switch flick doesn’t shift further into the night, I don’t see any reason for not at least 15cm for resort level.
Below 1400m is a different story.
Is that based on both GFS and EC ?
Looks ok on paper for now. But to make a forecast you really need the 12z Ukmet and follow runs..
EC has more precipitation, poorer temps.
GFS has less precipitation, better temps.
It's going to be violent...
UK Met has had more wobbles in the last 10 runs than GFS and EC . Is there something the rest of us are missing ?
When 12z loads i will try post it but for now here's the 00z.
No i'm sure you are all over this feature. Just sayin be cautious atm. The new GFS has a cold bias in the upper levels that can increase over the forecast period.
Yeh, still lots of wobble room with this one, I'm not really game to call it right now.
At Baw Baw, I will just Wobble and close my eyes....
Yes FV3 identified that general aspect as a potential problem and made that no secret. Some ironing out of Isentropic related PV behavior may have been one of the problems .
With what is on the table atm 38-40 cm looks realistic from the trough.
Full faith on an unwaivering trough axis ?
I think I learnt something too. Is that a wandering cold pool over North Queensland?
That shortwave trailing the cold front to me suggests the axis will reach over the main range.
Basically i substituted the ircon for the GFS with ec cmc mix. Icon is my prefered
over GFS because it is tuned for orographic lift. So yeah with whats on the table
on paper 38/40 atm for me with plenty of hail in the mix.
OCF favouring more precipitation for VIC resorts, particularly Buller, compared to the NSW resorts.
Residual snow cover for Buller will be less that Hotham and Falls imo.
Much of OCF's precip can be expected ahead of the cold air boundary IMO.
Soundings indicate solid PWAT numbers by 4pm Saturday for the Vic's Nor-East.
Do you guys see anything substantial for long range, because things aren't looking that exciting for natural snow at levels under 1800m for this next system? Some may some it's still early days, but the way this clear stuff is going, its not healthy for a solid base coming into July. The weather pattern has got to break down pretty soon agree. I'm no expert, but I don't like the idea of riding man made in July...
See BBQ thread, there are discussions about an uptick in winter systems for the SE after the second week of July, with the confidence of the next RW and LWT coincidence.
Yeah you probably are right there. What I have been personally waiting for is the yr.no hour by hours.
My point up there is Buller (~1700m) gets more precipitation. But most of it is probably going to be rain, as the heavy stuff mostly falls as sleet and rain according to the modelling.
10-25mm and 5-15cm afterwards.
Perisher (~1700m) looks in much better shape. The cold air comes as the precipitation falls not after.
Something like 5-10mm of rain and 10-15cm of snow.
So certainly a marginal system, but NSW looks to do a bit better on the whole. Best for places above 1800m.
how about Thredbo?
For mine Thredbo. 20-40mm rain followed by 10-20cm. Probably 5cm at Village. Will be a net gain up high. Better than nothing.
Not enough precip for the maximum amount of rain quoted.
You are probably right but wait until meso-predictions come out this arvo. For example EC (at 9km grid) predicting more precip than AXSG (35km grid) and GFS (28km grid).
Not terrible at 7pm right? lots of blue ... 3500ft = 1050m
The interesting thing is EC shows the main temp drop at 8-9pm for Buller. And NSW resorts see the drop at 10-11pm.
GFS is about 3 hours earlier, with Buller seeing a drop at 5-6pm and NSW Resorts at 8pm.
There isn't much chance for Buller until this temp drop occurs. So GFS is more desirable.
It looks like 10-20cm after the coldfront IMO.
That 7pm EC snow line chart is clearly showing 4000-4500ft; even top end of the range is sub-1400m. Where are you seeing 8-9pm? Is 7pm an anomaly then temp goes up again? Trying to understand...
I know its beyond the timeframe of this thread, but what's the initial "feel" for the system that appears around a week beyond monday.
I'm not skiing till the 19th.
Here is the metric version. FL of 2100m for Buller at 7pm. Improves 8pm and 9pm to those ~1400m temps.
Looking pretty close now... maybe more like 20 and 20.
GFS likes Snow Blowey’s suggestion more, but I still can’t see those kinds of numbers for the NSW resorts. Total precipitation looks like 20 to 35mm at best IMO.
We should wait and see for EC though.
00z charts look better across Axs-r and GFS
Was just going to say AXS-R has light red 50-60mm for main range when you zoom in. It actually looks quite good for NSW IMO - less rain and more snow. MOst importantly those isobars are starting to point the right way up at the business end.
looks to hit around zero 7pm in Vic Alps
You would think wet for all the alps to that time.
By 10pm NSW Alps down to zero
Precipitation would be snow over Victoria and a mix for NSW (snow high) 7pm-10pm
500 hPa temps are pretty warm though until about 1am, that won't be helpful.
Going to shit ridged out.
Looks that way on EC and CMC.
EC Rapid 00Z 3days outlook.
Rain - Snow - Rain. Net loss. IMO.
where ? the third part
Agree it's marginal. Agree there isn't a lot of moisture. But Tues - Wed will be wet at resort level. IMO.
So, another Astro- inspired event?
00z icon lost interest.
What? Not sure if serious?
EC dropped the midweek system ages ago.
GFS shows 5-10cm at best, and will probably downgrade soon.
After looking at nullschool and running a few temp and water projections - I observe that this is classic Perisher - the Comeback Kid stuff. The reality is the only time I go below 1700 meters is on a train to Thredbo river. It'll be fine by Wednesday. Though it will probably suck at Front Valley quite a few days early next week. But is there really any other better time to learn to ski in Australia - than in the rain. Anyway my pass protection is now well below zero - so I guess only 11 more months to June again.