Predictions June 28 - July 4 Mining For White Gold

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  2. EC see's that snow due to lower hpa with the sharp shortwave+vorticity. download (2).png download (3).png download (1).png .






     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, wishbones of upper level vort might save the day for Vic after ~9pm.
    Looks intense upstairs.
    Still looking like 15-25cm across the majors above 1700m IMO.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ULL temps look to improve after 9 ish IMO.
    Yep it's after the majority of the moisture but PWAT still looks reasonably charged until Sunday 4am.
    Here's Sat 10pm:

     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Mixing ratios @ 700 hPa - 10 pm. Has some reasonable bouyancy to go with it. Taking other parameters into account its shying away from a sustained period of snowfall imo.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The opinions of the various weather sources for Perisher mid-mountain.


    My personal thoughts: 2-5mm (maybe a little more), 5-15cm for Perisher.
    Buller gets 15-25mm worth of rain and sleet, 5-15cm (maybe a little more snow, rather than rain if we are lucky).
    Hotham gets 10-20mm worth of rain and sleet, 10-20cm.

    The temp drop goes, 7pm Buller, 8pm for Hotham and Falls, 10pm for the NSW resorts.

    It's not amazing. But it’s not terrible. There’s not much to lose, so probably a net gain on the whole.
     
  7. cornice11

    cornice11 One of Us

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    Needs space for 100cm predicted by the great @Gototakahashi
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Snow Blowey
    How's Dem western faces?
    Just FYI. This is AXSR.
    Period 10pm Saturday to 10pm Sunday.
     
  9. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    OCF showing about 20mm of total precip for Thredbo / Perisher on the very basic tabular info I can access (which also hasn't updated for today yet). @POW_hungry got any of those nice OCF charts for sat/sun?
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    this is OCF from @janesweather for Hotham @1650m


    And Perisher @ 1800m
     
  11. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks - forgot those meteograms are OCF in the last few days. Pretty much spot on 20mm there too.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. OCF at 3 days, EC at 7 days.
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plus this one for further reference:

    A fair bit more rain for VIC than NSW.
    Maybe a little more snow for VIC, but they look pretty similar in general.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Access-C (Vic) exemplifying the NW skid mark through Vic.
    Below is the progged precip from now until Saturday 10pm (end of the forecast window) which you could expect ~95% to be the rain before the cold air hits.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... And a virtually mirrored scenario on EC, against AXS-C (above).
     
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  16. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    What I love about these forums is getting to understand the meteorological terms;

    “Access-C (Vic) exemplifying the NW skid mark through Vic.”
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, there's no use sugar coating it...
     
  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    It looks like JB Plain to Wire Plain in the Hot ham region will be rock hopper able for XC skis. I am packing my stuff for a XC ski on Sunday. I might have a sickie and take the planks to Cresta at Mt. Buffalo on Monday too.
     
    #368 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jun 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Posted by me above...
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sorry. That's what happens you don't refresh the thread before posting :oops:
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected to develop about elevated areas above 500 metres overnight and during Saturday. Winds about the Alpine peaks are likely to reach 70 to 85 km/h with peak gusts around 115km/h.

    Winds will increase in the far west of the warning area late Friday night, then will gradually extend eastwards Saturday morning.

    Winds over Alpine areas are likely to peak during Saturday afternoon and evening.

    Winds are expected to ease over western parts of the warning area by Saturday afternoon and over central areas by Saturday evening and Alpine areas by midnight.

    Locations which may be affected include Seymour, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Kyneton, Ballarat and Falls Creek.
     
  22. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like Pro Hart kind of painting!
     

    Attached Files:

  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    whatever Sandra.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Phew! They stop at the NSW border
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    almost.

     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R says timing will be everything.


    But ASX-R now suggesting Vic resorts on the temp drop from as early as ~7pm:
    850mb temps:

    500mb temps:
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    aka normal programming. !
     
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  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A very long way from the snow
    What a mess!
     
  31. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A very long way from the snow
    This is looking to me very much like a classic Thredbo front. I have a good feeling about it, for no good reason.
     
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  33. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I predict it'll be absolutely minging tomorrow afternoon. Would actually rather be working than skiing in that tomorrow afternoon...
     
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  34. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Central Tassie looking pretty interesting...
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which way will the coin fall ???
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Put the two together and you get a solid 80mm. GFS says the temps will be on the good side for much of it - but I'm going with 2 degrees over cooked - the northern in flow of warm air is relentless. Better to be prepared for a pissy outcome than freshies on Sunday.

    Possibly the only "vibe" factor working in our "favour" is the prospect of several hundred kids at winter sports club on Sunday at 9am - and the joy any normal parent gets dumping the dear ones at the V8 in a snow storm is truly priceless.
     
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    what time do you think the machines can start working - Saturday night?
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I doubt they will. Humidity looks high as well.
    Sunday looks more real
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO Wintery Mix snow in Vic resorts by 6/6:30pm, through to NSW resorts by 7:30pm ish. Blizzard conditions, thereafter.
    18-25cm of new snow by Sunday morning IMO.
    Generally, 15-20mm of rain before then.

    Good coupling of upper/lower atmosphic temps, and good abundance of A cooling IMO.
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will snow IMO.
    Looks on track for 5-10mm and 5-15cm for Thredbo still.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think this below quote from last night (with some slight changes) largely holds true in my opinion, given today’s updates IMO.

    The key if you are skiing/going up tomorrow is that it will be raining all day in the Victorian resorts.
    But it won’t really start raining (a shower or two is likely though) until late afternoon in the NSW resorts.

    It is probably good to emphasise the cold afterwards with 800-1000m snow levels possible on Sunday morning, so a few cms around the hills is very possible.

    The other important thing to note is it will be blustery with blizzard conditions likely.

    We are talking winds of up to ~110kph in gusts. The Vic BOM are talking 50-80kph in consistent winds for the resorts.
    Windhold for open lifts is very likely.
    Obviously reconsider backcountry travel until later on Sunday.
     
  43. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    And all that wind will result in much needed drifts filling in all those off piste holes.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Timings looking earlier on EC tonight. Looks more aligned with GFS & AXS-R.
    I think snow from ~7pm for the upper reaches of NSW resorts in light of that.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Main moisture band then as well.
    Mind you AXS-R gets some decent orographic love for NSW early hours of sunday.
    I see potential thunda -SNOW as well !
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That 7/8mm of snow per hour is off the flippin' hook. That's all upper level divergence/Vort, right there.

    Largely snow above 1300/1400m by that stage.


     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's going to come harder than......

    Insert flippant pornhub reference.

    IMO
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s looks absolutely stacked for an hour in there. South Perisher cam will be straw overload. Wouldn’t want to be walking about then.
     
  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I reckon a foot. (actually 32cm)

    However perisher will report 20cm

    Then forum regulars will report 40cm.

    Mid station will be three poweades.

    IMO