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Predictions June 28 - July 4 Mining For White Gold

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think 15-20cm is probably the mark personally, but pushing to the higher values this update.
    The heavy stuff in the precipitation band moves fairly quick, the early timing should add an additional 5cm.
    Perisher on the whole gets the benefit of very little rain.
    But hey, I’d be happy to be proven wrong :)
     
    Ramshead and Claude Cat like this.
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the look of this.
    It's from this morning. Obviously the time stamp allows us to look at it more clearly.
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That sort of elongated prog is absolutely prime for Orographic lift and Lee snow.
    Throw in some decent instability in the witching hour Sunday..
    Plus wind.... So much wind
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I assume it’s AXS-R. I’m not a big fan IMO, with a heavy precipitation bias.
    It’s temps forecasts are better.
    But each to their own.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't reckon it's got the duration for a foot but 'eh, let those 'forecasters' of 2 weeks ago have it aye.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I prefer AXSR
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There isn’t exactly much choice in the straya mesoscale department.
    EC is really the only other quality contender and it’s of course a global model.
    I don’t discount it, but I use it with reasonable caution IMO.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C (comparable to R) is the tits @4 km Res.
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Suffers from the same problems IMO, only refines the resolution.
    It would be cool if it worked like HRRR. It’s a great concept.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome to Australia.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    One of the biggest DGZ values I've ever seen out the progs over the alps.
    120-150mb dendritic growth at around 9/10pm in the resorts is an spectacle for Aus.

    GFS, Hotham 10pm:


    EC progging around 140mb growth which is farkin' solid gold for Aus snow regions. Albeit with a mid-level vacancy, by comparison to GFS.
    EC, Hotham 10pm:


    It would be a fantastic sight to see this come off in Aus, even if it's only for an hour or so tomorrow night.
    Flakes the size of Jatz crackers would've been a possibility if it wasn't for the wind.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If only it wasn't so windy..
    Would be carpeting down with fifty cent coins
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lols. I just edited that post as you posted that.
    Jatz farkin' crackers.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We'll just have to settle for snow-plastering snowfall ~10pm.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid - 9pm and 10pm Sat.
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It predicts more precip because finer grid allows better topographic model. So it's better at predicting oragraphic effects imo. You just need to keep in that main more precip falls out on the west side of the range than at Thredbo and perisher so may appear to overstate what we see in those resorts.
     
    #418 Snow Blowey, Jun 29, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
    Belly likes this.
  19. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Some serious winds there! I wonder if it's time for BOM to issue backcountry advisories as is done for Tassie. I mean it's all very well warning of the dangers to sheep but surely be people safety should come first in BOMs planning?
     
    Dave Clark likes this.
  20. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you know it’s bad for sheep then one should have enough common sense to know it’s even worse fir humans up the hill somewhere?
    Weather is chopping up in Melb now!
    “Sheep need to check the guys ropes and tent pegs immediately and perhaps head for slightly higher ground”The wind she is a winding up now!
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  21. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM now forecasting potential storms tonight... that could be interesting.
     
  22. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Things are filling in So to speak this morning!
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its not just about grid size. Mean Orography representation varies between Models with the same resolution. Different sub grid surface stress representation also exists. The methods of Assimilating and coupling the chosen data brings risk of various biases. ECMWF uses a Turbulent Orographic Form Drag Parameter - other models use an implicit method by artificialy enhancing surface roughness.
     
  24. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    I note current models seem to really struggle with the 'fairly complex' topography and aspects in southern/central Vic hills. Perhaps more so than around the high Snowies?

    Buller and the smaller hills sometimes disappoint when snow is predicted, yet on the flip side Baw Baw in particular can unexpected deliver quite impressive snowfalls - possibly double the forecast.

    Must Make for a fun time forecasting down here - it's certainly 'fun' determining if it's worth heading up for a day - often at the last minute. ( ;-l)
     
    OuterLimits likes this.