A fairly weak system, not that cold will come though this weekend IMO Has potential to deliver snow above 2000m initially, lowering to perhaps 1600m later.
To me that period looks just a couple of degrees too warm. Hopefully as we get closer to date things may improve?
ensembles say SAM is going neg around this time so might get some more penetration from frontal systems. Maybe drag some more cold air with them and continue to the transition of seasons?
This sort of only makes sense if there are cool air uppers that may be cold enough to snow / snot. The cool air is what is leading to the formation of inland trough that develops in to cutoff low. Looks promising, but unique. You do get snow from these systems and a bit of rain. More of a snot system. Good for the Main range though.
Looks peaking a little early and sliding IMO, what cold air there is won't be a direct hit. fits with CC's 1600m+ suggestion.
Talk about wracked Jet Stream. Hence, I think we will see snow coming back from east Saturday Morning, than West Sunday night
The uppers don't appear to be that cold, even though the 850 levels are moderately useful. Hard to get a gauge on what level we'll see snow. IMO
My interpretation is that the jet stream splitting like above (forecast), leads to the formation of a boundary layer trapping he cool pool between 30 to 45 degrees South. It is sort of cutoff between the polar and equatorial air. I am getting excited because it is getting closer to the 22 June, so there is not much to warm up the isolated air. Its like a Cool Pool.
I love how these systems just sort of develop. it makes up for the systems that look big 4 days out and just fizz (like last Saturday).
To be fair the models showed saturdays system heading north (and missing the alps) a long way out. Just looked really good on the satellite pic as it approached and we were in denial it would head north like it did - and was predicted to.
Yep, but four days out it looked good. But you could see the air moving north as well, but I wanted to believe something else. . Saturday was connected to the formation of the split jet stream, which seems to persist till next Saturday. Its different IMO.
That system looked a lot better 7 days out. The models had the intensity about right 4 days out. Anyway, this is getting off topic. This date range still has a wide divergence in the models and we're in the 144-156 hours range!
This system started off looking terrible, then just bad, then a bit of pre-frontal clear snow with a dusting afterwoods to what it is now which is 'maybe 10-15cm' in it IMO. Hopefully this trend continues.
WTF is going on at weatherzone lately. Chart updates getting later and later each day. Or is a problem at the data providers end? I know there are other sources but i like their interface.
I just noticed the ocean forecast from seabreeze of Sunday 5th for point perpendicular, 43knot NE'r and 7m swell. Could that be right? What on those charts is causing this? (not snow related I know but still weather in the time frame)
Thats why this whole chart is strange. A sustained NNE fetch all that way from New Caledonia to 50 S. This is weird to get such a large fetch 30 degrees with NNE winds in the Southern Hemisphere. Something odd is happening in the models or with the climate. Its hard to belive this forecast at the moment as it is really really wack, but there is evidence like the split jet stream. I would be issuing a Coastal Erosion Hazard warning. Its a sand transport event. There is something going on. Fully
Wandering cutoff looks too warm. At resort level. Bit of liquid stuff, bit of snotty stuff. More liquid stuff. Net loss IMO.
GFS still not looking as good as EC. I'm kind of betting GFS tomorrow will look like EC does today, and you'll get a different picture. Of course EC will change one way or another too!
GFS showing that cold pool (although it's not super cold) Still thinking this is good for 10cm 1800m & above.
I'm still sticking with my 10-15cm call. This event looks like it will start on Friday and go through to Tuesday. Light snow above 1700m throughout this period IMO.
I'm going for 0 at this stage. BOM maps have nothing much at all for this period and they have been very good for the last two. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see it.
At Perisher/Thredbo that seemed to be the case last year for most of these moderate light systems. Only Barry really pissed down.
Its kind of looking like a cutoff, but moisture may move north again though. This system might even drag the next system in behind.
The Bom 7 Day is showing the second phase slipping South (Sunday to Monday). The first stage is moving east north east (Friday to Saturday)... Looks good for some high level wet snow, IMO.
As long as it keeps heading north and cooling down the air and earth to the North West, that will only help for later on and maybe when that La Nina moisture starts heading south later on, it will be pre cooled before hitting the mountains.
The 700 Hpa's temps look good for Saturday. Moisture starting to converge over south east. Very coastal after inland trough moves through on Friday. Definitely could be good for up high above 1800m. Its a bit hard to get excited about Sunday though.
so Saturday ....what r the odds for rainfall in Falls/Hotham to wash existing snow away... BOM seem to be predicting a rain event below 1800m 2 to 15mm 70% Rain no mention of snow......????
