Predictions June 4-7th June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.

  1. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    They have a problem.
     
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  2. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So maybe not so new haha. 2005 did some decent damage considering the core appears to remain onshore until hitting Bass Strait?

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC 00Z run. Sadly we only get the 24 hour snapshots, so hard to follow the progression.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Anyway, starting to line up with GFS.
     
  5. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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  6. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    The only E.C.L. I see is off the coast of Cairns and that disappears pretty quickly. If it hangs around we might get a June cyclone.
     
  7. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm, NSW BOM going for 20-60 mm rain for Thredbo Top Station on Sunday :(
     
  8. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yep it is very confusus

    BOM Access G is not having anything to do with it after Saturday.

    GFS and EC kind of like it from Sunday. It just goes to Show that all three models are very different.

    Looks most likely to snow tonight.
     
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  10. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Still have tomatoes in the garden and the apple tree hasn't dropped its leaves yet. Should turn to winter about June 21st. I live in Hallam, south east suburbs of Melb.
     
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  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Progression at the back end of date range still looks a bit unrealistic imo
     
  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems normal to me.
     
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  13. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    I would like to know where mountainwatch is getting their weather information from. 6th and 7th are calling 36cm for Falls with negative minimums, whereas weatherzone is forecasting positive temps with no snow. Looks like a rain event to me. Weathergurus please explain??
     
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  14. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    60mm for Thredbo will have the Trout Fishers stoked for the spawn run. Not all bad.
     
  15. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Maybe the marketing departments have picked up forecasting?

    Off topic I know.. sorry :(
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think its Model poker time. WTF is going on. Is there some type numerical chaos theory going on at the moment.

    NCEP 500 Hpa Ensembles going all in.

    [​IMG]


    BOM ACCESS G going all out.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Swings and roundabouts. So much variation between each run. Too hard to call IMO
     
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  18. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    To me its been the same general pattern for days. Noreaster with long wet tail back to warmer than usual Coral Sea with some very unexciting cooler air late in the period. The model flip flops to me have not been about balance between cold/warm, its been about the position of the intense wet noreaster being tough to determine. Small changes lead to big differences in potential for precip at a given location with follow on effect on timing/strength of trailing cool air.
     
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is looking much better:
    [​IMG]
    And a nice follow up front probably 4-5 days later (8 oclock).
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  21. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    Advice to us at SES is worst is on the coast but alps will see decent but not flooding rain.
    At least there's nothing really to wash away but snow making.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This is a mental event and some models are hinting at a cutoff cold/cool pool.

    I dug up this reserach paper about the 1900 snowfall event from a similar system (maybe) that produced the largest snow falls on the record, outside of Alps. 70 cm falling in Bathurst. Sort of describes the ideal trough to ECL. Good read, see page 6.

    http://www.australianweathernews.com/snow/Shepherd_Snowstorm_5_July_1900.pdf
     
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  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There was that weird snow event in Aug 2014 - that was an upper level 24 hours dump at 1700m+ - it was absolute porridge slop on impact - but better than a rain deluge - from memory there was only one more snow event after that in season 2014 - the tail end of a three day wind storm that finally turned to super cold snow for a few hours - albeit in the middle of the day with most of the Perisher on wind hold.
     
  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    That rainfall is off the tropical chart! lol
     
  25. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was there for that tail end event. 10cm of fresh overnight and another 10 that afternoon. Front Valley turned into a huge block of ice.
     
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please proceed to Merimbula river mouth for freight train 8 to 10 ft ers monday/Tuesday.
     
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  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest run is painting a very bleak picture indeed (IMO). Large number of days with +ve temps.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a whole lot of moisture over the mountain s in any case
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never really saw anything good in this. And I'm a novice who sees the positive in pretty much model/chart ever produced.
     
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  30. vibe++

    vibe++ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thats my neck of the woods I'll see if i can get some pics if it happens
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has got bucket loads. Sadly warmer by their run. IMO
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold pool was never that significant to begin with was it?
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's a matter for where it travels.
     
  34. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    So Thredbo was on the money in regards to holding fire with the snow making it looks.
     
  35. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If they are it is really nothing more than a guess on their part, that far out.
     
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  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better than guessing at 30-40cm in the next 3-4 days.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS shows how much weaker the cold pool is



    Plenty of moisture though, mountains not missing out either.

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This was never going to be a system for much below 1800m - where snowmaking is needed.
    Sadly it's going to be much higher than even that.
     
  39. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    A major flood event for the East coast.
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks that way.
     
  41. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blardy dry here, we need rain but cold would be good too.
    Looks like v good rain for upper Blue Mtns this w/e.
     
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  42. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like Cooma rivers and creeks could flood with those total. At least we have interesting weather. Not so good for my 6yo birthday party saturday.
     
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  43. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    I was at Thredbo one time and same sort of system rained all morning and copped about 40 cms in the village by 5.00 was awesome
     
  44. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dry as down in the lower BM's. This will set up the soil moisture nicely for most of the rest of Winter if it comes off.
     
  45. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    BOOYAH looks like whitewater kayaking time for the south coast - and on a Sunday too no excuses. Haven't paddled the upper Kangaroo in a while - I generally look for around 80mm at the Robertson gauge.

    Shoalhaven and Murrumbidgee will be in for a week or so as well. Maybe even the Wingee/Wollondilly.
     
  46. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    I'm calling 80cm
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a lot of rain!
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Predictions - no obs here please!
     
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    What the banks are sh1t, plus its NE swell. Plus its got a long point.:doh:

    [​IMG]
     
    #149 7wombathead, Jun 2, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2016
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    500 HPA ensembles still looking good. But I am not sure how its is calibrated.

    Bom potential looks good to apart from Saturday/ Sunday. Maybe a major Coastal Rainfall Event is likely, but where. Looks like the whole east coast at the moment.



    [​IMG]