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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.
They have a problem.
So maybe not so new haha. 2005 did some decent damage considering the core appears to remain onshore until hitting Bass Strait?
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
EC 00Z run. Sadly we only get the 24 hour snapshots, so hard to follow the progression.
Anyway, starting to line up with GFS.
Weekend looks grim according to the BOM's update http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
The only E.C.L. I see is off the coast of Cairns and that disappears pretty quickly. If it hangs around we might get a June cyclone.
Hmmm, NSW BOM going for 20-60 mm rain for Thredbo Top Station on Sunday
Thankyou, have been saying that all week.
Yep it is very confusus
BOM Access G is not having anything to do with it after Saturday.
GFS and EC kind of like it from Sunday. It just goes to Show that all three models are very different.
Looks most likely to snow tonight.
Still have tomatoes in the garden and the apple tree hasn't dropped its leaves yet. Should turn to winter about June 21st. I live in Hallam, south east suburbs of Melb.
Progression at the back end of date range still looks a bit unrealistic imo
Seems normal to me.
I would like to know where mountainwatch is getting their weather information from. 6th and 7th are calling 36cm for Falls with negative minimums, whereas weatherzone is forecasting positive temps with no snow. Looks like a rain event to me. Weathergurus please explain??
60mm for Thredbo will have the Trout Fishers stoked for the spawn run. Not all bad.
Maybe the marketing departments have picked up forecasting?
Off topic I know.. sorry
I think its Model poker time. WTF is going on. Is there some type numerical chaos theory going on at the moment.
NCEP 500 Hpa Ensembles going all in.
BOM ACCESS G going all out.
Swings and roundabouts. So much variation between each run. Too hard to call IMO
To me its been the same general pattern for days. Noreaster with long wet tail back to warmer than usual Coral Sea with some very unexciting cooler air late in the period. The model flip flops to me have not been about balance between cold/warm, its been about the position of the intense wet noreaster being tough to determine. Small changes lead to big differences in potential for precip at a given location with follow on effect on timing/strength of trailing cool air.
This is looking much better:
And a nice follow up front probably 4-5 days later (8 oclock).
Advice to us at SES is worst is on the coast but alps will see decent but not flooding rain.
At least there's nothing really to wash away but snow making.
This is a mental event and some models are hinting at a cutoff cold/cool pool.
I dug up this reserach paper about the 1900 snowfall event from a similar system (maybe) that produced the largest snow falls on the record, outside of Alps. 70 cm falling in Bathurst. Sort of describes the ideal trough to ECL. Good read, see page 6.
There was that weird snow event in Aug 2014 - that was an upper level 24 hours dump at 1700m+ - it was absolute porridge slop on impact - but better than a rain deluge - from memory there was only one more snow event after that in season 2014 - the tail end of a three day wind storm that finally turned to super cold snow for a few hours - albeit in the middle of the day with most of the Perisher on wind hold.
That rainfall is off the tropical chart! lol
I was there for that tail end event. 10cm of fresh overnight and another 10 that afternoon. Front Valley turned into a huge block of ice.
Please proceed to Merimbula river mouth for freight train 8 to 10 ft ers monday/Tuesday.
Latest run is painting a very bleak picture indeed (IMO). Large number of days with +ve temps.
Not a whole lot of moisture over the mountain s in any case
Never really saw anything good in this. And I'm a novice who sees the positive in pretty much model/chart ever produced.
Thats my neck of the woods I'll see if i can get some pics if it happens
EC has got bucket loads. Sadly warmer by their run. IMO
Cold pool was never that significant to begin with was it?
It's a matter for where it travels.
So Thredbo was on the money in regards to holding fire with the snow making it looks.
If they are it is really nothing more than a guess on their part, that far out.
Better than guessing at 30-40cm in the next 3-4 days.
Latest GFS shows how much weaker the cold pool is
Plenty of moisture though, mountains not missing out either.
This was never going to be a system for much below 1800m - where snowmaking is needed.
Sadly it's going to be much higher than even that.
A major flood event for the East coast.
Looks that way.
Blardy dry here, we need rain but cold would be good too.
Looks like v good rain for upper Blue Mtns this w/e.
Looks like Cooma rivers and creeks could flood with those total. At least we have interesting weather. Not so good for my 6yo birthday party saturday.
I was at Thredbo one time and same sort of system rained all morning and copped about 40 cms in the village by 5.00 was awesome
Dry as down in the lower BM's. This will set up the soil moisture nicely for most of the rest of Winter if it comes off.
BOOYAH looks like whitewater kayaking time for the south coast - and on a Sunday too no excuses. Haven't paddled the upper Kangaroo in a while - I generally look for around 80mm at the Robertson gauge.
Shoalhaven and Murrumbidgee will be in for a week or so as well. Maybe even the Wingee/Wollondilly.
I'm calling 80cm
That's a lot of rain!
Predictions - no obs here please!
What the banks are sh1t, plus its NE swell. Plus its got a long point.
500 HPA ensembles still looking good. But I am not sure how its is calibrated.
Bom potential looks good to apart from Saturday/ Sunday. Maybe a major Coastal Rainfall Event is likely, but where. Looks like the whole east coast at the moment.