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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.
Access G showing 150mm plus over alps Sun-Tues.
Time to get the fire wood in the house and brace for the storm I think.
I was giving everyone my mountainwatch prediction....
Oh to be around to witness that!! Would be a fascinating drive from Sydney
Does not look Cold enough, but maybe.
This is the Donza event. See charts attached.
-16 c temps at 700 hpa. Thats like Niseko, with a bombing ECL.
Did that yesterday. Could be another Pasha Bulka style weekend with no power for 2 days and cooking on the Slow Combustion
Yeah but how many powerade bottles high at the sheltered tables at Perisher mid-load? That's the real question.
IMO I see little but rain for Saturday and Sunday.
If you watch the cold pool transition on Monday, you can see it's probably too far to the north to help
I wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the high parts around Bathurst (Monday afternoon) though.
Thats is some serious COLD air injection.
BOM access G is not seeing that.
BOM Access G is a bit more deterministic and a I bet GFS is working off the ensembles. I am going all in with the ensembles.
Access is showing a slightly different picture.
I dunno either. GFS has upgraded IMO. It seems there must be lots of different versions of GFS going around at the moment
apparently spag looks better this afternoon. Dont know how to post it though
No, there's only one GFS.
But there are 4 runs per day.
There's only 2 publicly available EC runs, Access, dunno. Perhaps 2 as well?
I was thinking it had upgraded. Its gone all funny now. Can post later.
So what is James McGregor using to plot this? Cheers
Looks entirely consistent as elsewhere
And consistent with the T TB GFS plot you had above.
EC isn't quite the same as GFS - two lows instead of one
Cold pool is a little different.
I can't work out how to post a pic. I suppose at 60 something years old that's understandable. Still love my weather and have done for 60 years.
really easy - see that row of 3 buttons beneath the reply box - the middle one next to post reply - says "upload a file" press that and navigate to the dir where the pix is you want to upload. best to avoid massive images - I scale down to 1000 pixels wide or such.
He's not a paying member. Doesn't get upload.
Duh ... - pay up or the kitty cat gets it.
Looks like yr.no has updated and it sure ain't no season starter.
Right click on image or synoptic chart that you are looking in your browser, than select "Copy image address".
Go into post reply in ski com and click on mountain picture to the right of the smile face in the tool box above the message.
Right click on image URL and select paste, hit enter and your away.
4th to 7th.
4th Chance of Snow. Rain developing.
5th Looks Wet
6th Snow forming.
7th Rain developing.
Confidence of snow on ground post front. Low.
That porridge slop skied lovely. #1 son and I had a hoot of a day skiing PB smooth gloop mountain.
doesnt look too bad above 1700m for perisher on the back end.
Didn't know about any " Payed Membership "
Stay on topic please
Yr no. Showing 30cm. They are well overdue to get it right
Perhaps a possibility on Monday. Cold pool a little better positioned on this morning's run.
Interesting how GFS always looks like the previous nights EC run (see above)
EC this morning for same period + 12 hours
Wet snow at 2000+m for this system. All man made washed away at resort levels IMO. Has not changed much in last 24 hours.
If we can get close to that then peaks will be set for the season. I expect more than 150mm. so if we can get 50 cm of snot. That would be net gain from perspective.
But it looks like if will be mostly be rain. Follow up from Monday looks good onward.
Thats a big flood event for Bega.
EC seems to further develop the cool pool at 96 hrs.
Take totals with grain of salt; I'd expect it to be more distributed than that.
Tuross Falls will be worth a photo after that. I don't think the drive along the Deua will be much fun.
8 day totals from the BOM (so this includes the following event)
Copped 40 - 80cm around Crookwell last July. In town the snow was knee deep, as you headed out to Laggan & Roslyn it got deeper. The carnage of broken trees from snow loads is still visible from Oberon to Bathurst to here.
If the cold air pool is over here again then it may happen again. Tho last July the moisture feed came off the coast and headed up from Batemans Bay. Started at 4pm in the arvo and went till about 4am the next morning. The next 2 days were very cold so the snow froze and lasted a few weeks. Most of the houses in town needed their guttering replaced.
My dad has just had a hip replacement a couple of days ago and he was going to go to our place at Wonboyn to recover as there are no stairs. Might be a bit soggy.
QLD is going to get hit too.
Good to see East Gippsland will get their share, missed out on the May rains.
Light showers here in Brisbane but tomorrow is the big one. Up to 250mm possible.
can you imagine if the cold pool sat right over the alps in time for all that moisture....wow