Somewhere is going to cop it thats for sure. I think the 500 hpas will direct it to its target. It looks like la nina. Its so elongated the rain band, that worries me. Its what did Brisbane in 2011. So much fetch.
Looking at that and applying the 4 day rule Tuesday has enough in it to get @Normo clocking up the vm on cue.
This is a dartboard job. We have the Cold pool at 500mb but we have 2 troughs and a surface low all fighting for energy so where it ends up, is anybody’s guess at the moment. Whoever is lucky enough to cop the cold pool with the moisture will win the snow prize, everywhere is will just get wet IMO. The longer the Low can stall in the Bass Strait towards the end of the system will be the most important for the ALPS. We desperately need a solid cold injection and the longer we can have the low stall in Bass, the better we will be IMO
BoM are already issuing alerts in QLD http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-...flooding-wind-gusts-to-hit-queensland/7473248
The first of many right up the eastern seaboard I expect. TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF For people in the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:59 am Friday, 3 June 2016. Synoptic Situation: A strong upper trough will move east into the southern interior of Queensland today, shifting into southeast Queensland on Saturday, before moving off the southern coast during Sunday. A surface trough will deepen near the Capricornia or Wide Bay coast during Saturday, with a low pressure system possibly developing and slipping southwards over southern Queensland waters during Saturday and most likely moving offshore or into New South Wales late Saturday. A moist easterly wind flow to the south of the surface trough is expected to combine with the upper feature to generate heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, over areas southeast of about Hervey Bay to Toowoomba to Warwick on Saturday. 24 hour totals of 30 to 150mm are likely over inland parts, with falls in excess of 250mm possible nearer to the coast and ranges. The heavy rain areas should start contracting southeast during Saturday morning as the trough shifts southwards, easing around Brisbane from mid-afternoon, and easing around the Gold Coast during Saturday evening. Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 90km/h, are possible in coastal areas and about the Scenic Rim near and south of the surface trough on Saturday. The trough or low will also generate large swells as it slips southwards during Saturday, with dangerous surf conditions and significant beach erosion developing about exposed beaches between Fraser Island and the Gold Coast during Saturday morning, contracting southwards out of the Fraser Coast and Sunshine Coast waters during Saturday afternoon. Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about exposed beaches between Fraser Island and the Gold coast on Saturday and Sunday, particularly on the high tide Saturday night and Sunday morning. Locally heavy falls are also possible today and early tomorrow over parts of the central and southern interior though are more likely to be associated with thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm warnings will be issued as necessary. A Flood Watch is current for southeast Queensland from Fraser Island to the NSW-QLD border extending inland to include the Upper Condamine, Dumaresq and Macintyre Rivers. Locations which may be affected include Hervey Bay, Warwick, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Brisbane, Maroochydore, Gympie, Stanthorpe and Caboolture.
EVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DAMAGING SURF For people in the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Southern Tablelands and North West Slopes and Plains Forecast Districts. Issued at 12:19 pm Friday, 3 June 2016. SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN NEW SOUTH WALES An east coast low is forecast to develop off the southern Queensland or northern New South Wales coast late Saturday, and then expected to move southward on Sunday. DAMAGING WINDS from the NORTHEAST, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible from Saturday afternoon through to Sunday along much of the coast. Winds are expected to ease and turn northwesterly in the far north early Sunday. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the north Saturday afternoon and over the remainder late Saturday or Sunday. Weekend rainfall totals of 80 to 150 mm are likely for much of the area with localised falls between 200 to 300 mm. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas are possible. Water levels will exceed the highest tide of the year during Saturday and Sunday evenings' and Sunday morning's high tides. VERY HEAVY SURF which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is likely. Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree, Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, Nowra, Batemans Bay, Armidale, Goulburn and Tamworth. FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTH EAST INLAND RIVER VALLEYS Issued at 1:35 pm EST on Friday 3 June 2016 [reissue] Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice for possible future flooding along all rivers, creeks and overland flow paths within a nominated valley [See note below]. An East Coast Low is forecast to develop off the coast near the New South Wales - Queensland border late on Saturday. The East Coast Low is expected to bring heavy rainfall to North East inland NSW and the NSW coast. In addition, King Tides will add to the risk of flooding in lower tidal areas. The East Coast Low is expected to move southwards during Sunday and Monday. This forecast rainfall and high tides have the potential to cause flooding as well as local flash flooding from Saturday and into Sunday and Monday as the weather system moves South. The Flood Watch includes the following river valleys. 1. Upper Macintyre - minor to moderate flooding 2. Gwydir - minor flooding 3. Castlereagh - minor to moderate flooding 4. Macquarie to Bathurst - moderate flooding 5. Tweed - minor to moderate flooding 6. Brunswick - minor to moderate flooding 7. Wilsons - moderate flooding 8. Richmond - minor to moderate flooding 9. Clarence including Orara - moderate flooding 10. Coffs Harbour - minor flooding 11. Bellinger and Kalang - moderate flooding 12. Nambucca - minor to moderate flooding 13. Macleay - minor flooding 14. Hastings - minor to moderate flooding 15. Camden Haven - minor flooding 16. Manning - minor flooding 17. Myall River including Bulahdelah and Wallis Lake - minor flooding 18. Hunter including Paterson Williams - minor flooding 19. Wyong - Tuggerah Lake - minor flooding 20. Nepean Hawkesbury - minor to moderate flooding 21. Georges River including Woronora - minor flooding 22. Cooks River - minor flooding 23. Shoalhaven - minor flooding 24. St Georges Basin - minor flooding 25. Moruya - minor to moderate flooding 26. Bega - minor to moderate flooding
Thankyou, new nothing about it. And for Astro66 how do you know I'm he. I wonder what the Glen bit stands for.
Nearly all rain , mostly coastal , could be some large totals , maybe. ECL could easily slip away from the coast like many do.
Minor to moderate flooding for the Nepean-Hawkesbury. That could be fun. Warragamba at 86% though, so not much chance of it topping out.
Depends on the dams upstream of Warragamba. Most of them are sitting around the 80% mark so it would need to be a follow up event of similar magnitude to see major flooding on the Nepean IMO. Then again its not 100% clear just how much rain is going to fall so i wouldnt rule out Warragamba spilling just yet!
'The x, the wife, the mother-in-law'- I predict moisture! Wanting the low to drop its goodness over the Snowy River Basin for some flood runs (paddling).
Flood Watch for East Gippsland (Mitchell, Tambo, Snowy, Cann and Genoa Rivers and Gippsland Lakes) Issued at 4:07 pm EST on Friday 3 June 2016 A complex low pressure system will deepen off the New South Wales Coast during Saturday and will extend into East Gippsland over the weekend. Rain and possible thunderstorms are expected to develop across East Gippsland on Saturday and will persist overnight and through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm with isolated higher totals are expected during Saturday. Further rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm with isolated higher totals are expected during Sunday. Significant stream rises are expected with areas of minor to moderate flooding likely to develop during Sunday particularly in the Snowy, Cann and Genoa catchments. No flooding is expected in the Gippsland Lakes.
7M swell predicted for Cenco on Sunday arvo so it will be one to watch. Might not be much left of Ettalong Beach In Umina once this one is finished.
IMO,this system is shaping up to be a mean mother of a flooding rain event. A drought breaker for the east coast but also some serious flood damage. Possible wet snow on the highest peaks. The following system is looking like a champion snow bearer just in time for the opening w/e.
Bit of push and shove going on with Highs & Lows. I've always watched weather maps with my surfing but never as much as now with my new location and proximity to the snow. Having said that I've never seen so many Highs and Lows on one Australasian region forecast map.. Nutzso.. ??
Its a good looking weather map. Its nice to see central QLD getting some good rain looking at the radar all day. Let the games begin
The swell will be coming from the NE so it won't even touch that side of broken bay, it'll push down into Pittwater
It's been a while since I've seen such a complex weather map that's for sure. We have not had a system like this for a long time.
BoM (Snowies) for the period Saturday 4 June Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds easterly 20 to 30 km/h turning northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon and evening. No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low] Chance of snow 20% at 1800m 0% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Sunday 5 June Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h turning easterly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning. Chance of snow 10% at 1800m 0% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Monday 6 June Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Winds northeast to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Chance of snow Below 5% at 1800m 0% at 1400m 0% at 1000m Tuesday 7 June Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1800 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of snow 30% at 1800m Below 5% at 1400m 0% at 1000m
You would be surprised. Box Head draws it in pretty well. King tide, stacks of water pushing out of Brisbane Waters and the Haweksbury with a 7m swell pushing in. Not much beach left down there to start with. ECL'S seem to hammer broken bay and close it out as far out as Lion Island across to Box.
CC, what's the gut feeling on Mondays cold pool? The more I look, the more I am thinking we might get lucky and it tracks across the Alps. If we can get the timing just right and the low stalls in Bass for long enough for the tail to wrap back around and link in with the cold pool as it passes then it could be good for a quick 20cm smash and grab before it heads off to NZ.
Really hard to call. Right now, we might get lucky and see snow down to 1800m perhaps even 1600m, but I think it will keep us guessing right to the end. IMO
It's addictive huh! No big rises or flooding yet in NSW rivers, still a lot of red lights here http://www.waterwaysguide.org.au/river-levels but I expext to see a lot of green, purple and black before Monday.
Looking at today's charts, it looks like it'll run out of juice and warm up too much. I think the models are underestimating the influence of the tropical moisture inflow, especially with a shallow shear through the atmosphere and such a large 'feed'. In any case, -24C as a max for a tiny cold pool is way too sketchy to put any money on. Try hitting a dart board from 20m away after 10 cans kind of accuracy. 10th and 12th look so much better.
Think of it this way. The railway that runs along Mullet Creek just to the North of Dangar is about 1m above high tide level so the railway will go under before there is much to worry about and the railway has not gone under as far back as I can remember.
