Predictions June 4-7th June System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 30, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Somewhere is going to cop it thats for sure. I think the 500 hpas will direct it to its target.

    It looks like la nina.

    Its so elongated the rain band, that worries me. Its what did Brisbane in 2011. So much fetch.
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Looking at that and applying the 4 day rule Tuesday has enough in it to get @Normo clocking up the vm on cue.
     
  4. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    This is a dartboard job. We have the Cold pool at 500mb but we have 2 troughs and a surface low all fighting for energy so where it ends up, is anybody’s guess at the moment.

    Whoever is lucky enough to cop the cold pool with the moisture will win the snow prize, everywhere is will just get wet IMO.

    The longer the Low can stall in the Bass Strait towards the end of the system will be the most important for the ALPS. We desperately need a solid cold injection and the longer we can have the low stall in Bass, the better we will be IMO
     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  7. mr muddle

    mr muddle New Member

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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The first of many right up the eastern seaboard I expect.

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF
    For people in the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:59 am Friday, 3 June 2016.

    Synoptic Situation:

    A strong upper trough will move east into the southern interior of Queensland today, shifting into southeast Queensland on Saturday, before moving off the southern coast during Sunday.

    A surface trough will deepen near the Capricornia or Wide Bay coast during Saturday, with a low pressure system possibly developing and slipping southwards over southern Queensland waters during Saturday and most likely moving offshore or into New South Wales late Saturday.

    A moist easterly wind flow to the south of the surface trough is expected to combine with the upper feature to generate heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, over areas southeast of about Hervey Bay to Toowoomba to Warwick on Saturday. 24 hour totals of 30 to 150mm are likely over inland parts, with falls in excess of 250mm possible nearer to the coast and ranges.

    The heavy rain areas should start contracting southeast during Saturday morning as the trough shifts southwards, easing around Brisbane from mid-afternoon, and easing around the Gold Coast during Saturday evening.

    Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 90km/h, are possible in coastal areas and about the Scenic Rim near and south of the surface trough on Saturday.

    The trough or low will also generate large swells as it slips southwards during Saturday, with dangerous surf conditions and significant beach erosion developing about exposed beaches between Fraser Island and the Gold Coast during Saturday morning, contracting southwards out of the Fraser Coast and Sunshine Coast waters during Saturday afternoon.

    Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about exposed beaches between Fraser Island and the Gold coast on Saturday and Sunday, particularly on the high tide Saturday night and Sunday morning.

    Locally heavy falls are also possible today and early tomorrow over parts of the central and southern interior though are more likely to be associated with thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm warnings will be issued as necessary.

    A Flood Watch is current for southeast Queensland from Fraser Island to the NSW-QLD border extending inland to include the Upper Condamine, Dumaresq and Macintyre Rivers.

    Locations which may be affected include Hervey Bay, Warwick, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Brisbane, Maroochydore, Gympie, Stanthorpe and Caboolture.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DAMAGING SURF
    For people in the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Southern Tablelands and North West Slopes and Plains Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 12:19 pm Friday, 3 June 2016.

    SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN NEW SOUTH WALES

    An east coast low is forecast to develop off the southern Queensland or northern New South Wales coast late Saturday, and then expected to move southward on Sunday.

    DAMAGING WINDS from the NORTHEAST, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible from Saturday afternoon through to Sunday along much of the coast.

    Winds are expected to ease and turn northwesterly in the far north early Sunday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the north Saturday afternoon and over the remainder late Saturday or Sunday.

    Weekend rainfall totals of 80 to 150 mm are likely for much of the area with localised falls between 200 to 300 mm.

    ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas are possible.

    Water levels will exceed the highest tide of the year during Saturday and Sunday evenings' and Sunday morning's high tides.

    VERY HEAVY SURF which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is likely.

    Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

    Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree, Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, Nowra, Batemans Bay, Armidale, Goulburn and Tamworth.

    [​IMG]


    FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTH EAST INLAND RIVER VALLEYS


    Issued at 1:35 pm EST on Friday 3 June 2016

    [reissue] Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice for possible future flooding along all rivers, creeks and overland flow paths within a nominated valley [See note below].

    An East Coast Low is forecast to develop off the coast near the New South Wales - Queensland border late on Saturday. The East Coast Low is expected to bring heavy rainfall to North East inland NSW and the NSW coast. In addition, King Tides will add to the risk of flooding in lower tidal areas. The East Coast Low is expected to move southwards during Sunday and Monday.

    This forecast rainfall and high tides have the potential to cause flooding as well as local flash flooding from Saturday and into Sunday and Monday as the weather system moves South. The Flood Watch includes the following river valleys.

    1. Upper Macintyre - minor to moderate flooding

    2. Gwydir - minor flooding

    3. Castlereagh - minor to moderate flooding

    4. Macquarie to Bathurst - moderate flooding

    5. Tweed - minor to moderate flooding

    6. Brunswick - minor to moderate flooding

    7. Wilsons - moderate flooding

    8. Richmond - minor to moderate flooding

    9. Clarence including Orara - moderate flooding

    10. Coffs Harbour - minor flooding

    11. Bellinger and Kalang - moderate flooding

    12. Nambucca - minor to moderate flooding

    13. Macleay - minor flooding

    14. Hastings - minor to moderate flooding

    15. Camden Haven - minor flooding

    16. Manning - minor flooding

    17. Myall River including Bulahdelah and Wallis Lake - minor flooding

    18. Hunter including Paterson Williams - minor flooding

    19. Wyong - Tuggerah Lake - minor flooding

    20. Nepean Hawkesbury - minor to moderate flooding

    21. Georges River including Woronora - minor flooding

    22. Cooks River - minor flooding

    23. Shoalhaven - minor flooding

    24. St Georges Basin - minor flooding

    25. Moruya - minor to moderate flooding

    26. Bega - minor to moderate flooding
     
  10. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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  11. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Nearly all rain , mostly coastal , could be some large totals , maybe. ECL could easily slip away from the coast like many do.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  13. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Minor to moderate flooding for the Nepean-Hawkesbury. That could be fun. Warragamba at 86% though, so not much chance of it topping out.
     
  14. davidg

    davidg Addicted Member
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    Depends on the dams upstream of Warragamba. Most of them are sitting around the 80% mark so it would need to be a follow up event of similar magnitude to see major flooding on the Nepean IMO.

    Then again its not 100% clear just how much rain is going to fall so i wouldnt rule out Warragamba spilling just yet!
     
  15. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Not quite shore how much snow people think this system will wash away.
     

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  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    This is a snow making dam fill up system.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Triple headed low on EC

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Wally81

    Wally81 Active Member
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    'The x, the wife, the mother-in-law'- I predict moisture! Wanting the low to drop its goodness over the Snowy River Basin for some flood runs (paddling).
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    If the cold pool can get to the right spot that could be huge on the main range no?
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still have a feeling it's too far north, but lets see
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Flood Watch for East Gippsland (Mitchell, Tambo, Snowy, Cann and Genoa Rivers and Gippsland Lakes)


    Issued at 4:07 pm EST on Friday 3 June 2016
    A complex low pressure system will deepen off the New South Wales Coast during Saturday and will extend into East Gippsland over the weekend.

    Rain and possible thunderstorms are expected to develop across East Gippsland on Saturday and will persist overnight and through Sunday.

    Rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm with isolated higher totals are expected during Saturday. Further rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm with isolated higher totals are expected during Sunday.

    Significant stream rises are expected with areas of minor to moderate flooding likely to develop during Sunday particularly in the Snowy, Cann and Genoa catchments.

    No flooding is expected in the Gippsland Lakes.
     
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  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Yeah. Touch and go for sure. Not the sort of system you wanna get too excited about.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    oh, it will be exciting. But possibly not in a snowy way.
     
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  24. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Hell of a lot of rain around in different areas. Bugger all snow. About as predicted.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    If Donza was about, we'd get "Snow in strange places".
     
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  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    7M swell predicted for Cenco on Sunday arvo so it will be one to watch. Might not be much left of Ettalong Beach In Umina once this one is finished.
     
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  27. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member

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    IMO,this system is shaping up to be a mean mother of a flooding rain event.
    A drought breaker for the east coast but also some serious flood damage.
    Possible wet snow on the highest peaks.
    The following system is looking like a champion snow bearer just in time for the opening w/e.
     
  28. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Agree. The more I see of it the more I like it.
     
  29. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I know off topic but I payed my membership today.
    If I had known about it I would have payed sooner.
     
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  30. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Bit of push and shove going on with Highs & Lows. I've always watched weather maps with my surfing but never as much as now with my new location and proximity to the snow. Having said that I've never seen so many Highs and Lows on one Australasian region forecast map.. Nutzso.. ??
     
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  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Its a good looking weather map. Its nice to see central QLD getting some good rain looking at the radar all day.

    Let the games begin
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    The swell will be coming from the NE so it won't even touch that side of broken bay, it'll push down into Pittwater
     
  33. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    It's been a while since I've seen such a complex weather map that's for sure. We have not had a system like this for a long time.
     
  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM (Snowies) for the period

    Saturday 4 June
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds easterly 20 to 30 km/h turning northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon and evening.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Sunday 5 June
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h turning easterly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    10% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Monday 6 June
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Winds northeast to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    Below 5% at 1800m
    0% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 7 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1800 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Some other interesting charts for Monday





     
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  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    You would be surprised. Box Head draws it in pretty well. King tide, stacks of water pushing out of Brisbane Waters and the Haweksbury with a 7m swell pushing in. Not much beach left down there to start with.

    ECL'S seem to hammer broken bay and close it out as far out as Lion Island across to Box.
     
  37. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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  38. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    CC, what's the gut feeling on Mondays cold pool?

    The more I look, the more I am thinking we might get lucky and it tracks across the Alps.

    If we can get the timing just right and the low stalls in Bass for long enough for the tail to wrap back around and link in with the cold pool as it passes then it could be good for a quick 20cm smash and grab before it heads off to NZ.
     
  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Is this swell/tide a danger to Dangar Island?
     
  40. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Your avatar is a bloke. Glengarry is a town in VIC.
    Wandering and cutoff.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Really hard to call.
    Right now, we might get lucky and see snow down to 1800m perhaps even 1600m, but I think it will keep us guessing right to the end.

    IMO
     
  42. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Well said. Good times ahead. Might be a Selwyn system
     
  43. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yes
     
  44. Phil_

    Phil_ Active Member

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    I've never been so interested in a weather related forum.

    Will stayed to this thread :)
     
  45. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    It's addictive huh!

    No big rises or flooding yet in NSW rivers, still a lot of red lights here http://www.waterwaysguide.org.au/river-levels but I expext to see a lot of green, purple and black before Monday.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    predictions only in this thread. Use the observations thread for what's currently going on.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Looking at today's charts, it looks like it'll run out of juice and warm up too much. I think the models are underestimating the influence of the tropical moisture inflow, especially with a shallow shear through the atmosphere and such a large 'feed'. In any case, -24C as a max for a tiny cold pool is way too sketchy to put any money on. Try hitting a dart board from 20m away after 10 cans kind of accuracy.

    10th and 12th look so much better.
     
  48. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Think of it this way. The railway that runs along Mullet Creek just to the North of Dangar is about 1m above high tide level so the railway will go under before there is much to worry about and the railway has not gone under as far back as I can remember.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I just don't see enough cold to be doing much good out of this IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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