The Japanese numbers never exceeded +15.6% per day at any stage, (doubling every 4.5 days).Everywhere is vulnerable.
I expect like every industry the insurance and travel insurance industry will be wanting to be working, so they WILL issue travel insurance, however they wont cover for the costs associated with Covid19. People travelling will need to take extra care, and be prepared to bear big costs if the absolute worst happens.
I was in Hokkaido when the first cases were found, and when they locked down, closed schools and declared a state of emergency. I was less inconvenienced there in the middle of winter in a tourist village than I was here in Perth with next to no cases in mid 20C weather. We had heaps of Chinese visitors there. @Any stayed on a few weeks longer than me and it was pretty normal except for people leaving, pubs and restaurants closing early due to no demand, and worrying about being let back in to Australia. The shut down has been much more aggressive here. However the numbers have not become runaway in Japan. They are what I expect our country will experience once we open back up with caution.
My biggest concern for a Japanese Ski Season stems from the email we got from HTM implying that tourism will be off the cards, all staff in Niseko 20/21 will be local Japanese; and only ski tourists will be people from other parts of Japan. That implies a hard border closure to foreigners ongoing. And I expect the plan is for it to be ongoing up until the Olympics - they don't want to lose that again. I'm hoping he was just "worst case scenario" expectation setting, but this is my main fear about Japan now.
Australia peaked at +26.8%, or doubling every 2.6 days. It's actually a huge difference, and the only similar increase profile to Japan was Singapore, but they ended up having a 2nd wave from about the 10th April, and Singapore is still recovering.
Now both Japan & Australia are consistently below +0.8% per day for the last 2 weeks, with Australia a bit lower (below 0.8% for the last 5 weeks, and below 0.5% for the last 4 weeks).
So in the scheme of things, Australia is tracking better than Japan numbers wise, Australia is lower in deaths/million, Australia's testing per million is 20 times better. Japan will know this.
IMO, there will be a travel bubble between Australia, NZ, Taiwan & Japan, well before the northern winter.
Here are the current rules for entry into Japan:
- Entry refusal of foreigners who have stayed in Australia for the last 14 days. (it seems to be the same for every country)