longer range (+20-30 days) synoptic charts/models for the Australian area

smeagols_ghost

Hard Yards
Jan 4, 2020
51
215
83
Does anyone know where I can find longer range (+20-30 days) synoptic charts/models for the Australian area.

I know 14 days exist, does it get too unreliable past that ?
 

Bello Weather

One of Us
Jul 12, 2019
369
2,776
263
Does anyone know where I can find longer range (+20-30 days) synoptic charts/models for the Australian area.

I know 14 days exist, does it get too unreliable past that ?
You can get them - EC runs out to 46 days twice a week for example - but using short term models for longer outlooks is pretty much set up to fail. Seasonal models look at the bigger picture and produce a seasonal forecast as a result...shorter term models use current conditions and forecast from there...so a small error at day 1 becomes BIG by day 10 (EC is great but look how much +240 differs from the actual outcome). Anything behond a week or so is pushing it for the short term models...I'll keep an eye on an event if all models agree 10 days out...but that is unusual, and even so is likely to change....so I'd stick with seasonal for 30 days, short term charts up to a week or so out. Hope that helps!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Belly and Steve777

smeagols_ghost

Hard Yards
Jan 4, 2020
51
215
83
You can get them - EC runs out to 46 days twice a week for example - but using short term models for longer outlooks is pretty much set up to fail.

That's what i thought, i'm trying to get a feeling for the timings of the lows that hit Tassie mid to late feb. 14 days is just that little bit too short to set off some weather dependent work.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bello Weather

Belly

A Local
Ski Pass
Oct 22, 2003
9,890
6,487
563
45
South Coast NSW
Why not just change the thread title to Tasmania forecast for mid-late Feb and see what 2-bob you get :)
I hear La Nina is coming back so probably humid and damp but I've got no idea.
 

Bello Weather

One of Us
Jul 12, 2019
369
2,776
263
That's what i thought, i'm trying to get a feeling for the timings of the lows that hit Tassie mid to late feb. 14 days is just that little bit too short to set off some weather dependent work.
Too early yet for something that specific IMHO....though give it a couple of weeks and you'll be able to get a bit of an idea :)
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,036
36,879
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  • Like
Reactions: Belly
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Learn how membership works on these forums
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass