Observations Major Rain Event 1-4 December

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Nov 30, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Southerly arrived and hit you in the head?
     
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  2. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a pot of gold but next best thing; neighbor's putting in a boutique vineyard
     
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  3. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    The pot of gold is pagan.
     
  4. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Not quite over in Sydney...this is down the road from the office right now.

     
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  5. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It is quite wet on the south coast, so much so the local ducks have been out on the street and this was when there was a particularly heavy downpour showing how they responded: they all faced into the wind/rain and pulled their necks in


    Will head home later in the afternoon. hoping the creek on the way back to the highway isn't up, and that the flats through to Moruya's industrial area are ok. Blowing a gale though and the heater is on even.
     
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  6. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If we can't get back to the highway and return to the vacation home no problem: streaming movies and old fashioned DVDs to watch, while MrsOG works on her tablet, plus enough beer and wine to keep going for a few of days.

    A couple of pics from the phone:

    1. A wet honey eater


    2.Bomboras
     
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  7. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unfortunately this is not true.
     
  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The issue is how to convey an appropriate level of risk and uncertainty to the media. Having had the misfortune to deal with the media I know first hand how they make up bullshit headlines, create their own narratives and happily remove any nuance or subtlety relating to risk and uncertainty so they can spread fear, doom and sensationalism.

    The synoptic situation for the weekend had a lot of uncertainty on Thursday. There was agreement between the models w.r.t. North East rainfall, but for the rest of the state (and especially Melbourne) it was still a crapshoot. There were big uncertainties w.r.t where the cut-off low would form from the trough, and how slowly it would move across the state.

    Forecasting rainfall is always more difficult than forecasting temperatures. Surface temperature is a much smoother field, rainfall (especially caused by thunderstorms) is much more 'spotty' and localised.

    Using language such as 'I'll take a punt and call it a 10' is not a responsible statement. How is that helpful? He's just got sucked into the media frenzy and excitement.

    Never make definitive statements about synoptic conditions four days out where there are large disagreements in the models.

    A more responsible statement on Thursday would have been along the lines of 'we are very confident of 100mm and above in the North East. For the rest of the state, localised totals of between 50 and 200 mm are possible. We will get a better estimate of where this will fall by tomorrow. So keep tuned to the radio, TV and our Youtube and social media to get the latest forecast update.'

    Craig Lapsley is cranky for a reason.
     
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  9. Ralph_Plow

    Ralph_Plow One of Us

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    I want to know when it starts.....
     
  10. Seth

    Seth Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    .... in Jindy.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bendigo?
     
  12. Ralph_Plow

    Ralph_Plow One of Us

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    In NSW. We had some very strongly worded warnings (cats co-habitating with dogs etc etc!) for SFA outcome. Ass covering at its best.
     
  13. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'll never get a job in the media, too honest.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mascot? Alexandria?
    At only a coupla metres above ASL you'll notice a stormwater back-up before anywhere else in Sydney, I reckon.
     
  15. sauron_017

    sauron_017 Hard Yards

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    I observe that after ~150mm of rain across the majority of Melbourne Water catchments, they added less than 1% to their total storage levels.

    That doesn’t make sense.
     
  16. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does when you factor in the majority of them were probably quite dry in the runoff areas of the catchments. Thus the ground would have soaked up a lot of the water before running into the Dams. If we had another follow up event now you'd likely see a sizeable jump in the storage levels.
     
  17. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's also Wednesday, only a few days after the system. I'd be looking at the "State of the Storages" update put out this Thursday, and also next Thursday.
     
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  18. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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