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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Undies, Mar 27, 2019.
Ground cooler/base builder/pants wetter.
Looking good for a short, sharp system. IMO.
6 hour window
Latest EC prediction:
Looks like about 5-10cm of snowfall overall IMO.
Falling during the 10am-10pm Saturday period, maybe starting a bit earlier and lingering in NSW later.
Yep, good PWAT. Moisture stacked to the UL jet. Looking better on paper today than 2 days ago.
Friday rainfall along the GDR looking like the star of the show IMO.
Still 5 or so cms above 1300m. Maybe 5-10 about the peaks Satdee.
-29C over the alps Saturday arvo says we'll see snow possible above 1000m but we'll be drying up behind Tas by then.
Might even see some chundersnow Saturday PM with that upper level cold pool and diurnal high temps in sync.
I'll take a bucket for the obs thread
BOM forecasting snow for all Vic resorts (including LM) on Saturday
The thing that impresses me about this system is how organised it is. Models suggest this system peaks right over the South East. The cold air is absolutely stacked, with moisture to match (Alps and to the East).
Usually at this time of year with a cold outbreak you get a de-coupling of air-masses (warm lower atmosphere, with cold air aloft or vice-versa), but this thing is cold top to bottom. Western Vic looks bloody cold early Saturday AM.
Latest GFS (06Z) suggests it deepens in the Tasman, so that'll be interesting.
Problem with these systems is Tassie misses out , oh well we cant have it all.
I reckon we'll see snow kick off in the Vic resorts from about 4/5am Saturday IMO.
9-11am for NSW I reckon.
Was thinking more 7am ish for NSW high country.
Now through Sunday AM rainfall (EC 00z):
OCF backing Friday:
Actually you are probably right based on EC and GFS, ACCESS-R was slower than them, but given the deep upper low nature of the system earlier does seem to make more sense.
It's the kind of system that will just chuck snow down after hours of moderate rain nearing 3C.
Steep thermal curves etc.
BoM VIc dropping snow level for Saturday from 1400m to 1100m which is more aligned with the above IMO.
BoM NSW still going for 1400m on this AM's update.
Hoping for some good rainfall across tge far south east NSW
I reckon that's more prudent by NSW BOM. Every year we get the first few systems arrive and they look the goods on the models but don't quite deliver as low as expected because the models haven't quite adjusted to the change of seasons yet.
click on web cams - there is a Hotham cam in there
IMO 15-20cm for NSW MR
Purely from this arvos AXS-R update
I feel like it was more right than wrong last year.
Seems to be more like protocol with BoM.
NSW BoM now inline with Vic with snow to 1100m Saturday.
OCF Saturday falls from 10am. Seemingly dependent on where you are in the alps.
Breezy @ 850
8am 30th EC Snowline
The Europeans using imperial measures? Really?
I'm no meteorologist (clearly) but it astounds me that this chart is still expressed in feet. Yes, aviation still uses feet but what about more general-use forecasts?
Any thoughts folks?
It's a American site using a euro model?
EC Input, US output as Donzah indicates.
No biggie - particularly if you're a meteo or from aviation.
Oh OK -just checking. Can't US to deal with metres can we?
BTW: Have heard /read Vail resorts are trying to get Whistler-Blackcomb to drop the metric reporting. Are they worried it might 'catch on' down south??
The US is in all sorts of FUBAR RN.
We use GFS in metres for freeze level
Perisher (1719m ASL) EC00z/YrNo
I'm gonna guess at 2cm-5cm, based on the theory of: (Models-Optimism)x(Vibe+Season)=Output.
I'm hoping for some white alpine goodness - should it be measured in feet, inches or 'meters'! ( ;-)
I predict I've chosen a bad weekend to come to jindy to fish mountain streams.
I'll post pics on Saturday
Never mind Bullet: as Paul Kelly advised 'There's so much water so close to home'
Down to 1000m. (At least for southern Vic.)
Plus the number of spanners in a sidchrome tool set.
Inline with my post on Monday.
Or even Raymond Carver.
Probably a good day Saturday for gentleman’s hours on the rivers, with a fair bit of time spent by the fire listening to Kelly and reading Carver!