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Predictions March 29-31

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Undies, Mar 27, 2019.

  1. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground cooler/base builder/pants wetter.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Looking good for a short, sharp system. IMO.
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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    [​IMG]Healthy prediction.
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC prediction:


    Looks like about 5-10cm of snowfall overall IMO.
    Falling during the 10am-10pm Saturday period, maybe starting a bit earlier and lingering in NSW later.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, good PWAT. Moisture stacked to the UL jet. Looking better on paper today than 2 days ago.
    Friday rainfall along the GDR looking like the star of the show IMO.

    Still 5 or so cms above 1300m. Maybe 5-10 about the peaks Satdee.
    -29C over the alps Saturday arvo says we'll see snow possible above 1000m but we'll be drying up behind Tas by then.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might even see some chundersnow Saturday PM with that upper level cold pool and diurnal high temps in sync.
     
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  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll take a bucket for the obs thread
     
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  9. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecasting snow for all Vic resorts (including LM) on Saturday
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The thing that impresses me about this system is how organised it is. Models suggest this system peaks right over the South East. The cold air is absolutely stacked, with moisture to match (Alps and to the East).

    Usually at this time of year with a cold outbreak you get a de-coupling of air-masses (warm lower atmosphere, with cold air aloft or vice-versa), but this thing is cold top to bottom. Western Vic looks bloody cold early Saturday AM.
    Latest GFS (06Z) suggests it deepens in the Tasman, so that'll be interesting.
     
  11. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Problem with these systems is Tassie misses out :(, oh well we cant have it all.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon we'll see snow kick off in the Vic resorts from about 4/5am Saturday IMO.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    9-11am for NSW I reckon.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was thinking more 7am ish for NSW high country.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now through Sunday AM rainfall (EC 00z):


    OCF backing Friday:
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually you are probably right based on EC and GFS, ACCESS-R was slower than them, but given the deep upper low nature of the system earlier does seem to make more sense.

     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the kind of system that will just chuck snow down after hours of moderate rain nearing 3C.
    Steep thermal curves etc.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM VIc dropping snow level for Saturday from 1400m to 1100m which is more aligned with the above IMO.
    BoM NSW still going for 1400m on this AM's update.
     
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  20. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping for some good rainfall across tge far south east NSW
     
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  21. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon that's more prudent by NSW BOM. Every year we get the first few systems arrive and they look the goods on the models but don't quite deliver as low as expected because the models haven't quite adjusted to the change of seasons yet.
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah.... Nah....

    Thredbo

     
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  23. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO 15-20cm for NSW MR

    Purely from this arvos AXS-R update
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I feel like it was more right than wrong last year.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems to be more like protocol with BoM.
    NSW BoM now inline with Vic with snow to 1100m Saturday.

    OCF Saturday falls from 10am. Seemingly dependent on where you are in the alps.
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Breezy @ 850
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    8am 30th EC Snowline
     
  30. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    The Europeans using imperial measures? Really?

    I'm no meteorologist (clearly) but it astounds me that this chart is still expressed in feet. Yes, aviation still uses feet but what about more general-use forecasts?

    Any thoughts folks?
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a American site using a euro model?
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Input, US output as Donzah indicates.
    No biggie - particularly if you're a meteo or from aviation.
     
  33. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Oh OK -just checking. Can't US to deal with metres can we?

    BTW: Have heard /read Vail resorts are trying to get Whistler-Blackcomb to drop the metric reporting. Are they worried it might 'catch on' down south??
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The US is in all sorts of FUBAR RN.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    We use GFS in metres for freeze level
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher (1719m ASL) EC00z/YrNo
     
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  37. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm gonna guess at 2cm-5cm, based on the theory of: (Models-Optimism)x(Vibe+Season)=Output.
     
  38. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    I'm hoping for some white alpine goodness - should it be measured in feet, inches or 'meters'! ( ;-)
     
  39. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    I predict I've chosen a bad weekend to come to jindy to fish mountain streams.
    I'll post pics on Saturday
     
  40. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Never mind Bullet: as Paul Kelly advised 'There's so much water so close to home'
     
  41. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Down to 1000m. (At least for southern Vic.)
     
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  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plus the number of spanners in a sidchrome tool set.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Inline with my post on Monday.
     
  44. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or even Raymond Carver.
    Probably a good day Saturday for gentleman’s hours on the rivers, with a fair bit of time spent by the fire listening to Kelly and reading Carver!
     
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