Max melt rate?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Mishka, Sep 6, 2017.

  1. Mishka

    Mishka Hard Yards

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    Unfortunately, I'm unable to get up the mountains for the upcoming once-in-a-lifetime weekend of September 9-10 (enjoy, for those lucky enough to be going!) but have at least managed to get time and accommodation at Buller for the season-end weekend of 30th Sep.

    Considering this mega storm looks to finish it's work on the 9th and should leave Buller with a near record 200cm, I would appreciate an opinion on how resilient that base would be to the end of the month.

    If there is no further snow from the 9th what rate of loss would you expect during the following 3 weeks and what would it take for a total wipe-out of such a big base - i.e would sunny 5c+ conditions every day do it, or would you need something more dramatic like heavy warm rain?
     
  2. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  3. Mishka

    Mishka Hard Yards

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    So which? Just three weeks of sunny above freezing will wipe-out the base or will it need a heavy warm rain event?
     
  4. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    If you're watching it closely, expect more rapid depth loss earlier. Assuming there is no additional snow, the fresh, light stuff on top will melt surprisingly quickly at 1-2C, but what's underneath is surprisingly hardy at even 6-7+ degrees C although this will depend on aspect.

    The northern slopes of Buller will get wiped out quickly in warm weather (facing the sun), but the south should be fine. I've skied Buller at the end of September twice, the second time was after an OK season (~80-90cm at end of August) and there was more than enough to keep me entertained as an intermediate/low advanced skier. Also, one year I skied Baw Baw in late September after they got 120cm in mid August, September was dry and warm (up to 10C some days on the mountain) and there was still enough to keep almost the whole mountain open in late September. You're pretty safe I think.
     
  5. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have seen Perisher lose a metre in a fortnight with warm, heavy rain. That is rare, but anything is possible.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 50 or so cm that is falling now is probably dry, fluffy and loose. That makes it easy to lose. That won't be great for Lower Northside/Tyrol area, but everywhere else will be fine.
     
  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Riding it compacts it inbounds though. As per grooming.
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Extended maps all working in the op's favour too.
    Very little melting over the next 10 days.
    Just consolidation.