May 19 to 22

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by BlueHue, May 10, 2006.

  1. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So looking at the last couple of panels for May 19/20, maybe this has potential to be our next snowfall?

    http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel_aus.html

    certainly looks a bit warm and wet to start with, but is followed by a cut off low (although temps might still be a little marginal) then on the last chart another cold front looming in the bight!

    of course 10 days out so who knows really!
     
    #1 BlueHue, May 10, 2006
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  2. sadcase

    sadcase First Runs

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    I got this from weatherzone I know its a week out but this time of year I always live in hope. The image will update [​IMG]
     
  3. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Not likely to get much out of that, maybe 5-10cm after as many mm of rain...
     
  4. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Frankly, I would welcome a good soaking before a good freeze right about now.
     
  5. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    The frog has been looking at this system for ages. At first he thought there'd be a good 30-40cm possible (or maybe someone else on the forum said that), now everyones talking it down! Looks like not much more snow for may, no white queens b'day weekend either..?
     
  6. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    It does not have to change much for that to be a cracker - or a complete fizzer. [​IMG]
     
    #6 Bugski, May 11, 2006
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  7. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    If it does come off, it will be the perfect season starter! :thumbs:
     
  8. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Something to keep an eye on at least and give us a little hope for more snow in May, but for now looking like high pressure might keep it too far south for a good fall of snow.

    I've noticed that GFS at about 7-10 days has a habit of pulling something good out of nowhere which leaves you thinking "yeah right, as if" than sure enough will back it right off to little, if any snow by about 5 days out before building the front up to something good again at a few days out....

    it happened a few times last year and once or twice this year when the eventual system ended up pretty similar in nature to what the model said more than a week out. Unfortunately I don't save charts so can't back this up!
     
  9. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    As Mahtoh said the slightest changes can make this somthing or nothing come back in a week and then will talk snow potential [​IMG] !
     
    #9 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 11, 2006
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  10. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    I don´t really see anything til the 26th/27th. Looks like around 10cm or so then.
     
  11. tederickio

    tederickio First Runs

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    Saw you on the news last night frog.
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    some potential. to either produce or disappoint.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    you all seem to be sitting on the fence... I can't see much change in those charts. The pressure will be the death of this one.
     
  14. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh, no fence sitting. That low off qld is gonna turn into an ECL, that high off nz's gonna disappear, the WA one's gonna retract and the the jet streams' gonna tear down from WA while the isobars under tassie go vertical. About a metre i reckon. :clown:
     
  15. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    there's nought in this one... just a sprinkle of rain perhaps, but even that is at the mercy of the pressure. looking forward to this high to push off the continent and breakdown (i'm getting sick of these cloudy but dry days in sydney) but i can't see it really happening for another week or so.
     
  16. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    I know what you mean BlueHue. I've noticed GFS has a habit of forecasting a system from a long way out, going cold on it then "rediscovering" it again from a few days out.
    It likes this system at the moment and has gone cold on the system around the 26th.
    Should be interesting as it unfolds.
     
  17. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Our loss is NZs gain, they look like having a bumper early season.
     
  18. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    So, Frog and others have been saying for two weeks "the high's will migrate north in about 2 weeks"... but by the sounds of it, we have another 2 weeks of high action. Does anyone really know? Can it be predicted at all? Comments? [​IMG]
     
    #18 snowcrazed, May 12, 2006
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  19. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    no fence sitting hey,

    than I'm gonna go with the flow and say this one is not going to produce much, if any snow. Pressure will be too high!

    Reasoning, Australia and The Indian Ocean mid latitudes are currently being dominated by highs that don't look like giving way anytime soon!

    PMG I bet GFS makes a lier of me on this one!
     
  20. james.dutschke

    james.dutschke First Runs

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    highs will go north after a couple more decent fronts hit. ill go out on an uneducated limb (guess) and say tthat well see our last substantial one on the 27th..... then its winter all the way!
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #21 The Plowking, May 14, 2006
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  22. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Could pan out ok on sat & sunday for southern and eastern highlands of tassie if those highs dont get to strong!!
     
  23. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    This front is worth keeping an eye on there is abit of potential there i hope!
     
  24. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    To me the models at this stage seem to be showing a fairly weak cold pool over the mtns and pressure to high for anything substantial.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They would have said the same for Aus this time last week.
     
    #25 POW_hungry, May 15, 2006
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  26. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    [​IMG]

    All that chart tells me is that the model has NFI about what is going to happen.
     
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...and it could still come off.
     
  28. snow_hope

    snow_hope Hard Yards

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    Agree that its a long way out, but the GASP model has a nice high +540 extending right over the mountains, but just wish there was more moisture in the picture..

    [​IMG]

    [Edit: ok - obviously can't post GASP images here, you'll have to see for yourselves..]

    Just curious, (hope this is relatively on topic) - given the difference in the GFS and GASP predictions from about the +120 hours onwards, does this mean that both models have sweet NFI, or is one generally more reliable than the other?
     
  29. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    bustin air somewhere
    So all u experts, is this looking the goods for Sunday? Being forecasted rain and a top of 14 for Melbourne i would have guessed that means snow in the alps??
     
  30. tederickio

    tederickio First Runs

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    :thumbs:
     
    #30 tederickio, May 15, 2006
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  31. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    the pressures on the current GFS run are on the ridiculous side of stupid. i expect something funny to happen in the next few runs to straighten that out. hoping for something....


    [​IMG]
     
  32. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    mrf says no go as does the funny feeling in my giblets:

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 churchy, May 15, 2006
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  33. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    Nice ecl forming on 22nd May! NSW coast will get some good moisture out of this one, at this stage it will only r*in on the alps. Worth keeping an eye on
     
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    thats exactly what i thought when i saw it! Pressure is way high!
     
    #34 Stratus, May 15, 2006
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  35. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    ECL... I hope so!

    Bring on the rain for Sydney and the CT.
     
    #35 Ijay, May 15, 2006
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  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    pressure around 1028hpa, 15mm of rain and thickness 540 extending to the murray, something aint right here.
     
  37. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm with Mahtoh, models have no idea whats cooking!
     
  38. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    GFS looking at some moisture and the 540line pushing into victoria for Saturday 20th but that pressure is very high! will watch with some intrest from now on.
     
  39. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Looks like it's going to be cold just along the bottom coast of Tassie, check that little purple circle of a 520 line.
     
    #39 Alex.C, May 16, 2006
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  40. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    theres my vertical isobars!...but yeah pressure weird, and moisture low. Still, 1 out of 3 is better than the nay sayers were nay saying last week.
     
  41. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    The models are very confused.. not making any sense at all..
    I don’t even understand why they predict it will be soo cold. The air is originating from central Australia, then going not much further south than Tasmania is, then turning north again.

    They are also showing 20mm for western Tasmania, which seems very overstated with pressure predicted to be 1028 there.
     
  42. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    yes, it seems the models have agreed to disagree on this one - some going for a cut off over perth, some for a cut off in the bight, but most of all they all point to higher than average pressures and i can't help but disagree with the cold incursions predicted.

    can someone with a bit of insight into upper atmospheric conditions give us an opinion on this one?
     
  43. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    The EC model has been very consistent over its past few runs. It has a front passing the Alps on Saturday but with high pressure and little moisture. A strong and broad upper trough associated with the front then moves slowly across eastern Australia from Sunday to Tuesday. The upper trough will bring decent rain to QLD or NSW, or both, on Monday and Tuesday. If the rain reaches southeast NSW then Thredbo and Perisher may do allright because winds will be easterly. Easterly winds can bring snow to NSW resorts if its cold enough. VIC resorts unlikely to get snow after the initial front moves through.
     
  44. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    EC has an upper low drifting north over eastern VIC/southeast NSW on Monday/Tuesday. Moisture from the Tasman would be fed into the upper low in the mid levels. That would bring decent snowfalls, especially to NSW resorts. GFS keeps the upper low in the Tasman and develops a surface low over inland QLD.

    There is a good chance that what may eventuate will be somewhere between the two so mabye a surface low developing off the NSW north coast. But its still anyones guess at this stage. At a minimum at least rain will fall somewhere over NSW or southern QLD.
     
  45. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    NSW BOM are looking positive for snow at higher levels (above 1700). GFS not showing much potential and not much moisture in it.
    Interesting how long the snow has stayed on the ground since the last fall. Snowmaking should kick of next weekend and with this cold air and cooled ground they should get a bit of snow down for the LWE, Anything will be better than nothing
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS run has an interesting EC low forming early next week - i think someone mentioned the possibility of this happening earlier. Could be one of those interesting setups that brings snow to the coastal ranges.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite possibly a flake or two sneaking their way into the hills of Hobart [​IMG] otherwise, I still think it's lacking pressure for anything to stick around longer than a day. The possibility of a flurry, otherwise...
     
    #47 POW_hungry, May 18, 2006
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  48. Malkatraz

    Malkatraz First Runs

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    What the..? The TAS BOM have 'upgraded' their forecast for tomorrow from light highland snowfall, to snow to 600m.
     
  49. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Highland snow and snow above 600m are the same. Here is the official BOM definitions.

    Highest peaks: => 1200 m
    Highland snow: => 600 m
    Snow to low levels: =< 600 m
     
  50. STEEZY GONZALES

    STEEZY GONZALES First Runs

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    So in english - are we getting any snow?