May 19 to 22

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by BlueHue, May 10, 2006.

  1. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Hmm whats the Victorian and NSW definitions of the above heights?
     
    #51 Alex.C, May 19, 2006
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  2. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    The NSW and VIC BOM usually give a height in their forecasts. e.g. Scattered showers, falling as snow above 1000m.
     
  3. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Who, where and when is 'We'
     
    #53 tomtankman, May 19, 2006
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  4. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    PROBABILITY OF SNOW: at 1500 m at 1900 m
    Today (6am/6pm) 0% 10%
    Tonight (6pm/6am) 0% 30%
    Saturday (24hr from 6am) 30% 70%
     
  5. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Not always, they currently say:

    I guess higher peaks is going to be 1600+ or so..
     
    #55 Alex.C, May 19, 2006
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  6. Malkatraz

    Malkatraz First Runs

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    Didn't know that. I always pictured light highland snowfalls as light snowfall above 1400-1500m (in Tas), and snow to 600 or 800m as significantly greater.
     
    #56 Malkatraz, May 19, 2006
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  7. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    interesting
    this system has changed a bit.
    Now has decent lowish pressures and is driving North East instead of South east.
    Not much forecast moisture though so little if any precipitation 2-5cm in Falls Carpark?
    Still..nice to see a "surprise"
     
  8. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    GFS has now finally come more into line with EC although its still all over the place from run to run. I am definitely putting my money on EC due to its consistency. EC has a sharp upper cold pool moving north across eastern VIC/southeast NSW on Monday/Tuesday.

    I still say heavy snow a chance over NSW resorts on Monday/Tuesday and next to nothing for VIC.
     
  9. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    Well, the latest model updates for GFS are pretty dramatic to say the least.

    They show it staying dry and cool/cold until Tuesday. Then on Tuesday it all gets interesting.
    We have an isolated blob of cold air over Central Victoria and a stream of precipitation coming from a Trough and also a Low which is on the NSW/QLD border. Then on Wednesday it all goes abit crazy, We have a pretty strong Low over Eastern Victoria, another just off Sydney/Newcastle and another off QLD. These are predicted to generate huge amounts of precipitation, strong winds, and interestingly enough, there is still some blobs of cold air around the NSW/VIC border.

    Depending on where these Lows form it will make a huge difference in Temperature and Rainfall. This could be one of those huge dumps from the east but even if it doesn’t give snow, this setup could be a great soaking for Eastern QLD/NSW/VIC.

    Will be interesting to see how this changes before next week, but in saying all that GASP wants nothing to do with this. The EC is showing much the same thing, but less dramatic.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It looks like it will be cold, but not much in it.
    Perhaps a little for baw baw & tasmania. Nice cold South East winds.

    [​IMG]
     
    #60 Claude Cat, May 19, 2006
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  11. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    so much for high pressure systems migrating north [​IMG]
     
    #61 snowcrazed, May 19, 2006
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  12. Wagon

    Wagon Hard Yards

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    Boy I Love the weather
     
  13. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Baw Baw is getting a nice fall this morning about 10cm so far.
     
  14. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

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    . Rather unsettled conditions look
    to be developing during the middle of next week as an upper cold pool moves over
    the region. Showers and snow falls are increasingly likely from later on Monday
    onwards with rain and more significant snowfalls developing on Tuesday and into
    Wednesday.
    i like the sound of this from the BOM this morning
     
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be a weird setup with weather coming in from the south east.. Means there is likley to be some snow in some unusual places like the Tinderry Range (above Michelago). NOt sure how the resorts will go though. Thredbo did really well out of one of these systems last season.
     
    #65 Snow Blowey, May 20, 2006
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  16. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It has got bitterly cold in Narbethong (Vic) at about 3pm today. But the sky is clear [​IMG]
     
    #66 teckel, May 20, 2006
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  17. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    interesting its gonna be hit and miss but i cant see much on the GFS charts precip wise! But the bom seem cofident of somthing around and GFS every update has changed dramaticly from good to fizzer to good etc... so heres hoping for somthing! Btw baw baw go snow last nite today [​IMG]
     
    #67 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 20, 2006
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for that.

    Melb pressure at 1030hPa. [​IMG]
     
    #68 POW_hungry, May 21, 2006
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    like people have said before, cold, but no moisture.
     
  20. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    look at the current radar there is scattered shower activity moving towards the alps if it hits in the right places buller and baw baw could get upto 5cm!
     
  21. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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  22. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    0.3 at baw baw and 1.6mm precip just off snowing by the looks of it!
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    underestimated this activity. maybe a dusting. it is cold outside.
     
  24. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Tuesday looks good on the latest run on GFS for about 10cm possibly more! [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #74 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 21, 2006
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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    snow at baw baw buller and falls, so most likely at hotham aswell. certainly cold enough, and there's still some moisture on the way so there could be around 5cms at the resorts come morning.

    bit of a surprise.
     
  26. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    Will this cool the ground ?
     
  27. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    More snow at just Baw Baw and Lake Mountain again. If this keeps up I may have to consider a season pass for Baw Baw. :p
     
  28. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    web page

    Not very often you look at the Sales radar for snow, although I remember last year mid season doing the same thing.
    Some rain bands heading due north around Lakes Entrance and should hit NSW resorts. Not much in it but the NSW BOM are optimistic with cummulative totals over the next two days of 18 -30cms ( Based on range of 2 today,tonight & tomorrow.
    Snow from this direction usually falls more heavily on Jindabyne if it is cold enough.
     
    #78 Outlooker, May 22, 2006
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  29. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Seems to of been a light dusting at PB this afternoon. (Go between 9am and current image of FV)
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    PB ran the guns for around 30mins around 1pm this arvo, that might be what you're seeing.
     
  31. snowmobile

    snowmobile One of Us

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    I was up there this afternoon and it was snowing for most of the time i was there but was only settling briefy before melting.
     
  32. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Yeh i noticed they had ran them but there was what looked to of been snow in other places. Either way no doubt that it snowed last night [​IMG]
     
    #82 SNJ, May 23, 2006
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nice coverage at Baw Baw this morning. Hotham has got a bit, and so has falls. Not much elsewhere.
     
  34. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    looks like the cold pool will hang around for another few days. maybe not quite 540, but not far above it. a dominant high pressure cell by thursday so hopefully we can get a bit more precip spinning off the ecl and out of the tasman over the next 48 hours. i reckon a few more flakes above 1600m overnight and that's it.

    should be just enough to let the higher resorts pump up the snowmaking at some stage over the next week and give the manmade something to stick to.
     
  35. lotsofski4me

    lotsofski4me First Runs

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    Is anybody watching the radar for around Cooma? Looks like its about to pour and it looks cold enough at PB for more snow, Or am i just to keen?
     
  36. board freek

    board freek One of Us

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    5 degrees in melbourne at 8 am this morning

    coldest ive felt for a while
     
  37. lotsofski4me

    lotsofski4me First Runs

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    not sure what the temp was in Sydney but it was cold, and i think i was the only person at work that was enjoying it [​IMG]
     
    #87 lotsofski4me, May 23, 2006
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  38. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    The Age says 11 degrees now
     
  39. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Just checked the the 256k loop for canberra. Big cloud mass heading from the east in. Looks like it might miss the southern part of the mountains though and heading towards Canberra. 12 Degrees in Sydney right now.
     
  40. bullerboarder

    bullerboarder First Runs

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    Might still hit the mountains.
    [​IMG]
     
    #90 bullerboarder, May 23, 2006
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  41. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Currently 4.7 at Cooma Airport with SSW winds. No precip as yet but the pressure is droping. The temps have dropped along the coast 2 degrees around Bega since 10.00am.
    Unfortunately the main precip is NE of the resorts so their won't be much in it. Should be some good rain up the coast in the next 24hrs.
     
  42. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    If you look at the East Sale radar there is precip heading to the mountains. i would imagine there is still some on the way for NSW resorts. [​IMG]
     
  43. snowbabe123

    snowbabe123 First Runs

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    if you look at the cams looks like it is snowing at PB
     
  44. bullerboarder

    bullerboarder First Runs

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    just started raining here in canberra.
     
  45. white_beanie

    white_beanie Part of the Furniture

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    I just had a look at the Front Valley snow cam (PB) and it looks almost covered in white!
     
  46. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    It snowed over night and then on and off all day at Perisher. Nothing major, but snow is snow.
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Checking out the latest satelite loop it looks like another substantial bit of moisture heading for the NSW mountains later on tonight. Still -1 at top of thredbo so there could be a decent bit up high come the morning. This should ensure we have a good solid base above 1900m for the start of the season.
     
  48. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    yeah, I saw the clockwise curl from the intesifying L off the NSW coast as well, so I think there's more to come out of this yet.

    Didn't we have a similar situation either last year or the year before where the L just kept giving???
     
  49. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    hhmm looks like more rain than snow is left in this system to me.

    The sat pic shows a fair bit of cloud wrapping around from the warmer Tasman Sea and temps have been rising slowly all day to be above zero at all alpine weather stations except Hotham and Thredbo.

    Like Snow Blowey says still might be good for a bit more up high though.