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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by BlueHue, May 10, 2006.
Hmm whats the Victorian and NSW definitions of the above heights?
The NSW and VIC BOM usually give a height in their forecasts. e.g. Scattered showers, falling as snow above 1000m.
Who, where and when is 'We'
PROBABILITY OF SNOW: at 1500 m at 1900 m
Today (6am/6pm) 0% 10%
Tonight (6pm/6am) 0% 30%
Saturday (24hr from 6am) 30% 70%
Not always, they currently say:
I guess higher peaks is going to be 1600+ or so..
Didn't know that. I always pictured light highland snowfalls as light snowfall above 1400-1500m (in Tas), and snow to 600 or 800m as significantly greater.
this system has changed a bit.
Now has decent lowish pressures and is driving North East instead of South east.
Not much forecast moisture though so little if any precipitation 2-5cm in Falls Carpark?
Still..nice to see a "surprise"
GFS has now finally come more into line with EC although its still all over the place from run to run. I am definitely putting my money on EC due to its consistency. EC has a sharp upper cold pool moving north across eastern VIC/southeast NSW on Monday/Tuesday.
I still say heavy snow a chance over NSW resorts on Monday/Tuesday and next to nothing for VIC.
Well, the latest model updates for GFS are pretty dramatic to say the least.
They show it staying dry and cool/cold until Tuesday. Then on Tuesday it all gets interesting.
We have an isolated blob of cold air over Central Victoria and a stream of precipitation coming from a Trough and also a Low which is on the NSW/QLD border. Then on Wednesday it all goes abit crazy, We have a pretty strong Low over Eastern Victoria, another just off Sydney/Newcastle and another off QLD. These are predicted to generate huge amounts of precipitation, strong winds, and interestingly enough, there is still some blobs of cold air around the NSW/VIC border.
Depending on where these Lows form it will make a huge difference in Temperature and Rainfall. This could be one of those huge dumps from the east but even if it doesnâ€™t give snow, this setup could be a great soaking for Eastern QLD/NSW/VIC.
Will be interesting to see how this changes before next week, but in saying all that GASP wants nothing to do with this. The EC is showing much the same thing, but less dramatic.
It looks like it will be cold, but not much in it.
Perhaps a little for baw baw & tasmania. Nice cold South East winds.
so much for high pressure systems migrating north
Boy I Love the weather
Baw Baw is getting a nice fall this morning about 10cm so far.
. Rather unsettled conditions look
to be developing during the middle of next week as an upper cold pool moves over
the region. Showers and snow falls are increasingly likely from later on Monday
onwards with rain and more significant snowfalls developing on Tuesday and into
i like the sound of this from the BOM this morning
Will be a weird setup with weather coming in from the south east.. Means there is likley to be some snow in some unusual places like the Tinderry Range (above Michelago). NOt sure how the resorts will go though. Thredbo did really well out of one of these systems last season.
It has got bitterly cold in Narbethong (Vic) at about 3pm today. But the sky is clear
interesting its gonna be hit and miss but i cant see much on the GFS charts precip wise! But the bom seem cofident of somthing around and GFS every update has changed dramaticly from good to fizzer to good etc... so heres hoping for somthing! Btw baw baw go snow last nite today
Thanks for that.
Melb pressure at 1030hPa.
like people have said before, cold, but no moisture.
look at the current radar there is scattered shower activity moving towards the alps if it hits in the right places buller and baw baw could get upto 5cm!
0.3 at baw baw and 1.6mm precip just off snowing by the looks of it!
underestimated this activity. maybe a dusting. it is cold outside.
Tuesday looks good on the latest run on GFS for about 10cm possibly more!
snow at baw baw buller and falls, so most likely at hotham aswell. certainly cold enough, and there's still some moisture on the way so there could be around 5cms at the resorts come morning.
bit of a surprise.
Will this cool the ground ?
More snow at just Baw Baw and Lake Mountain again. If this keeps up I may have to consider a season pass for Baw Baw.
Not very often you look at the Sales radar for snow, although I remember last year mid season doing the same thing.
Some rain bands heading due north around Lakes Entrance and should hit NSW resorts. Not much in it but the NSW BOM are optimistic with cummulative totals over the next two days of 18 -30cms ( Based on range of 2 today,tonight & tomorrow.
Snow from this direction usually falls more heavily on Jindabyne if it is cold enough.
Seems to of been a light dusting at PB this afternoon. (Go between 9am and current image of FV)
PB ran the guns for around 30mins around 1pm this arvo, that might be what you're seeing.
I was up there this afternoon and it was snowing for most of the time i was there but was only settling briefy before melting.
Yeh i noticed they had ran them but there was what looked to of been snow in other places. Either way no doubt that it snowed last night
Nice coverage at Baw Baw this morning. Hotham has got a bit, and so has falls. Not much elsewhere.
looks like the cold pool will hang around for another few days. maybe not quite 540, but not far above it. a dominant high pressure cell by thursday so hopefully we can get a bit more precip spinning off the ecl and out of the tasman over the next 48 hours. i reckon a few more flakes above 1600m overnight and that's it.
should be just enough to let the higher resorts pump up the snowmaking at some stage over the next week and give the manmade something to stick to.
Is anybody watching the radar for around Cooma? Looks like its about to pour and it looks cold enough at PB for more snow, Or am i just to keen?
5 degrees in melbourne at 8 am this morning
coldest ive felt for a while
not sure what the temp was in Sydney but it was cold, and i think i was the only person at work that was enjoying it
The Age says 11 degrees now
Just checked the the 256k loop for canberra. Big cloud mass heading from the east in. Looks like it might miss the southern part of the mountains though and heading towards Canberra. 12 Degrees in Sydney right now.
Might still hit the mountains.
Currently 4.7 at Cooma Airport with SSW winds. No precip as yet but the pressure is droping. The temps have dropped along the coast 2 degrees around Bega since 10.00am.
Unfortunately the main precip is NE of the resorts so their won't be much in it. Should be some good rain up the coast in the next 24hrs.
If you look at the East Sale radar there is precip heading to the mountains. i would imagine there is still some on the way for NSW resorts.
if you look at the cams looks like it is snowing at PB
just started raining here in canberra.
I just had a look at the Front Valley snow cam (PB) and it looks almost covered in white!
It snowed over night and then on and off all day at Perisher. Nothing major, but snow is snow.
Checking out the latest satelite loop it looks like another substantial bit of moisture heading for the NSW mountains later on tonight. Still -1 at top of thredbo so there could be a decent bit up high come the morning. This should ensure we have a good solid base above 1900m for the start of the season.
yeah, I saw the clockwise curl from the intesifying L off the NSW coast as well, so I think there's more to come out of this yet.
Didn't we have a similar situation either last year or the year before where the L just kept giving???
hhmm looks like more rain than snow is left in this system to me.
The sat pic shows a fair bit of cloud wrapping around from the warmer Tasman Sea and temps have been rising slowly all day to be above zero at all alpine weather stations except Hotham and Thredbo.
Like Snow Blowey says still might be good for a bit more up high though.