Might as well put it up. I'm not totally sold on it, but it sure looks good at the moment. GFS (06Z run)
Looks like its going to get very cold at times , I am seeing big negative numbers for all over the hills , NSW in particular.
To all the experts here, I am heading to the main range (Alice Rawson) on those dates..... How strong the wind would you guys predict at this stage..... Thanking you heap in advance.... Cheers.
100km/hr+. Closely spaced isobars = strong wind. Would not be pleasant. You may end up with the Candian that is still out there.
yr no is saying the winds are going to be strongest on Thursday, then moderate over the weekend. Temps will be in the negatives with a horrid wind chill. Will be more pleasant by a fire in the pub IMO.
It may be something but likely nothing. It looks short and sweet if anything. But the potential looks good at 48 hrs. So it may develop. Oh Dam I am in the wrong date range. Oh well. Nice start to the year for me. This system before may help to reinforce the winter pattern in my mind for the 28 May Forecast. At the moment with back to back Lows every second day its hard to look beyond 72 hrs. Although the Lows are not getting anywhere near the 36 degree Latitude. They are more interesting from a surfing point of view. Which is sort of normal as its mid MAY. NZ copping it though.
Was thinking it but didn't want to say it haha The current progression shows the front pass over the bight on the 25/26th and then the low form in its wake, before sliding SE toward Tassy and NZ. Hopefully this means the initial front will cool things down enough so by the time the Low gets into range of the Alps, temps will be cold enough for mostly snow and not much pre frontal. Not that Pre Frontal matters when there is no base, but the more moisture that falls as white instead of clear is always the dream
Yeah, there is still a lot of confusion but the models struggle in a normal year during shifting seasons let alone this year where we have almost skipped Autumn and are now heading from Summer straight into Winter so I am expecting major model carnage. At worst, we will at least find out which runs are more accurate.
The Lows are definitely liking the above average SST East of Tassy. NZ will cop a flogging over the next few weeks IMO
something is very wrong here me thinks , 11 foot storm - 330 to 340 cm in 1 hit !!!! Besides being most probably an all time record , think of the carnage. Heaps of snow on the hills and no way to get to it. Every river for maybe 100 kms would be flooded. No I not like this at all
