Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Might as well put it up.
    I'm not totally sold on it, but it sure looks good at the moment.

    GFS (06Z run)
     
    mick chopps, rocketboy and Kletterer like this.
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC (00Z run)
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    2,134
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    Looks like its going to get very cold at times , I am seeing big negative numbers for all over the hills , NSW in particular.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    17,103
    Likes Received:
    11,514
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    The spag has spoken and it's screaming cold and snowy. IMO :thumbs:

    Come to papa.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,592
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Looks like a window of potential and that's about it imo.
    Divergence. Date range.
     
  7. rM788

    rM788 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    50
    To all the experts here, I am heading to the main range (Alice Rawson) on those dates..... How strong the wind would you guys predict at this stage..... Thanking you heap in advance.... Cheers.
     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,856
    Likes Received:
    14,330
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    100km/hr+.

    Closely spaced isobars = strong wind.

    Would not be pleasant. You may end up with the Candian that is still out there.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still looking pretty solid on am runs.

    GFS
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    528 line up to the Alps!
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,953
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    yr no is saying the winds are going to be strongest on Thursday, then moderate over the weekend. Temps will be in the negatives with a horrid wind chill. Will be more pleasant by a fire in the pub IMO.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,485
    Likes Received:
    25,925
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Pressure is good. Looks deep.
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    It may be something but likely nothing. It looks short and sweet if anything. But the potential looks good at 48 hrs. So it may develop.

    Oh Dam I am in the wrong date range. Oh well. Nice start to the year for me.

    This system before may help to reinforce the winter pattern in my mind for the 28 May Forecast.

    At the moment with back to back Lows every second day its hard to look beyond 72 hrs. Although the Lows are not getting anywhere near the 36 degree Latitude. They are more interesting from a surfing point of view. Which is sort of normal as its mid MAY.

    NZ copping it though.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #12 7wombathead, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
    Bloke and Chowder11 like this.
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Corrected date range chart.

    I like these charts too.

    [​IMG]
     
    Chowder11 likes this.
  14. rM788

    rM788 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    50
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    30,089
    Likes Received:
    13,339
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Count the nodes..I think we may have a pattern for the winter
     
  16. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Surely this needs a mageddon tag ?
     
    snowblowa, CarveMan and 7wombathead like this.
  17. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    #olympicmageddon
     
    7wombathead and Seafm like this.
  18. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    11,516
    Likes Received:
    6,568
    Location:
    Elwood
    Please dont start that again
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
     
    snowblowa, skimax and 7wombathead like this.
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    The four Dayer looks promising

    [​IMG]
     
    jungfrau and Bloke like this.
  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    "The Opening Ceremony"

    Sorry CC
     
    jungfrau and Bloke like this.
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Latest GFS update


    Low stalling in the Tasman?

    Talk about a bombing low. 949 hPa? :eek:
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    Little treat on the 23rd will set this up a bit IMO
     
  25. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    20,302
    Likes Received:
    8,469
    Location:
    Chernobyl, Russia
    Tassy going to get very cold when that low stalls just to the east of it.
     
  26. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,953
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    I wonder if there will be enough snow for @Boodwah to tackle that line in Tassie he wants to do.
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    11,516
    Likes Received:
    6,568
    Location:
    Elwood
    Watch out NZ
     
    windy likes this.
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,866
    Likes Received:
    18,414
    Location:
    South Co.
    East coast is going to pump big time if it pans out anything like that.
     
    #28 nfip, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
  29. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    677
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Looks a bit like May 28th 2000
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    That was a more sustained period IIRC
     
    jungfrau likes this.
  31. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    That escalated quickly :nerd:
     
  32. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Gold!
     
    Ozgirl, smitty484 and cin like this.
  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Was thinking it but didn't want to say it haha

    The current progression shows the front pass over the bight on the 25/26th and then the low form in its wake, before sliding SE toward Tassy and NZ.

    Hopefully this means the initial front will cool things down enough so by the time the Low gets into range of the Alps, temps will be cold enough for mostly snow and not much pre frontal.

    Not that Pre Frontal matters when there is no base, but the more moisture that falls as white instead of clear is always the dream
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still plenty of divergence between models
    Eg EC

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,953
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Yeah, there is still a lot of confusion but the models struggle in a normal year during shifting seasons let alone this year where we have almost skipped Autumn and are now heading from Summer straight into Winter so I am expecting major model carnage.

    At worst, we will at least find out which runs are more accurate.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  37. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,063
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    949!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:
     
  38. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The Lows are definitely liking the above average SST East of Tassy. NZ will cop a flogging over the next few weeks IMO
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,856
    Likes Received:
    14,330
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Tonights GFS is a bit WOW.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    11 feet storm
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    2,134
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    something is very wrong here me thinks:rolleyes: , 11 foot storm - 330 to 340 cm in 1 hit !!!! Besides being most probably an all time record , think of the carnage. Heaps of snow on the hills and no way to get to it. Every river for maybe 100 kms would be flooded.
    No I not like this at all ROFLROFLROFLROFL
     
    #42 Kelpieboy, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
    malas1 likes this.
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    GFS does seem to get a bit randy 180 hrs out though. Especially in May.

    [​IMG]
     
  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,953
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Frog's on board with this one too...

    4cm

    lol
     
    Ozgirl likes this.
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still looking good on EC
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  47. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    521
    Likes Received:
    694
    Location:
    Redfern
    pic please?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Arguably the low is better positioned

    [​IMG]
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,611
    Location:
    wollongong
    spag going for a cutoff...which will promote moisture, but less cold air
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS is going for an ECL to screw it up a bit.

     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.