Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Might as well put it up.
    I'm not totally sold on it, but it sure looks good at the moment.

    GFS (06Z run)
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC (00Z run)
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Looks like its going to get very cold at times , I am seeing big negative numbers for all over the hills , NSW in particular.
     
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  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    The spag has spoken and it's screaming cold and snowy. IMO :thumbs:

    Come to papa.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Looks like a window of potential and that's about it imo.
    Divergence. Date range.
     
  7. rM788

    rM788 Active Member

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    To all the experts here, I am heading to the main range (Alice Rawson) on those dates..... How strong the wind would you guys predict at this stage..... Thanking you heap in advance.... Cheers.
     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    100km/hr+.

    Closely spaced isobars = strong wind.

    Would not be pleasant. You may end up with the Candian that is still out there.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still looking pretty solid on am runs.

    GFS
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    528 line up to the Alps!
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    yr no is saying the winds are going to be strongest on Thursday, then moderate over the weekend. Temps will be in the negatives with a horrid wind chill. Will be more pleasant by a fire in the pub IMO.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Pressure is good. Looks deep.
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It may be something but likely nothing. It looks short and sweet if anything. But the potential looks good at 48 hrs. So it may develop.

    Oh Dam I am in the wrong date range. Oh well. Nice start to the year for me.

    This system before may help to reinforce the winter pattern in my mind for the 28 May Forecast.

    At the moment with back to back Lows every second day its hard to look beyond 72 hrs. Although the Lows are not getting anywhere near the 36 degree Latitude. They are more interesting from a surfing point of view. Which is sort of normal as its mid MAY.

    NZ copping it though.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #12 7wombathead, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Corrected date range chart.

    I like these charts too.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. rM788

    rM788 Active Member

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  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Count the nodes..I think we may have a pattern for the winter
     
  16. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Surely this needs a mageddon tag ?
     
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  17. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    #olympicmageddon
     
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  18. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Please dont start that again
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The four Dayer looks promising

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    "The Opening Ceremony"

    Sorry CC
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS update


    Low stalling in the Tasman?

    Talk about a bombing low. 949 hPa? :eek:
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Little treat on the 23rd will set this up a bit IMO
     
  25. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    Tassy going to get very cold when that low stalls just to the east of it.
     
  26. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    I wonder if there will be enough snow for @Boodwah to tackle that line in Tassie he wants to do.
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Watch out NZ
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    East coast is going to pump big time if it pans out anything like that.
     
    #28 nfip, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
  29. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Looks a bit like May 28th 2000
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    That was a more sustained period IIRC
     
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  31. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    That escalated quickly :nerd:
     
  32. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Gold!
     
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  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Was thinking it but didn't want to say it haha

    The current progression shows the front pass over the bight on the 25/26th and then the low form in its wake, before sliding SE toward Tassy and NZ.

    Hopefully this means the initial front will cool things down enough so by the time the Low gets into range of the Alps, temps will be cold enough for mostly snow and not much pre frontal.

    Not that Pre Frontal matters when there is no base, but the more moisture that falls as white instead of clear is always the dream
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still plenty of divergence between models
    Eg EC

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, there is still a lot of confusion but the models struggle in a normal year during shifting seasons let alone this year where we have almost skipped Autumn and are now heading from Summer straight into Winter so I am expecting major model carnage.

    At worst, we will at least find out which runs are more accurate.
     
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  37. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    949!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:
     
  38. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    The Lows are definitely liking the above average SST East of Tassy. NZ will cop a flogging over the next few weeks IMO
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Tonights GFS is a bit WOW.
     
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  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    11 feet storm
     
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  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    something is very wrong here me thinks:rolleyes: , 11 foot storm - 330 to 340 cm in 1 hit !!!! Besides being most probably an all time record , think of the carnage. Heaps of snow on the hills and no way to get to it. Every river for maybe 100 kms would be flooded.
    No I not like this at all ROFLROFLROFLROFL
     
    #42 Kelpieboy, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    GFS does seem to get a bit randy 180 hrs out though. Especially in May.

    [​IMG]
     
  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Frog's on board with this one too...

    4cm

    lol
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still looking good on EC
     
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  47. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    pic please?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Arguably the low is better positioned

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    spag going for a cutoff...which will promote moisture, but less cold air
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS is going for an ECL to screw it up a bit.

     
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