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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.
GFS? a ECL....
well I never.
And axs is a bombing low (sub 980) passing over that little southern island thing.
Essentially cut off, but cold enough for snow at resort level imo.
Better than yesterday - when a super low west of Tassie was drenched with an inland trough from nw WA - was all warm tropical air over our mountains.
Yeah nahs got 45 cents for hotham coming up to the weekend. oh gawd
Is it just me or, whilst the uppers look cold. The thickness is not looking like it will delver far enough North. I'm looking at AXS and NCEP Ensemble.
Another nice little rain event on Thursday then drying out quickly.
Have a look at Kosciusko 60 ish?
Latest EC is like GFS this morning.
Yeah na has been liking this one for a few days now.
It's just EC data.
This looks good:
Latest run has reduced moisture by 50%. I was starting to get that first ride tingle too....
Still a decent amount if we get some follow up
I reckon its looking pretty good. Interesting modeled shape to the cold pool. Could be a very productive ECL given this shape.
Definitely, eyeing off a pre season main range run.
Whats really cool about the GFS forecast is that there is a sustained SW gale force cold air injection for approximately 148 hrs after the 27 th may.
This could be major event that will start the season this year. Easy two foot TM
7wambathead, that what I was liking myself. It has some depth to it so rather than a quick smash and grab, there is potential for a sustained cold air injection.
If it plays out, it is the shift we need to break the heatspell.
BOM 4 day is coming into line. Cant post pics from my mobile but as I mentioned earlier, it looks like the initial front triggers the low in the bight as it passes and then the secondary front will push it east and into range of the Alps.
Unfortunately, the leading front also looksto spin up an ECL off eastern Vic.
The ECL is just a recent development as CC posted above but even if it does form, it should hopefully stall the trailing high and we will see a sustained SW fetch.
The positive is that the Ceremony gets kicked off by a strong front packing cold air and there is at least one follow up front embedded in the SW feed.
BOM 4 day'er looks 'unstable' to me at the end of the run which is something that really gets my attention......that trough and NW infeed on the Wednesday chart looks amazeballs
Not really the place for this sort of thing but that my friends looks like twin valleys.......oh my I would not mind ripping a few turns down that
^ just under the Bluff into Cannonball. Sorry CC.
Much better frontal temps. But ECL component looks wet IMO.
There's a lot of big numbers being thrown around in this post!? Wow. Pre-season hype is blowing up.
Do we all have the same hymn sheet? I don't see low level snow falls or significant snowfall to call a 'dump'...
NW infeeds aren't going to do much at this point in time - you'll want them in July/August when it has super cold southerly injection/uppers.
Snow looks to arrive after the warmish pre-frontal rain Friday night/Saturday AM. Not much is looking to settle. Snow possible down 1600m Saturday - again I can't see much settling above 1800m
Was looking alot more sexy a few days ago. Hence the early froth. A man is entitled to get excited at this end of the season.
It just wouldn't be the same without a downgrade 4-5 days out.
I base my theory on 60 years experience. Early start, early finish. Late start late finish. So far everything points to the latter of the two. This weekend will be wet ( rain ) on Thursday and then just cold enough for some flakes after that as things dry up. I'm not a pessimistic person, just a realist. Winter will begin in about a months time like it normally does. Late starts usually have better seasons. As I said, experience tells me this, not a weather chart.
Hawt lenticular formations seen on cams - I predict it is getting colder and forecast sites are staying with it.
Not on board
BoM says snow above 1700m Thursday
Thursday 26 May
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1700 metres. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.
Chance of snow
60% at 1800m
10% at 1400m
0% at 1000m
The ground cooling starts with some rain then freeze over next few days
IMHO this system will deliver 20-30cm on the higher areas of the main range above 1800m and 10-15 at the higher resorts like Perisher and Hotham. While the resort level snow is unlikely to stick around too long what's looking encouraging is that overnight temps look low enough to allow snowmaking to start.
Out on a limb there @Philski1961
Looks like cross country skiing could be good in Nimmitabel on Friday
The middle road on this one.
Latest runs a relatively meh IMO
Mostly because the low pressure isn't expected to develop as much as was earlier predicted.
700 Hpa temps look rock solid. Moisture on Thursday may over lap with the cold Pool. Looks to be clearing Sunday though. Only 54 hrs event but I am liking early next week.
I like that more. Good looking forecasted ECL's on GFS tend to always suck the moisture east. A less developed low means more chance that moisture falls on the Alps (Vic and NSW). IMO.
I really like the temps at 700 Hpa om Acess G, otherwise I would be meh too. Its definitely a unique system.
I'm struggling to understand why people are swinging on the model updates.... it looks wack ..cause the models don't have a handle yet.....
That's why there is a forum, otherwise it would get boring.
What d you like about early next week?
What's everyone's thoughts this morning? Are we waiting for the afternoon 00UTC runs?
My read of things is the models are picking up action a long way out but spotting out exaggerated and excitable outcomes.(phase 1) As the timeframes narrow they can conpletely lose interest (phase 2)and then bang 4 days out its on again with logical progressions. (phase 3)
Early next week is in phase 1. This system is deep in phase 2 switching to phase 3 with what 00utc goes with.
so usual transmission then.
Upper level cold pool is significant IMO, in relatively light winds the downdraft from interaction between this cold pool and moisture will determine any significant snowfall below 1700m.
May as well throw a dart at SE aus to determine the location of the cold air cause at this stage models are
More or less, however I reckon so far there has been a little less window extension required.
It's going to be cold enough, just need some moisture.
Thats the Vibe TM
Looking at the models , I think its the other way around.
GFS has our favourite wandering cold pool
EC suggests things kick off early on the 26th, with snow above 1800m.
It suggests things cool down afterwards, but there's less moisture then. IMO
Hiking out on blue bird days
Jane has called snow above 1300m. for Vic. She must know something.