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Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS? a ECL....
    well I never.
     
  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And axs is a bombing low (sub 980) passing over that little southern island thing.
    Essentially cut off, but cold enough for snow at resort level imo.

    Better than yesterday - when a super low west of Tassie was drenched with an inland trough from nw WA - was all warm tropical air over our mountains.
     
  3. motty

    motty Hard Yards

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    Yeah nahs got 45 cents for hotham coming up to the weekend. oh gawd
     
  4. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Is it just me or, whilst the uppers look cold. The thickness is not looking like it will delver far enough North. I'm looking at AXS and NCEP Ensemble.
     
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  5. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another nice little rain event on Thursday then drying out quickly.
     
  6. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest EC is like GFS this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah na has been liking this one for a few days now.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's just EC data.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. motty

    motty Hard Yards

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    Latest run has reduced moisture by 50%. I was starting to get that first ride tingle too....
    Still a decent amount if we get some follow up
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I reckon its looking pretty good. Interesting modeled shape to the cold pool. Could be a very productive ECL given this shape.

    Definitely, eyeing off a pre season main range run.

    Whats really cool about the GFS forecast is that there is a sustained SW gale force cold air injection for approximately 148 hrs after the 27 th may.

    This could be major event that will start the season this year. Easy two foot TM

    [​IMG]
     
    #62 7wombathead, May 21, 2016
    Last edited: May 21, 2016
  13. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    7wambathead, that what I was liking myself. It has some depth to it so rather than a quick smash and grab, there is potential for a sustained cold air injection.

    If it plays out, it is the shift we need to break the heatspell.
     
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  15. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
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  16. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM 4 day is coming into line. Cant post pics from my mobile but as I mentioned earlier, it looks like the initial front triggers the low in the bight as it passes and then the secondary front will push it east and into range of the Alps.

    Unfortunately, the leading front also looksto spin up an ECL off eastern Vic.

    The ECL is just a recent development as CC posted above but even if it does form, it should hopefully stall the trailing high and we will see a sustained SW fetch.

    The positive is that the Ceremony gets kicked off by a strong front packing cold air and there is at least one follow up front embedded in the SW feed.
     
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  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    BOM 4 day'er looks 'unstable' to me at the end of the run which is something that really gets my attention......that trough and NW infeed on the Wednesday chart looks amazeballs

    [​IMG]
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Not really the place for this sort of thing but that my friends looks like twin valleys.......oh my I would not mind ripping a few turns down that
     
  19. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^ just under the Bluff into Cannonball. Sorry CC.
     
  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Much better frontal temps. But ECL component looks wet IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a lot of big numbers being thrown around in this post!? Wow. Pre-season hype is blowing up.

    Do we all have the same hymn sheet? I don't see low level snow falls or significant snowfall to call a 'dump'...
    NW infeeds aren't going to do much at this point in time - you'll want them in July/August when it has super cold southerly injection/uppers.
    Snow looks to arrive after the warmish pre-frontal rain Friday night/Saturday AM. Not much is looking to settle. Snow possible down 1600m Saturday - again I can't see much settling above 1800m
     
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  22. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was looking alot more sexy a few days ago. Hence the early froth. A man is entitled to get excited at this end of the season.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    It just wouldn't be the same without a downgrade 4-5 days out.
     
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  24. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I base my theory on 60 years experience. Early start, early finish. Late start late finish. So far everything points to the latter of the two. This weekend will be wet ( rain ) on Thursday and then just cold enough for some flakes after that as things dry up. I'm not a pessimistic person, just a realist. Winter will begin in about a months time like it normally does. Late starts usually have better seasons. As I said, experience tells me this, not a weather chart.
     
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  25. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Hawt lenticular formations seen on cams - I predict it is getting colder and forecast sites are staying with it.
     
  26. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not on board
     
  27. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM says snow above 1700m Thursday

    Thursday 26 May
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1700 metres. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
     
  28. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ground cooling starts with some rain then freeze over next few days

    :out:
     
  29. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    IMHO this system will deliver 20-30cm on the higher areas of the main range above 1800m and 10-15 at the higher resorts like Perisher and Hotham. While the resort level snow is unlikely to stick around too long what's looking encouraging is that overnight temps look low enough to allow snowmaking to start.
     
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  30. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Out on a limb there @Philski1961 :p

    Looks like cross country skiing could be good in Nimmitabel on Friday
     
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  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The middle road on this one.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest runs a relatively meh IMO
    Mostly because the low pressure isn't expected to develop as much as was earlier predicted.
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    700 Hpa temps look rock solid. Moisture on Thursday may over lap with the cold Pool. Looks to be clearing Sunday though. Only 54 hrs event but I am liking early next week.


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I like that more. Good looking forecasted ECL's on GFS tend to always suck the moisture east. A less developed low means more chance that moisture falls on the Alps (Vic and NSW). IMO.

    I really like the temps at 700 Hpa om Acess G, otherwise I would be meh too. Its definitely a unique system.
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm struggling to understand why people are swinging on the model updates.... it looks wack ..cause the models don't have a handle yet.....
     
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  36. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #SDS
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That's why there is a forum, otherwise it would get boring. LOL
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What d you like about early next week?
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    What's everyone's thoughts this morning? Are we waiting for the afternoon 00UTC runs?
     
  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My read of things is the models are picking up action a long way out but spotting out exaggerated and excitable outcomes.(phase 1) As the timeframes narrow they can conpletely lose interest (phase 2)and then bang 4 days out its on again with logical progressions. (phase 3)
    Early next week is in phase 1. This system is deep in phase 2 switching to phase 3 with what 00utc goes with. :)
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    so usual transmission then.
     
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  42. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    Upper level cold pool is significant IMO, in relatively light winds the downdraft from interaction between this cold pool and moisture will determine any significant snowfall below 1700m.

    May as well throw a dart at SE aus to determine the location of the cold air cause at this stage models are :confused:
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More or less, however I reckon so far there has been a little less window extension required.
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's going to be cold enough, just need some moisture.
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats the Vibe TM
     
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  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking at the models , I think its the other way around.
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has our favourite wandering cold pool

     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggests things kick off early on the 26th, with snow above 1800m.
    It suggests things cool down afterwards, but there's less moisture then. IMO
     
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  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Hiking out on blue bird days
     
  50. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane has called snow above 1300m. for Vic. She must know something.
     
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