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Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yup...same things as most LOL.
    meanwhile
    pretty
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I've always found 700 HPa temps to be a better indicator of what happens in the mountains. Pressure looks to be quite low on Friday which is a plus.

    Not so sure about follow up though. AAO seems to be heading in the wrong direction...
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a presumption not a forecast.o_O
    Currently, not a dickie-bird in the models is suggesting anything remotely ski worthy after this weekend (if that is in fact what you mean by 'hiking blue bird').
     
    #103 POW_hungry, May 23, 2016
    Last edited: May 23, 2016
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  4. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    would be nice to see this hold up or improve...posting 'cause it is purdy

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think 7wombo was being sarcastic....;)
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 zulu GFS run

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wondering cold pool?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    the 18 and 00 zulu runs both have one!
     
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  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could go anyway with a wondering cold pool.
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    hope its not a sidebury slinger.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  12. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long way out but June 5,6 and 7 look good IMO
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not to me
    [​IMG]
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    336hrs out.

    Oh my lawl.

    IMO
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Been frothing on a late may session up the clubbie for ages now. So I will take it. ATM looks to be stabilizing Sunday.

    Picking a day to hike after fresh snow in stable ATM is a skill not a punt. Your life depends on it sometimes. Fresh tracks a plenty.

    The Saturday back up looks pretty interesting too on GFS.

    The over optimistic (sarcastic) scenario of Snot Thursday morning turning to thick snot Thursday Night. Freezing up Friday with a bit of the famed Ozzy snow through till Saturday night. Sure to find a chute holding it.
     
    #115 7wombathead, May 23, 2016
    Last edited: May 23, 2016
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Discussion on the date range only please.
     
  17. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    Mountainwatch upgraded to 20cm for Sat
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I do quite like EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Points in the right direction
     
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  21. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Copy.
    That South fetch.
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM

    Thursday 26 May
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 1800 metres at first, then 1500 metres toward evening. Winds northwesterly 15 to 30 km/h at first, reaching up to 40 to 55 km/h over the alpine peaks in the morning, turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Friday 27 May
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers about the ranges in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Possible snow shower or two above 1300 metres. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending west to northwesterly during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    50% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
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  23. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Purple Rain Purple Rain !
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still has 5 days of model runs to endure yet. Long way to go but it's a positive gain at this stage. Uppers still quite mild, doesn't leave much room for snow below 1600m. Main range may see a few cm's settle.
     
  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Srs punter level question.
    When do the Uppers go from mild to cold ?
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Depends on the 500hpa infeed..
    This one is cutoff
     
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  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Think he means what temp... -20 mild, -25 cold sort of thing?
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yea I get that ,
    I meant what temp do you consider "cold as opposed to" mild" when talking Uppers ?
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    -25 at 500 hPa is usually pretty good. Anything more than than you really want cold 850hPa temps to sustain the snow to levels we need.
     
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ahh sorry.
    I like neg 34
     
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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    My rough rule of ideal layer cake fun.
    500 hpa -30
    700 hpa -11
    850 hpa -4
    Happy with them
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, sub -30 degrees I would call cold enough for Aus Alps. Anything in the -20's is getting a bit warm @ 500hPa IMHO.

    For the record, GFS has Saturday's uppers (500hPa) around mid -20's
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's quite serious cold donza and doesn't happen that often.

    0 850
    -6 700
    -25 500

    Always like -2/-8/-30 though
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thx.
    I have always rule of thumb -6 at the resorts best for Oz .
    That does not apply to the Uppers of course.
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, that's pretty standard Australian "snow" conditions.
    Anything better is a bonus.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Often recently ?
    Nup
    However I could roll off heaps of times it has.

    Though it has to be said... a tongue of -34 near Tasmania pointing towards the Alps is great....
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    With a ripping South or SW fetch.
    # the vibe
     
  38. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    Anyone else finding the WZ charts not updating?
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    July 14th last year.
    Post by me..... was a wandering cold pool ECL setup

    This cold pool is bloody cold
    -6 to -8 at 850hpa
    500hpas of -34 to -36
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ec has.
    GFS hasn't
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Going off EC... snow on the CT's Saturday night in NSW looks a decent chance.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS too, that cold pool goes a fair way north.
     
  43. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah 'bloody cold' i.e. unusually so. I know it happens, but if that's what we needed for snow we'd not have much!
     
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  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    It does... plus the moisture injection looks coastal by that stage.
    Thats what sets up a NSW CT event.
    Regardless.
    If it stands.... I predict the media will go batshit crazy after the warm may
     
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  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You Victorians in your low level resorts do need some cold weather that's for sure.
    Last few seasons have been the marginal NW system that Perisher loves.
     
  46. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Speaking as a member of the media, I plan to do exactly that
     
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  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Niseko like. Not often do you get in Oz. But always frothing when it does.
     
  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Huh?
    twice ...3 times a season ... normal season.
    700 maybe not so much... but 850's and 500's for sure.
    (checked last year..... 2 fronts in a average season).
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Niseko gets ...
    -38....-40 500hpa or colder..
    -14 at 850hpa.
    hence its - 2...at 1000hpa ....
    (ive seen colder)
     
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  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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