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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.
yup...same things as most .
I've always found 700 HPa temps to be a better indicator of what happens in the mountains. Pressure looks to be quite low on Friday which is a plus.
Not so sure about follow up though. AAO seems to be heading in the wrong direction...
That's a presumption not a forecast.
Currently, not a dickie-bird in the models is suggesting anything remotely ski worthy after this weekend (if that is in fact what you mean by 'hiking blue bird').
would be nice to see this hold up or improve...posting 'cause it is purdy
I think 7wombo was being sarcastic....
00 zulu GFS run
Wondering cold pool?
the 18 and 00 zulu runs both have one!
Could go anyway with a wondering cold pool.
hope its not a sidebury slinger.
4 day rule
Long way out but June 5,6 and 7 look good IMO
Not to me
Oh my lawl.
Been frothing on a late may session up the clubbie for ages now. So I will take it. ATM looks to be stabilizing Sunday.
Picking a day to hike after fresh snow in stable ATM is a skill not a punt. Your life depends on it sometimes. Fresh tracks a plenty.
The Saturday back up looks pretty interesting too on GFS.
The over optimistic (sarcastic) scenario of Snot Thursday morning turning to thick snot Thursday Night. Freezing up Friday with a bit of the famed Ozzy snow through till Saturday night. Sure to find a chute holding it.
Stay on topic. Discussion on the date range only please.
Mountainwatch upgraded to 20cm for Sat
I do quite like EC this afternoon.
Points in the right direction
That South fetch.
Thursday 26 May
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 1800 metres at first, then 1500 metres toward evening. Winds northwesterly 15 to 30 km/h at first, reaching up to 40 to 55 km/h over the alpine peaks in the morning, turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.
Chance of snow
70% at 1800m
10% at 1400m
0% at 1000m
Friday 27 May
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers about the ranges in the west, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Possible snow shower or two above 1300 metres. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending west to northwesterly during the afternoon.
Chance of snow
50% at 1800m
30% at 1400m
Below 5% at 1000m
Purple Rain Purple Rain !
Still has 5 days of model runs to endure yet. Long way to go but it's a positive gain at this stage. Uppers still quite mild, doesn't leave much room for snow below 1600m. Main range may see a few cm's settle.
Srs punter level question.
When do the Uppers go from mild to cold ?
Depends on the 500hpa infeed..
This one is cutoff
Think he means what temp... -20 mild, -25 cold sort of thing?
Yea I get that ,
I meant what temp do you consider "cold as opposed to" mild" when talking Uppers ?
-25 at 500 hPa is usually pretty good. Anything more than than you really want cold 850hPa temps to sustain the snow to levels we need.
I like neg 34
My rough rule of ideal layer cake fun.
500 hpa -30
700 hpa -11
850 hpa -4
Happy with them
Yeah, sub -30 degrees I would call cold enough for Aus Alps. Anything in the -20's is getting a bit warm @ 500hPa IMHO.
For the record, GFS has Saturday's uppers (500hPa) around mid -20's
That's quite serious cold donza and doesn't happen that often.
Always like -2/-8/-30 though
I have always rule of thumb -6 at the resorts best for Oz .
That does not apply to the Uppers of course.
Yep, that's pretty standard Australian "snow" conditions.
Anything better is a bonus.
Often recently ?
However I could roll off heaps of times it has.
Though it has to be said... a tongue of -34 near Tasmania pointing towards the Alps is great....
With a ripping South or SW fetch.
# the vibe
Anyone else finding the WZ charts not updating?
July 14th last year.
Post by me..... was a wandering cold pool ECL setup
This cold pool is bloody cold
-6 to -8 at 850hpa
500hpas of -34 to -36
Going off EC... snow on the CT's Saturday night in NSW looks a decent chance.
GFS too, that cold pool goes a fair way north.
Yeah 'bloody cold' i.e. unusually so. I know it happens, but if that's what we needed for snow we'd not have much!
It does... plus the moisture injection looks coastal by that stage.
Thats what sets up a NSW CT event.
If it stands.... I predict the media will go batshit crazy after the warm may
You Victorians in your low level resorts do need some cold weather that's for sure.
Last few seasons have been the marginal NW system that Perisher loves.
Speaking as a member of the media, I plan to do exactly that
Niseko like. Not often do you get in Oz. But always frothing when it does.
twice ...3 times a season ... normal season.
700 maybe not so much... but 850's and 500's for sure.
(checked last year..... 2 fronts in a average season).
Niseko gets ...
-38....-40 500hpa or colder..
-14 at 850hpa.
hence its - 2...at 1000hpa ....
(ive seen colder)