Predictions May 26-30th System

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7wombathead

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Niseko gets ...
-38....-40 500hpa or colder..
-14 at 850hpa.
hence its - 2...at 1000hpa ....
(ive seen colder)
That would be epic.

You do get temps like that In OZ but not when its puking. Okay you do sort of for a few hours.

Dig up the data.

I might need to thaw out and re calibrate.
 

7wombathead

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Obviously I am working tonight.

so plenty of time to procrastinate.

A cracker 500 Hpa from the past without temps.
IDX0099.201008011200.gif


Bloody hard to get a legit -30 Hpa. I got one -28 500Hpa.

IDX0099.201007150000.gif
 

7wombathead

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I calibrated this May event to some good events in 2010. Now Saturday is seeing -26 c for almost 24 to 48 hrs.

Not to shabby.

IDY20002.T-500hPa.114.png
 

mick chopps

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What elevation are we generally saying 700hpa falls at?
I've seen the charts posted and curious of the variation to the 850hpa elevation of roughly 1650m.
 

Vermillion

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Most of the time when people are looking at height charts they are looking at shear levels through the atmosphere, and not generally a particular temperature at a particular height. For example an MSLP temp around 14C for Melbourne would normally be borderline for snow, but if you had a particularly low 850mb or 700mb temp (say -4C for 850) then you have a bucketload of shear and you will get good snow and cooler temps. Conversely, sometimes you'll see a 12C max for Melbourne which usually is go time for snow, but 850mb temps of 2C and it's borderline. Of course, you can keep going up through to around 500mb levels to check the temps there too, and that gives you another indication on the shear through the atmosphere and the type of weather (snow-wise) you can expect.
 

POW Hungry

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Most of the time when people are looking at height charts they are looking at shear levels through the atmosphere, and not generally a particular temperature at a particular height. For example an MSLP temp around 14C for Melbourne would normally be borderline for snow, but if you had a particularly low 850mb or 700mb temp (say -4C for 850) then you have a bucketload of shear and you will get good snow and cooler temps. Conversely, sometimes you'll see a 12C max for Melbourne which usually is go time for snow, but 850mb temps of 2C and it's borderline. Of course, you can keep going up through to around 500mb levels to check the temps there too, and that gives you another indication on the shear through the atmosphere and the type of weather (snow-wise) you can expect.
Well said, in layman's terms, it's all relevant to atmospheric layering.
 
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Vermillion

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CC would probably be able to correct my figures here, but for a good snow-bearing system that has the opportunity to develop serious deep heavy snow, im looking at the following:
Central Low Pressure - As close to 1000hpa or lower as it can be
MSLP Temperature - <12C for Melbourne
850hpa Temperature - <-2C
500hpa Temperature - <-26C

That kind of thing would ordinarly produce the real deal, providing there is adequate moisture.
 

Claude Cat

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CC would probably be able to correct my figures here, but for a good snow-bearing system that has the opportunity to develop serious deep heavy snow, im looking at the following:
Central Low Pressure - As close to 1000hpa or lower as it can be
MSLP Temperature - <12C for Melbourne
850hpa Temperature - <-2C
500hpa Temperature - <-26C

That kind of thing would ordinarly produce the real deal, providing there is adequate moisture.
Pretty much on the money. IMO

And yes, you highlighted a very important component - the moisture. Although a low pressure will ordinarily make sure that happens.
 

Karicta

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Aug 9, 2011
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Yeah I just checked that too.

Pretty sure Jane said on news that 'should' have tropical moisture, so......
 

Donza

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Spag tells the story.
Cutoff/ECL over near Gabo island.
Injecting moisture.into a cold pool on the western flank.
This could be very interesting.
spag_f096_shbg.gif
 

Donza

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BOM/AXS certainly has Thursday certainly is an upgrade, whilst Fri/Sat looks marginal for much precip. with >1012hPa come Friday PM.
which AXS?
R is beating a different drum to its slower big brother.
Its at odds with BOM meteye as well.
 

Claude Cat

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IMO latest model runs aren't quite as cold as yesterday.
Thursday & Friday look the best - EC has the system clearing faster than GFS
IMO 10-20cm out of this at this stage.
 

Snorkler

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Here are my thoughts:
http://www.janebunn.net/latest-posts
An out of season post before snow forecasts start on June 10...

I took from that. whilst early snow is nice, the best thing about this system is the cool air heading north and cooling the Inner country down reducing the warm northerly winds. This is setting us up so snow that falls is less likely to disappear between systems.
 

7wombathead

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This thing has all the hallmarks.

Cold uppers

Moisture injection

Cutoff Low but connected to cold air feed.

Follow up dump.

-30 uppers on Saturday
 

cookieman

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This next event and follow up is NOW looking DELICIOUS.
I predict that by this weekend natural snow plus man made will give enough cover to get pics of first skiing for the season and winter wonderland marketing happening.
Seriously, this should give us good base to build on for the start of this season.
 

7wombathead

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This next event and follow up is NOW looking DELICIOUS.
I predict that by this weekend natural snow plus man made will give enough cover to get pics of first skiing for the season and winter wonderland marketing happening.
Seriously, this should give us good base to build on for the start of this season.
Who knows the season could be all over after next week. But it should be okay. IMO the bets snow in OZ is always in June and early July. Sun just get too strong later in the season.
 
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