Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That would be epic.

    You do get temps like that In OZ but not when its puking. Okay you do sort of for a few hours.

    Dig up the data.

    I might need to thaw out and re calibrate.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    i've seen it for 2 weeks in a row
    relentless
    with zero wind.
    FYI temp at 850 metres was -14 for that period.
    EVERY day
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I am into that.

    Can we dig up the charts. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/archive/

    I will have a look. I am keen to understand that pattern.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's pretty much our standard snow bearing system in Australia.
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Obviously I am working tonight.

    so plenty of time to procrastinate.

    A cracker 500 Hpa from the past without temps.
    [​IMG]

    Bloody hard to get a legit -30 Hpa. I got one -28 500Hpa.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I though we were talking Oz. I am thinking are U tripping. LOL
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I calibrated this May event to some good events in 2010. Now Saturday is seeing -26 c for almost 24 to 48 hrs.

    Not to shabby.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    30cm on the way.
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What elevation are we generally saying 700hpa falls at?
    I've seen the charts posted and curious of the variation to the 850hpa elevation of roughly 1650m.
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's generally above the mountains we have here in AUS.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You need to factor in the pressure of the system. Eg if a low pressure system occurs, that altitude is lower. For high pressure systems it's higher.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a very general rule (subject to circumstantial pressure), use this:
    http://www.boqueteweather.com/millibars_altitude.htm
     
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  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most of the time when people are looking at height charts they are looking at shear levels through the atmosphere, and not generally a particular temperature at a particular height. For example an MSLP temp around 14C for Melbourne would normally be borderline for snow, but if you had a particularly low 850mb or 700mb temp (say -4C for 850) then you have a bucketload of shear and you will get good snow and cooler temps. Conversely, sometimes you'll see a 12C max for Melbourne which usually is go time for snow, but 850mb temps of 2C and it's borderline. Of course, you can keep going up through to around 500mb levels to check the temps there too, and that gives you another indication on the shear through the atmosphere and the type of weather (snow-wise) you can expect.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well said, in layman's terms, it's all relevant to atmospheric layering.
     
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  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    CC would probably be able to correct my figures here, but for a good snow-bearing system that has the opportunity to develop serious deep heavy snow, im looking at the following:
    Central Low Pressure - As close to 1000hpa or lower as it can be
    MSLP Temperature - <12C for Melbourne
    850hpa Temperature - <-2C
    500hpa Temperature - <-26C

    That kind of thing would ordinarly produce the real deal, providing there is adequate moisture.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pretty much on the money. IMO

    And yes, you highlighted a very important component - the moisture. Although a low pressure will ordinarily make sure that happens.
     
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy drummed pressure into my head for so long it actually stuck.
     
  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Slightly lagging cold pool. But looks like the moisture and temps align sufficiently for 20-25cm. imo.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good.
    But looking longer term I don't think this will stick. Pretty warm on the extended's
     
  22. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This
     
  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom snow levels;1300 Thursday, 1100 Friday

    Looks to be drying up to me
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS-R still has a bullseye of 30-40mm on thurs
     
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  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I just checked that too.

    Pretty sure Jane said on news that 'should' have tropical moisture, so......
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag tells the story.
    Cutoff/ECL over near Gabo island.
    Injecting moisture.into a cold pool on the western flank.
    This could be very interesting.
    [​IMG]
     
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Then
    still connected........
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Meteye has snow for NSW from midday thursday until late Saturday
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM/AXS certainly has Thursday an upgrade, whilst Fri/Sat looks marginal for much precip. with >1012hPa come Friday PM.
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    which AXS?
    R is beating a different drum to its slower big brother.
    Its at odds with BOM meteye as well.
     
  31. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo special...
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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  34. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks Jane.
    Your predictions are always received with much respect.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO latest model runs aren't quite as cold as yesterday.
    Thursday & Friday look the best - EC has the system clearing faster than GFS
    IMO 10-20cm out of this at this stage.
     
  36. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    I took from that. whilst early snow is nice, the best thing about this system is the cool air heading north and cooling the Inner country down reducing the warm northerly winds. This is setting us up so snow that falls is less likely to disappear between systems.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    # The Vibe is good.
    Great read Jane , easy to understand the logic and changing of the Season .
     
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  38. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    It's all about #theVibe
     
  39. Marcus Australius

    Marcus Australius Hard Yards

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    From all the info that I have seen from you lot and Jane's good read, I Predict that this will deliver a nice 15 to 20cm at Perisher by Saturday night.
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO that will change on 00zulu
    going off the spag
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access R and 4 Day breeding new optimism.

    I am off to wax me board.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This thing has all the hallmarks.

    Cold uppers

    Moisture injection

    Cutoff Low but connected to cold air feed.

    Follow up dump.

    -30 uppers on Saturday
     
  43. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This next event and follow up is NOW looking DELICIOUS.
    I predict that by this weekend natural snow plus man made will give enough cover to get pics of first skiing for the season and winter wonderland marketing happening.
    Seriously, this should give us good base to build on for the start of this season.
     
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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Who knows the season could be all over after next week. But it should be okay. IMO the bets snow in OZ is always in June and early July. Sun just get too strong later in the season.
     
    #194 7wombathead, May 24, 2016
    Last edited: May 24, 2016
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking a little cut-off on the 00 zulu GFS run. IMO
     
  46. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's looking as though winter might finally be approaching :woohoo:
     
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Off that Claude..
    snow in unusual spots in NSW IMO.
    them side sliding cold pools can be funky
     
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  49. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    windy with snow Saturday and Sunday as per forecast at present - when I will be at Perisher
     
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  50. Boglumdrump

    Boglumdrump First Runs

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    Great thread crew. Following with interest (and a heightened sense of anticipation) Bring it on......
     
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