Predictions May 26-30th System

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DidSurfNowSki

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Thursday 26 May
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to southwesterly in the late morning and early afternoon.

Chance of snow
40% at 1800m
0% at 1400m
0% at 1000m

Friday 27 May
Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the west, near zero chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Chance of snow
40% at 1800m
30% at 1400m
Below 5% at 1000m

Saturday 28 May
Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to southwesterly during the morning.

Chance of snow
60% at 1800m
50% at 1400m
10% at 1000m
 

SnowBound

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Jul 7, 2007
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@Donza CTs should see snow with those cheeky wandering cold pools correct?

Lithgow had a pretty significant dump I remember last season from one of these cold pools yet literally over the hill had nothing. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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Donza

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@Donza CTs should see snow with those cheeky wandering cold pools correct?

Lithgow had a pretty significant dump I remember last season from one of these cold pools yet literally over the hill had nothing. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Yup
 

Vermillion

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trop_theta_sh.png

10-11 oclock on this chart(will update). Plenty of juice and not much standing in it's way. Uppers arent particularly cold though, although i'm not really concerned whether we see 10 or 30cms+ out of this one, it's still May.
 

Donza

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Every model has a different scenario

this ones up in the air (touche) folks
enjoy
latest spag is bonkers cut off.
 

Claude Cat

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I do like the EC update this evening
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_4.png


ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_5.png


I can see 20 to 30cm (NSW will do better I think c/o that low in the Tasman).
The trouble is that the models are still wobbling around a fair bit, so it's far from definite.
 

Donza

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I agree re EC
Tasmania effect will come into play if those isobars are too straight.
pressure is nice and low....
you'd think..being may that the tot tots would be mid to late 50's
looking at the bends in those isobars, you'd also expect some decent shear....as verm alluded to earlier that can promote low level snow falls.
 
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AJS

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FINALLY a chill in the air in Syd tonight (and quite a cutting one at that), predicting an appreciated turn of weather based on that and some anecdotal chat from some friends currently up at Thredbo.
 
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Donza

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FINALLY a chill in the air in Syd tonight (and quite a cutting one at that), predicting an appreciated turn of weather based on that and some anecdotal chat from some friends currently up at Thredbo.
*perisher
surely AJS needs to turn to the snowy side
 
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iagreewithhim

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Sep 3, 2001
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A very long way from everybody
Well your Thursday front gave Perth a fair whack as it came through last night; as did the previous one on Saturday. Plenty rain and plenty cold. I do like the way those fronts are lining up, and I like the fact that they are well to the north for this time of year. We can only hope that it continues.
 

FourSquare04

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Sep 11, 2001
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Above average SST's in the southern tasman coming into play with the low set to 'bomb' once that colder air hits the warm water.....at least the system looks to turn into one big, mean mother and should suck some colder air up with that nice hook effect potentially kicking in towards Saturday.....plus potential for more follow ups with the high pressure belt broken down & weaker than usual?
IDG00074.gif
 

FourSquare04

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Sep 11, 2001
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Just had a look at the latest EC run - currently showing that High to get 'squashed' and move in a SE direction setting up a blocking effect which will inhibit follow ups, but we shall see what the 00UTC run gives us later today.....
 

Vermillion

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Just had a look at the latest EC run - currently showing that High to get 'squashed' and move in a SE direction setting up a blocking effect which will inhibit follow ups, but we shall see what the 00UTC run gives us later today.....

Yah but I feel the highs arent really that strong, so a decent system could push them around.
 
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mick chopps

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Yah but I feel the highs arent really that strong, so a decent system could push them around.
Even if that H parks itself for a day or two and we don't get a follow up I'm thinking that the cold air sucked up by that deepening Tasman low is gonna allow for bulk snowmaking for an extended period?
Not exactly season starter type stuff but will go a long way to resorts having ridable snow on opening weekend.
 

Vermillion

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Even if that H parks itself for a day or two and we don't get a follow up I'm thinking that the cold air sucked up by that deepening Tasman low is gonna allow for bulk snowmaking for an extended period?
Not exactly season starter type stuff but will go a long way to resorts having ridable snow on opening weekend.

Not a bad point. At this stage, the best result would be 30cms of natural, half of which would melt in the first day or 2, then a run of snowmaking to get those areas cooled and with enough cover to get up and running by opening weekend. Then at least you have a base to work on. You cant underestimate the importance of a solid base to set up your season, even in years where we've had decent snowfall (cumulative) the season can eat dicks because it's always falling on no base.
 

Chowder11

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Oct 21, 2003
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Starting to wind up outside.
My hands are cold at my desk today, thats a sign its getting cold.
 

Marquise de Kappy

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Starting to wind up outside.
My hands are cold at my desk today, thats a sign its getting cold.
Hear that. Here in Sydney office, have turned on the heater. I know its not that cold outside but we are in an old converted warehouse with very high ceilings and cement floors. Brrr but loving it!
 
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