Predictions May 26-30th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, May 19, 2016.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Latest GFS run has the low a fair way north on Friday.

    [​IMG]

    But another low SW of Tasmania on Saturday. Very complex system
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Good Canobolas setup.
     
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  3. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM (Snowies)

    Thursday 26 May
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1700 meters, lowering to above 1300 metres in the late evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon.

    UV Alert from 11:40 am to 12:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Friday 27 May
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the north in the early morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the west, most likely at night. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1300 metres. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon and evening.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    30% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    Saturday 28 May
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    70% at 1400m
    20% at 1000m
    Sunday 29 May
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Snow possible above 1200 metres. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
  4. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Snow in the gong?
     
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  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I am excited. If all this early precipitation falls as snow up high AXS R saying potential for 50cm up high over the next 72hours. Nice wet snot perfect for sticking to everything then freezing solid.
     
  6. Kieran

    Kieran Addicted Member

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    The great Aussie dream.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I've looked at it. No idea what's "whack" about it.
     
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  8. motty

    motty Active Member

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    Noticed that this arvo when showing a guy at work the maps. Big difference between the wind at snow level compared to the ground
     
  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Yep ,its the winds at the different levels going different directions.
    Cause for major instability, nice sign
     
  10. motty

    motty Active Member

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    I assume it's a positive thing for snow? More precipitation?
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Shear event = sustained precip right ?
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    This system has "unstable" written all over it.

    It's a 'developing' system and where it actually ends up 'developing' is the key to delivering a little bit of snow or quite a bit of snow....

    I notice BOM are being fairly conservative in their forecasts. Saturday to me looking quite interesting with fronts, embedded troughs. Notice the H sneaking in on Sunday?

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Weatherzone Canberra 3am for 26th says 5 degrees and rain.
     
  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Perfect weather for Canberra :)
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    The jet streams going over Rockhampton. The cold air is trapped in a reverse current boundary layer. So this system should BOMB out.

    This looks wack but pretty insane. Not too sure how to interpret it.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Maybe all the goodness is moving to North Saturday.

    Or a low wind dump. That would be sick to ride when there is a base.
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Maybe Thursday is the Day. Negatives all ready happening.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Dedicated Member

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    South-west WA got a lot of rain out of this system that's coming your way. And a lot of wind and odd cloud formations. The instability is already well developed.

    How does the old saying go? "If it's below 15 and raining in Adelaide on Wednesday, it'll be snowing at Thredbo on Friday" - or something like that?
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Okay a bit research helps to clarify (me) the meaning wind shear. Its stratified wind component.
    [​IMG]

    Plus Lake effect. Lake-effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water, warming the lower layer of air which picks up water vapor from the lake, rises up through the colder air above, freezes and is deposited on the leeward (downwind) shores
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    When Cold moves across High SST over great Australian Bite.

    [​IMG]

    Equals

    [​IMG]

    Which means it could be big time event Thursday Saturday.
     
    #270 7wombathead, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    No need to over complicate it. Shear implies instability.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Learning as I go. Its one crazy event though.
     
  23. Normo

    Normo Addicted Member
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    Is that why I act irrationally after a haircut?

    :out:
     
  24. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    I predict much viewing of snow cams tomorrow morning
     
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  25. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC suggest it largely dries up overnight, apart from a short burst on Saturday morning.
    GFS has a little more in it though IMO
     
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  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Need that low in the bight to track east and stay down around melbourne.
     
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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yep you have to patient in OZ not overly optimistic. :deadhorse:
     
  30. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Looks, IMO that most of the moisture to follow will be in NSW and not Vic. Over the weekend 5-10 NSW, 0-5 Hotham
     
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  31. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    So, just a sprinkling above 1500m so far. There's got to be more to come, surely? That chart for Saturday looks promising.
     
  32. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    ...it's the 26th of May...:whistle:
     
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  33. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Still 4 weeks till winter IMO.
     
  34. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite Active Member

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    Just adding to that lake effect discussion. I lived in northern Michigan for a while and we'd get a heap of snow from lake effect every winter. It would show up on the precip radar in pretty random locations but once established had very defined ribbons of activity from west to east that could last a decent length of time but always petered out a little inland. If your ski resort happened to be under one then it was happy days - could produce some decent volumes when just down the road there was nothing.

    Lake Michigan (west to east) is about 100km in the northern area and Port Phillip is perhaps 40-50km at best? Not sure if that's enough to generate the same effect though - rain of course, not snow!

    Sorry if it's off topic.
     
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  35. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    It's probably another system deserving of its own thread, but next Wednesday/Thursday might be an awesome follow up or deliver nothing but rain. If the trough moving through then bombs enough there could be thicknesses sufficient for snow.
    These thought systems have delivered good falls in the past, be interesting to see what happens.
     
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  36. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    How's it looking for Central Tablelands on Saturday in the recent updates?
     
  37. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    1200 metres
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I want to agree but that high is an absolute mother - It's domination looks to be SST fueled and largely coastal. I am not into it.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Midday Saturday looks like your best bet, but moisture may be a little scarce. TBC.
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Its not looking good for the snowies.

    Jet stream is gonna suck this north

    Oh well back its back to the drawings= board. Looks like a big event 240 hrs. Is it showing up on the spag.

    Its almost as if the Alps will act as one big rain shadow. But interesting to see how it pans out.

    [​IMG]
     
    #290 7wombathead, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Nah, they'll be OK (IMO).
     
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  42. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    The AAO looks to be going -ve so should keep it cool enough to make snow.
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Right to left mover as well.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    it's trending negative but GFS forecasts have it staying positive until at least 3rd June.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    That low at 980 appears to be coming back, remember the model at 950 lol, if it gets much closer it will begin to affect the snowies
     
  48. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Though NOAA have the many options pointing in a more negative direction.
     
  49. Belly

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    Couldn't see another thread - any potential in that pool of moisture over SA showing on today's run of the 2 June weatherzone synoptic?
     
  50. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    This current system going through S.A. is very similar to last year when the real cold stuff bypassed most of Vic and headed up into central N.S.W. Snow up north but not down south.
     
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