May 28 - 3rd June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Placebo, May 17, 2006.

  1. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    Looks like interesting dates.

    Although at the moment the extended GFS, GASP and MRF all have it peaking over WA. It seems to be squashed in between a couple of highs (GFS has a High to the west, south and east of the system).. So depending on what these highs do, It could peak further east, or die completely.

    [​IMG]
    But currently looking at leased like a wet and cold couple of days for WA

    **EDIT: Title Dates changed EDIT**
     
  2. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Its an interesting set up seems to be a high pressure under it which i havent seen for awhile and dont know the implications of that are? but its what 12days out or somthing bound to change
     
  3. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    is that an ECL to the right of the chart? excuse my q, im not a weather guro.
     
  4. Wagon

    Wagon Hard Yards

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    this is looking like a fizzer
     
  5. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    The EC model has it developing further south and won't affect VIC much at all.

    A lot of things have to fall into place before something dramatic such as this eventuates.

    fizzha...
     
  6. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Deleted due to ASCII swearing
     
    #6 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 19, 2006
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  7. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    Aint looking all that crash hot at the moment, but give it time. Latest EC is actually showing cold air pushing up from a nice southerly fetch on the 29th
     
    #7 Placebo, May 19, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    29th is the way to go. moisture looks like it will be left behind from a low earlier in the week, hopefully the front will have cool enough air for it to remain as snow. looks good atm.
     
  9. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    Due to the highs, this sytem has been pushed back couple of days so ive changed the dates to the title. Its a tad hard to tell but im pretty sure its all still the same system that I was talking about a couple of days ago.

    I know we are going along way out here, but extended GFS is looking very nice for the 1st!

    [​IMG]
     
    #9 Placebo, May 21, 2006
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  10. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    +264 hours [​IMG] out imagine if it stayed like that though 20cm and bloody cold!
     
    #10 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 21, 2006
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  11. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Thats crazy!!! Expecting a downgrade this far out, we shall see...
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    pressure is still very high. hmm. if that comes off then i will personally go up and take photos. there's another one coming say 4/5 days later, but looks to have too much tropical influence in it.
     
  13. carl-jay

    carl-jay First Runs

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    holy hell!!! [​IMG]
     
    #13 carl-jay, May 21, 2006
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  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    carl-jay - read +264 GFS. [​IMG] but still good to dream.
     
    #14 Vermillion, May 21, 2006
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  15. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    lets keep this dream alive.....noice chart
     
  16. carl-jay

    carl-jay First Runs

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    yeah i know, but still...
     
    #16 carl-jay, May 22, 2006
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's only 10cm... :rolleyes:
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    and how much do we have at the moment? :p
     
    #18 Vermillion, May 22, 2006
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  19. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    can someone with a silver account go and have a butchers to see how much of that +264 is left?
     
  20. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    There has been a significant downgrade in the +252 run (1100 EDT 1st June), it still has the 540 line tucked up over Victoria, just not very much moisture (about 5mm)
    Take this with salt (This is my first attempt at a long range snow forcast!), but GFS is pretty consistant with the charts from the 28th-1st/2nd - ie - not showing any really weird/impossible setups - I think it looks like the goods may arrive a little earler, around tuesday/wednsday (30th/31st) in the form of a very strong SW (Good for Baw Baw/Buller again [​IMG] ) with about 15cm falling for those two resorts, 10cm for the rest. However, GFS has the cold weather hanging around for the next few days as well, so I think its possible to see accumulation of another 10cm or so. Although, the +144/168 EC suggests the high won't clear from over Victoria as quickly, so we might see the above dates pushed back.
    The 10day precip chart also looks good for the week until the 5th of May, with up 35mm forcast for that period - Atleast it should get wet!

    My Tip is about 20cm of snow falling between 31st and the 3rd. [​IMG]
     
    #20 BrentC, May 22, 2006
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  21. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    I say season starter ! Fire up the guns around the 1st as a ground cooler.
    P.S BrentC the 5th of May has past old boy.
     
  22. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    Whoops! I meant June! :laugh

    Well my above prediction has been shot to pieces. The latest GFS has come in line with EC for 144/168 out (28th/29th), showing that big low forming and peaking off WA. This has meant that the extended GFS runs have pushed the cold stuff back a few days.
    If only we could bring the system about 2000km east - we'd be set!
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    welcome to season 2006 monkey :p

    i cant see much in this, sorry guys.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ..And how much do we have at the moment?! :p :p
     
    #24 POW_hungry, May 23, 2006
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  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the look of this one. BUt at 192 hr out...(will update)

    [​IMG]
     
  26. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    yup, just as I thought. That low was waaaay too intense to be for real. Fizzha!

    Having said that the GFS wasn't too far off because a low did develop anyway but too far to the east.
     
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GASP run still looks very sexy for June 1-2. Fingers crossed.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    im glad u get off to weather charts :p

    looks ok, nothing major, still too far out.

    ive always wondered, why do models downgrade all the time? why dont they unexpectedly upgrade as much as they downgrade? :p
     
  29. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    Just to **** us of I'm sure. [​IMG]
     
    #29 BrentC, May 24, 2006
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  30. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I expect it's because we always want "extreme" weather..ie 540 line to Rockhampton, enough moisture to fill Sydney harbour and pressures low enough to pop your eardrums....downgrading is really just moving the model back to normal values.
     
    #30 MisterMxyzptlk, May 24, 2006
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've always thought they would slightly exagerate Models to prepare for a worse case senario in terms of 'extreme' weather. (i.e. Tropical Cyclones, flooding etc.) in a bid to advertise that extreme conditions could be eventuating.
     
    #31 POW_hungry, May 25, 2006
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  32. daj

    daj First Runs

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    I am not sure of a detailed study of this in the Australian region, but I suspect this is actually a cognitive (mental illusion). Each day, the forecasts at longer range have a degree of chaotic noise (uncertainity) - sometimes this makes a system stronger and sometimes weaker. Those of us looking for cold stormy weather ("snow or weather nuts" :nerd: ) latch onto the scenarios which look extremely good, and overlook the boring ones. It is inevitable that the extremely good ones usually back off (they are favoured by the chaos leaning towards an extreme event), while the same goes for the extremely bad.

    Generally speaking, if a scenario looks too good to be true, it is.

    Does this make sense???

    DAJ
     
    #32 daj, May 25, 2006
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  33. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    There have been a few occasions where the models upgrade... usually mid-winter, and never pre-season. Maybe the May 200 dump??
     
  34. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    DAJ, I think you hit the nail on the head, if for some stupid reason I wanted it to be perfect sunny weather and I was watching a system as we know it downgrade, it would actually be an upgrade to that sunny weather I stupidly wanted..... while it is still called downgrading the system... think that made sense
     
  35. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    either way, we live in hope that this one delivers something as there isn't long before winter starts although you wouldn't think so with Sydneys weather
     
  36. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    ...yeah I know. Sydney is a borring weather place - hot humid and stinky one day, hot, dry and stinky the next - always stinky though...then you get a decent storm, but it sends down so much hail it is just devestating.
     
  37. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    not to mention wash the stinky into the ocean so we can swim in it.
     
  38. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    last real rainfall was 26th of february after a long, dry summer and before a long dry autumn. It rained 110mm in a couple of hours and i spent all night bucketing water out of our stupidly flooded basement. sucks getting 2 months of rain in a few hours :no:
     
    #38 churchy, May 25, 2006
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  39. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    gasp looks to be showing the high developing less than the gfs... waiting on the update, but i rate this run as an upgrade [​IMG] still not too much moisture (i don't trust gasp when it tries to tell me it'll be raining in the middle of a 1036 high :rolleyes: )

    [​IMG]
     
    #39 churchy, May 25, 2006
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  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    02 june looks good.
     
  41. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    i agree, looking much better this morning.

    it's a really nice setup (if it comes off) that could see 02/06 hooking up with 06/06 and a couple of fronts belting out snow for 3-4 days. of course we can always dream.... [​IMG]
     
    #41 churchy, May 26, 2006
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  42. sadcase

    sadcase First Runs

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    check out +144hr okay I know its a week away but it does look nice.
     
    #42 sadcase, May 26, 2006
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  43. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    if the 2nd of june low can just get a little further north we could have a few cutoffs spin through and this could link up with the 666 system

    [​IMG]
     
    #43 churchy, May 26, 2006
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  44. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    This is still looking OK but the low could be a bit further north. Still could go either way.

    Snowmaking has started at PB. If we don't get rain there should be 'some' skiing on the LWE.
     
  45. King Rex

    King Rex First Runs

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    Possibly a dusting on the 2nd
     
  46. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    nah, fizzed like berrocca
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well NSW might still get some snow tonight. It's been cold all day and there is some decent bands of moisture heading in from the south. Thredbo website is reporting snow flurries this afternoon. Looks like Victoria will miss out on anything that falls.

    Still looking good for later in the week as well. Latest GFS run is an improvement on yesterdays.
     
  48. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    dusting at Hotham
     
  49. fonc dawg @ peri

    fonc dawg @ peri First Runs

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    been dustin @ The P for a while ya :clown: ,s
     
  50. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    fonc dawg where you working?

    Hope you can give us some updates at night during the season. Only Victoria has some night cams.