Predictions May 9th-13th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 7, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The cool period continues with a reasonable amount of moisture over the weekend which should result in snow above 1800m, perhaps down to 1600m IMO

    Fairly westerly regime first up

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    EC showing 850hPa temps above zero, hence I don't believe this will be a low level snow event.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS

    [​IMG]

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    500hPa temps are not cold, in fact quite warm on Sunday.
    IMO the best chance of snow seems to be on Tuesday with the 2nd part of the system.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  4. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    The last so called front in this procession has been the one all along models have said will deliver a little punch, seems to have held or upgraded over this period IMO. As the high ridge finally compresses and gets the fetch more southerly, it allows better penetration of the last front rather than a westerly clipper. Thanks for the charts CC, always appreciated your maps posts chief.
     
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  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Low is too far east.
    Will be cold, which is good... but you want lows to below tassie at least when the cold air arrives... not mid tasman
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks drier by the run IMO
    [​IMG]

    Plenty cold enough
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    [​IMG]

    Should see snow to low levels in Tasmania. -35 uppers over lower Tas.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    TBH i'm surprised anyone got excited by.

    mid june and it would be snowmaking heaven
    dew points will be -15 and so with this
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Concur. It's a nice period, for May, but it isn't bringing that much snow IMO.
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its heater on...
    windy as hell here in the gong
    but blue skies too
    so needed
     
  10. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Sprinkle day by day for the next week. 1900m and above will start to fill in ever so slowly.
    With snow making below this level and a big fat high for a few days after all looks good for a slide opening weekend.
    IMO
     
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  11. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    At the end of the day, we have not had any Oz snow systems to talk about for 9 months, hence the minted vibes. We all know it's minimal, it's marginal, it's nothing really, BUT........it's something.
     
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  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm, Sunday looking seriously wet. Temps marginal, but yr.no has it cold enough at 1800 when the biggest moisture packet hits. Could go either way.......
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks 'OK'. Nothing great, but better than fog then sunny with no wind.
     
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  14. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bullseye for NZ.
     
  15. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Agree with this. Bit of a Baw Baw special though IMO.
     
  16. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    According to BOM, Buller seems to be forecast for more snow showers than Baw Baw. Is there much in this system for either?
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Baw Baw could do ok on Wednesday. Lake Mountain as well.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO there could be reasonable accumulations above 2000m on Sunday.
    Wednesday will be very cold, but really the moisture doesn't penetrate very far north.
    Tasmania should do very well next week.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the snowline will raise fast.
     
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  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  21. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Have to go back to the early 1960s to find 2 low level snow events in May in Tasmania...
     
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given we are at the point in the model cycle where they often go pessimistic, after often being optimistic this is encouraging, also expecting the window will be pushed out a day.
     
  23. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Seems unlikely ... data?
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday early afternoon looks ok for 2000m & above on the main range.

    [​IMG]

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  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC has some crazy cold temps for wednesday
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    -5C over Tasmania!
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    -35C 500 hPa over Tasmania

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    528 line ...

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    Jetstream.
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    Just lacks a good moisture feed.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO this system is going to go backwards .
    That high looks way too strong
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No much chop for the mainland. Good for NZ though.
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    spag is confident it will be cold ...
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What do you reckon, snow down to 300m in Tasmania on Wednesday?
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    sea level if you get some decent shear.
    moreso SW coast. It will warm a bit near hobart
     
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  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wee bit of snow in Hobart possible donna?
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    looks to SW for mine
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    spag as this.
    -cold
    -zonal
    -westerly
    -peaking too early
    [​IMG]
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Very zonal.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not surprising, ITCZ and highs havent really moved north, all it takes is for some slightly higher pressured centers to push everything zonal this time of year.
     
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  38. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    This could be interesting if it comes off IMO. Some decent totals forecast for Baw Baw by MountainWatch:

    [​IMG]
     
    #38 stridercdh, May 9, 2015
    Last edited: May 9, 2015
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  39. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Forgive me. Make that 1968.
    pwa54 says on weatherzone:

    Certainly amazing weather for early May! A colleague reported some snow flurries at the top of West Hobart (Fielding Drive)this morning.

    The 1978 Climate of Hobart BOM publication lists the number of occasions snow was below 500 metres on the mountain each month from 1952-1971. Snow was below 500 metres in 7 of those years and reported twice below 500 metres in May in 1959, 1963 and 1968
    .

    We also have the BOM monthly weather reviews to go on (published in booklet form and available at reference section at state library), which lists no May in the 1980s where there were 2 low level snow events in May. I define that as being listed as under 500m, not at 500m, so stipulated as a 400 or 300m level snow event ( they rounded to nearest 100 in their notes ).

    1990s and last decade...no double hit. ( Source: Personal memory which is very good plus many reliable sources from observers, and what have you. I am a local I pick up on whats out there )

    -----
    OK, turning to Wednesday...snowflakes near sea level? That's special. Last occasion this happened in May ( near certain ) was 1989 at the end of the month. Brief fall in the city in the morning.

    Thanks for adding the Tasmania commentary.
     
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  40. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Should this forecast be taken with a grain of salt? Seems to be in stark contrast with BOM.
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 10-15cm on Wednesday for Baw Baw.

    Although GFS doesn't really like it for Wednesday today.
     
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  42. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Tks, nice work.
     
  43. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I have seen 3 different for for as of substantial Snow for the next week.. 43cm here 70 odd there, 100 at Buller .. Etc etc..
    Either.. A) shots going down, 2 to 3 feet storm or
    B) There won be
    Where are all theses optimistic figures coming from?
     
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  44. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    IMO I think in light of these differing forecasts that nobody really knows what the future holds in terms of snowfall. I'd like to remain optimistic.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There is no way, IMO, Buller is getting a meter, 1/2 meter or even 30cm out of this.
    Best possible would be 10cm and that would be a very optimistic result.
     
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    If only this system came through in a month's time!

    IMO there's still a bit left in the tank over the next few days - could get another 10-15cm for Perisher
     
    #46 FourSquare04, May 10, 2015
    Last edited: May 10, 2015
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    it's could enough, but the moisture just isn't there IMO.
     
  48. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i still like the look of the front that is following... sitting off SW WA
    [​IMG]
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS more optimistic about the moisture than GFS, which I think it more on the money. I'm expecting about 10-15mm on Wednesday, which is GFS-levels of moisture, so half a foot of snow at resort level would be what i'm looking at too.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it's a quick system, so there wont be much hanging around.
     
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