The cool period continues with a reasonable amount of moisture over the weekend which should result in snow above 1800m, perhaps down to 1600m IMO Fairly westerly regime first up EC showing 850hPa temps above zero, hence I don't believe this will be a low level snow event.
GFS 500hPa temps are not cold, in fact quite warm on Sunday. IMO the best chance of snow seems to be on Tuesday with the 2nd part of the system.
The last so called front in this procession has been the one all along models have said will deliver a little punch, seems to have held or upgraded over this period IMO. As the high ridge finally compresses and gets the fetch more southerly, it allows better penetration of the last front rather than a westerly clipper. Thanks for the charts CC, always appreciated your maps posts chief.
Low is too far east. Will be cold, which is good... but you want lows to below tassie at least when the cold air arrives... not mid tasman
Looks drier by the run IMO Plenty cold enough Should see snow to low levels in Tasmania. -35 uppers over lower Tas.
TBH i'm surprised anyone got excited by. mid june and it would be snowmaking heaven dew points will be -15 and so with this
Sprinkle day by day for the next week. 1900m and above will start to fill in ever so slowly. With snow making below this level and a big fat high for a few days after all looks good for a slide opening weekend. IMO
At the end of the day, we have not had any Oz snow systems to talk about for 9 months, hence the minted vibes. We all know it's minimal, it's marginal, it's nothing really, BUT........it's something.
Hmmmm, Sunday looking seriously wet. Temps marginal, but yr.no has it cold enough at 1800 when the biggest moisture packet hits. Could go either way.......
According to BOM, Buller seems to be forecast for more snow showers than Baw Baw. Is there much in this system for either?
IMO there could be reasonable accumulations above 2000m on Sunday. Wednesday will be very cold, but really the moisture doesn't penetrate very far north. Tasmania should do very well next week.
This place. will get a tonne of snow http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Mount_Kosciuszko/long.html
Given we are at the point in the model cycle where they often go pessimistic, after often being optimistic this is encouraging, also expecting the window will be pushed out a day.
Not surprising, ITCZ and highs havent really moved north, all it takes is for some slightly higher pressured centers to push everything zonal this time of year.
This could be interesting if it comes off IMO. Some decent totals forecast for Baw Baw by MountainWatch:
Forgive me. Make that 1968. pwa54 says on weatherzone: Certainly amazing weather for early May! A colleague reported some snow flurries at the top of West Hobart (Fielding Drive)this morning. The 1978 Climate of Hobart BOM publication lists the number of occasions snow was below 500 metres on the mountain each month from 1952-1971. Snow was below 500 metres in 7 of those years and reported twice below 500 metres in May in 1959, 1963 and 1968. We also have the BOM monthly weather reviews to go on (published in booklet form and available at reference section at state library), which lists no May in the 1980s where there were 2 low level snow events in May. I define that as being listed as under 500m, not at 500m, so stipulated as a 400 or 300m level snow event ( they rounded to nearest 100 in their notes ). 1990s and last decade...no double hit. ( Source: Personal memory which is very good plus many reliable sources from observers, and what have you. I am a local I pick up on whats out there ) ----- OK, turning to Wednesday...snowflakes near sea level? That's special. Last occasion this happened in May ( near certain ) was 1989 at the end of the month. Brief fall in the city in the morning. Thanks for adding the Tasmania commentary.
I have seen 3 different for for as of substantial Snow for the next week.. 43cm here 70 odd there, 100 at Buller .. Etc etc.. Either.. A) shots going down, 2 to 3 feet storm or B) There won be Where are all theses optimistic figures coming from?
IMO I think in light of these differing forecasts that nobody really knows what the future holds in terms of snowfall. I'd like to remain optimistic.
There is no way, IMO, Buller is getting a meter, 1/2 meter or even 30cm out of this. Best possible would be 10cm and that would be a very optimistic result.
If only this system came through in a month's time! IMO there's still a bit left in the tank over the next few days - could get another 10-15cm for Perisher
AXS more optimistic about the moisture than GFS, which I think it more on the money. I'm expecting about 10-15mm on Wednesday, which is GFS-levels of moisture, so half a foot of snow at resort level would be what i'm looking at too.
