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Predictions May 9th-13th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 7, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And EC is showing even less.
     
  3. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    That's awesome, ground cooling and makes me think there's plenty in cold in lower latitudes, me like.
    A quick 4c drenching would more dissapointing. ( these are lame men's views)
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a bit too early for those ground coolers, but it looks like it'll be a sustained week of cold temperatures and high-level snow, so it's only going to be of help (better than 20C and northerly winds). The weather patterns arent settled in for winter weather yet, well traditional winter weather, so anything can happen while that adjusts.
     
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  5. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    I wonder if anything skiiable will come from this?(if only for a day)
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly with rock hoppers on a particularly well-groomed run. But it'll be melting from both sides (the warmish ground and the air) quickly.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Reckon you could find some on the main range, 2000m+
     
  8. Arne

    Arne One of Us

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    My bet Richard will be out above Karels at Thredbo skiing , taking photos and telling us all about it.
     
  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Things are definitely getting a winter pattern..I only hope we aren't experiencing june in may, an extended season is welcome an early short is not
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What we've missed so far this year is the freezing mornings with either frost or fog then warming up slowly to a cloud-less day before cooling down quickly as soon as the sun goes down, with minimal wind. I normally get a few weeks of that in May/early June, and it's kinda bypassed that this season so far. Here's hoping it doesnt turn up later on.
     
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  11. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    If I was writing a forecast today, it'd be:

    Monday - snow above 1800 metres turning to all rain this afternoon, then back down to around 1700 metres tonight. But, most of the precipitation will be this morning.
    Tuesday - snow to 1700 metres quickly changing to all rain, then rapidly turning to snow up high late afternoon and throughout alpine by the evening. Most of the precipitation in the afternoon - so it'll be a race to change to snow before precip eases.
    Wednesday - low level snow. Around 5cm for most resorts, but 10 to 15 cm for Buller and Baw Baw (and Lake Mountain, Stirling). Brief snow on Mt Dandenong in the morning. Icy hail and thunder in cold showers in Melbourne.
     
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    you just wrote it. Thanks.
     
  13. cloudbase

    cloudbase Hard Yards

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    Thanks Jane. Would you or anyone else have any idea how much the Brindabellas might recieve? And do you think it'll last til Friday?

    Planning for a hike, but its a massive roadtrip for me
     
  14. zar

    zar One of Us

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    What's going to happen in Tasmania, how low will the snow go down here?
     
  15. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Re:Brindies there is not a massive amount of moisture in the next system (wed-thur) but it will certainly be cold enough with freeze levels forecast to be at around 1200m ASL. Should see 5cm during this time , it will be still on the ground friday morning but will melt fast as temps rise rapidly friday .
     
  16. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    BoM forecast says 300m around Hobart :eek:
     
  17. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Tassie snowfalls have already started in central highlands around 1000m ASL around Liawanee, they will continue for next few days. It will become widespread and lower tomorrow as colder air moves in. The higher areas will see heavy snowfalls 20cm + favoring central highlands , Cradle mountain area and western tiers. Should be quite spectacular when sun comes out next friday.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    300m, I think we might see even lower. Not sure it will reach sea level, but it go close. Look at those temps. And 528 line just about gets to Tasmania.
     
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  19. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surfs up
     
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  20. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Next Friday, or this Friday? I don't see any indication of the Tassie weather setting in for two weeks.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and blizzards for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 2:08 pm EST on Monday 11 May 2015.

    Weather Situation
    A deep low pressure system located south of the Bight will pass to the south of Tasmania during Tuesday as an associated cold front moves across Victoria. The front will bring strong and squally west to northwest winds across southern Victoria, reaching gale force at times about the ranges and over coastal areas. Colder southwesterly winds will flow the change local hail and thunder possible and snow falls expected down to 600 metres Tuesday night.

    DAMAGING WINDS around 50 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts on Tuesday.

    BLIZZARD conditions are forecast for Alpine regions.
     
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  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love the B word.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it's over-rated.

    Just means it's going to be windy with some snow about. It doesn't mean it's going to snow a lot.
     
  24. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any chance of some Mt Dandy snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning CC?
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Based on the BOM forecast, for sure.
     
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  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    true but the wind makes it accumulate and pack.
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are you thoughts?
    I cant take the BOM seriously
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Touch and go. Just having a look at the 00 GFS update now.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks even colder on the 00 run.
    [​IMG]

    925 hPa temps around 1C, yeh I can see snow down to 600m, perhaps even lower. 500 hPa temps < -30C, so it's very cold.

    IMO
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)
    Issued at 12:39 pm EST on Monday 11 May 2015

    Catchments in the east of the Greater Melbourne area are approaching saturation following recent rainfall.

    Showers are forecast for the next few days with accumulations up to 50mm possible by the end of Wednesday.

    Stream rises have already been observed in response to the recent rainfall. With the forecast rainfall minor flooding may develop in the eastern Greater Melbourne catchments from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
     
  31. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM, poss snow above 900 M CT's and Blue Mtns Wednesday
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    7am Wednesday 925 hPa temps might give you the idea ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I would think much lower than 900m in NSW (at least in southern parts) around this time.
     
  33. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    the moisture will be the thing.. will be banking on some quirky local cloud formation.
     
  34. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Really?
    I would have thought greater Melbourne (east) would need well in excess of 50mm to get flooding.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The key thing is this "approaching saturation" - given the amount of moisture about in the soil, significant runoff is expected.
     
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  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cold as....
     
  37. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for our storages which are sitting at 69% overall. If they're already saturated then we should get decent run off
     
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  38. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Winter doona time, real cold is about to start.
     
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  39. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I observe I've been on the winter doona for 2 weeks, but sleeping on top of it! :eek:
    Great to see this last front outta the batch has seen a fair upgrade last few days, was always going to be cold given the deep southerly fetch, but snow lowering to 6oo metres tomorrow arvo is wicked. A fair bit of instability in the system too, thunder snow is good while no lifts are spinning IMO
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    It's going to be cold.
     
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blow the cobwebs out of the snow guns.
     
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  42. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey CC, where do those meteograms come from? Would be keen on seeing Baw Baw...
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  44. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might have thought Baw Baw more like 20cm. Might go for a stroll tomorrow arvo...
     
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  45. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Was thinking of heading up to BB on Thursday toward the tail end of the cold snap. I hope there is something left to at least walk in, I doubt it will be more substantial than that. (Read: no wishful pre-season ski :()
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM still has snowfalls down to 300m for Tasmania.
    600m for Victoria.
     
  48. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Walk? .... Lucky to get up there ;)
     
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  49. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could well be ski-able, but you would need to take a chain saw, I think. Anyway, my physio says I am not allowed to ski until next month (fantasising about a May b/c tour on the plateau). Running, jumping, getting ready.
     
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  50. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    I dunno if I'd brave the backcountry on the plateau right now, especially since access via St Gwinear would be treacherous with higher risk of trees blocking the road than Baw Baw. But then I'm mad enough to brave the road up to Baw Baw on Thursday (hopefully they've cleared access), since BOM has forecast the winds may decrease somewhat by then (at least in comparison to today! :eek:).
     
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