Event May The 4th - Cut Off/Upper Level Low

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Star Wars Cut Off Low?
GIF_SOLO_Theatrical_Chewie_HeadShake.gif

It's dipping in and out of models with varying levels of intensity but certainly looking to have stuck on global Models.

EC Determ sticking to a bullish outcome, precip-wise.
The 'fuel on the fire' lies in the tropical NE'ly component which draws from moisture-laden region of the SPCZ. Coastal regions take note.
Screen Shot 2021-04-28 at 9.56.36 pm.png


Nonetheless, it looks to affect at least 5 states/territories by some form of WX influence.
GFS00z:
gfs_z500_mslp_aus_31.png


Diurnal May maximum records are on the line (mainly NSW & SA) IMO.
gfs_T2ma_aus_25.png
 

snowgum

A Local
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May 4, 1999
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EC's Determs trajectory (12Z) puts a lot of weight on Vic being in the South/South East of the ULL.
Screen Shot 2021-04-29 at 8.04.03 am.png

Vic? Looks wet on the coast, Stretzleckis, Baw Baws and probably Snowy & Wellington Plains - all well south of the main alps.

Little moisture left for Hotham and Falls but if it’s mainly liquid (and only early May), it won’t matter.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Vic? Looks wet on the coast, Stretzleckis, Baw Baws and probably Snowy & Wellington Plains - all well south of the main alps.

Little moisture left for Hotham and Falls but if it’s mainly liquid (and only early May), it won’t matter.
Posted in daily weather chat, not snow weather chat. Head to Autumn thread re: snow and alps influence.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Whilst EC 00z suggests the cold pool has a Adelaide inbound trajectory with 500mb upper level not nearly as cold.
Still seeing big model-to-model divergence.

EC Determs (00z) 500mb temps & Geo Pot Heights:
upload_2021-5-1_16-54-28.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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AXS-C playing model diplomat as usual.
UL/500mb cold pool now separated by a 150/200km spread across AXS, EC & GFS on today's 12Z runs. Cold pool now will head North through Western Vic. GFS has done well here in recent runs.

Trentham region above 750/800m still a chance at sago/sleet IMO.

AXS - C
upload_2021-5-2_10-2-57.png


EC
upload_2021-5-2_10-3-12.png


GFS
upload_2021-5-2_10-6-4.png
 

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davidg

Part of the Furniture
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NW Cloud band approacheth. Central Tableands have picked up a decent drop with 18mm at Orange and 16mm at Bathurst.

Less has fallen further north but they should see some more rain as today progresses. Has been 25 days since the last rainfall here in Glenbrook so looking forward to a bit of moisture after this extended dry run.
 

Steve777

One of Us
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The rain band has now entered Sydney. It will soon put an end to the longest dry spell for a while: 24 days at Sydney OH, or 26 if you ignore 0.2 on April 10; 25 days at Bankstown (ignoring a couple of 0.2's). The forecast rainfall for Sydney over the next few days: 19-44 mm.

Good to see widespread falls between 10-24 mm to 9:00 across the Central West and South West, with some falls over 25 mm around the ACT, Southern Highlands and Snowy.

Just went outside. It's grey and gloomy with an unpleasant mix of damp and smoke, trying to rain.

(EDIT: corrected length of Sydney OH dry spell for no rain recorded to 9:00).
 

Steve777

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The rain band looks to be clearing Sydney for now. Falls across Sydney have been around 4-8 mm in most suburbs, nearly all of which has fallen since 9:00 AM.

However, the rain will be back, with the new forecast having bumped up the total rainfall for Sydney for the next two days to 25-45 mm, with possibly another 10 mm on Friday. For Penrith the three day forecast total is 20-37 mm.

Today felt Wintry with the temperature hovering around 16° all day. Maxima across Sydney were around 16-18°, mostly around mid-morning. Tomorrow looks similar before a return to sunny and unseasonably warm.
 
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davidg

Part of the Furniture
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Wet and miserable old day out this way with 8mm and a maximum of 14c .

The smoke mixed in with the rain really added to the gloom, it was quite thick at time and has that stale dank smell that you would recognise if you have ever poured water onto a still smoldering camp fire.
 

Homer

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Didn't get above 17 here today, and is currently 14.4 deg's.
Temp started dropping at 10 am when the rain started falling. It felt noticeably cooler, even though it was only a couple of degrees. It didn't help that a slight breeze sprung up at the same time.
Rain has been very light but consistenent.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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A great day for indoor work. Rugged the horses last night and they are warm n dry. 8 degrees and wet on Jindy North Shore with ramped up rainfall for tomorrow.

Nice rain, pity we won't be skiing.
 

Steve777

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There has been a bit more rain over Sydney than forecast, mostly in the range 10-20 mm, a bit lower on the Northern Beaches and in the NW. Since 9:00, Chatswood has had 12 mm, Sydney OH 16 mm.

Falls were heavier on the South Coast, with a few readings over 100 mm in the Bega Valley.

The BOM are still going for 15-25 mm today in Sydney but only 6-10 mm in Penrith.
 

Steve777

One of Us
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Yesterday was Sydney's coldest day of the season so far for maxima, with OH reaching just 17.1° (coldest since November 5), Bankstown 15.9° (coldest since October 25) and Penrith 16.0° (coldest since October 25).

The rain's eased off since 9:00, although the BOM are still expecting 15-25 mm for Sydney in their latest update. It's still raining very lightly here but nothing has been recorded at OH (10 km distant) since 9:00 and little or none has been recorded across Sydney except for a millimetre or two in the South..
 
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