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Event May The 4th - Cut Off/Upper Level Low

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Apr 28, 2021.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Star Wars Cut Off Low?
    [​IMG]
    It's dipping in and out of models with varying levels of intensity but certainly looking to have stuck on global Models.

    EC Determ sticking to a bullish outcome, precip-wise.
    The 'fuel on the fire' lies in the tropical NE'ly component which draws from moisture-laden region of the SPCZ. Coastal regions take note.


    Nonetheless, it looks to affect at least 5 states/territories by some form of WX influence.
    GFS00z:
    [​IMG]

    Diurnal May maximum records are on the line (mainly NSW & SA) IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Donzah Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its the right time of year.....
     
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  3. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS IVT indicating strong moisture feed - timing & positioning will be critical for what impacts the mainland gets

     
  4. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's 12Z run ensemble spaghetti for potential positioning and timing of low at 500hpa level.

     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks really divergent under Adelaide and Mount Gambier. That’s where models need to find resolve IMO.
     
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  6. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, and it looks a lot cleaner on the EC ensemble compared to more uncertainty on GEFS ensemble.

     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's Determs trajectory (12Z) puts a lot of weight on Vic being in the South/South East of the ULL.
     
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  8. snowgum

    snowgum A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic? Looks wet on the coast, Stretzleckis, Baw Baws and probably Snowy & Wellington Plains - all well south of the main alps.

    Little moisture left for Hotham and Falls but if it’s mainly liquid (and only early May), it won’t matter.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Posted in daily weather chat, not snow weather chat. Head to Autumn thread re: snow and alps influence.
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks pretty wet for most of SE NSW and Eastern Vic, per the latest GFS:


    With some form of precip for nearly all of NSW and VIC.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kiss of Death for NSW will be when that ULL hits the Tasman IMO.
    Big NE’ly wrap
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interestingly EC 00z calls the ULL/Cut Off Low off altogether...
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Anyone else notice that Access and GFS haven’t been updated on Weatherzone since Wednesday morning (28th).
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah nor has EC ensembles. flagged with Weatherzone yesterday.
     
  16. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Access and GFS (first 8 days) are back. Access is still fairly bullish for a rain event to affect much of NSW, GFS less so. The latter keeps most of the rain further North then pushes it out into the Tasman.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still big divergence between GFS and EC for Monday onwards with varying trajectories of the ULL.

    It’ll be the difference between driving rain and clear, non-prevailing winds.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles

    WED with 24 hours Rainfall overlayed.


    THURS + 24 hours Rainfall. Looking very much like the CFS Weeklies progged a couple of weeks ago for May/Jun.


    Friday


    BoM's WATL (EC Ensemble summary) putting in for a decent coastal drop.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If GFS pulls through there's a slim (50/50) chance of snow/sago/sleet in places like Trentham hills above 800m Monday night/Tuesday AM IMO.
    GFS 00z Upper levels (500mb):
    [​IMG]
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whilst EC 00z suggests the cold pool has a Adelaide inbound trajectory with 500mb upper level not nearly as cold.
    Still seeing big model-to-model divergence.

    EC Determs (00z) 500mb temps & Geo Pot Heights:
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Waits for AXS C....
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 'voice of reason' showing alignment with EC on the last slide this arvo (AXS-C ADL Sunday 10pm)
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC Ensembles spread looks to be fancifully narrow imo.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC shifting a little closer to the bullish and stubborn GFS scenario, this morning on the 12z run.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C playing model diplomat as usual.
    UL/500mb cold pool now separated by a 150/200km spread across AXS, EC & GFS on today's 12Z runs. Cold pool now will head North through Western Vic. GFS has done well here in recent runs.

    Trentham region above 750/800m still a chance at sago/sleet IMO.

    AXS - C


    EC


    GFS
     

    Attached Files:

  27. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    NW Cloud band approacheth. Central Tableands have picked up a decent drop with 18mm at Orange and 16mm at Bathurst.

    Less has fallen further north but they should see some more rain as today progresses. Has been 25 days since the last rainfall here in Glenbrook so looking forward to a bit of moisture after this extended dry run.
     
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  28. Dipole

    Dipole Early Days

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    24mm recorded at Weetangera ACT overnight with light hail falling yesterday
     
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  29. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dank, foggy with occasional rain at Mt Buller Jindy North Shore
     
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  30. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The rain band has now entered Sydney. It will soon put an end to the longest dry spell for a while: 24 days at Sydney OH, or 26 if you ignore 0.2 on April 10; 25 days at Bankstown (ignoring a couple of 0.2's). The forecast rainfall for Sydney over the next few days: 19-44 mm.

    Good to see widespread falls between 10-24 mm to 9:00 across the Central West and South West, with some falls over 25 mm around the ACT, Southern Highlands and Snowy.

    Just went outside. It's grey and gloomy with an unpleasant mix of damp and smoke, trying to rain.

    (EDIT: corrected length of Sydney OH dry spell for no rain recorded to 9:00).
     
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  31. Dipole

    Dipole Early Days

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    Love this image taken at 09:40
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    12mm last night & 19mm recording this morning in Central Canberra area.
    Some really intense storms last night.
    Solid drop.
     
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  33. Dipole

    Dipole Early Days

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    Some good ACT rainfall, with Cook adjacent to Weetangera getting 38mm to 9am today.
     
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  34. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice rain now, give me 50 and the land will be happy in May
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool, winter-like day on the coast here in Sydney. Light, steady rain all morning since 11am
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ballarat (473m) down to 5.7°C at 1am this morning, with precip accumulating.
    Would’ve been interesting on some of the +750m hills around Trentham area around that time.
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup woke to AWS saying 17.1 degrees.
    Currently...16.4.
     
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  38. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    An elegant spiral over inland NSW - visible satellite picture a little while ago:

     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just looking at the bigger pic ^^
    Feeding in from the IO.
     
  40. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The rain band looks to be clearing Sydney for now. Falls across Sydney have been around 4-8 mm in most suburbs, nearly all of which has fallen since 9:00 AM.

    However, the rain will be back, with the new forecast having bumped up the total rainfall for Sydney for the next two days to 25-45 mm, with possibly another 10 mm on Friday. For Penrith the three day forecast total is 20-37 mm.

    Today felt Wintry with the temperature hovering around 16° all day. Maxima across Sydney were around 16-18°, mostly around mid-morning. Tomorrow looks similar before a return to sunny and unseasonably warm.
     
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  41. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    WOW! Look at those Waterspouts at Harrington, was just fishing on those rocks during the Christmas break.
    Creds: LJ Hooker Harrington FB
    [​IMG]
     
  42. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wet and miserable old day out this way with 8mm and a maximum of 14c .

    The smoke mixed in with the rain really added to the gloom, it was quite thick at time and has that stale dank smell that you would recognise if you have ever poured water onto a still smoldering camp fire.
     
  43. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Didn't get above 17 here today, and is currently 14.4 deg's.
    Temp started dropping at 10 am when the rain started falling. It felt noticeably cooler, even though it was only a couple of degrees. It didn't help that a slight breeze sprung up at the same time.
    Rain has been very light but consistenent.
     
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  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A great day for indoor work. Rugged the horses last night and they are warm n dry. 8 degrees and wet on Jindy North Shore with ramped up rainfall for tomorrow.

    Nice rain, pity we won't be skiing.
     
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  45. filski

    filski Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The rotation off the coast off Sydney look tight.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest model runs shows good elongation of the low NE to SW.
    Showing teeth of a significant swell event for the Sydney, Illawarra & South Coast for Friday now.
    Dat fetch....
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    if only it came when Narrabeen was on
     
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  48. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    There has been a bit more rain over Sydney than forecast, mostly in the range 10-20 mm, a bit lower on the Northern Beaches and in the NW. Since 9:00, Chatswood has had 12 mm, Sydney OH 16 mm.

    Falls were heavier on the South Coast, with a few readings over 100 mm in the Bega Valley.

    The BOM are still going for 15-25 mm today in Sydney but only 6-10 mm in Penrith.
     
  49. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    75mm in Ulladulla so far.
     
  50. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Yesterday was Sydney's coldest day of the season so far for maxima, with OH reaching just 17.1° (coldest since November 5), Bankstown 15.9° (coldest since October 25) and Penrith 16.0° (coldest since October 25).

    The rain's eased off since 9:00, although the BOM are still expecting 15-25 mm for Sydney in their latest update. It's still raining very lightly here but nothing has been recorded at OH (10 km distant) since 9:00 and little or none has been recorded across Sydney except for a millimetre or two in the South..