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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 6, 2019.
A couple of heavy showers in the eastern burbs. This is going to make peak hour fun!!!
Solid rain in Dande South now.
Nasty and wonderful looking rain free base to my west, I am in Collins St just east of Swanston.
Looks like we have a decent feed from the nw
Hosing in Glen Huntly. Absolutely chucking down.
Looks like parts of the west and also the Dandies and bayside have done best so far.
The west probably won't get much more now.
Chucking it down real nice in the city! Just in time for peak!
Wonder how long we'll maintain the feed from the NW.
Surprisingly getting pretty heavy rain here at Thomastown
Was out riding, got poured on here in Box Hill, drenched.
A few cracks of thunder too to add to the fun.
Riding out the storm at the cornish arms rooftop on sydney road
It would be carnage on the monash
Lots of fog now but last nights few drops and todays showers have produced another 5.7mm in total
I didnt get a drop on the peninsula, but further up they got smashed.
Some showers coming through now and much nicer/cooler.
Seemed dry overnight at home.
Radar shows a thin band of showers moving up the bay.
Thats moving fast. Looks like that will drop the temp a bit more.
Got slammed at work for about 1min.
Radar suggesting not much in it, but we had a few minutes of quite heavy rain. Rather wintery outside now, noice.
Yeh, dropped the temperature from 18.1 to 15.2 in the city.
Down to 11.7c now here. 3.9mm from that band.
Looks like February will end on a very mild note. Melbourne's had all of 3 days of 30 or above for the month, with the highest being only 34 last Sunday.
sure beats 38C and half the country on fire!
Granted playing the model to model roller coaster game is pretty pointless but next week is actually looking quite pleasant now. Plenty of sun and mid-late 20’s.
that sounds like autumn. Dry and still.
Next week looking pretty good. Low 20s slowly build to high 20s by the end of the week.
A bit more than expected. 7.1 mm here since 9am. Winds bloody cold.
Took the weather station down the other day to see what what was wrong with it. Full of red dirt.
Took it apart and gave it a good clean and its working great again.
And then EC chucks a nice ex-landphoon at Victoria, end of next week.
Still some uncertainty in end of next week for the Eastern Seaboard IMO.
Both EC & GFS plus CMC too has decent precipitation bearing patterns during the general period, so certainly there’s some interest.
Brings rainfall further north inland in the places that need it, so there’s always that.
Massive volatility between runs, I wouldn't be believing very much beyond Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
I think there certainly is something there later in the week, what exactly it is, can be for debate.
EC doesn’t look nearly as impressive as last night, but still holding for plenty of rainfall.
The week before looking a lot more up and down, with a warmer Sunday than previously forecasted, and then another cold front.
Brisk this morning.
yes very autumnal
Should have worn pants kind of morning.
RE next week - Remember when the ECL was being progged? Gorne now, so I would be cautious at the moment but not definite on anything that's being modeled. A lot of the significant bombing low rainfall that has been progged hinges on the tracking of ex-TC Ester I think it was, and IMO that's a dubious assumption to make at the best of times, hence the models flipping each run. Something looks like it will happen, whether it's with us, near us, or nowhere near us is up for grabs at the moment. Based on what GFS is throwing up though i'd better check the boat is ready to good to get me to work and back if it comes off.
Spot on Verm. Predicting the remnants of an ex-TC is very difficult.
What will happen though is that it will track inland and dump a heap of moisture somewhere.
I'm following AXS on ex-TC Ester.
They nailed the track and the fact that it wasn't going to exit through the Kimberley and remain inland.
Here is the situation +168hrs
I too am leaning that way but at the same time gee it's a big dartboard.
Agree, anything +96hrs gives me the willies.
Having said that, the accuracy of models over 19/20 Oz summer has been pretty good.
BOM (EC ?)
Apart from the NW, a big difference.
WZ even going for a reformation off the NW coast at some point. Not sure I believe that.
Gloomy morning, not quite as gloomy as the stock market.
A tame end to summer.
One more (bonus) day.
Suns out here now. Crazy drizzle again this morning. 3.9mm before 9am amd another .7mm since. Cold nights. Autumn has arrived.
Warm Sunday, followed by 5-10mm for Southern Vic on Monday morning.
Some sort of decent precipitation on Wednesday, potentially into the days after.
And potential for more Sunday/Monday week.
Growing out of increased tropical activity over Maritime Continent.
And yet GFS (06) has next to zero rainfall over the same period.
The whole period is a lottery at the moment.
That’s because GFS shows the low failing to move south, and weakening over NW WA.
Both CMC and EC show it moving south, I’d head towards the latter at this stage.
GFS’ scenario is still a possibility of course.
AXS has now joined GFS in pushing the system east over NSW by mid-late next week.
Can almost put this in the can (as a Vic event)....
EC looks like it’s shifted to the east a bit, probably not so much affecting Melbourne a heap, but it’s still got the interior low unlike GFS. CMC is following EC roughly.
I don’t think this is sold yet.
I observe a beautiful day for cricket in Warragul today. Perfect temperature, light cloud cover early on. Nice breeze coming across the wicket with a touch of humidity to assist the bowlers.
So I had bowl, haven't taken a wicket all season and got a Hat-trick. Go figure how this game works and thats why I keep playing it.