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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 6, 2019.
Foggy start to autumn, but looking forward to a nice hot day.
A chilly sunny start to autumn here in Chum Creek
Nice part of the world @Jellybeans
Some of those values would be great for north east vic.
Yeah on the flip side of that mild start morning is a whopping 7+c temp forecast above the average for march. Average temp max is 23c for the month.
First day of autumn is the best day of summer so far! What a cracker of a day it is here.
Sitting and enjoying a drink by the Yarra with a nice warm breeze - then all of a sudden the change came through, switch to a cool breeze. So strange being out when it comes through - don't think I've ever been out when it's come through.
Reasonable rain overnight, still falling here in Canterbury, radar shows it clearing shortly.
Gentle rain most of the night, 7.1mm . A lovely 10c now.
Seen as we have some decent rain forecast for this next week we are dumping the water out of the 10000lt tank today onto the garden. Still got cloudiness from the dust storm.
GFS is basically forecasting some 5-10mm of rainfall, even less, for the Melbourne region:
EC delivers a lot more precipitation for Melbs. It was right about the setup, now will it be right about the direction of the precipitation and where it will land?
Nothing higher than the low 20s for the next 10 days. Autumn is here, albeit one day late.
Fair to say EC is the outlier with AXS leaning towards the GFS camp.
12 hour period on Thursday expected to deliver most of the rainfall.
A case of wait and see now.
Invested in GFS/AXS on this one, hope they're on the money, because 50mm of rain on Thursday is not what we need ahead of a Semi Final.
What a way to welcome us to Melbourne! Guess I'll be getting used to the colder weather straight away. Now, should I expect to to be so dark every morning until DST ends, or was that the cloud this morning?
Yes you should. We're now in that weird shoulder phase of DLS when it's well dark until ~6:30-7:00am.
CMC is still going with EC. They have led the way with this system, so I am leaning towards it for that reason.
If it happens in the way EC forecasts it, flash flooding could be a real problem on Thursday afternoon/evening.
Agree. So hard to nail these lows. Cold fronts etc are much easier to forecast and prepare for. A wiggle 100km west due to the high in the bight being weaker can see rainfall totals increase tenfold.
EC progging ~60mm for the 12hrs 11am-11pm. on Thursday.
Do not like! I guess I'd better keep the early starts going or I might never be able to drag myself back into the routine
Someone go out on a limb and call this, either way, go on, dare ya.
You've got another month of it.
I am siding with AXS/GFS. These set-ups seem to get sucked east towards the Tasman Sea. Should these models be correct, the run-off and associated erosion will be quite significant...
You wont do any better than ocf or access-r for domestic forecasts.
GFS 18Z run has Melbourne almost entirely missing out.
BoM going each-way on the 4 day MSLP chart
I agree, when it comes to trailing high vs. weakening but significant wandering low, the high usually wins out. Cant remember too many situations where the high yielded and the low track significantly further west than progged.
I hope you're right Colonel Sanders.
I been thinking the 18z has 10-15 for mel outskirts sat @7ish am.
00z OCF rolled.
that wouldn't include EC 00z though. It's the big player in this model suite
I don't see much @ all for mel thursday /sunday . May even down grade further.
Should animate very slowly.
EC looks to have slipped the totals right down for 00z.
It seems that the other models may have got it for the moment.
I wouldn’t rule out a change or a surprise though.
Not looking great for a walk in the green over the long weekend up in the high country.
06-R Not seeing anything for Mel within the 72hrs end. Not surprising really. EC ens EW index on the previous 12z was 0.2 So not real confidence there for a ec heavy precip to verify. If it was a full 1 then yeah its high confidence for good a precip forecast to verify.
Can't bank on a Northern pineapple for Melbourne unless it's a closed low dissecting the state (14th Dec '18).
Bugger. Was hoping for another good drink in Melb.
EC 12z is doing it again:
GFS 12z is staying the course it has set previously:
This much divergence within two-three days of the event is not exactly helpful.
But if any type of system could do it, it would be this sort of setup.
It's still a fair downgrade on the picture it was painting yesterday morning.
still nearly 60mm for the CBD if it comes off.
IMO we'll see half that.
GFS showing about half that for the CBD.
NE 'burbs up for 50mm perhaps.
Yesterday was looking like 60mm just from 11am-11pm for us. Down to <20mm.
The axis the system comes through won't have to change much to either deliver nothing or deluge. It's a fine line for this one.
2 days out and we could get 2mm or 100mm.
I'm calling this the Aerosmith system - "Livin' on the Edge"...
Herm, if you get 100mm, then much of the state will run out of canoes...along with dunny paper and long life milk.
Here's EC/GFS forecast.
Dont think you will be needing jetski's to get about town.