Day to Day Melbourne & VIC weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 6, 2019.

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  1. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Foggy start to autumn, but looking forward to a nice hot day.
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    A chilly sunny start to autumn here in Chum Creek
     
  3. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some of those values would be great for north east vic.
     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah on the flip side of that mild start morning is a whopping 7+c temp forecast above the average for march. Average temp max is 23c for the month.







     
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  7. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

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    First day of autumn is the best day of summer so far! What a cracker of a day it is here.
     
  8. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sitting and enjoying a drink by the Yarra with a nice warm breeze - then all of a sudden the change came through, switch to a cool breeze. So strange being out when it comes through - don't think I've ever been out when it's come through.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Reasonable rain overnight, still falling here in Canterbury, radar shows it clearing shortly.
     
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  10. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gentle rain most of the night, 7.1mm . A lovely 10c now.
    Seen as we have some decent rain forecast for this next week we are dumping the water out of the 10000lt tank today onto the garden. Still got cloudiness from the dust storm.
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is basically forecasting some 5-10mm of rainfall, even less, for the Melbourne region:


    EC delivers a lot more precipitation for Melbs. It was right about the setup, now will it be right about the direction of the precipitation and where it will land?

    Nothing higher than the low 20s for the next 10 days. Autumn is here, albeit one day late.
     
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  12. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair to say EC is the outlier with AXS leaning towards the GFS camp.
    12 hour period on Thursday expected to deliver most of the rainfall.
    A case of wait and see now.
     
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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Invested in GFS/AXS on this one, hope they're on the money, because 50mm of rain on Thursday is not what we need ahead of a Semi Final.
     
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  14. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    What a way to welcome us to Melbourne! Guess I'll be getting used to the colder weather straight away. Now, should I expect to to be so dark every morning until DST ends, or was that the cloud this morning?
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes you should. We're now in that weird shoulder phase of DLS when it's well dark until ~6:30-7:00am.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC is still going with EC. They have led the way with this system, so I am leaning towards it for that reason.

    If it happens in the way EC forecasts it, flash flooding could be a real problem on Thursday afternoon/evening.
     
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  17. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. So hard to nail these lows. Cold fronts etc are much easier to forecast and prepare for. A wiggle 100km west due to the high in the bight being weaker can see rainfall totals increase tenfold.
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC progging ~60mm for the 12hrs 11am-11pm. on Thursday.
     
  19. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do not like! I guess I'd better keep the early starts going or I might never be able to drag myself back into the routine
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone go out on a limb and call this, either way, go on, dare ya.
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You've got another month of it.
     
  22. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am siding with AXS/GFS. These set-ups seem to get sucked east towards the Tasman Sea. Should these models be correct, the run-off and associated erosion will be quite significant...
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    You wont do any better than ocf or access-r for domestic forecasts.
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS 18Z run has Melbourne almost entirely missing out.
     
  25. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM going each-way on the 4 day MSLP chart

     
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  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree, when it comes to trailing high vs. weakening but significant wandering low, the high usually wins out. Cant remember too many situations where the high yielded and the low track significantly further west than progged.
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope you're right Colonel Sanders.
     
  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I been thinking the 18z has 10-15 for mel outskirts sat @7ish am.
     
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  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z OCF rolled.

     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    that wouldn't include EC 00z though. It's the big player in this model suite
     
  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I don't see much @ all for mel thursday /sunday . May even down grade further.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    00z met

    Should animate very slowly.
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks to have slipped the totals right down for 00z.
    It seems that the other models may have got it for the moment.
    I wouldn’t rule out a change or a surprise though.
     
  35. Conkers

    Conkers Early Days

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    Not looking great for a walk in the green over the long weekend up in the high country.
     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    06-R Not seeing anything for Mel within the 72hrs end. Not surprising really. EC ens EW index on the previous 12z was 0.2 So not real confidence there for a ec heavy precip to verify. If it was a full 1 then yeah its high confidence for good a precip forecast to verify.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't bank on a Northern pineapple for Melbourne unless it's a closed low dissecting the state (14th Dec '18).
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. balmz

    balmz Addicted

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    Bugger. Was hoping for another good drink in Melb.
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z is doing it again:


    GFS 12z is staying the course it has set previously:


    This much divergence within two-three days of the event is not exactly helpful.
    But if any type of system could do it, it would be this sort of setup.
     
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  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's still a fair downgrade on the picture it was painting yesterday morning.
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    still nearly 60mm for the CBD if it comes off.
    IMO we'll see half that.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS showing about half that for the CBD.
    NE 'burbs up for 50mm perhaps.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday was looking like 60mm just from 11am-11pm for us. Down to <20mm.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The axis the system comes through won't have to change much to either deliver nothing or deluge. It's a fine line for this one.
     
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  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    2 days out and we could get 2mm or 100mm.

    I'm calling this the Aerosmith system - "Livin' on the Edge"...
     
  46. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Herm, if you get 100mm, then much of the state will run out of canoes...along with dunny paper and long life milk.
     
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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  48. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Here's EC/GFS forecast.







    Dont think you will be needing jetski's to get about town.
     
  50. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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