Day to Day Melbourne & VIC weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 6, 2019.

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  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Top OCF 00Z Bottom ACC-R 00Z.




     
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  3. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Living on the fine line, literally; per AXS-R:


    EC is more gradual of a transition, which isn’t necessarily the way it will occur.
    But it’s more generous for the rest of Melbourne, still a downgrade from the totals on previous EC runs.


    Apart from the slight differences between the models and some difference in totals, we are seeing convergence between the models.
     
  5. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Are those rainfall totals severely overcooked? 100+mm for some areas north of the divide.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Fairly likely for mine.
    I expect flood warnings to go up tomorrow.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C, as hi res as you can get. Precip until Thursday 11am:
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC with most of the precipitation to the east of Melb.

    In a bizarre twist, we now see GFS forecasting much more decent totals for Melbourne.


    I think the most likely is somewhere between 5mm and 30mm. Getting closer to the observations phase, anyway, so we will soon find out.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, GFS (and the Canuck) has some short range wobble with this one. Outlier IMO.
    All the action is East of the trough - Both AXS & EC concur.

    That said, EC has all-but ditched the closed low outcome.
     
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  10. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain here for the last 20 mins.... and of course council has decided today is a great day to grade our road. It'll rain heaps now for sure. o_O LOL
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO < 5mm for Melbourne (CBD)
     
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  12. balmz

    balmz One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :( :(
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it's further West than progged. And tracking down more north-south than towards the SE.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    but will it get all the way down south, past the GDR/Macedon forcefield
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I didnt comment on that, I just said it's further West than progged :p
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looking at GFS precip projections from yesterday and juxtaposing with the current radar it's definitely a couple hundred kms further west.
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm just putting the pieces together ;)
     
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  18. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep, EC has backed right off now.
    IMO 5-15mm for Melbs, mainly in the eastern suburbs.
    Farmers will be dancing in the rain in QLD, NSW, and N - E Vic.
     
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  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dancing until it gets to the point they need to get the canoe out. Inland totals have been impressive so far and set to continue for the next 48 hours. Im seeing more than 1 pink rainfall total blob on the national radar to 9am.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    24 hour rainfall to 9am

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS (18Z) likes a good drop for Melbourne

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    GFS - go you good thing.

    AXS-C - boo hiss.

    Locals are running comps to guess the correct rainfall in next 48 hours.
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just hunch atm thinkin maybe the sale catchment may get 10-15mm drop around 8ish pm.
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar starting to light up around Woodend/Sunbury area. See if the force field does it’s thing.
     
  25. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Raining here now. Just light though. Already 24mm at Mildura - their biggest rainfall event since Dec 2018. I can see some rotation near Vic on the Satpic which indicates that most forecast models have the rain too far East, IMO.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Nah, Alps & Macedon blocking moisture in abundance.
    Still not a lot of depth in moisture but I'll back 5-10mm for melbs.
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z -R hres.


     
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  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Force field doing it's job.
     
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  29. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Muggy as this arvo. Bloody forcefield!
     
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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not to get anyone's hopes up. Here's what predictive radar forecast is thinking.


     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So long as it holds off until we complete our evening test flight over the bay today, I'll be happy enough.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Starting to get some reasonable totals in the NE & NW now.

     
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  33. balmz

    balmz One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    sheesh, I'd like that.
     
  34. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Light showers now in the eastern suburbs but barely wetting the ground.
     
  35. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    A lot less rain is falling than what the radar suggests. 4mm this far.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lightly raining here in Box Hill.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh arrived about the same time in Canterbury,
    Light, but persistent. Doesn't look very deep on the radar though.
     
  38. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lovely sounds of slow rain here in brunswick
     
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  39. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hosing down in 3113.
    Appears that EC of 5 days ago nailed this.
     
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  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Direct hit. 37mm and counting.
     
  41. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow.. March average, tick. :emoji_ballot_box_with_check:
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I got that one wrong!

    Over 50mm in Canterbury, still raining solid.
     
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  43. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    47.8mm for the city and counting :eek:
     
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  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    53mm in 3195. On it goes.

    Buffalo Chalet seems to be leading the charge, 132mm.
     
  45. glug1

    glug1 Addicted

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    48mm foe me so far North side of Bendigo :)
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buffalo Chalet 148.... :eek:
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the proper rain band came from the north. Looks like we got the surprise.


    Good totals across the Melbourne region.
    Still raining down nicely here in Box Hill.
    Likely to be more to come for the East.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep the heaviest band during the small hours tracked pretty well straight down the line of the bay with that big band set to hit the outer eastern suburbs. Road closures and accidents aplenty this morning already, gonna be a long peak coming in on the Monash and Eastern Fwy's.

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I do enjoy it when mother nature completely fools everyone.
    Cracking system. Time to start splitting the firewood.
     
  50. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I had a gut feeling this was going to surprise. Thought we might have jinxed ourselves though emptying and cleaning the big rainwater tank. Filling up really nicely.
     
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