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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 6, 2019.
Top OCF 00Z Bottom ACC-R 00Z.
Living on the fine line, literally; per AXS-R:
EC is more gradual of a transition, which isn’t necessarily the way it will occur.
But it’s more generous for the rest of Melbourne, still a downgrade from the totals on previous EC runs.
Apart from the slight differences between the models and some difference in totals, we are seeing convergence between the models.
Are those rainfall totals severely overcooked? 100+mm for some areas north of the divide.
Fairly likely for mine.
I expect flood warnings to go up tomorrow.
AXS-C, as hi res as you can get. Precip until Thursday 11am:
EC with most of the precipitation to the east of Melb.
In a bizarre twist, we now see GFS forecasting much more decent totals for Melbourne.
I think the most likely is somewhere between 5mm and 30mm. Getting closer to the observations phase, anyway, so we will soon find out.
Yeah, GFS (and the Canuck) has some short range wobble with this one. Outlier IMO.
All the action is East of the trough - Both AXS & EC concur.
That said, EC has all-but ditched the closed low outcome.
Rain here for the last 20 mins.... and of course council has decided today is a great day to grade our road. It'll rain heaps now for sure.
IMO < 5mm for Melbourne (CBD)
I think it's further West than progged. And tracking down more north-south than towards the SE.
but will it get all the way down south, past the GDR/Macedon forcefield
I didnt comment on that, I just said it's further West than progged
Yeah looking at GFS precip projections from yesterday and juxtaposing with the current radar it's definitely a couple hundred kms further west.
I'm just putting the pieces together
Yep, EC has backed right off now.
IMO 5-15mm for Melbs, mainly in the eastern suburbs.
Farmers will be dancing in the rain in QLD, NSW, and N - E Vic.
Dancing until it gets to the point they need to get the canoe out. Inland totals have been impressive so far and set to continue for the next 48 hours. Im seeing more than 1 pink rainfall total blob on the national radar to 9am.
24 hour rainfall to 9am
GFS (18Z) likes a good drop for Melbourne
GFS - go you good thing.
AXS-C - boo hiss.
Locals are running comps to guess the correct rainfall in next 48 hours.
Just hunch atm thinkin maybe the sale catchment may get 10-15mm drop around 8ish pm.
Radar starting to light up around Woodend/Sunbury area. See if the force field does it’s thing.
Raining here now. Just light though. Already 24mm at Mildura - their biggest rainfall event since Dec 2018. I can see some rotation near Vic on the Satpic which indicates that most forecast models have the rain too far East, IMO.
Yeah Nah, Alps & Macedon blocking moisture in abundance.
Still not a lot of depth in moisture but I'll back 5-10mm for melbs.
00z -R hres.
Yep. Force field doing it's job.
Muggy as this arvo. Bloody forcefield!
Not to get anyone's hopes up. Here's what predictive radar forecast is thinking.
So long as it holds off until we complete our evening test flight over the bay today, I'll be happy enough.
Starting to get some reasonable totals in the NE & NW now.
sheesh, I'd like that.
Light showers now in the eastern suburbs but barely wetting the ground.
A lot less rain is falling than what the radar suggests. 4mm this far.
Lightly raining here in Box Hill.
Yeh arrived about the same time in Canterbury,
Light, but persistent. Doesn't look very deep on the radar though.
Lovely sounds of slow rain here in brunswick
Hosing down in 3113.
Appears that EC of 5 days ago nailed this.
Direct hit. 37mm and counting.
Wow.. March average, tick.
I got that one wrong!
Over 50mm in Canterbury, still raining solid.
47.8mm for the city and counting
53mm in 3195. On it goes.
Buffalo Chalet seems to be leading the charge, 132mm.
48mm foe me so far North side of Bendigo
Buffalo Chalet 148....
Looks like the proper rain band came from the north. Looks like we got the surprise.
Good totals across the Melbourne region.
Still raining down nicely here in Box Hill.
Likely to be more to come for the East.
Yep the heaviest band during the small hours tracked pretty well straight down the line of the bay with that big band set to hit the outer eastern suburbs. Road closures and accidents aplenty this morning already, gonna be a long peak coming in on the Monash and Eastern Fwy's.
I do enjoy it when mother nature completely fools everyone.
Cracking system. Time to start splitting the firewood.
I had a gut feeling this was going to surprise. Thought we might have jinxed ourselves though emptying and cleaning the big rainwater tank. Filling up really nicely.