Resource MSC 2018 Backcountry Travel Advisory

Discussion in 'Backcountry' started by SnowSense, Jun 18, 2018.

  1. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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    This is the thread to review our observations and forecasts for 2018. We are always keen for any well heeled, (or unheeled as the case may be), community observation input. It's always a great help to confirm or clear hazards that we are forecasting... you can do that here or over on our site http://mountainsportscollective.org/ via the observation portal.
     
    #1 SnowSense, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
  2. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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    NORTH EAST VIC:
    RECENT OBSERVATIONS
    UPDATED: 18TH / JUNE /2018

    REPORT CONFIDENCE: LOW
    CURRENT UNTIL: 21ST / JUNE / 2018

    OBSERVATION SUMMARY
    TREND: IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING

    OBSERVATION: This was like going from 0 to 100 in 72hrs. From no snow to a moderate avalanche hazard in one event. There's a real mixed bag of conditions out there. Graupel layers, buried hoar on sheltered mid elevation SE aspects. Pretty big drifts on aspects lee to the north west and now transportation out onto what was heavily rimed north aspects. You name it, it is all happening out there. With such a new snow pack it's also real funky and super hard to make a real solid call, hence our confidence is low. And, with all that, the reactive surfaces are all featured and resistant so less of an issue than if we had a proper consolidated bed surface.

    OUTLOOK: We will get more eyes on this as the front passes out into the Tasman and visibility improves, and then watch cautiously as the warming takes place. Play it real safe, or hit the tows until it settles just a bit, won't take long. The resorts are rolling and there's nobody there. The weather is set to clear by Tuesday and it looks like another heaving cold mass is incoming for the weekend.

    Always a big thanks to everyone who is helping make this possible through our membership kickstart and through our merchandise drive. Simon@MSC
     
  3. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter
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    I skied a SSE facing slope @1800m on Saturday with a single 40cm slab from surface to base. I'll certainly only be meadow skipping for the next few days.
     
    #3 Telemark Phat, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
  4. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us

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    Yeah excellent description thanks, I reckon it must be crazy out there with loading on all aspects, different layers from the different phases of the storm.

    Temperatures seem to have warmed up a lot based on the observations thread, rain reported up to 1600 or 1700m at Thredbo it sounds like, so my gut prediction is it should stabilise pretty quickly near the treeline (an even stabilising all at once on vulnerable slopes, I'll be looking forward to more observations of natural slides)
     
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  5. mattyv

    mattyv Hard Yards

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    I firstly ski cut, then skied Gotcha face midday yesterday, skiers right next to the trees for an extra bit of safety, then picked my way across the drainage to the ridge. I estimated the top 50-70mm's was sluffing the whole way down.
    Absolutely glorious turns btw :)
     
  6. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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    NSW Main Range

    OBSERVATION SUMMARY

    TREND: IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING

    More reports of human triggered slides out there today. Steer clear of the loaded slopes crew. A known persistent weak layer is reactive and deep. Considerable avalanche hazard in the backcountry. If you have any other observations to support this forecast, natural slides, triggered slides or profile assessments let us know via advisory@mountainsportscollective.org

    RECENT OBSERVATION
    TUESDAY: WestBowl / 'Stanley's East side' has a skier triggered D2/D3 slide with a 100m wide / 50+cm crown wind slab slide obvious from the valley. No incident report currently available.

    SUNDAY:
    The precip today came (sideways) as grapuel and provided some good supportive skiing, particularity where it had accumulated but not consolidated. In my travels there was minimal slab like properties asides from very isolated features, however I suspect that as I venture out tomorrow immediate lees will be stiffer and upwards of 40cm deep. Caution will be needed when approaching larger steeper features and I suggest that skier triggered avalanches are likely.
    Late in the day there was a skier accidental triggered by another party on a frequent flyer inbounds. The information Iv'e received is firsthand but the reporting party offers limited valuable insight. Estimated as size 1.5, 30m wide 20m long, unknown crown, deposition 60cm deep. The first skier travelled low under a cornice and triggered the slope above, they were swept of their feet and carried 10m and were buried to the knees. The two skiing behind were also swept off their feet and carried a short distance. Jacob Fisher.

    OUTLOOK
    The weather is warming now and visibility 100% .
     
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  7. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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  8. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us

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  9. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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  10. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
    Ski Pass - Gold

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    fk eh!
    Thank's for the pic.
    Was that a face that slid last year?
     
  11. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us

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    Where's that pic from?
     
  12. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us

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    From above?

    TUESDAY: WestBowl / 'Stanley's East side' has a skier triggered D2/D3 slide with a 100m wide / 50+cm crown wind slab slide obvious from the valley. No incident report currently available.
     
  13. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us

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    Cheers - is that Stanley's thredbo or the one in Vic?
     
  14. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us

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    @jonathanc No fuggin idea... though looks Thredbo to me.
     
  15. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us

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    Same, but I drove past there earlier today and didn't notice it. Would be helpful information to include!
     
  16. luke1234

    luke1234 Hard Yards

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    It's Thredbo according to the post on instagram
     
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  17. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us

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    Thanks, just found that along with another pic where alpine way is clearly visible. Can't believe I missed it on the drive home!
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Unnerving pit results from Hotham BC this morning from a mate. RP5 at ~35cm on column test. S-SE aspect around tree line, ~1600m. Layer of graupel from the start of the storm seems to be the offending weak layer between old and new snow.
     
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  19. SnowSense

    SnowSense Hard Yards

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    CURRENT OBSERVATION:
    PRIMARY HAZARD: WIND SLAB.

    Wind loaded aspects lee to the north and west are prone to avalanche. Avalanches are 'Large and Likely’. Conservative terrain choices are essential to safe travel in the backcountry and any unpatrolled areas. This advisory is for the MSC North East Vic Alps region areas adjacent to and including Mount Hotham, Mount Bogong, Mount Feathertop, The Fainters and Bogong High Plains.

    Main Range won't be far behind...


     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Slides around Hotham Sidecountry yesterday. Not small. Serious terrain trap at the bottom of that ridge.
     
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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Avi risk upped to High. Serious business. Huge piece of cornice has come off at the top of the slide path on Eagle Ridge. And there's somebody standing at the top of it... :eek: