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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow the 12Z EC Hi-Res deterministic forecast gone a bit odd with a compact 400mm rain bulls-eye over Buderim for Wed-Thurs next week.
    It is though more than double the 12Z EC ensemble maximum, so not real, and I'd expect to see it disappear next run.
    Or has @Michael Hauber been doing a rain dance?
     
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  2. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    18 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0725
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.2C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........71%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
    CURRENT WIND.......SE 21Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....20KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1020.7Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....4/8 CuSc, 6/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER...Smoke haze
    RAIN SINCE 0900 TUESDAY...0.6mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........31.1C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........21.6C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+3.15C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....20.0C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1017.6Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....SE 35Kph 0717
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze. ..Thunder to SW of Wynnum North from 1400K Tuesday. Storm decayed as it moved to the NW. Second weak storm produced 0.6mm after 1530K. Cooler ESE change arrived 1622K.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
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  3. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    If I could do a rain dance that worked, I'd be pretty selfish to do it for Buderim where things are mostly lush and green while so many other places are bad.

    Stuff might be happening though. In a La Nina summer you hope to see strong monsoon troughing over the north of the continent with less activity out in the Pacific, and moist tropical air being pushed down to the east of the monsoonal activity onto the Qld Coast. The current forecast for next week in EC is an encouraging echo of this pattern I hope to see appear once the monsoon gets going. This pattern could produce heavy rain wherever the moist warp around NE converge with the SE surge from the southern high. A previous run had this convergence closer to Townsville and I think future runs could shift this convergence anywhere around the Qld coast, and potentially in multiple places with the current run having a strong focus near SEQ, losing focus and shifting north for more widespread lighter rain and then focusing again for heavy rains near Mackay.

    EC Wed week 3pm 850hp:


    I note that the uppers show a strong upper trough a long way north. I'm not sure if this is a bit of a fluke causing this pattern which will soon dissappear. Or if the La Nina is encouraging this type of upper trough - which hasn't been the case so far this year whereas my understanding is that normally it would. Or if this upper trough is drawing out this pattern ahead of time with additional upper level lift, and a similar pattern will appear once the tropical forcing with monsoon season increases.

    EC Wed week 3pm 300hp:

     
  4. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    I saw this person make the above comment on fb the other day and my feeling all along has been along similar lines i.e. more a question of when, not if.

    Sure, there's the "well if hopes keep fading week after week, what's to say next week will be any different" line of thinking.
    But simply based on how long overall patterns have typically lasted in reality, I'd find it hard to believe that the current pattern will make it through the entire summer intact although of course you can never say never. Even after the disastrous fire weather and extreme dry in late 2019, the pattern eventually broke later in January (the effects from the sudden stratospheric warming likely helped sustain the huge positive IOD/negative SAM for longer than usual but we don't have an SSW this time) and delivered some rounds of very good rain albeit a return to overall drier conditions a few months later.

    The bigger question for me is, when it does change, will that change only last for a short time in several huge flooding dumps before a return to dryness, or will it be sustained for multiple months.
    Anyway that isn't meant to be some kind of forecast from me. Just my musings and thinking out loud.
     
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  5. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 18 Nov 2020
    Time: 8:10 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.9 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 35.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 19.3 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 4 mm

    Temperature: 23.8 C
    Relative Humidity: 67 %
    Dew Point: 17.3 C
    MSL Pressure: 1021.5 hPa
    Wind Speed: 11 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SSE

    Present Weather: Visibility reduced by smoke
    Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 6/8
    Ground State: Ground dry
    Thunder yesterday: Yes

    Notes of yesterday weather -
    17/11/20: Partly cloudy with Cu, Sc and AC clouds and became cloudy from the late morning with Cu, Sc, Ci with Cb clouds in the afternoon. Smoke haze. The edge of two mild thunderstorms in the mid afternoon, and thunder in the late afternoon from a distant thunderstorm. Warm early in the day with the temperature falling slowly, before warming very quickly during the morning and became hot later in the morning. The maximum temperature was reached in the late morning before falling sharply for a brief period and eased to slightly warm. In the early afternoon the temperature fell a little slowly close to average, then fell with the thunderstorms and became cool in the mid afternoon. While the temperature fell slowly late in the late afternoon and in the early evening the temperature eased to near average in the late afternoon, became slightly above average in the evening and warm later in the evening. Dew point slowly fell in the early hours, rose a little in the morning and became moderately high before easing to slightly above average as the dew point fell before rising sharply for a brief period later in the late morning and then rose more slowly returning to near average. The dew point fell a little in the early afternoon, rose a little with the thunderstorms and fell during the rest of the afternoon and in the evening, slightly above average. In the late evening the dew point became stable and close to average in the late evening. Relative humidity was near average early in the day, fell quickly during the morning and became slightly below average, rose in the late morning and became slightly above average before stabilising in the late morning and early afternoon. Relative humidity rose with the thunderstorms and became high, then fell from the mid afternoon, eased to near average in the evening before the relative humidity stopped rising and started to rise in the late evening, slightly below average. Calm winds mostly early in the day, SE to NE winds in the morning with some N to NE winds, then N to WNW winds before E to SE winds in the late morning and in the afternoon. Winds of between SSE and ENE before and with the thunderstorm, then E winds, before a ESE to SE wind change at 4:50pm. SE winds early in the evening and tended S to SSE later in the evening.

    Today: The temperature fell slowly in the early hours and was warm before rising a little this morning and eased to slightly warm. Dew point have been falling slowly in the early hours close to average before rising a little this morning. Slightly below average relative humidity early in the day reduced to moderately low with generally stable relative humidity early in the day. This morning the relative humidity have been falling and have remained moderately low. Light S to SW winds in the early hours, S to SW in the early morning and S to SE this morning
     
  6. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Nice photos @GBerg and everyone's contributions on yesterday's storms. Was a failed chase for me, though i was in the right spot when the Rosevale cell developed , it wasn't photogenic and you needed to be on the left side of this cell for better structure however, in this region it's impossible with the mountian range. Then headed up towards wivenhoe to try and get a photo of the rain curtain ,had a few stones hit the roof of my car, then the storm was weakening no doubt from the sunny coast storms making the air more stable. Made my way to Esk to try and have one last shot at the storm, then waited for sunset then the long drive home. According to Google, 541km and 8 hours of driving.
     
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  7. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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  8. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC 46 day extended forecast MSLP ensemble mean - does provide some hope for the ridge easing in Dec.
    Yeah I know long lead time. But I am mildly optimistic.
     
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  9. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Winds today finally from the ESE rather than the NE though the Meteye has pushed the really windy wind to about Friday now. Definitely the air feels a little cooler albeit still humid . The feels like temperature for the past 3 days at this time was 29 deg or 30 deg it's a feels like temp of 27 deg at the moment.

    Interesting we have a 90 percent chance of "showers easing" 8 to 30mm . tomorrow I assume they mean showers, easing . Unless they are showers that come off the sea and are easing before they even get here. Or perhaps something overnight easing in the morning.
     
  10. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    Looks like we could equal 1982s record. Only 12 days to go. Got the fire fighting gear ready to go.

     
  11. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    There's a 40 percent chance of a shower or storm today and 70 percent chance of a shower or two tomorrow though in Rockhampton.
     
  12. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Im keen to know how there is s fine strip of clear skies shown on the sat around the Gold Coast area yet its overcast at the Scenic Rim ? The low cloud must be developing in that region and not coming in from the ocean, otherwise GC would be overcast as well. Image vis weatherzone layers
     
  13. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes, Nice reports and pics of yesterdays events everyone, good stuf, awesome colors Glen'o, BattenDownHatches, & a very cool Flang GBurg :cool:
    ----------------------------------------------
    -----------------
    On another note : Maybe of interest ,,,
    I had this (1st pic below) drop into my cuppa outside this morning - thought it might have been a piece of Chaff ? Still not sure as maybe the design had changed, more effective ?
    So, did a search and found some other pics - 2, 3 & 4. Also not sure how old these are, some articals were dated back in 1900's and a couple early 2000's, so experimentations lately have been rather often around here last 6-12 months, hence , change in design and/or shape/material etc ?
    Then again, there is also the possiblity some kids were throwing glittery art products some distance away and the current windy conditions would easily cause some long distant travel of a piece ending up in my cup :)

    Anyway, the searched pics 2, 3, 4 show a more fibrous make up which was interesting.
    Hope worth the squizz :cool:
    ------------------
    -----------
     
  14. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Wikipedia article on chaff

    Evidently modern design is fine threads, although older foil type designs still exist. Finer chaff stays in the air longer. Length should match the radar frequency so that it resonates.

    Amusing trivia - German and British airforces developed chaff but avoided using it for over a year in WW2 for fear that the other side would easily copy it.
     
  15. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Chaff cannisters are also carried by Amberley's F/A-18F Superhornets and EA-18G Growlers and modified Raytheon learjet also gets tasked with electronic warfare training for the Air Force as well.
     
  16. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    One of the important qualities of chaff is that it is lightweight, allowing large amounts to be carried. As a result, after release it quickly loses any forward speed it had from the aircraft or rocket launcher, and then begins to fall slowly to the ground. From the viewpoint of an enemy radar, the chaff quickly decays to zero relative velocity. Modern radars use the Doppler effect to measure the line-of-sight velocity of objects, and can thus distinguish chaff from an aircraft, which continues to move at high speed. This allows the radar to filter out the chaff from its display.

    To counteract this filtering, the JAFF or CHILL technique has been developed. This uses an additional jammer broadcaster on the aircraft to reflect a signal off the chaff cloud that has the proper frequency to match that of the aircraft. This makes it impossible to use Doppler shift alone to filter out the chaff signal. In practice, the signal is deliberately noisy in order to present multiple false targets.

    The chaff used by aircraft such as the A-10, F-15, F-16, and F/A-18 consists of aluminium-coated glass fibres. These fibre "dipoles" are designed to remain airborne for as long as possible, having a typical diameter of 1 mil, or 0.025mm, and a typical length of 0.3 inches to over 2 inches. Newer "superfine" chaff has a typical diameter of 0.7 mil.
     
  17. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    More chaff on the radar again. I actually hoped it was rain today as it looked ok outside but nope. Its been over us all afternoon but it’s not rain.
     
  18. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    The temperature was rather variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. The maximum temperature was reached in the late morning and remained broadly near the maximum temperature until the mid afternoon. A slightly cool day followed by the temperature easing back to near average in the late afternoon and early tonight. Slightly warm tonight with the temperature falling a little slowly. The dew point rose in the morning, became stable from the mid morning, fell a little in the afternoon, then became stable late in the afternoon and early tonight and then slowly fell during the rest of tonight whilst remaining close to average.

    Relative humidity stopped falling later in the morning and was generally near average until the mid afternoon close to average or slightly above average. In the late afternoon the relative humidity was close to average before easing to slightly below average during tonight while rising quite slowly. Light S to SE winds in the morning becoming SSE to SE in the afternoon and early tonight before S to SE winds and SSW to SSE winds later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:

     
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  19. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    How does the BOM distinguish between rain and chaff?
     
  20. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    When there's no cloud on the visible or infrared satellite images associated with the radar echoes. Also, chaff has a unique and distinctive signature associated with it on radar. The altitudes at which enough chaff is dropped that it appears clearly on weather radar are also typically in the midlevels and you can see how it moves with the midlevel winds when it's matched up with the observed or forecast midlevel winds for that height. And in this region, chaff usually originates from areas used by military aircraft for training e.g. south and west of Amberley, etc. You can also see chaff on weather radar near Newcastle where RAAF Williamtown and their F/A-18 hornet squadrons are based.

    Above are some common examples of the classic signatures of how chaff appears on weather radars as opposed to things like insect swarms and birds (both of which also tend to be at much lower altitudes).
     
  21. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    Any reason there is so much in the south west atm Ken? We’ve had quite a few instances of radar signatures but no rain lately.
     
  22. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Apart from electronic warfare training, prying eyes.
     
  23. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Here come the downgrades for next week.

    Spring, you used to be cool. Now you almost suck more than winter.
     
  24. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    1.8mm in Yeppoon .
     
  25. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    If it wasn't for this virus I'd be out of here on a plane for a couple of weeks in the Top End.
    I think we are going to have to live with this stronger more persistent ridge which for some reason has set up shop around here for good.
    2020 certainly a year to remember or forget would be more appropriate.
    Great shots
    Nice shots Gleno, I went for a short drive up around Hope Island and Upper Coomera hoping to see a storm with the change on the coast, but the heat, traffic and lack of quiet scenic parks sent me packing back home. Saw some dreg activity around the back of Elanora.
     
  26. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    19 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0800
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.3C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........62%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......17C
    CURRENT WIND.......ESE 18Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....25KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1022.7Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Cu, 4/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...Smoke haze
    RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........28.2C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.8C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.40C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....16.6C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......18C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1020.9Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....SE 34Kph 0953
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
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  27. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    In the back of my mind is the fear that this la nina event may fail to deliver rain and then we go back towards the dry side of ENSO. During 2007/08 we had a strong la nina, but with only near average rainfall during winter spring. This was on the back of long term drought from 2002 to 2007. Summer then saw some better results. By July 2008 (current start of SEQ dam level data) the dam storage was still only at 32%. Curiously by the end of the 2009/2010 el nino water levels had gone up to 90%, although the big increases were in Autumn 2009 with el nino influence really from winter, and then in Feb 2010 as the el nino broke down.
     
  28. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    The winter/spring of 2007 featured above average to much above average rainfall overall for the June to November period for most of our region with most of the months during that period featuring a mixed bag of average to above average rainfall.

    A big swath of northern Australia got very much above average to record breaking rainfall in June while most of the east coast got above average. August was the most impressive month out of the lot and featured the strong ECL which caused severe flooding for some parts of the Sunshine Coast and the 772mm in 24hrs at Coops Corner. That month as well as June helped to lift most of the region into decile 8 or higher territory for that winter-spring period overall. July was a standout exception with very much below average rainfall.
     
  29. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 19 Nov 2020
    Time: 9:05 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 27.9 C
    Min Ground Temp: 16.7 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 24.3 C
    Relative Humidity: 61 %
    Dew Point: 16.3 C
    MSL Pressure: 1022.8 hPa
    Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SE


    Present Weather: Visibility reduced by smoke
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 4/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 18/11/20: Partly cloudy becoming cloudy with Cu, Sc and As clouds. Smoke haze. In the early hours the temperature fell slowly and warm. In the morning the temperature eased to near average before becoming slightly cool from later in the morning and during the afternoon. The maximum temperature was reached in the late morning and broadly remained near the maximum temperature until the mid afternoon. The temperature eased back to near average from the late afternoon before a slightly warm temperature during the evening as the temperature falls slowly. Dew point fell slowly in the early hours close to average, then rose in the morning, became stable from the mid morning, fell a little in the afternoon, became stable late in the afternoon and in the early evening before slowly falling during the rest of the evening and remained near average over the entire day. Relative humidity was slightly below average early ih the day, reduced to moderately low with generally stable relative humidity early in the day. In the morning the relative humidity fell while remaining moderately low before the relative humidity stopped falling later in the morning and near average or slightly above until the mid afternoon. In the late afternoon the relative humidity was close to average before easing to slightly below average during the evening while rising quite slowly. Light S to SW winds in the early hours, S to SW in the early morning, light S to SE winds in the morning becoming SSE to SE in the afternoon and early evening before S to SE winds and SSW to SSE winds later in the evening.

    Today: A warm start to the day with the temperature stable in the early hours before rising this morning whilst returning to near average. In the past hour the temperature has stabilised. Dew point fell slowly in the early hours and rose slowly this morning close to average. Relative humidity fell slowly in the early hours slightly below average, then fell earlier this morning before rising slowly in the past hour while remaining close to average. Light S to SW winds in the early hours and early this morning before backing during this morning to S to SE in the past hour.
     
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  30. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Good rainfall for north Australia but poor further south, so overall near average (East Australia comes out to 18mm above average for 6 months June to Nov 2007). I didn't say in my post that I was thinking about East Australia in general, and did discuss local dam levels, so reasonable to think I meant local rainfall.
     
  31. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @Michael Hauber that's what I mean though. Our local area (SE QLD/NE NSW) came to above average overall for that period with pockets of much above average.
     
  32. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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  33. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Interesting how they say "abnormal" synoptic pattern.

    Also wow "Perth is already having its wettest November in records dating back to 1876, with 84mm in the gauge so far this month" Though can't complain about rain in sandy dry Perth.

    Last bit " We just need a favourable synoptic pattern to line up over our part of the southern hemisphere to deliver the rain, which is likely to happen eventually."

    Pretty much just have to wait.
     
  34. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    The ECL-caused rain event was the beginning of the end of the drought as far as Brisbane's water supply is concerned. Several years of below rainfall, starting with 2002, caused the combined levels of Brisbane's dams (Wivenhoe, Somerset and Pine) to fall to about 35% by October 2005. (The only significant inflow into the dams from the beginning of 2002 to October 2005 was in early [January to March] 2004, when the combined dam level rise by about 10%.) The wet season of 2005 to 2006 saw the ENSO in a borderline La Nina state, though if I remember correctly, it was cool neutral by some countries' definition of "La Nina". At any rate, SE Queensland, including the dam catchments, received roughly average rainfall during that wet season, which was enough to stop the fall in the dam levels, but not enough to significantly raise them.
     
  35. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    What happens to the chaff after it is used? Is it collected for later reuse? If so, how? If not, where does it go?
     
  36. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Nope it's not collected for reuse. Unless large amounts of it are dropped at low level, by the time chaff reaches the surface, it's so finely dispersed by the wind that you'd be lucky to find a few filaments of it within a hundred square metres. Because chaff has such extreme radar reflectivity, it makes it look like there's a lot more of it on weather radars than there really is.
     
  37. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    Thank you, Ken. Can chaff be detected by satellites?
     
  38. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Nah.
     
  39. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    So, would it be a fair summary to say - La Nina does not influence these synoptic patterns development, they're just better able to tap in to the moisture when we're in an active La Nina? Effectively meaning the La Nina could go to waste if the synoptics don't play ball.
     
  40. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    La Nina does have some influence on synoptic patterns because it encourages lower pressures over parts of Australia whether they be in the form of troughiness or actual lows. But there's also other influences at play which can either counteract or reinforce La Nina's effects on synoptic systems.
     
  41. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    My understanding is that it would be more correct to say that the state of ENSO influences, but does not determine, the synoptic weather patterns over eastern Australia. Three examples of the way in which La Nina can influence the synoptic patterns over eastern Australia are:

    1. La Nina tends to favour below average MSLP over northern Australia; this is part and parcel of the high SOI values characteistic of the La Nina state of ENSO.

    2. Tropical cyclone activity tends to be higher than average in La Nina years.

    3. La Nina tends to, but does not guarantee, positive values of SAM (southern annular mode), which means that the high pressure zone over eastern Australia tends to be further south than usual.
     
  42. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for informative posts @BrettSS and @Ken Kato.
    My thinking is the Niña/Nino ENSO or Sam/AAO or IOD or MJO or whatever index people may wish to consider is only part of the picture for weather we should expect. And I forgot to mention not just those indicators in isolation but also in combination as well, and also IPO / PDO.
    Complicated maths in stats of combinations particularly when the diversity of “ indicators “ have different timescales.
    Statistically informed prognosis are good but on their own have limited value unless physics of the situation can be explained. There is much out there on the physics of each “metric” but much less on the combinations. So that can easily go into black hole of maths stuff.
    Similarly physical reasoning can also have limitations of “context,” such as trends, boundaries, and data for validation.
    Fascinating stuff really. My view is depth to learn about weather and climate using stats and physics together is so great that I won’t get bored by it in my lifetime. Even if we have some doldrums along the way.
    Ps been looking at Longwave charts a lot more lately. While I am still on learning plates with this, Is AAO a good surrogate for LWT?
     
    #11542 Flowin, Nov 19, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2020
  43. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Irrespective of my previous post. I also like to closely watch nature responses as well.
    This post ain’t about ants or other animals, but it is about plants.
    I have welcomed the modest spring precipitation we’ve had so far. But plants I wanted to thrive have been helped a little and would thrive better with more rain. But weeds have gone nuts. Can’t win. :emoji_crocodile:
     
  44. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    So very dry in Rockhampton. Fitted my roof with a sprinkler system fed from a fire fighter pump connect to three water tanks that I pay to get filled (as it doesn’t rain anymore) a few fires close by today. Looks like being a bad season, so dry, no rain in sight, The never ending drought is obviously- a never ending.

    They say it’s a La Niña year. Haha, what a joke. I strongly disagree. Come look at my back paddock, not a blade of grass on it. The creek on the western boundary has been dry for 18 Months. Lived here 37yrs never seen that. When I was a kid it was 1-2m deep every year for at least 15yrs, we used to use go canoeing on it. Now it’s a pile of dusty rocks. What’s going on?
     
  45. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Near average temperature in the morning, slightly cool from the late afternoon and returned to near average tonight. The temperature was variable from the mid morning the the mid afternoon and rose a little slowly during the morning to the maximum temperature in he early afternoon. The dew point fell slowly in the morning and afternoon close to average, then rose slowly early tonight before falling slowly later tonight, while remaining close to average. Relative humidity was near average during the day, became slightly below average early tonight before returning to near average later tonight as the relative humidity rises a little slowly. Light S to SE winds in the mid morning became SSE to ESE winds later in the morning, E to SE in the afternoon and early tonight becoming calm later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:
     
  46. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Nice to see an upgrade again with EC, the upper trough mid next week is slower again on the latest run and pushes up through central to NE Qld instead of racing out to the Coral. Still not as good as some earlier runs, and it feels like it wouldn't take much to push a lot of the activity out to sea again.
     
  47. Batten down the hatches

    Batten down the hatches One of Us

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    Hopefully our stars align next week and we get a touch sustained moisture... even if it is minimal.

     

    Attached Files:

  48. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    20 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0730
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.3C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........66%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......18C
    CURRENT WIND.......ESE 7Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1022.7Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Cu, 2/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........28.7C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........16.3C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-0.60C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....15.2C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......17C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1021.6Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....E 34Kph 1052
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze thinned overnight.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
  49. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    I thought La Nina meant the west coast of Australia would stay dry, they've had more rain this month than here lol.

    Interesting OCF has some rain albeit minimal from the 25 , 6 and 7th. for Yeppoon.

    Probably will be flooding in Rockhampton, January Feb or March from some ex tropical cyclone or low pressure . Maybe...


    ---

    Not seeing ants since they sprayed something outside in 2014 ... the pest guy but have seen cockroaches inside. Laid 2 x 12 packs of plastic baits (half price at Coles) all throughout the kitchen , pantry and garage connected to kitchen (dark no window hot facing west) .

    Those things surely will die now. They seem to have come in since the storms. I did see a couple the other day but they were moving slow like they'd been poisoned. One was sort of shaking and moving slow .
     
    Retired Weather Man and TrentG like this.
  50. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @Vinny La Nina doesn't usually have a strong influence on that region so the rainfall there is influenced more by other factors such as synoptic systems, etc.