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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I've read that there's been a decreasing trend in winter rainfall over southern Australia as a result of the belt of westerly winds and associated rain bearing synoptic systems (cold fronts and mid latitude depressions) tending to be moving further south over the last few decades, and therefore dropping more of their rain on the southern ocean and less on the mainland, as the result of a combination of (increasing atmospheric levels of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases) and (the depletion of stratospheric ozone due to CFCs). My understanding has been that the SAM is an index which indicates the latitude of this belt of westerly winds and hence of rain bearing systems, with more positive values of SAM indicating higher (more southerly) latitudes of this belt. If my understanding is correct, then wouldn't that mean that the SAM has been in an increasing trend over the last few decades in winter as well as in summer? What am I missing here?
     
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  2. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The increase in positive SAM phases has mainly been in summer but not completely restricted to it and that longer term trend is compared to its climatological position for that time of year. I probably should've rephrased what I mentioned earlier by not saying only and restricted which might give the wrong impression.
    Because it's the southern fringes of Australia which get most of their rainfall in winter and early spring when the main belt of midlatitude westerlies and storm systems are at their farthest north, just a small southward shift (even if it's smaller than in summer) in this belt has a significant effect on rainfall during that period during that crucial time of year. This is in contrast to summer when rainbearing fronts and lows are less frequent in those areas anyway and the negative impacts of a more positive SAM are much less in those areas. The one exception is the west coast of TAS which is exposed to the uninterrupted westerly flow and is also still far south enough to be well within it. It's possible either increased overall water vapour content in the atmosphere, a stronger westerly flow, or a smaller scale change in the movement of local lows and fronts may be making it an exception.
     
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  3. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    Thank you for your reply, Ken.

    Are you saying, then, that while the increasing trend in SAM in recent decades is having a major effect on far southern Australian rainfall in winter and early spring because of the reasons you mentioned, its influence on eastern near coastal Australian rainfall is only significant in summer?
     
    #11603 BrettSS, Nov 22, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2020
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  4. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    On average, positive SAM phases have the biggest (positive) effect on rainfall in spring and summer in the lower east of Australia especially around eastern and central NSW as well as eastern VIC.
    SE QLD/NE NSW is near the northern edge of that area of influence so we do experience some effects from that but often not as pronounced as those areas.
    But there's other climate drivers like ENSO, the IOD (in southern parts), blocking patterns, etc that influence rainfall in eastern Australia, not just SAM so increasing positive SAM by itself doesn't automatically mean eastern Australia gets more rain in summer. Unlike winter/early spring rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, trends in summer rainfall in eastern Australia have been a lot more variable with very dry periods interspersed with wetter ones.
     
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  5. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    The temperature was near average during the day and was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. Slightly warm early tonight before easing to back to near average during the rest of tonight. Dew point was generally stable during the morning and afternoon, rose a little later the afternoon, became stable in the early evening before falling tonight and has remained close to average. Relative humidity have been near average during the day and tonight. Light ENE to SE winds in the late morning and in the afternoon, E to NE in the late afternoon and early tonight, followed by ENE to NE winds before calm winds later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:

     
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  6. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    Thank you for the comprehensive reply, I think I get how it all comes together now.

    It's stuff like this that keeps me hooked on weather as a hobby. Even when 'nothing' is happening weather wise, understanding why that is the case is fun in itself.
     
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  7. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    22 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0750
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...26.1C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........64%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
    CURRENT WIND........NE 9Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1020.1Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....2/8 Cu, 1/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........30.0C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.1C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.95C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....16.1C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......19C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1019.7Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 24Kph 1501
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
  8. Rays74

    Rays74 One of Us

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    A couple of follow on photos from yesterday.

    Today is another ground hog day , just like yesterday.
    Hot , dry and dusty.

    More wet stuff from the sky is needed.



    Grapetree Road, Pechey


    Perservence Dam wall


     
  9. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Tuesday looks interesting
    BOM already calling severe storms possible
     
  10. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep it's been looking interesting for awhile. Fairly good shear, instability, and a southeasterly change. Just gotta be mindful of how the change will play into the general scheme of things later in the day.
     
  11. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Speaking of storms, impressive outbreaks happening today across large parts of SE Australia as well as northwestern and central parts of the continent.
    Map above is for the 10am today to 10am tomorrow period. Should be some severe cells in amongst that lot also. Magenta contours = areas with some severe storm potential, green contours = areas with ingredients present for short bursts of intense convective rainfall.
     
  12. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Lightning map from EC for the three hours to 5pm Tuesday:



    Once we get through this stormy time it looks like some real heat could kick in....way off at the risky end of runs but there is consistency already between runs...on a big heat event possible next weekend - and some decent heat over the next couple of days as well. Here's the current EC run for max temps from next Friday through Tuesday. Focus at this stage looks like being NE NSW, but one to watch:

     
  13. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Something not right about Tuesday. OCF giving us a useless couple of mm and GFS has shifted the instability north. FFS, nothing working out for us atm.
     
  14. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Yes mezo
    BSCH not overly interested in Tuesday
    But i think i see two troughs comming together and as Ken said a southerly change
     
  15. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Forecast rainfall amounts themselves often aren't too great an indicator of storm potential/extent except for whether a lot of them will drop good rainfall amounts. Probability of any precip on the other hand is a fairly good indicator.
    Just need to hope the change doesn't push through TOO early. If on the off chance that happens, much of the higher storm potential will shift further north even though there's still instability aloft behind the change. This change is a bit stronger than the last one we had so a bit less mixing behind the change.
    Hopefully should get a better idea about Tuesday by tomorrow.
     
  16. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Oh well, guess it's extreme heat and no rain to round out one of the worst November's on record then.

    F@+k this place.
     
  17. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    How often do we get a downgrade, followed by an upgrade? Hardly ever.
     
  18. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    A bit more often than what many people perceive (I've kept stats on this), probably because many people tend to remember the downgrades/letdowns a lot better than an upgrade, especially if high hopes have been built up and there's lots of anticipation and scrutiny leading up to it. Large upgrades/downgrades tend to become less and less common closer to the day. And these more subtle changes closer to the day also don't tend to be remembered well by many people. But on average, downgrades still happen more often than upgrades when it comes to rainfall amounts in this region (just using EC stats), and especially at longer ranges.

    What I'm more interested in is why this seems to be much more prevalent in this region compared to many others. I suspect one of the possible reasons may be the simple fact that our region often tends to be on the northern end of setups like these where the dynamics are often weaker and therefore more susceptible for something to ruin it.
     
  19. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @Mezo this was the last upgrade. It was only just under a week ago on the 17th.

    18z ACCESS-C had an obvious hole of nothingness over the far southeast corner but then the following 00z run partially filled it. The end result was that some storms occurred in that hole and ended up being closer to the 00z upgrade. One of the storms in that hole was even identified as severe. But the upgrade seemed to go past unnoticed by many and I even saw some people still talking about how things had downgraded even after the 00z upgrade. Image via WZ.

    I'm not saying for one second that the same thing will happen for Tuesday and it's still outnumbered by downgrades especially at longer ranges, but just one of the examples showing that it does happen from time to time in general.
     
  20. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Thanks for that bit of info, @Ken Kato . But, I won't hold my breath.
     
  21. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    No worries @Mezo , yeah I haven’t held it for a very long time. I used to when the weather was a lot more exciting here back in the day. But these days, my standards are so low in this place that I just don’t get that disappointed anymore. Of course it’s a different story for those in areas where their livelihoods depend on rain. But as for this local area, my care factor has been low for a long time. I’m far more interested in the meteorology rather than hoping for so-called weather events eventuating in this place.
    The only exception is when we miss out on exciting winter weather while everywhere else gets it instead. I’m just thankful I got the opportunity to travel to TAS again recently to get my fix and tide me over for awhile.
     
  22. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Hahahaha...it's SO true. My standards are so rock bottom I get excited if I see cloud building to the SW on a steamy day, I am so lame. :emoji_expressionless:
     
  23. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    @Rays74 Those are great photos. I'm actually keen to drive out there in the next few weeks now.

    As for Tuesday, I'm not too interested at this point. It looks like an inland SEQ show, much like last Tuesday. I'll wait until closer before sharing more detailed thoughts though.

    I certainly didn't think we'd have such a quiet November. I'm still hopeful that we'll see a more significant transition to rainy conditions next month.
     
  24. Rays74

    Rays74 One of Us

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    Hey Nature's Fury...
    If you're keen to explore , check out Fifteen and Seventeen Mile Road.

    Fifteen mile road runs Hampton to Murphy's creek, all dirt.

    Seventeen mile road runs from Helidon to Ravensbourne National Park, all dirt.

    I don't recommend a normal passenger car.

    I use 4H and it's great. Not too rutted , few blind corners and off camber sections.
    But fantastic landscape to see.
     
  25. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 22 Nov 2020
    Time: 11:40 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.7 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.7 C
    Min Ground Temp: 14 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 29.5 C
    Relative Humidity: 48 %
    Dew Point: 17.3 C
    MSL Pressure: 1018.2 hPa
    Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: ESE

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 1/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 21/11/20: Mostly sunny with some Ci and Cu clouds. Slightly above average temperature in the early to mid morning as the temperature rose quickly. The temperature was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid morning. Slightly warm in the evening. The dew point was close to average over the entire day. The dew point was stable early in the day, rose in the morning generally stable but was a little variable from the mid morning, rose a little later in the afternoon, became stable in the early evening before falling in the evening. Relative humidity was near average early in the day while slowly rising fell quickly in the morning and became moderately low. The relative humidity was near average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly. Calm winds early, light WSW to SSW in the early morning, then SE to NE winds with some N to NE winds earlier in the morning and then S to ENE to SE in the late morning and in the afternoon. Light E to NE winds in the late afternoon and early evening, then ENE to NE winds before calm winds later in the evening.

    Today: Temperature was near average today and have been a little variable from the mid morning. Dew point have remained close to average that fell slowly in the early hours, rose in the early morning then fell before becoming generally stable since the mid morning. Relative humidity was near average in the early hours, fell quickly this morning and became slightly below average before falling more slowly later this morning while remaining slightly below average. Calm winds early before light N to ENE winds in the early morning before ESE to NE winds with some N to NE winds.
     
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  26. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    That story reminds me of the first time I went to Darwin during the buildup. I was hiring a car with a mate and the guy that ran the place said what are your plans I said we hope to see a few good storms and a bit of bushwalking etc.
    He said just a minute I'll let you know if we'll get one today and he looked outside his business and said yep, well get a storm later. He said do you see that tiny bit of a cloud in the distance out to the southwest. I had to look twice because it was so small, but sure enough that evening we had a ripper Top End thunderstorm over the city . I so love that place, highly recommend Darwin for those who love spectacular thunderstorms and don't mind heat and humidity which is pretty intense up there this time of the year, but at least you get to see towering Cumulonimbus each day, unlike around here.
     
  27. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Does anyone have any idea when we might move in to a wet pattern (not just random one off storm days)? I keep hearing early December, but then there was a lot of respected people saying second half of November, as well.
     
  28. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    I wonder if they were referring to this coming Tuesday's showers and storms. I haven't kept close tabs on any outlooks for awhile due to being wrapped up with lots of other weather stuff but I do remember around about this Tuesday is what's been showing up for ages as a bit of a jump in rainfall in the late Nov period. So makes me wonder if that's they were looking at.
     
  29. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I've been lurking, and will continue to do so, but I have just one question;

    But why am I called out for having a whinge about my area yet 80% of the above posts in this thread are just that, day after day after day, and nothing is said?
     
  30. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Edit: Just seen your post @MegaMatch : Yeah I have noticed that a little, but, nothing I can do so I just carry on - it is depressing weather for some, and I'm no spring chicken these days, have learned to except on both fronts :whistle:
    HavaGoodN
    -------------------------------------------
    -------------------------

    Anyones guess in the long term @Mezo - Models verses Reality ? ?
    Have attached a couple of charts, tho I assume you know about and asking for more solid info, which is what we'd all like, One thing I do know is; don't ask a clairvoyant, fortune-teller or astrologist ;)





    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---------------------------------------------

    Hmmm, Tuesday eh, looks interesting enough to not give up yet ?

    ---------------------------------------------
    -------------------------

    Anywho, I originally logged on to show a couple of interesting cloud pics from the achives I stumbling accross earlier.

    1st was back in winter of 2011, over the back fence, old camera and stiching gradiants evident, some form of thin undulatus asperatus going on at a guess ?

    2nd is what I call a Comet Cloud, and taken over our house 'center'. Quite an effect evident in the higher level winds and conditions.

    Hope worth a Squizz...



     

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  31. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Thinking back to my previous discussions and the forecast modelling, it looked like a major transition to wetter conditions was on the cards in mid-October and then November and now it looks to December. Remember CFS was going for significantly above average rainfall in the "month ahead" from September. Unfortunately a few things have worked against us like the LWT positioning, MJO being active in the IO suppressing rain here, and a temporary weakening of the trades resulting in temporary warming of the Nino regions and cooling of the Coral Sea. I still think we will see a breakdown and major transition to wetter conditions, most likely in December, but obviously it will have occurred later and possibly for a shorter period of time then might otherwise have been.
     
  32. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Nice shots Plumbob.
    I'm hinging on the first sign of the breakdown being a low in the coral Sea which will bring about a more humid onshore flow. Usually a December feature or later
     
  33. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I think that's what we'd all like to know, but no-one can say for certain. The average time of arrival of the monsoon in northern Australia (at Darwin) during La Years is mid December, which is earlier than the average time of arrival for ENSO neutral and for El Nino years. Also, the monsoonal moisture inflow tends to be greater in La Nina years; the stronger the La Nina, the greater the inflow, all other things being equal. The arrival of the monsoon, then, should greatly enhance the flow of atmospheric water vapour into northern Australia. This will greatly enhance the potential for rain in our region, though whether or not this potential is actually realised will depend on whether or not the local synoptic systems are such that this tropical moisture is advected southwards into our region and activated (i.e. uplifted and condensed to form clouds and rain). The last I heard, there are LWTs (long wave troughs) located at the longitudes of Western Australia and New Zealand, causing rain bearing (short wave) systems to culminate over those latitudes, leaving us high and dry. My understanding is that it is this unfavorable (for us, though south western WA also badly needed - and probably still needs more - rain) positioning of the LWTs has been the major factor inhibiting rainfall in our region this month (November 2020), though the (unfavorable) phase of the MJO has undoubtedly also played a role. As such, I think that whether or not the abundant inflow of atmospheric moisture into northern Australia which is highly likely with the arrival of the monsoon (probably some time next month) translates into good rainfall for us will depend on the positioning of any LWTs at and near Australian longitudes.

    I've been trying to understand the nature and typical behaviour of LWTs since Ken Kato informed me that the positioning of an LWT over central Australia (at the time) was the principle reason for the generally dry conditions over eastern Australia during the first half of spring (2020), while central parts of the country received ample rain, but finding information about LWTs online has seemed to me to be like looking for gold nuggets. Given how important they are to our weather, I can't understand why it so hard to find information about them. My understanding is that, like most weather patterns, the positioning of LWTs more than a few days to a week or so into the future is impossible to reliably predict, so I'm not under any illusion that having a better understanding of LWTs would allow me to predict with any reliability when we will next see one positioned at eastern Australian longitudes, thereby greatly enhancing rainfall in our region. But having some idea of their typical behaviour would give me some idea of how likely it is that we may see an LWT in a position favourable to high rainfall in our region by, say, the end of the year. If, for instance, the positioning of the LWTs tends to change every few weeks, and if when it does change it does so a fair proportion of the time in such a way that an LWT becomes located in a position favourable to high rainfall in our region, then we can at least hold out hope for good rainfall here by the end of the year. But if the LWT pattern typically remains static for several months at a time, or if when it does change it seldom changes to a pattern conducive to good rainfall in our region, then we are probably screwed, not only for the remainder of the year, but for the entire remainder of this wet season, thereby effectively wasting this La Nina for us. So knowing the typical behaviour of LWTs in the Australian region would not allow me to be able to predict if and when we are likely to reap the benefit of this La Nina in SE Queensland, but it would give me some idea as to whether or not there is any real hope.

    Anyway, that's where my understanding's at, and it's about as close as I can come to answering your question. I hope that helps in some way.
     
  34. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    New bom forcast out for brisbane, been looking forward to it all day..... not know
    Arrrkkkhhhh
    The dreaded downgrade gas struck once again
    Pffft
    Beer oclock
     
  35. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Yep the great rainfall downgrade has well and truly begun.Take Toowoomba gone from 4 to 15mm this morning 70% chance to 1 to 8mm 60% chance and by Tues will probably be nil.Getting really P**sed with the weather up here.Time is getting closer for a move.
     
  36. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Gezz Townsville was frustrating as retired weatherman well knows
    Bloody SE qld not much better
     
  37. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thunderstorm activity on the eastern slopes and inland coastal plain this evening about the local region. Boonanghi, west of Kempsey, picking up 26mm. I've heard some distant thunder at times here too.

    Because we never had an issue with your posts :):) It was just a single person (who was probably having a bad day) and doesn't even live in the area covered by this thread.
     
  38. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    I aggree
    We all get frustrated with the weather
    Anyone who loves weather etc probably need to see a psychologist after the last few years
     
  39. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Assuming that we don't get dam filling rain over the next few months, how long do you reckon Brisbane's dams will last before they run out which they nearly did in 2007?
     
  40. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Hard Yards

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    Kilkivan, Southern Burnett, QLD
    I have been a long time lurker only cause of working away from home all the time so my contributions on here are very rare.
    But Mega you are very switched on to the local area of the Wide Bay and Burnett, you have contributed massively to the area and I always look forward to your posts and others on here of up coming events.
    I can understand the frustration of researching computer models from a few days before an event that shows quite promising to only to see on the day activity go past your area or a strong random developing ridge destroying any rain activity chance, I see it on radar quite regular that the activity comes close to the area of the Fraser Coast but just misses time after time.

    I think the Fraser Coast and QLD will benefit a good drop of rain when the tropical season in the north kicks in and hopefully it will be sucked down southwards with no drama's from troughs that create wind shear.
    Have not seen that famous black NE for a long time who knows it maybe this season for it well and truly overdue for it.
     
  41. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    I did say it a few posts back that we'd get no more rain in November. This will be the driest November on record. 2014 Coolangatta 27.4mm. So far 2020 we've had 15.6mm. Top it off next weekend with high temps and hot dry winds.
     
  42. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @Warlock_01 where did you get the record low of 27.4mm from? If it was from Weatherzone which it appears to be, a lot of the record low/high rainfall and temp figures on there are invalid for the respective location, because of both outdated obs data and also data at some sites being for nearby stations.

    The official record low for November there is actually 4.2mm set in 1994
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_040717_All.shtml
     
  43. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    So going off weatherzone stats, they said in 2014 cooly received 27.4mm, Bom on the other hand said in 2019 only 12.8mm fell. Who's correct?
     
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  44. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Thanks Ken for clearing that up. I was about to look deeper into that as I presumed it wasn't correct.
     
  45. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    No worries, yeah I mentioned this to Vinny awhile ago as well but the obs data for many sites on the Weatherzone website also hasn't been updated since 2016 for whatever reason.

    If you scroll down to the Coolangatta AP Data Availability subsection and look for the row titled Latest Entry on this webpage: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=40717 it'll tell you when it was last updated.
    They need to fix that up because as it stands, the records on there are misleading for those who aren't aware of this issue.
     
  46. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Any way everyone
    Here we are in a lanina. And the dry continues due to other things stuffing it up for us.
    Perhaps mext year we will get a la nina and it rains all summer. I dont know, would hate to be in rhe BOM office trying to make sence of this garbage
     
  47. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    In my opinion, I've never trusted Weatherzone to be reliable, I think it's a give and take on whatever rain falls and temps and therefore they average it out around the nearby stations.
     
  48. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @BrettSS if you think that’s complex, wait til you have a look at all the research on the Global Wind Oscillation and the accompanying global synoptic dynamic model.

    It’s been years since I’ve studied the GWO and I can’t remember much of the nitty gritty about it anymore (it’s an extremely complex concept to get your head around) so I’m definitely the wrong person to ask about it until I brush up on it again.

    But from the basics I still do remember, it’s essentially an all-encompassing global physical process which also includes the more well known mechanisms such as the MJO, ENSO phases, Rossby Wave packets and trains which then break like breaking waves (which play a big part in changes in longwave patterns), etc and involves the transfer of momentum between the surface and atmosphere and north and southwards. Things like torque forces from big mountain ranges, dissipation of MJO pulses, etc also have a sizeable input. The large scale changes in that atmospheric angular momentum manifest themselves as different phases, kind of like what climate drivers like ENSO, SAM and the MJO do. Some phases resemble La Ninas and El Ninos as well. Certain phases also have a known very strong correlations with things like severe thunderstorm outbreaks in certain regions, stable weather in others, etc. And arguably even better correlations than those some of the more familiar phenomena such as the MJO.

    The catch is, the return period of the phases is so variable that you can't really go off an average to try and predict when the next phase will be. There is a degree of predictability out to about a month using GWO forecast products which use model data but also a fair bit of uncertainty.

    But it has major implications for effects on hemispheric longwave patterns because it has a big direct effect on things like how strong or weak the jets become, how meridional or zonal they get, whether blocking patterns become more likely, which areas become more prone to very hot/cold/wet/dry conditions, etc. Basically the sort of stuff that we're most affected by. That's about the limit of what I remember about it though. There should be a lot of research info about it online nevertheless.
     
  49. glenesk

    glenesk Addicted

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    Interesting map
     
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  50. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    According to the BOM site, the record lowest November rainfall total for the official Coolangatta site is 4.2 mm in 1994 (during an El Nino and a positive IOD event), and the site has already received 15.6 mm of rain so far this November (2020).