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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Thanks @BrettSS . I was looking into that deeper as I kinda knew it wasn't correct from Weatherzone. Ken replied quicker than lightning to correct me on that data. Slow internet on my end, couldn't load pages fast enough to check out the stats.
     
  2. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    It's kinda like it follows the range, except for that huge chunk in NSW where it's reversed.
     
    #11652 Mezo, Nov 22, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
  3. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    The temperature was near average during the day and was variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. Slightly warm during tonight as the temperature fell a little slowly. Dew point was nearly stable in the morning, slowly rose in the afternoon before slowly falling tonight while remaining close to average Relative humidity have been near average during the day and tonight. Light ESE to NE winds in the late morning and early afternoon, E to NE during the rest of the afternoon before N to NE winds in the evening became N to NNW later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:

     
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  4. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    One positive is the weather is comfortable, I know sometime in December the really humid weather is going to kick in (maybe around Christmas ) once the real rain starts kicking in. For Yeppoon a dew point below 20 deg and humidity in the 60 percent range with constant moderate E'ly winds or SE winds with the occasional swing to NE not for too many days is quite bearable. When the dew point starts going over 22 deg every day that's when it gets damn uncomfortable.

    No rain at least for the next week, it's been downgraded , oh well.

    Almost seems like the years before pattern, except a bit stormier in October. So going by that then we should not see any rain until January and heaviest in Feb and March ? Hope it's not that long.

    Where can I find the correct annual rainfall totals for Yeppoon, Weatherzone says the mean rain is 1060.6mm , is this considered the average for Yeppoon for a year because the BOM has diffferent numbers is their info not updated?

    The fact we've had 1090mm and it still seems dry when it's probably? above average this year ? seems weird but 300mm of that fell in a week in March . You look around Yeppoon and 1090mm , it doesn't look like rolling green lush hills like Tasmania, but it doesn't look like burnt to a crisp dusty dry like Rockhampton either.
     
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  5. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The data in this Bureau table for Yeppoon ( http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_033294_All.shtml ) is more up to date than those on Weatherzone where many of the climate stats haven't been updated since 2016:

    Just need to be cautious in terms of any recent record breakers though because even with the Bureau's climate stats tables, they're not updated in realtime (due to both quality control processes and the fact that you can't update annual stats until after the year's finished), so there's sometimes cases where a new record's been set for some parameter very recently but it isn't reflected yet on the tables.
     
  6. glenesk

    glenesk Addicted

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    If they do not get a top up soon and the trend holds. Not long.
    Restrictions would have to come in soon or the regulator has stronger belief in the long range forecast then myself.
     
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  7. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was just looking at Yeppoon. Appears there's another station not far away Pacific Heights (# 033077) that been recording since 1891. Shows a mean for all years being 1301 mm, and median for all years 1183 mm.
    I noticed the highest annual at that site in 1910 was 3082 mm, including 716 mm in Jan, 694 mm in Mar, 454 mm in Jun, 264 mm in Sep, 246 mm in Nov, and 183 mm in Dec. No surprises that was a La Nina year. Could have been a challenge mowing the grass that year, but mowers didn't exist then, so instead I guess it just would have been a challenge avoiding long grass and snakes.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/...e=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=033077
     
  8. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Yeah but Pacific Heights a suburb is up on a hill, so probably why it's wetter even in a non La Nina year whereas I think the current one is on the beachfront.

    I notice for some reason the BOM has data missing for some years for how much rainfall Yeppoon Esplanade got , it's just blank for some reason.

    For example 2013 Yeppoon Esplanade BOM says Annual total for 2013 = n.a, so how can you know how much fell in 2013 ?

    I've been here 9 years and only seen a couple of times those humongous totals, I think the 800mm over a few days was from an ex cyclone back in 2013 and I do recall one or two days of getting 500mm fast but again was monsoonal .

    It's apparently not as common anymore and Pacific Heights although usually wetter than Yeppoon has become drier since 1910 .So I've heard from locals. Not dry like SW WA though.
     
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  9. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The years with missing annual rain data is simply because there's been a number of days in those years where no data was recorded. The cause is often observer illness or unavailability in the case of manual stations or equipment problems in the case of automatic gauges. Once that happens, you obviously can't get an accurate annual figure for that year so no figure is entered for that year and that year also doesn't count towards the climate stats for that site.
     
  10. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence the name " Brownsville".
     
  11. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    23 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0800
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.4C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........67%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
    CURRENT WIND.......NW 12Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1015.2Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........29.9C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.0C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.85C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....15.9C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......19C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1017.1Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 24Kph 1544
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
  12. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is some weak cross Equator flow from the NH down to about 5S, between 100E and 140E, but not enough yet for a monsoon trough to be drawn.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 23 Nov 2020
    Time: 8:15 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.9 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.8 C
    Min Ground Temp: 13.5 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 26.7 C
    Relative Humidity: 57 %
    Dew Point: 17.4 C
    MSL Pressure: 1014.8 hPa
    Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: NE

    Present Weather: No cloud development observed
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 0/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 22/11/20: Mostly sunny with Ci clouds and some Cu clouds. Variable temperature from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. Close to average dew point over the entire day that fell slowly in the early hours, rose in the early morning which then fell, nearly stable from the mid morning, slowly rose in the afternoon before falling in the evening while remaining close to average. Relative humidity was near average in the early hours, fell quickly in the morning and became slightly below average before falling more slowly later in the morning while remaining slightly below average. From the late morning the relative humidity was close to average. Calm winds early before light N to ENE winds in the early morning, then ESE to NE with some N to NE winds, E to NE during the afternoon before N to NE winds in the evening became N to NNW in the late evening.

    Today: The temperature was near average in the early hours, before rising quickly this morning and have become slightly warm. Dew point have remained close to average that fell slowly in the early hours and rose this morning. Relative humidity was slightly below average in the early hours before falling quite quickly this morning and became moderately low. Light N to NNW winds in the first hour of the day was followed by calm winds during the rest of the early hours, before light NNW to NW winds this morning after some light variable winds in the early morning.
     
  14. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @dogski I know I've often mentioned this before (and Mega said something similar as well) and maybe you know this already anyway, but I'd highly recommend almost totally ignoring forecast rainfall amounts whenever showers or storms are involved.

    Unless it's going to be a prolonged widespread steady rain event or widespread showers/storms with lots of big dumpers e.g. late last month (or you simply get lucky by getting directly under a heavy storm), you're going to constantly end up disappointing yourself if you're banking on showers/storms for anything even resembling decent rain. Especially if there's downgrades.
    Rainfall amounts are exceedingly hard to narrow down at the best of times for point locations whenever showers/storms are involved.
    Probability of any precip (0.2mm or greater) gives a better indication of how localised or widespread storms may be, but even then, it's not going to guarantee your place will get reasonable rainfall amounts.

    @Flowin I just remembered your question awhile back about forecast anomalies from ACCESS-C. Here's a link that provides them: http://access-s.clide.cloud/
    That site also shows things like the almost-realtime position of the SPCZ and the ITCZ compared to their climatological positions, MJO obs and forecasts, IOD forecasts, ACCESS-S MSLP, and ACCESS- tropical cyclone forecasts out to week 3.

    P.S. There finally does appear to be some indication of increased moisture and instability for parts of SEQ (that lasts greater than one day this time) as we get further into early December.
    Even if things downgrade which is quite possible of course and it doesn't live up to the expectations of some, I'd find it a bit hard to believe that we won't get at least something out of it which is better than absolutely nothing.
    But will have to wait a bit longer to see if it's just going to be in the form of brief bouts of shower/storm activity where the better falls are hit and miss and the rest of the time is dry.... or something much more substantial than that.
     
  15. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks Ken. Very useful. I'll bookmark that one.
     
  16. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    The ex cyclone to which you are referring would have been Oswald in late January 2013.
     
  17. Auzza

    Auzza Hard Yards

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    So hot already here in Grafton. Currently sitting at 33.1 Degrees at 11am, expected to reach a top of 40 today. Believe it or not we didn't even hit 40 last November (although we probably would have if November 8 wasn't clouded with thick bushfire smoke). Speaking of which, next weekend is looking concerning too, GFS have Sunday around 41 and Monday around 45 which would be an easy record for a November day, and potentially a very dangerous bush fire day with humidity dropping into the low teens. I really, really hope the models are right in expecting wetter conditions to arrive in December.
     
  18. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The current version of GFS actually has a known problem with sometimes producing unrealistically hot but small bullseyes in certain areas that are a number of degrees higher than many other models. In some of the more extreme cases, it can be up to 5C or more above that of other models.
    Of course you can never completely rule out those temps but for what it’s worth, the multimodel OCF is currently going for temps a few degrees lower than that (but still very hot).
     
  19. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Bureau of Meteorology are holding their annual workshop this week (researchers and others discussing new developments).
    Below is an extract from the abstracts for the 2020 workshop regarding the ACCESS C model.
    I've highlighted in yellow a few points to note.
    Appears our local domain (Brisbane) has the ACCESS CE3 ensemble becoming operational this month.
    Also a new domain to be introduced for North Qld, which will be good for folk from Mackay to Cairns (assuming that will be approx domain area)

     
  20. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    That north QLD domain’s primarily meant as a Townsville ACCESS-C domain but it’ll cover nearby surrounding areas as well.
     
  21. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Yep, been watching that one from just down the road here in Bellingen. Looks very hot for quite a few days next weekend and into the following week. Best upside I can see - at this time not looking as windy as it was at times last season...but still going to see raised fire danger levels if it pans out :(
     
  22. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    For tomorrow's set up Access C looks a carbon copy to last tuesday's storms, with development in the western sections of the scenic rim near the range then advancing northwards into the Brisbane Valley then Sunny coast hinterland.
     
  23. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hmm yeah, high temps in some spots that-a-way, tho rest of week looks better with the change coming through tonight down there & here tomorow, mid - mid high 20's for vast areas of the eastern seaboard this week untill the Ntherlies kick in over next weekend.
    ----------------------------
    Still lookin' forward to tomoz, mainly just to see some cloud forms, Lol. Also appears quite vast amounts of High level cloud all day too, Rather dry through most levels except around the 650'ish hPas.
    Maybe a few cells popping up here and there, sheer looks good through the levels, potential LI's are good but realistic Li's flat out reach -2's ?
    CAPE is reaching a1000's in some areas at times.
    Hmm, who knows if any cells make the coast, if any do, my guess is they will hit Brizz, SCoast and Gympie way again.
    Lookin' not much in it rain wise if any, but atleast we'er getting something each week or so lately, and next week looks betterra...!
    Last summers have often seen long periods of nothingness..
    I'm also seeing a bit of a rain-spot around GC, Briz & SC tomoz early night. mostly due to onshores sth of the change and the northers above briz/gympie way clashing at a guess, that said, not saying there will be a good Rain session at all, might get lucky with a lawn wetting ?
    Some decent lightning signals forecasts tomoz arvo through SEQ, mainly west of the coast and into the Downs.
    -----------------------------
    On another note: Mentioned in prev post's rgrd Cyclones, adding to totals certain yrs, - I just remember that FB Higgins 'bumping his gums' & predicting heaps of them this season, - And I spontaniousely thought of a Nick Name for him,
    The Higgs Boson Particle, ;)
    Looked up google desciption and this is how it is descibed : In particle physics, A Higgs Boson is an elementary particle or fundamental particle & is a subatomic particle with no substructure LOL

    HavaGoodN
     
    #11673 PlumbBob, Nov 23, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2020
  24. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Why does WZ Layers not default to the latest run? Few times now I've been caught out looking at old data. Latest has improved closer to home.

    Edit: nevermind, looks like it just goes to closest run when you change models and not all models do them at the same frequency.
     
  25. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Hopeing for a sprinkle tomorrow. Rain water tank empty. Grass going brown
    Not holding my breath though
     
  26. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    It still looks good to me for some showers and storms in SEQ tomorrow with a few of the storms likely becoming severe.
    Main focus looks like southern parts just inland of the coastline before activity spreads further east and north, then eventually contracts north.

    Some areas may initially find it a bit difficult for stuff to get going through.

    Chance of some lingering thunder or showery weather overnight into early Wednesday in some places as well but far from certain because it depends on how much any previous activity stabilises things.

    But as I mentioned earlier, it's showers and storms, not a proper prolonged steady rain event. So there's no doubt some people won't get much and be very disappointed.
     
  27. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    Good luck.
     
  28. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Just one model I guess, almost looks like it's giving the finger to the rain and lack of it at the moment up here lol.

    Who knows, some of the best rain we've got up here is when it wasn't even predicted to be much falling so just wait and see I guess.


     
  29. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Here's a writeup I did elsewhere re tomorrow so I've copied and pasted it here:

    MAIN SIMILARITIES:
    The main similarity to last Tuesday's setup is the cooler southeasterly wind change pushing up the coast at almost the same time of the afternoon and undercutting the westerlies aloft.
    This will again enhance the shear between the lower and middle atmosphere, and likely help a few of the storms in the region to become severe. The change should also help inject some additional moisture into the lower atmosphere.

    A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES:
    One difference this time is the somewhat stronger shear in southern parts of SEQ due to the westerlies in the middle atmosphere being a bit stronger.
    So if any storms can manage to survive in the somewhat cooler air in southern coastal parts after the change goes through, they may then find it a bit easier to become severe.

    Another difference this time is that the southeasterlies behind the change are initially likely to be a bit stronger and a bit cooler than last time.
    This means that even though storms are possible again behind the change as well as ahead of it, later on in the day some storms may start finding it trickier to survive along the far southern coast well after the change has moved through.
    But the strong steering winds aloft mean that the possibility of storms getting dragged into those areas, tapping into the stronger shear, then becoming more severe can't be ruled out.... and some showery conditions may also temporarily occur in these areas behind the change.

    Some high cloud is also expected by Tuesday morning but at this stage, there'll probably be enough clearer areas in this cloud opening up at some stage to allow enough heating.

    DOT POINT SUMMARY:
    Another brief round (and by brief, I mean as opposed to a proper steady rain event all day) of showers and storms developing in some sections of SEQ, mostly in the afternoon and evening..... although there is the very slim chance of a bit of precipitation in the early morning as well.
    • Some locations also have an elevated risk of a severe storm with large hail, brief damaging winds, or short bursts of intense rainfall.
    • The majority of any non-severe cells are likely to move in a general ENE direction but any severe cells will move in a more NNE or SE direction.
    • The main focus of this activity is likely to start off in southern parts of SEQ just inland of the coastline before spreading further east and north much later on.
      BUT for the places which do get showers or a storm, a small portion of them may initially find it difficult to get anything until night-time due to some stable layers aloft.
    • Showers and storms are also possible further inland such as some parts of the Downs but the main concentration should be in parts of SEQ where there's more moisture.
    • There's also the chance of some places getting lingering overnight/morning intermittent thunder or showery weather due to some moderate support from aloft and the southeasterly stream but this is far from certain yet because it depends on how much the previous activity stabilises the atmosphere.
    LOOKING AHEAD:
    While there's finally some early indications of a more prolonged increase in moisture and instability developing in early December, it's uncertain yet whether this will only result in brief bouts of shower/storm activity with the rest of the time continuing dry, or something far more substantial rainwise.

    Re the thunderstorm map above, it goes from midnight to midnight so if any activity lingers overnight into Wed morning, it won't show it.
    I'd also personally tone down the storm extent a bit for the Downs and Northern Rivers coast but still keep some in those areas.
     
  30. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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  31. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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  32. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    We need widespread heavy rain events, have to start getting run off into our dams.
     
  33. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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  34. Tasmanian Devil

    Tasmanian Devil Hard Yards

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    Hello from Northern Tasmania. Today we had a pleasant 25.8 degrees. Launceston average max temp so far this November is 23.0, long term average is 20.6. Rain this November 6.6mm Avge 51.7 mm.
     
  35. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Did you see the Aurora last night? It made an appearance.
     
  36. Robbie S

    Robbie S Hard Yards

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    Can’t help feeling the SE Change might arrive in Brisbane mid morning if not a tad earlier.

    Nice write up Ken.
     
  37. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    My thoughts exactly
    Another pffffffft
     
  38. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Can anyone shed a bit of light on the haze in the air this afternoon? The hubs and I went for a walk up Mt Gravatt about 5pm and looking out over the CBD/Moreton Bay we couldn't work out if it was smoke or haze from the ocean.
     
  39. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I wonder if playing the "59th Street Bridge Song" by Simon and Garfunkel to the SE change might help.
     
  40. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The things that strikes me most about potential storms Tomorrow is two weather influences tearing apart.
    I have no idea what that may bring.
    First pic below Water vapour supply or IVT feed map around 4am AEST. Based on GFS model.
    The IVT map is often relatively stable compared to many other parameters.

    CAPE ‘Energy’ signal in second map animation below from EC 00z run Hi res deterministic model - most unstable layer.
    The hi-res deterministic model guide in second pic/animation ain’t accurate for location of CAPE but nonetheless is a possible scenario and other outcomes possible as well.
    Seems to me a tearing apart signal is evident on different forecasts. So expectations from me for tomorrow is .... I dunno so wait and see. Could be not much to discuss or spectalar for some people.


     
  41. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Thanks flowin real up in the air scenario could be bang or thud
     
  42. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    I still think it's almost a certainty that there'll be showers and storms in SE QLD tomorrow. Obviously not everyone's going to get action though.

    Almost your classic SE change severe storm setup (I say almost because like the last change, winds ahead of the change turn more NW'lies then SW'lies pushing through almost to the coast rather than the preferred NW'lies inland, NE'ly seabreeze pushing further onto the coast). That, together with some stable layers in the low and mid levels may make convection difficult to form in some areas initially.

    Some high cloud early on might worry some people but I think there'll be enough clear areas at some stage for enough heating to occur.

    For me the only question is the far southern coastal strip well after the change goes through. That's where the competing influences lie i.e. post-change environment which probably won't be quite as well mixed as the last change and therefore not quite as unstable vs any storms getting advected into that region, tapping into the enhanced shear and moisture and exploding.
     
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  43. David Brand

    David Brand First Runs

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    Location:
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    Can smell smoke around Holland Park this evening.
     
  44. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Location:
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    A brief, fast-moving thunderstorm passed through here this evening. Mother Nature turning on her high-beams
    [​IMG]
    It didn't get as warm as forecast today about the local region:
    Kempsey - Forecast max: 36 / Actual max temp: 30.4
    Port Macquarie - Forecast max: 33 / Actual max temp: 29.9
    Coffs Harbour - Forecast max: 33 / Actual max temp: 30.0

    Some great lightning photos from last night's storm activity in parts of the local region:



     
  45. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Hoping for some storm action tomorrow to photograph.
     
  46. Multiversity

    Multiversity One of Us

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    saw some great photos of Aurora + coincident coastal bioluminescence online today - spectacular. I heard that the Southern Lights have been seen as far north as Stanthorpe -not sure when - just a faint red glow low down on horizon, as they are occasionally seen in Sydney. Saw them myself in British Columbia - awesome sight I recommend everyone should see - very humbling.
     
  47. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Aurora's sometimes been observed as far north as southern QLD in general @Multiversity

    There were long exposure photos of some near Kingaroy a few years ago and aurora has also been visible from Brisbane on some occasions. One of the more notable occasions being in the early 90's during the exceptionally active part of the solar cycle.

    But it's still very uncommon overall and there normally has to be extreme geomagnetic storm activity for that to occur.
     
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  48. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    A warm day easing to slightly warm in the mid to late afternoon. A maximum temperature of 33.8 C was reached in the middle of the day, then fell slowly in the afternoon before falling more quickly from later in the afternoon. Tonight it has been warm. The dew point was stable and close to average in the mid morning, dropped a little later in the morning and was quite variable, rose in the early afternoon and became stable during the afternoon and slightly above average in the afternoon. Tonight the dew point have been stable and slightly above average.

    Relative humidity was slightly below average or moderately low in the morning while falling quickly, and then eased back to near average from the afternoon after briefly rising sharply in the early afternoon and then rising during the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Light NNW to ENE winds in the morning with some variable winds, shifting NE to ESE in the afternoon, then E to NE before NE to ENE winds in the late afternoon. Early tonight ere NE to ENE winds that became N to NE before mostly calm winds later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:
     
  49. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    The Aurora was seen in Brisbane in September 1859 as part of the Carrington event, the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded.
     
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