The latest EC model run (12Z) appears to have a bit more CAPE around the scenic rim area compared to yesterdays 00Z run.
Alot of smoke around. Exact resemblance of November last year. Grass is dead which has actually turned into weeds, gumtrees are dying and plants are dead.
Our grass is green but only due to watering every day with underground water. Last year was brown because I thought I'd save money by cutting it back from 15 minutes per station on the lawn to 10minutes and that small change it ended up drying out. The plants that are supposed to be drought tolerant seem to wilt in the afternoon and full midday sun (Dichondra Silver Falls) but having it in crappy sandy soil doesn't help. Probably that 110mm last month has helped as well as the temperature not being too extreme yet. We have been spot on average with temperatures this month, can't remember but I think last year was warmer. According to the BOM we averaged 28.1 deg last year so 0.6 deg cooler so far ...month isn't over yet...
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY ) 24 NOVEMBER 2020 TIME....0745 CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.4C CURRENT HUMIDITY........76% CURRENT DEW POINT.......20C CURRENT WIND......NNW 13Kph CURRENT VISIBILITY.....20KM CURRENT PRESSURE..1007.7Hpa CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Sc, 6/8 Multi layered Ac, 2/8 Ci CURRENT WEATHER...Smoke haze RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...0.0mm SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........30.2C THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........21.1C PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.55C THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....19.0C AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1009.2Hpa PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....N 35Kph 1111 PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze developed. ............................................... NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm 2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
That's the beauty of having an underground water feed, plus being situated further north than us, I'd expect you to get higher rainfall than we do down here in parts of the far SE coast. Our hinterlands are virtually dust paddocks. Praying for rain this summer.. It seems December may be the start of some wet weather...
thats a lot earlier than last week as i recall it. I was in ballina last tuesday & it was a nice blustery change that blew in mid to late morning. Fingers crossed for something, anything.
Ferny Grove Weather Date: 24 Nov 2020 Time: 8:05 AM Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.1 C Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 33.8 C Min Ground Temp: 17.9 C Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm Temperature: 27.2 C Relative Humidity: 55 % Dew Point: 17.3 C MSL Pressure: 1007.7 hPa Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air Wind Direction: SE Present Weather: Visibility reduced by smoke Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility Cloud Cover: 3/8 Ground State: Ground moist Notes of yesterday weather - 23/11/20: Mostly sunny with some Cu and Ci clouds in the afternoon. Smoke haze. Slightly warm in the morning, becoming warm during the day and eased to slightly warm in the mid to late afternoon after the maximum temperature was reached in the middle of the day. Warm in the evening. Close to average dew point in the early hours fell slowly, rose in the morning, became stable from the mid morning, dropped a little later in the morning while remaining close to average and was quite variable, rose in the early afternoon and became stable and slightly above average in the afternoon and evening. Relative humidity was slightly below average early in the day, fell quite quickly in the morning becoming moderately low. In the afternoon the relative humidity eased back to near average after briefly rising sharply in the early afternoon and then rose during the rest of the afternoon and in the evening. Light N to NNW winds in the first hour of the day was followed by calm winds during the rest of the early hours, before light NNW to ENE winds in the morning after some light variable winds in the early morning, shifting NE to ESE in the afternoon, then E to NE before NE to ENE winds in the late afternoon. Early in the evening were NE to ENE winds that became N to NE before mostly calm winds later in the evening. Today: During most of the early hours the temperature was stable with a warm night before rising at the end of the early hours and became very warm. As the temperature rises this morning the warmth eased a little to warm. Dew point was stable in the early hours, slightly above average, then fell a little at the end of the early hours while eased back to near average before rising slowly this morning close to average. Relative humidity eased from slightly below average at the start of the day to moderately low early this morning while falling slowly during most of the early hours and then quite quickly later in the early hours. This morning the relative humidity have remained moderately low while falling. Calm winds in the early hours with mostly NE to NW winds at times before E to NE tending to E to SE in the past 30 minutes.
To be honest, I would not bet my nipples on it. There has been good chances of above average rain predicted for many many months. Some came through but most did not. I say prepare for dry and if it rains consider it a bonus.
Yeah but go inland just a 30minutes-45minute drive (47km ) to Rockhampton and it's dry not sure if dusty . 620.6mm so far Average for now is 711mm so a bit below average . Rocky is averaging 0.7 deg above for day temperatures. 620.6mm vs 1090mm, I would guess Rockhampton missed out on a lot of very coastal rain in February and March and then when Yeppoon has had a little each month since then again coastal fringe I think Rockhampton has not . Rockhampton is definitely a hot and dry place though , someone told me when I moved to Yeppoon , Rocky can sometimes get to 30 deg in winter I thought they were joking and yeah it seems to only drop to 24-25 deg during the day in winter wheras Yeppoon can get to low 20's sometimes 18-19 deg in winter with a SW wind. Rockhampton will always be the usual 5+ deg warmer. By the way Yeppoon only had 473mm this time last year and finished with around 570mm I think for the year last year , was dry for here , reminded me of a below average rainfall year in Perth.
This map was actually issued by the Bureau yesterday - forgot to look for it until just now. Ken posted his script yesterday - just putting this here for record of what Bureau thinking about storms potential.
Super hazy today, looking at Himawari yesterday I thought it could be from the fire up at Fraser as Gleno mentioned a few days ago.
Nothing up here for today unfortunately.Winds are already from the WSW and humidity has dropped to 28% .Looks like the sunny coast and north will see some activity.This a copy of the last potential storm day from last week.
SE'lies will push inland during the afternoon dragging in moisture.I think there'll be a few storms around Toowoomba today, particularly over the Lockyer Valley.
Was just at that very spot a little while ago! Lots of smoke haze. Could see the cloud building to the south.
Well im stumped Southerly came through hours ago Temp still high and humidity high Feels like a northely but from the south Odd
The reason for this has actually been mentioned quite a few times for post-change environments including a brief mention yesterday. It's because of the mixing of the would-be cooler air just behind the change with the hot air ahead of the change as well as the increasingly hot land it travels over during the course of the day. Therefore the SE'lies won't shut down heat straight away. But further south and further behind the change, it's a bit of a different story with temps at time of writing this only in the low to mid 20's.
Bit of development near Beaudesert trying to get going. Lot of cloud further south and south west too fingers crossed
I was just going to say cloud development west of ipswich is happening. Plenty of time still. My best shots this season so far have been from storms intensifying on dusk.
I think these points are relevant today too: " ..... that, together with some stable layers in the low and mid levels may make convection difficult to form in some areas initially. For me the only question is the southern coastal strip well after the change goes through. That's where the competing influences lie i.e. post-change environment which probably won't be quite as well mixed as the last change and therefore not quite as unstable vs any storms getting advected into that region, tapping into the enhanced shear and moisture and exploding. So will strong storms manage to get advected into this region by the strong steering winds aloft, or will they turn into thundery or showery messes instead. "
Wow, looking at about 41c this coming Monday. Things are quickly dying off again around here. Also looks like the subtropical jet in the southern USA will become quite active in about a weeks time. Not your typical La Niña set up. December looks to be cold and snowy in the east part of the USA as possible nor easters roll up the east coast. I guess not your typical La Niña set up here either? I wonder if there is a relation between the two abnormal La Niña patterns? Will the subtropical jet in the USA deflect moisture from our part of the world? Direct Weather on YouTube has a few good videos on the upcoming cold and snow in the USA.
The MSLP at Archerfield at 9 a.m. today (Tuesday, November 24th, 2020) was 1007.7 hPa, the lowest for that time of day since Thursday, August 20th, 2020, when it was 1006.0 hPa. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW4003.latest.shtml
Some activity starting to fire up near the boundary of the change and some just to its east in the mixed air. Currently moving ENE. Current winds/dewpoints/satellite/radar/lightning image via Weatherzone.
Latest image via WZ again (with current winds and dewpoints). There's a more general severe thunderstorm warning current for some inland parts as well. Can see how even though surface dewpoints in inland areas like the eastern Downs aren't impressive, it's still enough for rising parcels to eventually condense a fair way up and then become unstable, leading to some storms out there with high bases and not much rainfall (little capping, strong surface heating, and the uplift along the boundary of the change also helps):
For us to get anything here today storms need to start between Toowoomba & Oakey. Cant see much in that direction & Stapy showing stuff well south. Need a good drink here, all grass turned brown crunchy again, hoping for a miracle
Good Afternoon Guys, Here on the edge of the Range at Mt Lofty, we had a promising start, with some large drops, and I also saw one small hailstone bounce off the ground. I checked the gauge, and there was just over 3mm and 2 beetles in there, but I'm sure that what I saw was a hailstone, not a beetle.
Not a bad optic at the storms just to the west of Beaudesert here this arvo. The clouds had some real nice structure and lots of thunder but nothing severe. Very enjoyable despite the gusty wind at times
Rockhampton Current Temperature: 33.4 Deg Rel Humidity: 41% Wind NNE: 18km/ph (Gust 26km/ph) Fire Danger: high Only 2 fires near Rocky today, but enough to put some smoke haze in the air again.
A few rumbling just to our SW, scenery that way isnt very inspiring. Someting needs to give it a kick in the guts, make it angry
@Ken Kato is today a write off now? Or do you think there may be some rain overnight into tomorrow early AM?
Today is utter garbage. This month is looking like another very quiet November and we're getting way too many of them in recent years.
Nah I don't think it's a writeoff yet but depends on what your expectations are. As I mentioned in my posts yesterday, some areas may have to wait til later tonight or the overnight hours to get some shower OR storm activity and that still looks like it may be the case. Forecast soundings have always looked rather ugly in places near the coast until this evening with a couple of layers of stable air aloft and not a great deal of instability. These stable layers still look to erode by evening and if they do, they'd probably allow some showers and the odd storm to spread a bit further east and north into areas where the atmosphere hasn't been tainted so far by much previous convection and outflows. But by then, overall instability will be decreasing despite a subtle upper trough trying to pivot up near our region so while storms are still possible, it might be more in the form of a showery mess with some storms embedded that affect some areas but not others. Also worth noting that the southern coast has always been looking like a fine between severe storm potential as storms get advected into the region and tap into the stronger shear.... and storms weakening into a showery thundery mess due to the post change environment and less mixing than the last change . So what's happened so far shouldn't really come as a big surprise to those who've been looking at the setup considering this uncertainty's been evident from the start.
Thanks ken, would be happy with some showers to help my lawn..10mm would be great. Any nore well it would be xmas lol
