Thanks Ken - I'm hoping for some semi-decent rain to fill the pool (so I can backwash on the weekend ) maybe 10-15mm. Doesn't look like too much more on the horizon (at least according to WATL). So tonight is the last chance for me before I am forced to put the hose in!
Thanks Ken. I think that could be happening already maybe. Just noticed that a small cell has popped up near Narangba.
Here's some of the more relevant parts of my post from yesterday which goes back to what I mentioned before (and above is the hourly EC lightning forecast between midday and 10pm tonight but note that I haven't extended it beyond 10pm so it won't show any lightning that may occur after that time): " This means that even though storms are possible again behind the change as well as ahead of it, later on in the day some storms may start finding it trickier to survive along the far southern coast well after the change has moved through. But the strong steering winds aloft mean that the possibility of storms getting dragged into those areas, tapping into the stronger shear, then becoming more severe can't be ruled out.... and some showery conditions may also temporarily occur in these areas behind the change. BUT for the places which do get showers or a storm, a small portion of them may initially find it difficult to get anything until night-time due to some stable layers aloft. "
SE change that came through at lunchtime is pushing cooler air ( sea temp 23-24C ) into the storms as they try to approach the coast locally, which is SOP ( standard operating procedure ) till February when the sea temp gets up to 26-27C, so storms by then have a better chance.
Looks a bit sad for storm chasers at the moment around Ipswich area. Hopefully some rain whereever the cells went. I was keen but came home looking at the radar. Might be a nice sunset through the clouds but not hopeful. Up north passed Kingaroy looks decent.
Only very isolated mostly light (< 10 mm) falls in SE Queensland so far. http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/seast.shtml
Some isolated, lucky for very few folks, got more rain in their backyards. Radar accumulations suggest some over 20mm. Radar Rain accumulation is not as precise as rain gauges but does help to understand rain spatial patterns in areas where there are not many on the ground rain gauges.
Access C continues to impress me. Though I use all models with caution. Activity further north west, on GDR, and beyond further inland, is notable. Predicting the convective rain locations is deeply complex. So while no models are perfect, I think it is better to improve convection in the models whatever way that is best done. So cheers to ACCESS C for giving it go with some efforts on convection.
The highest rainfall recorded in SE Queensland from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. today (Tuesday, November 24th, 2020) was 25 mm at Mt. Sugarloaf Alert (near Boonah). http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60347.html
being a Storm Chaser in Qld this season would be like being a Snow Plow Operator at Alice Springs I think. As in you won’t have much to do. Perhaps Knitting.
Yeah. But. Also if you don’t give something a go, like seeking an ultimate photo, you will never know. So good to give it a go, within reason of the burden it imposes on you.
i just want to see rainfall off 100ml in a 24 hr period. I know it happens just never seen it. Might have to go to Mackay or Brisbane to see it though
Well holy bejesuits! I had a catnap and woke to WW3! Kingaroy is getting hammered with lightning; bit of gentle rain but seriously bad lightning and accompanying thunder. Oh yeah Fizzer-callers if you could only be here, you too would be jumping with every flash cos you know the house is goingto shake it a few seconds.
The most I’ve seen is 97mm in 24hrs. But living in Rocky you are unlikely to see these kind of falls as it usually misses out on rain events
Jealous Kazz!! Rellies from up there copped nearly golf ball sized hail this arvo. Looks great in radar, the S Burnett seems to be the only place in se qld where the southerly hasn't killed off most storm activity. Have yet to see a decent storm in Caloundra so far this season. Will have to move back to Kingaroy!!
Geez I dunno Gus; we didn't see any hail, flat out getting decent rain, lol. But I did come home & crash for a few hours - over worked as usual, lol. But I reckon you will at least see a lightning show on the coast; from Deception bay northwards this system is gonna hit the coast later tonight for sure. And as I type, the 'after show' rain is starting to get heavier & heavier. And a flicker to the power tells me it is time to push the "Post" button on this, lol ps - will add , very little wind/breeze to speak of just the occasional flange now and increasingly heavier rain. There is hope peoples! (well not for Brisbane for a change, lol)
Looks like we won't get anything out of today. Will finish the month on 7.9mm. Pretty poor effort. Hope December makes up for it.
I have experienced over six inches in 45 minutes. It was a thunderstorm in SEQ around December 1991. Can’t remember what date. Taught me that I’d now say be careful what you wish for. I like my rain about 20mm per hour or 100 mm per day. But you can’t always get what you wish for...
Hey Vinny, have you tried putting granular Wettasoil over your sandy soil. It may help to get the water down to the roots a bit better. Speaking from experience.
I’ve written December off already due to the almost nonexistent MJO, I’m hoping for a shower or 2 in Jan & Feb. if Rockhampton gets 35mm in Jan and 23mm in Feb I’ll be very happy. But in these extreme dry conditions it my not be possible, but I’m hoping.
If Rockhampton area got less than 50mm or thereabouts in January and February, then I will also be disappointed.
Just had a lightning strike near my place, it was rather loud. The hail in the first storm was the biggest I've for a while.
Sunshine coast airport has managed 3 times this year, once in January and twice in February. Normally expect at least a couple such days here each year. Ranges near Maleny and west of Gold Coast would be your best bet for high daily rainfall totals in late summer. Brisbane got triple digits on just one occasion and in February.
Kingaroy has now received 28.8 mm of rain from 9 a.m. today (Tuesday, November 24th, 2020). Its total for the month to 9 a.m. today was only 1.6 mm
I went out to the scenic rim today, these photos are from the Boonah cell which i think it originally developed just east of Stanthorpe. The cell died as it approched Beaudesert. I finally met Anthony Cornelius and also Thomas from HSC and im pretty sure i drove past Justin Noonan and Michael bath. Heaps of people chasing today. Will be my last chase as im going to enjoy 2 weeks holiday in Sydney next week to catch up with family who i havent seen in a while. 400kms and 6 hours of driving.
Impressive again @Gleno71 Capturing the moment in whatever conditions is often as good as getting a pic in ideal conditions. But ideal conditions rarely occur so I have full respect for efforts of people who adapt to less than ideal conditions. Happy to hear you gave this a go, and willing to share that too. Edit: and experience of meeting others with similar interests is good too.
Just saw a couple of cloud to cloud flashes to my SW from one of those two cells that are moving across at the moment. Not picked up on the tracker atm though. And a bit too far away to hear thunder. Image via WZ. Edit: Now picked up by tracker.
0.0mm In Rocky tonight in my gauge. Looks like a 0.00mm for me in November, the Airport did better with 1.2mm I think so far for Nov. Hopefully we can pull a couple mil in December if lucky. Not looking good. Need to buy another load of water. Tanks are dry, bore has gone dry. I wish this drought would end. Fire plan ready. We have no water to fight it, both dams are empty, creek had been dry for 2 years. Evacuation is the only option when the fires come through, which they will in this dry climate phase.
Bore dry is not good. .... if groundwater supplies are stressed, that is typically severe IMO. Hope December is better for you.
We used to have good bore water from 1937 to 2017. 27-34m was always the place, driller came out. The ground water has gone. Went from 1000/gal hr to almost nothing
Hope not, but you never know. There was a movie called Scorched in where Sydney has had no rain for over 200 days and it's destroyed by bushfires.
It's as if mother nature is saying to us, "ok, you've had your rain and storms in SE Queensland. Now it's your turn to have some dry weather."
Is the most severe drought I’ve seen. If this is La Niña then bring on El Niño. Might get some rain then. This is clearly a faux La Niña. Bring back El Niño. At least we get a little bit of rain in that phase. La ninas are now seen as a severe dry event for central Qld. Let’s hope we get an El Niño soon. We need the rain in CQ desperately. Let’s hope 2021 is a El Niño year so we got some rain
I think we all hope we get some rain, but be careful of what you wish for. All other things being equal, it'd be even drier if there was an El Nino. The main culprit for us at the moment seems to be the positioning of the LWTs (long wave troughs), with, the last I heard, one positioned over WA longitudes, and one positioned over New Zealand longitudes, leaving us high and dry here in the middle, thereby effectively wasting this La Nina for us. For the most part, atmospheric mosture inflow into the equatorial region north of Australia was been well above average this spring, and that is due to La Nina. However, it is the positioning of the LWTs which determine if and where this enhanced equatorial moisture is advected southward over Australia and condensed to form clouds and rain. So for us in eastern Australia, it's as if the La Nina is trying to give us rain, but the LWTs won't let it. In short, conditions are so dry now in our part of the world despite the presence of a La Nina in the Pacific, not because of it.
A brief light shower early tonight (0.1 mm). Warm during the morning before the maximum temperature was reached in the late morning. From the early afternoon the temperature eased to near average while the temperature fell, and was slightly in the mid afternoon. Slightly warm temperature early tonight became warm as the temperature was mostly near stable, except for a brief fall in the temperature with the light shower. Dew point rose in the morning and early afternoon that was close to average, becoming slightly above average in the early afternoon. In the afternoon the dew point fell close to average before becoming stable tonight. Relative humidity continued to fall in the morning while easing from moderately low in the early morning to near average in the late morning. As the relative humidity rose in the afternoon it became moderately high later in the afternoon before dropping back to near average early tonight and slightly below average during tonight due to the relative humidity being quite stable. Light NE to SSE winds in the morning became E to SE until the mid afternoon before SSE to SE winds later in the afternoon, following a wind change at 4:10pm before S to SE winds later tonight. Last 24 hours:
2021 & 2022 will be better. 2020 is all but written off as a complete dud. We just need to get back to Neutral or El Niño conditions. La Niña is now the dry phase for Qld & Nth NSW and bad for rainfall. Hopefully sea temps rise in the central pacific and we can get back some more regular rainfall soon.
El Nino now would be catastrophic for the country. We can only hope that the LWT pattern changes before it's too late. A lot of farmers would have spent millions of dollars planting crops in anticipation of La Nina rain and if that doesn't happen, it could take us to a place that very few people today have ever lived through.
I feel sad for these farmers having invested in this tinder dry La Nada. Maybe the next few years will improve with at least a little rain to top up a couple of our now completely dry dams. Another bad fire day for coastal qld with high fire danger for all areas except Brissy Gold / Coast. The big drought of 19/20 isn’t done just yet. Do you have a bushfire survival plan? If not read this. https://www.qfes.qld.gov.au/community-safety/downloadlibrary/Documents/GetReadyGuide-E.pdf
