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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    appreciate the kind words @Flowin yeah you have to put yourself out there to have a chance of capturing a decent photo, and more often than not , it dosen't quite work out the way you want it. However i love driving around the scnic rim region and the downs area, pretty much i dont need to rely on the GPS to get me around like i used to as im frequently out there whether it's chasing storms or chasing sunset
     
  2. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I agree. As I said in the post I linked below, it is the positioning of the LWTs that is the main culprit at the moment, not the presence of La Nina conditions in the Pacific.

    NE NSW / QLD weather
     
  3. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    A return to El Nino conditions is the last thing we need, as I said in my reply to you linked below. What we need is the arrival of the monsoon in northern Australia, the active phase of the MJO over the maritime continent and northern Australia, and a LWT situated at eastern Australian longitudes.

    NE NSW / QLD weather
     
  4. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 25 Nov 2020
    Time: 8:05 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.9 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 32.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 20.7 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm

    Temperature: 23.4 C
    Relative Humidity: 67 %
    Dew Point: 16.9 C
    MSL Pressure: 1012.3 hPa
    Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: S

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 8/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather -
    24/11/20: Partly cloudy with Cu, Sc and Ci in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon. Smoke haze. A brief light shower in the early evening. Very warm early in the day with the temperature stable during most of the early hours before rising later in the early hours. Warm during the morning before the maximum temperature was reached in the late morning, easing to near average in the early afternoon as the temperature fell and became slightly below average in the mid afternoon. Slightly warm early in the evening becoming warm with the temperature mostly stable in the evening except for a brief fall in the temperature in the early evening. Stable dew point in the early hours, slightly above average, fell a little later in the early evening easing back to near average, then rose in the morning and early afternoon close to average becoming slightly above average in the afternoon, stabilised in the evening. Relative humidity eased from slightly below average at the start of the day to moderately low in early morning while falling slowly during most of the early hours and more quickly later in the early hours. In the morning as the relative humidity fell it became moderately low before easing back to near average in the late morning. As the relative humidity rose in the afternoon it was moderately high later in the afternoon, eased back to near average in the early evening before the relative humidity eased to slightly below average in the evening due to the relative humidity being stable. Calm winds in the early hours with mostly NE to NW winds at times before E to NE tending to NE to SSE winds from the mid morning. Winds became E to SE until the mid afternoon before SSE to SE winds later in the afternoon, following a wind change at 4:10pm before S to SE winds later in the evening.

    Today: Warm increasing to very warm temperature in the early hours with the temperature generally stable in the early hours before rising a little later in the early hours. Slightly warm this morning with the temperature rising very slowly. Dew point was stable in the early hours, fell a little later in the early hours before rising slowly this morning while remaining close to average. Relative humidity was generally stable in the early hours, then dropped a little later in the early hours, moderately low before easing to slightly below average this morning as the relative humidity became stable. Light S to SE during in the early hours and this morning.
     
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  5. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Nice shots again Gleno, I was easr of you watching that cell and was tempted to drive out that way but decided to stay put. I'm like you, love the scenic rim and you know ya gunna get something out there on a day like yesterday. Still very dry out there as well though.
     
  6. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    Nothing here for us yesterday, seems we will be having the driest November here since I began taking records in 2013. Only 1mm fallen so far this month.
     
  7. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Not a drop
    Frustrating
     
  8. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @BrettSS yep, the tables below which I created using rain stats I compiled myself for Brisbane are another classic example of how while above average rain has technically occurred during the majority of months in La Nina years, much of that's only been a bit over 50% of the time. It proves the fact that history shows past La Ninas haven't caused above average rain for a given location/area every time.

    @Flowin , yeah, forecast soundings were showing the low to mid levels continuing to have a fair bit of moisture and mild instability well into the night last night (also probably helped by the subtle upper trough pivoting up past us) so that looks consistent with the night time activity that occurred. Some screenshots via WZ and fb from last night are below:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #11808 Ken Kato, Nov 25, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2020
  9. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Bit of cloud around today in Yeppoon, makes it feel a bit more comfortable even though the dew point is 21 and humidity in the mid 70 percent. Unless it clears after midday.

    Saw this , didn't know it was so dry , just 40km's from Rockhampton:



    Also a couple of nights ago the tv was on in the other room and I heard something on 7local news I think about preparing for flooding rains in December and cyclones next year , which seemed a bit overdramatic.
     
  10. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    I think it's the sun here, the soil isn't as bad like Perth sandy soil was . It's cloudy today and the plant is back to life, when they say full sun here for plants I think a bit of shade is necessary unless it's a native or plant that grows in a hot dryish climate.

    A few years ago must have been before 2015 , we had so much rain you could dig in the sand and the ground water was almost at the surface I think.

    It's like since Marcia we haven't really seen much with cyclones or ex cyclones, there was Debbie in 2017 but from memory that turned out to be some overnight heavy rain and wind and a tropical low? I think. So Marcia i think was the last one but even Marcia didn't give us much rain. I think it was only just over 100mm . More wind.

    Going further back it was ex Oswald that was in 2013? I think , I had only just moved here a couple of years and we had 800mm in a few days. I thought every summer was going to be like this but the last 2 or 3 years have shown me that's not the case.

    Geez imagine an ex tropical cyclone in a La Nina year coming down the Qld coast, from Townsville then south down to the Wide Bay etc all the rain pouring down .
     
  11. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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  12. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Heat incoming, particularly for far NE NSW....here's the maximum forecast for Sunday for NE NSW from GFS and EC:



    Looks like the heat will stick around NENSW SEQLD from this weekend through until Thursday - close to the coast it looks like there will be a sea breeze at times to take the tops off...but likely to see at least a couple of days where the breeze doesn't make it that far inland...and then it'll get really hot on the plains. Here's the heatwave forecast from the BoM, with their wording:



    Heatwave Situation for Saturday, Sunday, & Monday (3 days starting 28/11/2020)
    A large area of low-intensity heatwave extends over central Australia and the NT and into coastal NSW. A large area of severe heatwave can be seen over southern QLD, Northeast SA and Northern NSW. A small area of extreme heatwave can be seen near the mid north coast of NSW.

    EDIT: Going to add this - preliminary fire forecast for Sunday - could get messy before it gets wetter:



    Looks - at this stage - I am less of a believe in rain forecasts right now than I used to be - that it could get wetter once the heatwave clears through...
     
    #11812 Bello Weather, Nov 25, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2020
  13. Tasmanian Devil

    Tasmanian Devil Addicted

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    Hi from Tassie! Today with 31.2 degrees Hobart was warmer than Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Cairns. Hobart averages 6.3 days per year > 30 degrees - so far this year there has been 9.
     
  14. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    Ditto here at Sunnybank Hills.
     
  15. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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  16. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Wow Gatton going for 3 consectutive days of 40c next week, is that common? I know they can get high temps but surely thats well abover average.
     
  17. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Seems like an each way bet.An assumption that if this happens and that happens then this outcome will happen.But this is not happening the way the assumptions apparently should happen.
     
  18. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hmmm, as for Briz, La-Nina yrs showing 'Total' approx 5% exceeding above median,, Yet El-Nino 'Total' approx 15% under Median ?
    Be interesting to know these stats for each state, QLD v NSW v NT v SA v WA ect - OR - for the whole of Aus ?
    Is there any substantial stats that show whether La-Nina or El-Nino effects on Median Rainfalls are stronger/larger for one compared to the other ?
     
  19. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Haha, I moved up here from Victoria around the same time. Like you, I was in weather heaven for the first few years - ex cyclones, epic supercells (sometimes every day for a week), lots of rain. I think the last two years have been abnormal, not the first few years we moved here (apart from the cyclone remnants, which are always going to be quite random and not something to rely on each year).
     
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  20. GBerg

    GBerg One of Us

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    I took the gamble last night to head inland to kilkivan and was rewarded with an amazing lightshow around 10pm.
     
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  21. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    A cool day with the temperature rising a little slowly during the day to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. The temperature was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. Near average temperature late in the afternoon and early tonight before slightly warm during tonight after the temperature temporarily rose before falling more quickly. Dew point was stable and close to average in the morning, was a little variable in the afternoon but was generally stable before remaining stable during tonight. Relative humidity was slightly above average in the morning and afternoon as the relative humidity fell quite slowly, returned to near average from the late afternoon before becoming slightly above average tonight as the relative humidity rose slowly. Light S to SE winds became SSE to ESE from the mid morning, that became E to SE in the afternoon and SSE to ESE late in the afternoon and during tonight with calm winds at times tonight before becoming calm later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:


     
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  22. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I've lived in SE Queensland my entire life, and my own feeling is that to ask whether it is the dry periods or the wet periods which are "normal" is a bit like asking whether it is summer or winter that is normal. As far as rainfall is concerned, the weather tends to fluctuate between a few to several years of generally higher than median rainfall and a few to several years of generally lower than median rainfall, though there are typically still individual months with above/below median rainfall during the dry/wet periods. Of course, unlike the regular annual seasonal cycle, the shift between wet and dry periods is an irregular, and therefore essentially unpredictable, fluctuation, being influenced by many complex interacting local and global climatic influences. During the last few years, we have definitely been in the lower rainfall phase, with only a small proportion of months seeing above average rainfall, and in some areas the dryness has been exceptional, with some locations receiving their lowest 24 month November to October rainfall in the November 1st, 2018 to October 31st, 2020 period, but it is the intensity of the recent dryness, rather than the fact that it has been dry per se, that is unusual.
     
  23. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    The last time that the University of Gatton site recorded three (or more) consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 40.0°C or higher was from March 11th to 13th, 2019:


    March 11th, 2019: 40.0°C.


    March 12th, 2019: 41.1°C.


    March 13th, 2019:. 40.2°C.


    During the prolonged intense heat wave of early January 2004, the University of Gatton site recorded four consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 40.5°C or higher, and six consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 39.3°C or higher of which five had maximums of 40.5°C or higher:


    January 4th, 1994: 43.0°C.


    January 5th, 1994: 39.3°C.


    January 6th, 1994: 44.5°C.


    January 7th, 1994: 41.1°C.


    January 8th, 1994: 42.0°C.


    January 9th, 1994: 40.5°C.


    I haven't checked all of the available daily temperature records for the University of Gatton site (which are available at the site I linked above), so I can't be sure that the 1994 heatwave holds the record for the most consecutive 40.0°C+ days ever recorded at that site, but I did look up the data for all of the major heat waves I remember in SE Queensland, so if there was a heatwave that beat the January 1994 heatwave for the most consecutive 40.0°C+ days at that site, it must have been either a major heatwave I've somehow forgotten about (unlikely, but not impossible), or one which took place before my time (quite possible).
     
  24. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    It happens occasionally. Still far from the heat from a few years ago when we hit 46C and bitumen was melting.
     
  25. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The average max temp for the current Gatton site for November is 30.3C using its entire length of temperature records (from 1913).
    To reach the hottest 10% of past November max temps at that site (decile 9), it has to reach at least 35C. Meanwhile the average number of Nov days that have reached 40C or higher there is 0.3 days. That average for the more recent 1991 to 2019 period is a bit higher at 0.5 days. So in other words, on average once every two years for the more recent years.... but that's an average. Of course in reality, it won't occur evenly like that and some years will feature multiple days with temps of 40C or higher and other years won't. The hottest Nov day on record there is 42.8C.

    Above is the extreme forecast index for max temps for next Tuesday from the EC ensemble where -1 is extreme cool compared to what's typical for the given area and time of year and +1 is extreme warm.

    P.S. a fb memory from 2018 came up for me just then - see 2nd image above.
     
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  26. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

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    It is going to be interesting to see what the BOM do with their 3 month rainfall update today.
     
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  27. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    26 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0845
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...28.0C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........59%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
    CURRENT WIND........NE 9Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1014.7Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....2/8 Cu, 2/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY...Trace
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........28.1C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.1C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY...0.00C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....16.3C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......18C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1012.5Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 24Kph 1246
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Slight drizzle mid to late Wednesday morning. No rain recorded.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
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  28. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Min temp of 25 deg .... yeah it was warm and the "feels like" temperature was 26 deg , constant 80 percent humidity. I am kind of lucky because the sun doesn't hit my window due to a lilly pilly tree outside and it's not the hot side of the house more easterly facing. If we are already getting min temps in the mid 20's in November does that mean close to 30 deg at night and humid in February?!

    Wish the wind would pick up . It's so calm . According to the Meteye the humidity and dew point will drop by afternoon it is around 21.7 deg dp now supposed to go down to 17 deg dp . I hope that's correct because you can really feel the warmth outside despite it being only 27 deg.

    27 deg with dp of 21.7 deg 73 percent humidity.

    Weatherzone says we've had 1090mm this year and if you click on full climatology it says the mean rainfall is 1060mm. I assume this is out of date ? Not the 1090mm the 1060.6mm mean rainfall for Yeppoon Esplanade (the one that has been recording since 1994)

    Seems so weird to be saying it's dry when we've had 1090mm and it's rained every month of the year bar one and more rain than 590mm last year. A little over 600mm of that fell in 6 weeks ! .
     
  29. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 26 Nov 2020
    Time: 9:15 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.6 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 27.4 C
    Min Ground Temp: 15.3 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 27.8 C
    Relative Humidity: 54 %
    Dew Point: 17.7 C
    MSL Pressure: 1014.4 hPa
    Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SE

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 2/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 25/11/20: Cloudy with Cu clouds. Warm to very warm early in the day with the temperature stable during most of the early hours before rising a little later in the early hours. Slightly warm in the morning becoming cool during the day, with the temperature rising a little slowly during the day. The temperature was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. From the late afternoon the temperature was close to average before becoming slightly warm in the evening after the temperature temporarily rose and then fell more quickly later in the evening. Stable dew point in the early hours, fell a little later in the early hours, then rose slowly early in the morning and became stable from the mid morning close to average. In the afternoon the dew point was a little variable whilst generally stable and remained close to average and stable through to the evening. Generally stable relative humidity in the early hours, dropped a little later in the early hours, moderately low before easing to slightly below average in the morning as the relative humidity stabilised. Slightly below average relative humidity during the rest of the morning and in the afternoon, returning to near average from the late afternoon and became slightly below average in the evening. Light S to SE winds became SSE to ESE from the mid morning, that became E to SE in the afternoon and SSE to ESE late in the afternoon and during the evening with calm winds at times before becoming calm later in the evening.

    Today: Near average temperature became slightly above average from later in the early hours as the temperature stabilised at that time and rose quite quickly this morning. In the past hour the temperature have rose more more slowly. Dew point was stable in the early hours, rose a little later in the early hours and this morning before stabilising in the past hour. Slightly below average relative humidity in the early hours became moderately low this morning as the relative humidity falls quite quickly. Calm winds early were followed by mostly WSW to SSW winds early this morning, then generally NNE to E winds before SE to ESE winds in the past hour.
     
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  30. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Hard Yards

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    Nice Pic there GBerg. It certainly was a nice light show that night.
    In the pic those mountains seem to interfere with the storms changing the path or weakening them. Ended up with 1mm from that night.
     
  31. Buderim Beast

    Buderim Beast Hard Yards

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  32. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    There definitely still does appear to be an increase in moisture/instability developing around early or mid December (and not just climatologically speaking either). It doesn't start as soon as December starts though so I wouldn't be setting an alarm for the 1st of Dec or anything silly like that.

    But I'd still be very cautious because it's hard to tell yet whether it'll be only be in the form of brief bouts of showers/storms with dry weather weather for the other 90% of the time.... or actual proper rain events, especially at this time of the year. In fact, I wouldn't even bother crossing fingers or anything like that just yet. I'd keep an open mind instead and just wait until the picture becomes clearer as to whether to it'll be worth getting excited or not.
     
  33. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    300mm in a week then 3 weeks dry like we had in March... That was a strange way for rain to fall, felt like a dry month as it all fell so fast and quick then oddly it was low humidity and cool in March for the rest of the month.

    Maybe we'll all get an early Christmas present from the sky.

    Lawns are starting to crisp here despite daily watering , it's most likely the sun is just evaporating it faster than it can be kept wet.

    Full sun no clouds and it just evaporates all the bird baths, burns the lawn and wilts plants. Only thing that seems to have no effect on is all the native plants bottlebrushes , grevilleas, they grow massive here .

    Coming from NZ also having lived in NZ for 12 years and never recall any droughts like Australia. That was around 1987-1999 . Though apparently they had drought or dry weather badly from 1998 to 2014. I'm sure Australia's droughts are more extreme.
     
  34. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It would be nice if the seasonal model outputs for ACCESS S could publish outputs like 500 hpa anomaly or better still, precipitable water (TPW) anomaly.
    The Access S MSLP anomally is available at the site Ken posted last week but today's Access S model update is not yet available.

    I find the rainfall outlooks not much use even when expressed as chance above median, or anomaly, or rainfalls for % chance.
    Rainfall is one the hardest things to predict in weather models at short time scale, and even harder in climate models at longer timescale.
    But I note the precipitable water estimates in short range weather forecasts are more stable between model runs and are more consistent across different models.
    At least precipitable might give us a better feel for if moisture could be around.

    I do appreciate though, it is not easy to validate TPW.
    And of course higher TPW (or TPW anomally) does not mean it will rain - as there needs to be something to trigger it to rain and that part is difficult.
    But TPW is valuable to watch, because if there is not much TPW a key ingredient for rain is missing!
     
  35. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Then further along from TPW, I find integrated vapour transport (IVT) or simply the concentration and movement of moisture of interest as well.
    The sky can only hold about 80mm of TPW (varies by latitude), so the big rain events need the replenishment of moisture (a feed from somewhere).
    Anyway this sort of pattern on IVT like the one below for about five days ahead, is becoming damn annoying --- just keeps sliding to the south.
    The Quidge and LWT (and I don't know which has priority) being key culprits.

     
  36. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Not unheard of in the Lockyer Valley. I grew up there and it became a regular thing in the early 70s and beyond ..... from errr what I was told lol
     
  37. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    The latest BOM climate outlook is out, definitely worth a look: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary

    I've included excerpts below:

    Overview
    • December to February rainfall is likely to be above average across most of Australia, except west coast Tasmania.
    • Average daytime temperatures during December to February are likely to be above the long-term average across parts of southeast and far west Australia, as well as along the northern coastline.
    • Average night-time temperatures during December to February are very likely to be above the long-term average across almost all of Australia.
    • La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across eastern Australia during summer.
    Rainfall
    "December to February wetter than average for nearly all of Australia"

    Chance of above median rainfall (Dec-Feb)


    Outlook scenario - 75% (Dec-Feb)


    Temperature
    "Warmer days for much of the southeast, as well as the far north and far west during December to February; warmer nights very likely for all of Australia"

    Chance of above median temperature (Dec-Feb)






     

    Attached Files:

  38. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Unfortunately I'd be taking that with a grain of salt, yes it would be nice for it to come off but the predicted above average rainfall for spring never came.
     
    Falling_Droplet, TrentG, Lani and 3 others like this.
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Late on the 4th looks ok for potential . Dew points around 20-23
     
  40. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Latest OCF for Gatton currently suggesting max temps peaking at 44.5C by Wed before a cooler change.

    We'll have to wait a bit longer to see whether that'll remain a realistic figure but IF it's reached, it would break that current site's previous December record of 43.4C set only last year.
     
  41. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    I agree with you. As you say, short range forecasts of TPW, while not perfect, are more reliable than those of rainfall (because of the difficulty of predicting such things as the stability of the atmosphere), and so when there is a short range forecast for high precipitable TPW on a given (near future) date, there is a relatively high probability that that will turn out to be the case. That will not guarantee rain, since that depends on whether or not there will be an activating mechanism to condense that moisture to form clouds and rain, but it will let us know that there is the potential for rain.
     
  42. Itsjustme

    Itsjustme Addicted

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    I can't see them but can hear the waterbombers.think it's for Fraser island. Been burning for more than a month now.
     
  43. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    My understanding is that the current unfavorable (for rainfall in our part of the world) positioning of the LWTs is a large part of the reason for the current persistent Quidge.
     
  44. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know if the quidge (or subtropical ridge) blocks the LWT, or if it is the LWT being unfavourable that allows the quidge to build... other things of course at play... and I do appreciate that the subtropical ridge is for the lower level and LWT is the 500hpa level.
    The LWT has been shifting it's longitude from my interpretation of the charts, which I ain't good at interpretation for current LWT as they often don't appear as classical nodes around the isobars most distant from the south pole as often described in good examples of a prominent LWT. Example below for today. Isobars closer to the south pole good for our longitude?, but outer isobars are stuffed and have no help for us at our latitude..... but I am still on my learner plates for LWT LOL


     
  45. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Gotta say i have had a gut full of the last few years. Good storm set ups then some random thing stuffs it
    Now Lanina and its buggered by LWT etc
    Like last feb we will get 500mm over a week then along comes elnino.......grrr
    Apart from that caught some fish so it was a great day
     
  46. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re BoM summer outlook. With 600+mm already for February 2020 locally this type of total usually does not happen in consecutive years. On the other hand January totals have been woeful locally for years ( except 2020 with just above average ) so on the law of averages Dec-Jan will probably be the "big" months.
     
  47. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    There's also this for the desperate (as stated previously, it only uses past La Nina years because it's a more relevant subset of all the years, it's not meant to be a direct comparison with non La Nina years)....
     
  48. Peter Meadows

    Peter Meadows Addicted

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    So just like they predicted would happen in spring then, yeah that worked out well with ONE rain event the entire 3 months and Brisbane hugely below average rainfall totals. I only take notice now of the 7 day forecast, and even then don't get any excitement until the 3 day forecast is saying at least 80% chance of rain.
     
  49. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Yip the god forsaken almost every time down grade
    Kinda got used to that downgrade sucker. Its like doing nightwork and waiting for the sun to come up.
    You know its comming hehe.
     
  50. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    On the plus side with lack of rain haven't seen any mosquitoes and barely any flies.

    Maybe I should move to Tully, they've only had just 3m of rain so far this year lol.