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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    I saw a cloud today. First one in ages, might be a sign.

    my forecast for rockhampton for the next 3 months.
    Dec: 36mm
    Jan: 44mm
    Feb: 11mm
     
  2. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, I've only skimmed through the posts. But if anyone mentioned this stuff, pls forgive me
    We have always lived on or close to the "horse lattitude"
    Boring, still and dry.
    Obviously there has been a shift.
    Weather it be the scientifically proven climate change, or the scientifically proven shift in the earth axis due to the recent major earthquakes.
    Weather it's due too the massive amount of artificial water storage in the northern hemisphere, (could also arguably shift the axis and deprive us of moisture)
    Or the proven scientific fact the the loss of ice from the poles also changes the tilt of the earth.
    Weather it's due to the magnetic poles overdue to flip , or the fact Australia dries out in an (overdue) ice age. Who knows. Couple of blizzards in the NH also locks up a lot of moisture maybe in odd areas.

    Sorry.
     
  3. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the interesting weather will be in the NH. We'll get bloody massive floods. and even more massive droughts. Head to TAS I reckon.
     
  4. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Actually im wondering if that was the same time when Brisbane had 2 consecutive days over 40c ?
     
  5. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

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    At the end of the day though, it is like smashing your television when your favourite sports team loses.

    The TV did not make them lose. The BOM is not making it dry.
     
  6. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    But they constantly get it wrong. Not just a little bit wrong but completely opposite wrong. That’s why I like thousands of others don’t even look at the BOM anymore as I don’t believe one thing the produce.
     
    glenesk and Retired Weather Man like this.
  7. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm starting to think that La-Nino's & El-No-one-knows,, how much of an influence they have directly to rain totals over Decades, and I repeat, Decades, , , yes they do effect things some years, but don't other years, 'dont get me wrong' they do influence things, but Only if the Synoptics play ball.
    So that suggest to me, if the Synoptics are favourable, then the enhance rainfall from favourable synoptics will still happen whether La-Nino or El-No one knows, are there or or not ?

    I guess could put it this way, if through Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar & La-Nino, IOD Sam etc are in place, but you only get 3 sessions of Synoptics playing ball through that period, then recieve slightly above average rain, - But, if through same period with no La-Nino and have 4, 5 or 6 sessions of favourable Synoptics, could easily recieve way above average rainfall ?
    Reckon I would be on-the-money ?

    Same goes with El-no one knows, if no Synoptics working with it, then yeah, less rain, but if Synoptics are more frequant against it, then more rain than expected, sheeze, could even overlap, could get more rain during La-No one knows than with El-Nino depending on Synoptics frequency ?

    Bottom Line,,, I think the Synoptics are a much more influencing driver then La-Anyone Knows .. :whistle: , ;) , :confused: , :cool:
     
    #11857 PlumbBob, Nov 26, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2020
  8. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @PlumbBob yes and no. Yes to the fact that synoptics have a big effect on counteracting or reinforcing the rainfall effects from La Nina.

    Nah to the no-one knows how much of an influence La Nina has over decades. No given area in Australia has ever received above average rainfall from every past La Nina.... quite far from it actually because the affected areas aren't the same with each La Nina... but at the same time, if you look at all past La Ninas years, the significant majority have caused widespread above average rain (compared to Neutral and El-Nino years).
    That's also consistent with how the physics of the atmospheric Walker Circulation associated with La Ninas cause a dipole effect with sinking air and suppressed rainfall in its eastern side but rising air and enhanced rainfall on its western side.

    Also, out of all the past La Ninas years (not individual seasons or months), there's no region of the country which has consistently received below average rainfall. But some areas still do get below average rainfall in some La Nina years.... just not on a consistent basis.

    You might find this interesting as well:

    " Unlike El Niño years, the impacts of La Niña often continue into the warm months. In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.

    The presence of La Niña increases the chance of widespread flooding. Of the 18 La Niña events since 1900 (including multi-year events), 12 have resulted in floods for some parts of Australia, with the east coast experiencing twice as many severe floods during La Niña years than El Niño years 1. Typically, some areas of northern Australia will experience flooding during La Niña because of the increase in tropical cyclone numbers.

    The relationship between La Niña strength and rainfall is closely linked. The greater the sea surface temperature and SOI difference from normal, the larger the rainfall response 2. Indeed, the wettest years on record for Australia occurred during the strong 2010–2012 and 1974 La Niña events. The 2010–12 La Niña event was particularly devastating in terms of widespread flooding across Australia, although the influence of the Indian Ocean likely also increased the widespread rainfall effect. "

    (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a020.shtml)

    Below is a graph:

    [​IMG]

    That graph is an average across eastern Australia (and also across that Apr to Nov period) though. So it doesn't mean every location in the region will be like that, nor during every month. Nevertheless you can still see a fairly clear overall relationship there.
     
  9. Stormwalker

    Stormwalker Addicted

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    @Ken Kato I heard a rumour (and it's just that) that a number of BOM staff are land banking in Tassie... any truth to it :p care to let us in on the inside knowledge! haha
     
  10. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Retired Weather Man likes this.
  11. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Slightly warm during the morning and close to average temperature in the afternoon. The temperature was variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon. As the temperature fell a little slowly tonight the temperature have been slightly warm. The dew point slowly rose in the morning and afternoon, became stable from the mid afternoon, fell slowly early tonight before stable dew point tonight while remaining close to average.

    Relative humidity eased during the morning to near average from the late morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly form the mid morning. Relative humidity was close to average in the afternoon and during tonight. Light SE to ESE winds tended SE to NE later in the morning, mostly ESE to ENE in the afternoon, followed by E to NE winds during the rest of the afternoon and EENE to NNE winds tonight. Later tonight the wind became calm.

    Last 24 hours:

     
  12. Peter Meadows

    Peter Meadows Addicted

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    That's a poor analogy. Of course the BOM in not "making it dry", but their job is to forecast and their seasonal forecasts of late have been a joke, at least for this region.
     
  13. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing wrong with the forecasting!
    They call it as they see it. The models and forecasting, attempt to for the most part predict the future based on the past. Maybe we need to input some more information. A 1-2° shift in temperature or lattitude can have big effects on the outcome.
    Do you think the Americans expected or forecasted to get halfway through the Greek alphabet.
    The models might need some tweaking to suit our hellhole hot dry world.
     
  14. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It appears that the Meteologix website have made good progress this year in getting the remainder of the entire ERA5 climate reanalysis dataset from ECMWF onto their site going back to 1950.
    So for a historical "moment" of a notably wet period in the past, below is a map of estimated total precipitable water for Queensland, Australia Day 1974.

     
  15. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    From what i have been reading here thre last few months about La Nina etc, i have a question for everybody here. Do you want to see rainfall because you are personally affected by drought ( living on a farm etc ) or because your bored of the current weather pattern? Personally my opinion is , if we get rain then all good, if we dont , life goes on and we find a way to survive. Though that is easy for me to say as i live close to the coast (Farmers no doubt would have a different point of view )

    I love sunshine , it's summer after all , my grass is dead to the point where i dont think it will even re grow again and to be honest i am not the garden type variety.

    I think we all look into long terms models and then get dissapointed if it does not prevail. Personally i have never looked at the weather beyond 4-5 days as things can change , let alone 3 months.

    Im certainly not going to blame anyone if we dont get the rainfall that most are expecting for a La Nina event .

    Remember we still have January , February and March to get sufficient rainfall.

    Cheers .
     
  16. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    27 NOVEMBER 2020
    TIME....0725
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.2C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........74%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......21C
    CURRENT WIND.........E 9Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1016.7Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD.....2/8 Cu
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........29.3C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.5C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.80C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....16.5C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......19C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1014.4Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 26Kph 1309
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No signifcant weather.
    ...............................................
    NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE.............18.0mm
    NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............105.0mm
    2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF NOV...1026.4mm
     
  17. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    The smoke from k'gari burning hangs over a dying industry.
    Cane farming is all but finished here. Variable rainfall makes farming very difficult here. Despite the great soil and access to irrigation. That dry canefield is beside the River and under constant irrigation. Evaporation is still winning out.
    At least you get some nice sunsets in hell.
     

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  18. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Hi Gleno, I want rain but to much and we want the sun back,
    My lawn and garden is dead, water tank empty and dust is reapearing on everything.
    The farmers need it and i wish it on them rhe most.
    After our last lot of rain, vegitation colours became deeper, more birds and insects etc
    I think most just want that happy meduim with rain more often not long breaks without rain
     
  19. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Well said Gleno!
    I predict we'll get catastrophic rainfall with flooding from Jan 14-23 2021 when I am up at Rainbow Beach....but I am not camping we are in a house so bring it on!
     
  20. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    How did the fires start? Was it dry lightning?
     
  21. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Latest 8 day WATL shows increased activity over Northern OZ. A bit of good news for a change, means that there is change in the weather coming after this heat.
     
  22. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 27 Nov 2020
    Time: 9:25 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 18.6 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.8 C
    Min Ground Temp: 18 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 27.3 C
    Relative Humidity: 56 %
    Dew Point: 17.8 C
    MSL Pressure: 1018.3 hPa
    Wind Speed: 7 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: ESE

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 3/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather -
    26/11/20: Mostly sunny with some Cu clouds. Slightly above average temperature from later in the early afternoon after the temperature stabilised before rising quite quickly during the morning. Close to average temperature in the afternoon becoming slightly warm in the evening as the temperature fell a little slowly. Dew point was stable in the early hours, rose a little from later in the early hours, slowly rose in the morning and afternoon, became stable from the mid afternoon, fell slowly early in the evening before stable dew point during the rest of the evening while remaining close to average. Slightly below average relative humidity in the early hours became moderately low in the morning as the relative humidity fell quite quickly, then eased during the morning to near average from the late morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly form the mid morning. Relative humidity was close to average in the afternoon and evening. Calm winds early were followed by mostly WSW to SSW winds early in the morning, then generally NNE to E winds before SE to ESE winds in the mid morning tended SE to NE later in the morning, mostly ESE to ENE in the afternoon, followed by E to NE winds during the rest of the afternoon and EENE to NNE winds in the evening. Later in the evening the wind became calm.

    Today: Slightly warm in the early hours and early this morning. The minimum temperature was reached at 3am before rising during the rest of the early hours. The temperature have returned to near average this morning. Dew point fell slowly during the early hours, rose a little later in the early hours and early morning, slightly above average before stabilising this morning and have remained close to average. Relative humidity have been slightly below average early today and this morning. Calm winds early before SE to NE winds became SSE to ESE.
     
    DDstorm, Seabreezes, PlumbBob and 3 others like this.
  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The infamous 2014 Brisbane hailstorm came up in my fb memories just before. 6 years ago to this day but I still remember it like it was yesterday.

    It was particularly destructive in a number of southside suburbs such as Moorooka, Annerley, etc, as well as the CBD itself where a number of high-rise buildings also suffered smashed windows. Damage also occurred in areas like Canungra. The main damage was from very large hail but wind damage also occurred.

    In some sections of Moorooka/Annerley, I saw almost every mature tree with big bruise marks and pits all down the southern sides of their trunks, many were stripped of leaves, lots of white marks were left on concrete footpaths and driveways (similar to what's happened in some of the bigger hailstorms such as the one in Sydney 1999) and in some streets, almost every south facing window of every house was boarded up or smashed.
    It was one of the most devastating Brisbane hailstorms in recent decades (damage bill well over $1 billion and made the top 25 list of billion dollar weather disasters in the world that year).

    @Tsunami and @Mezo was this just before you moved to SE QLD? I have a vague recollection that you came here around 2012 Mezo but I’m not sure.
     
    #11873 Ken Kato, Nov 27, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
  24. Multiversity

    Multiversity One of Us

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    KK. Great post there with 2014 Bris hailstorm.
    Q1-one of the houses in Moorooka, Annerley photo has solar panels - did they escape damage/ or is photo post replacement?
    Q2 - Miami post Hurricane Andrew was I think number 1 insurance event - is that still the case?



     
  25. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was a campfire over a month ago. Now over 1/3 of the island is gone.
    Very rare and beautiful ecosystem.
     
  26. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great storms at rainbow when we miss out here.
     
  27. glenesk

    glenesk Addicted

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    Although living in suburbia you believe that long term drought does have little impact on yourself. I believe that if a long term change does not happen soon and this pattern consists, that concept will all change.
    After that rain in October there was no run off to fill water storage. A few weeks later and looking around,the ground could take a lot more rain to get ground water levels back. If this la nina does not fill water storage, we face going to a less positive rain pattern with around 50-60% (total speculation) water storage. Water prices will surge, irrigators will be restricted, pushing food prices higher.It will effect everyone when total water storage is at or below 60% with no positive rainfall going into winter.
    So if by this time next year, water storage is at 30% and the forecast is for a bellow adverage rainfall. I would think your dry lawn will be the least of your problems. The queensland election, water secriuty was touched on, some people believe it to be a big concern and needs addressing. Some want a green lawn and see nice storms. People trying to make a living of the land or in touch with our enviroment must be near breaking point.
    The rain we got in October. i tried to improve my pastures,knowing that when it rains i need to take full advantage of it. The time and cost is quite considerable. After not getting any follow up up rain, that is all but burnt off. What isn't yet will be after this heatwave. I am 100% sure bom will get the heatwave right.
    I did not only based this decission only on the 10- 15 day forecast, or bom. But the fact i never suspected during a la nina year that i would not recieve no usefull rainfall for November and now the start of December.
    Coming of the back off 2019 and the 2020 winter. i have to do something, because when it rains again i suspect it will be once again short lived.
    Other option is sell up and buy a unit on coast and worry about my 10 square metres of grass.

    My 2 cents
     
  28. Peter Meadows

    Peter Meadows Addicted

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    I have a gardening/lawn mowing business so yeah rainfall means money. So I tend to sympathise with those who livelihoods depend on rain (farmers etc) more so than those whinging about having to water their garden or not having a storm to chase.
    I don't need big events, couldn't care less about storms etc all I want is some half consistent average rainfall not months of next to nothing followed by a one off event. Beyond that I'm starting to worry about SE Qld water storage as if this dry continues we could be back to that dire situation 2009 facing the prospect of running out of water.
     
  29. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Totally aggree. Storm chasing and watching is a bonus extra which we love
     
  30. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Hey Ken. I was here from 2000 to 2008 then nipped of to Townsville till 2016
    I used to sit up there watching the great storms down here while up there it was 35c at 8pm and not a storm in site...AKA brownsville
     
  31. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Just seen on BW weather chat talk of big storms for SE Qld next Wednesday.
    Bsch is showing a little interest for next Wednesday Thursday Friday
     
  32. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, runs in recent days have been suggesting a general increase in some moisture/instability (but unclear whether I’m the form of just brief showers/storms or something more substantial) from early December so I posted about it along with a couple of other people, but no-one really seemed interested in talking about it so I gave up in the end.
     
  33. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Rays74

    Rays74 One of Us

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    Cruising around Buderim and Montville today.
    Magic part of the world here.
    Good breeze , cooler and not muggy up the the mountains.
    Sun has a sting in it though.





     
  35. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    I did see your post, didnt answer as knew nothing at that time. 2nd thought it would be mid december and 3rd i thought next week was still November....
    Gezz the years flying
     
  36. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    What would happen if Brisbane did run out of water and irrigators weren't allowed to irrigate anymore? How would people react?
     
  37. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    La-Nina exists in the Pacific, but its effects are simply not being felt here. You can sugar-coat it all you want, but that's the fact of the matter. It's nearly December for crying out loud and the patterns clearly have not changed. We had a period there a while ago where we thought something was changing but it has quickly reverted back to this rubbish.

    Don't give me that, "La-Nina doesn't guarantee rainfall over your house," rubbish. Don't throw up stupid rainfall deciles map of October and try to prove otherwise. We can all see it. Use your friggin eyes. One rain event over western QLD early last month and a storm event in SEQ (which places away from SEQ completely missed out on), doesn't equal a pattern change. Those sorts of irregular events can happen during a neutral year or El-Nino. They weren't even that significant in terms of rainfall.

    Go back and look at 2007, while it was dry throughout until November, from November onwards saw a clear transition to much above average rainfall at least away from the coast. This filtered onto the coast early in 2008. 2010 was just wet everywhere. This year? October saw only slightly above average rainfall across QLD and November is about to be arguably one of QLD's driest throughout the state. This all going on while a La-Nina that is described as being moderate, exists in the Pacific.

    The BoM, while many go to some extreme lengths to defend them, have been so far wrong and I'm willing to bet even they have no ****ing clue what's going on other than to use the same old climate change excuse (which may well be true). I said this in the other thread, but I watched a webinar they had in late October where they went through November's predicted temperatures and rainfall and I chuckled when one of them said, "Temperatures should be average or below average for November due to the rain and cloud cover." Well ****, that couldn't have been any further from the truth could it?

    The reality of it is that this is becoming the new norm whether people want to admit it or not and my suggestion to those whose livelihoods depend on the weather is to start making big plans to move. Don't even bother trying to pass down your family business to your kids because you're only setting them up for disaster.
     
  38. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Yeah, mate - late 2012 we moved up from Victoria. Not sure how you remember that, haha. A lot of great weather events in those first few years - Oswald, Debbie, lots of big storms, usually in November like the one you mentioned and the big hailer that tore through the south western side of Brisbane (will never forget driving home from work and seeing car after car with windows obliterated and side mirrors hanging off. There was also one week in November 2013 that was just incredible - day after day of supercells and squall lines, blew my naïve little Victorian mind!

    And of course, my favourite SE QLD weather memory was out at Moonie almost seven years to the day. Just about the most photogenic thing I've ever seen. The only other person I know of that was out there on that day was Jeff Higgins lol






    Ahhh, take me back!
     
  39. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Wow nice pics
     
  40. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    @MegaMatch I don't think anyone's saying that the effects aren't being felt here? I think even blind Freddy can see that.

    "La-Nina doesn't guarantee rainfall over your house," rubbish" -- yep it doesn't and never has because the widespread areas of above average rainfall don't affect the same areas each time. I'm sure you've seen the collection of rainfall maps from past La Nina years which show that.

    "Don't throw up stupid rainfall deciles map of October and try to prove otherwise." -- Who are you referring to? If it's me, I actually posted maps for Aug, Sep, and Oct which showed the widespread areas decile 8 and above rainfall through the interior and parts of SE Australia. Many people who live in those areas have also said it's the best rainfall they've received in years after so much dryness. I remember just a few weeks ago talking to someone in SA in the northeast pastoral region and they were excited because it had been the best rainfall they'd had in about 10 years.
    If it was that common in those areas in non La-Nina years, they wouldn't show up as decile 8 and above rainfall - instead, they'd show up as average.
    https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50626924783_d08003b72c_o.png
    https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50627770527_1be428442c_o.png
    https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50626924783_d08003b72c_o.png
    https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50626924783_d08003b72c_o.png

    "One rain event over western QLD early last month and a storm event in SEQ (which places away from SEQ completely missed out on), doesn't equal a pattern change." -- Far from one rain event in western QLD. Part of my work involves monitoring conditions across the state and the country, week in, week out, and the huge swaths of showers and storms (rain areas on occasion) that kept forming so day after day for quite awhile through large parts of the interior, sometimes stretching for 2000 to 3000km were mighty impressive, including by those monthly standards (while we kept missing out). This happened on multiple months.

    I also posted this earlier:

    " Unlike El Niño years, the impacts of La Niña often continue into the warm months. In eastern Australia, the average December-March rainfall during La Niña years is 20% higher than the long-term average, with eight of the ten wettest such periods occurring during La Niña years. This is particularly notable for the east coast, which tends to be less affected by La Niña during the winter months but can experience severe flooding during La Niña summers.

    The presence of La Niña increases the chance of widespread flooding. Of the 18 La Niña events since 1900 (including multi-year events), 12 have resulted in floods for some parts of Australia, with the east coast experiencing twice as many severe floods during La Niña years than El Niño years 1. Typically, some areas of northern Australia will experience flooding during La Niña because of the increase in tropical cyclone numbers.

    The relationship between La Niña strength and rainfall is closely linked. The greater the sea surface temperature and SOI difference from normal, the larger the rainfall response 2. Indeed, the wettest years on record for Australia occurred during the strong 2010–2012 and 1974 La Niña events. The 2010–12 La Niña event was particularly devastating in terms of widespread flooding across Australia, although the influence of the Indian Ocean likely also increased the widespread rainfall effect. "

    (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a020.shtml)

    Below is a graph:
    https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50648159991_3265ca6a1f_o.png "


    I even repeatedly posted my own stats that I compiled for Brisbane which clearly show that on one hand, past La Nina years have been associated with above median rain during a significantly bigger proportion of months than El Nino years but at the same time, it's been far from 100%.

    You even said it yourself, "La-Nina exists in the Pacific, but its effects are simply not being felt here." The existence of a La Nina has never been based on what areas it's rain affects. The extremely dry weather in eastern QLD (and for this month at least, much of Australia except the southwest) is living proof of that. It's like saying the subtropical high pressure belt doesn't exist in NSW and southern QLD because both areas flooding rain for a few months one year.

    But again, most people seemed more interested in the incessant complaining about forecasts and how it is or isn't a La Nina which has been going virtually every.... single.... day on here, week after week. Hardly anyone seems interested in talking about the actual day to day weather or upcoming potential storms, etc in the short range anymore which I thought this thread was all about. And when someone does post anything about the possibility of upcoming storms, as rare as it is these days, it tends to be swamped out by all the endless complaining. And when someone does post anything about longwave patterns, La Nina, etc, the bloodhounds come out en-masse to ridicule what they have to say.

    Like I've said here many times before, I couldn't give a toss about whether someone believes in BoM forecasts or not although it would be nice if they could back up their arguments with some form of evidence. Of course when someone actually does "defend" the Bureau by presenting evidence (which is actually sometimes true), they're labelled BoM defenders.
    I also don't mind at all whether people complain about the hellhole this place is (read: has become). I do it myself on here and I do it all the time with friends. And anyone would be living in a cave not to understand how much of an impact this also has on people's livelihoods.
    But 99% of the posts on this thread these days are now just dominated by constant ridiculing of anything to do with La Nina or anyone who even dares post anything constructive about it. And virtually no-one seems interested in anything else including day to day weather. For some reason, many of the other threads on this forum aren't anywhere near as bad.

    I often check out weather forums in some other parts of the world too and while none of them are by no means immune to squabbles, complaining, etc, many of them are great examples of how it's easy to discuss weather and climate in a really fascinating way without the forum constantly denegerating. This is a nice example: https://stormtrack.org/community/th...rtant-high-instability-or-strong-shear.17803/
    It doesn't have to be all highly technical talk for the knowledgeable few either.
    Sure, they, and arguably most other parts of the world for that matter get far more interesting weather than us, as well as not having to cry out for rain all the time.... but it shows that people can make a weather forum fascinating reading rather than a constantly tense enviromment full of passive aggressive comments where people are too afraid to post anything that happens to go against intuition for fear of getting ridiculed.

    Some people may argue that it should be ok to post your own views on some aspect of weather/climate here and I agree but it's also a two-way street. And I think there eventually needs to be a line drawn in the sand as to which direction people want this thread to head - one which is constantly filled by a tense atmosphere and the only posts every day are simply ridiculing forecasts or anything to do with whether La Nina exists somewhere.... or one where people have interesting convos and good banter about weather/climate without having to agree on everything.

    I might follow your lead Mega and take a break from this thread for a few weeks. It's got nothing to do at all with BoM-bashing, etc etc. It's simply because whenever I, or anyone else posts about La Nina or something that may be coming up in the short term, people seem more interested in ridiculing and nothing else. Feels like I'm talking to a brick wall.
    I'm not for one second suggesting people agree with a certain line of thinking or look at any upcoming weather event through rose coloured glasses. Rose coloured glasses actually irrirate me when it comes to this place. After all, we all know how mundane a lot of weather "events" turn out in this place with only a few exceptions. And it's good to complain and vent from time to time, especially given the area we live in. As I said, I've done it myself many times.

    But I'm simply not interested in the endless ridiculing of anything La Nina related. And I'm not talking about ridiculing just because it's against the BoM or some kind of forecast, etc etc. I honestly couldn't care less about whether people have negative or positive views of the Bureau's seasonal rain forecasts. People will note that I don't usually make any comments defending or criticising those forecasts because I just don't really care.
    And I'm also not referring to any discussion on the technical aspects of La Nina. I'm talking about this endless ridiculing of anything to do with La Nina for ridiculing's sake without any effort or interest shown in trying to understand the mechanics of it. Personally, I'm tired of it. And that's all this thread seems to be about these days. At some point, you'd have to ask yourself, why even have a thread with this title in the first place if that's all that people do in it.

    It's actually starting to become quite toxic to be honest. If people want to do that so much, I'd suggest setting up a separate thread for it. I don't know about anyone else but I'm more interested in the how's and why's of weather including day to day weather as well as friendly banter, and this thread doesn't seem to reflect that anymore.
    So keeping to the theme of posting something constructive or interesting... well at least I think so anyway, here's a tweet from a meteorologist from New Zealand's NIWA. But bearing in mind that this map is a forecast, not an observed animation so there's no guarantees of it eventuating and this field is also mainly focused on rainfall from widespread convection in the tropics rather than that from smaller scale convection or synoptic systems outside the tropics. The 200hpa velocity potential anomalies are basically correlated with how much large-scale upper level divergence there is (and therefore rising air) and upper convergence (sinking air):

     
    #11890 Ken Kato, Nov 27, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2020
  41. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    I think lanina is well and truely here its just being buggered up by certain other stupied things like the LWT amoung other things. SE qld luck at present. Get a good system and along comes never before what ever and poof gone.
    Apart from last year. Dry as and along come record breaking heating above Antarctica , if memory serves me correct, a whole 70c gain in atmospheric heating, i went wow not realising the impact fires that came after.. Perfect storm.
    Things will change when the atmosphere lets it.
    If there hasnt been major flooding by march in S E qld. Ill sit down with my straw hat, a bottle of tomato sauce and Worcester sauce and eat that mongrel hat. Oh and a beer
     
  42. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    CFS seems to be getting more aggressive in terms of above average rainfall for December and January. The only way to know whether this La Nina has had an impact is by the end of summer.
     
  43. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    I think the bureau are starting to wonder what's going on too, they hint at that in the latest Climate Driver update.
     
  44. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    @Ken Kato

    Firstly, I wasn't talking about you when I said that. It was directed at a few other individuals from elsewhere who I know lurk here and to shut down someone's argument, post a map of recent months' rainfall and conclude that you don't have a right to whinge because you're under an area of white or light blue, which is rubbish.

    To your first point regarding those rains over western areas, that happened way back in August and September. When you look at October and November, there is nothing there that stands out at all as opposed to previous Nina years where the rain kept coming instead of drying out and looking like this (link doesn't work). I think most of us expected it to get wetter rather than drier, and I include the qualified mets at the Bureau in this because they've been consistently forecasting higher than average rainfall and lower max temps to persist through spring and summer, but it's instead gotten drier and drier! So when you say that every La-Nina is different, has any La-Nina actually gotten drier over spring and early summer like this one has?

    And as for the toxicity and all the complaining, some if it is completely justified if you ask me. We're sick of being told it's likely we'll see a shift in the pattern and then a few months on it still hasn't changed. And it's unfortunate the forecasters themselves are the ones who have to cop it the most when this isn't any fault of any weather forecaster either, but rather what they have to work with to arrive at said forecast. Maybe, just maybe, what used to apply so heavily to these models in the earlier days aren't so much applicable anymore given the modern world with all this climate change going on (people can deny it all they want, but it's happening).

    You also mention how you don't see this sort of toxic behaviour and complaining on other forums or region threads; perhaps that's to do with our region becoming one of the driest in recent years compared to others where they actually have something to talk about? To me, the complaining is only natural when it comes to a joke of a place like ours has become.

    I agree with you about the people who are not calling it a La-Nina and go as far as to say La-Nina does not exist. It exists, it's happening right now but as I said, its effects are simply not being felt here, for whatever reason. Personally, I would just ignore such posts dismissing La-Nina because they're scientifically 100% wrong.

    I am sorry if you took my op as a dig at you Ken. It was another vent posted purely out of frustration because I'm still not seeing any noteworthy events in the near future.

    now to crawl back into my hidey hole.
     
  45. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

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    @MegaMatch ok all good then. On your point about October, those widespread areas of above average rain did actually continue through the interior. It wasn't just way back in Aug and Sep.
    1st map above is the longer term median October rainfall.
    2nd map is how much actually fell in October this year.
    3rd map is the deciles averaged across Aug to Oct from past La Nina years.
    4th map is just a fraction of all the lightning detected from a few days during those outbreaks

    I'm not sure about you but those maps show to me that what fell in the interior in that Aug-Oct period was closer to what's happened in past La Ninas than out of all years including non La Nina years in terms how widespread the decile 7 to 8 and above rainfall was through the interior and parts of SE Australia (not the exact geographical positioning).
    Of course, the similarity stopped this month. Who knows if next month will resume that similarity or keep it stopped.

    And it's not just the rainfall maps which reflect it either. I'm not sure if you remember but if not, day after day, for quite a length of time, there were also consistent huge impressive outbreaks of storms across big swaths of the interior during October with big amounts of anomalous moisture levels feeding deep into the interior before some of it streamed down to SE Australia. Mind you, it was pretty convective a lot of the time so some places did far better than others but I saw lots of photos and videos going around on social media from excited outback homestead owners during that month of water covering barren lands, even to the point where some big sections of the outback resembled a network of rivers and lakes from the air where there were previously none.
    On another occasion, someone from the NSW south coast even commented that it hadn't stopped raining for ages "everywhere in Australia" and that they'd had enough of all the flooding there. Then I informed him that it wasn't like that all around Australia. But it does still go back to what PeteJ said a few weeks ago - that our impressions of it are strongly coloured by where we live.

    Some of this eventually reached SE QLD later in the month but we were sitting there for ages watching all that go off over vast sections of the inland day after day while we got zilch, right up until almost the last week of the month.
     
  46. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I remember, but I look at October and I see much above average through the guts but slightly above across QLD. That still doesn't change the fact that November has reverted back to extremely dry again, and areas that have missed out over the last few months still aren't seeing any rain. It could also be debated that early spring could have had some IOD influence as well, unlike right now where the IOD's influence generally lessens over summer.

     
  47. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    I don't see why people get so upset over a forecast that doesn't pan out. Break the word down, the 'fore' means before. Cast means best guess; it's not like they knew & told fibs.
    If they KNEW it'd be called "the weather schedule."

    Similarly, I've noticed a trend towards whining ever since LaNina & El Nino came into the regular vocab of weather watchers. We don't automatically see a freezing cold day on the first day of winter do we? So why is little Miss La Nina expected to perform to her peak as soon as someone declares she's here?

    Weather watching can be fun, no matter what the weather is; you just have to appreciate what is around you.

    And no, we don't have a perfect system, a miracle machine that can accurately predict the weather; apart from the fact that we can never be 100% sure; (how scary would it be if we could know precisely what will happen & when?) It's an impossibility so why blame the dedicated people who DO get it right far more times than they get it wrong ( cos no-one counts those days do they?) They are just like you & me, human beings, don't expect them to be Gods (The thought of a God called Kato somewhat bothers me :eek:)
    Weather can be frustrating, but there is no-one to blame; if the effects of the weather are causing you grief, put your energies into offsetting those effects rather than trying to point fingers at others for your misfortune.

    And now for me, back to the exciting world of will it or won't it? If it will, where will it? Where won't it?
     
  48. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep Mega, for sure. The bottom line is, most of eastern QLD and when it comes to this month, much of Australia has hardly reaped any of the rainfall benefits from this La Nina apart from those exceptions in late October, and July to some extent whereas large areas have. Up until the start of this month of course. It's as simple as that, and it's been like that since this La Nina started... so far at least anyway.
     
  49. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I had a go at the Bureau when I shouldn't have, I realise that. Like I said, they're only working with the data they have but in my opinion there are factors unbeknownst to us, nor the models, that are causing dry periods to become longer and wet periods to become shorter, in some areas more than others. I look at the northern hemisphere and can't believe how much cloud and rain they get up there. December and there's still a string of tropical lows running across the Arafura Sea. What gives.