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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.
Thanks Ken for the write up. Much appreciated.
Long term models. The Christmas gift that keeps on giving EC out to 240. Wetter signals screaming at us as we head into summer, so don't think these sorts of forecasts will sit in long range land for too much longer...
@Bello Weather the overall shift towards a long fetch of easterlies and the high pressure belt contracting further south in about a week or two's time is something we haven't seen for awhile either and is more reminiscent of summer and La Nina. Not completely but it's better than what we've had.
Doesn't automatically translate to widespread rain starting as soon as that happens though. My concern is still the bit of ridginess persisting up the coast. But once that goes, it should be better.
please no deep trough/ECL...means dry for the rest of QLD usually.
Copy and paste job from a post I made elsewhere:
" A few interesting things I'd like to talk about:
Really handy rainfall recorded in a number of locations on the Downs from yesterday's storms (e.g. up to 92mm at Brigalow Bridge) but not all places got good rainfall.
Tomorrow's (Friday) thunderstorm potential in SEQ (somewhat better in western and slightly inland southern parts; closer to an eachway yes/no bet elsewhere; potential for the odd severe storm as well but won't affect all locations).
FINALLY some cooler relief developing mid to late next week in SEQ but staying oppressively hot until then.
Potential shift in the overall pattern of weather systems late next week with a long fetch of onshore easterly winds developing as the belt of subtropical high pressure contracts further south more typical of summer and La Nina (but this does **not** automatically mean lots of rain starts straight away because it depends on whether a ridge persists up the coast and prevents anything beyond just some showers).
Anyway, about Friday – the initial potential looks better in western and slightly inland southern parts as far as SEQ goes due to better moisture in the lower atmosphere and less capping there.
While you also couldn't rule out the chance of showers/storms eventually spreading across other parts of SEQ afterwards due to the decent southwesterly steering winds aloft (stronger than yesterday's), northern and coastal areas are close to an eachway bet due to the stronger capping and less moisture depth there.
Regardless, I think there'll still be storms in the region and it's likely a few of the storms will quickly intensify as they move across the coastal plains and interact with the seabreeze front as well as moister air.
It's just that it's what happens afterwards which remains to be seen. Either they weaken in the heavily capped environment as they try to reach the coastline itself, or the steering winds will be enough to sweep a line or mass of storms onto the coast while they continue to intensify.
Shear will be stronger than yesterday and although not huge, it could still be enough to help the odd storm in the region to become severe.
For those locations which do manage to get a severe storm, any of these hazards are possible: large hail, damaging winds, or short bursts of intense rainfall.
Excessive prolonged morning cloud cover shouldn't be an issue, especially since we don't have a big upper trough to our west.
So keep in mind that in some areas, it may not be until late afternoon or night-time when any storms approach...... and that there's some uncertainty about how widespread or localised they'll be.
If I had to bet money on it, I’d probably say at the very least, some activity, strong or weak will sweep right through to some sections of the coast but it’s so close to going the other way that it’s hard to commit.
SOME OF YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL ON THE DOWNS/NORTHERN NSW TABLELANDS:
92mm - Brigalow Bridge
60mm - Glen Niven Dam
51mm - Bedarra alert gauge
48mm - Bottle Tree alert gauge
44mm - Upper Quart Pot Creek
42mm - Cherrabah
38mm - Wallangarra
53mm - Tenterfield
32mm - Drake
Map valid for between 9am and midnight Friday. "
La Nina will show herself with a vengeance.
Northern NSW are thumbing their noses at SE Qld. Look at all that rain just south of the border!
Does the BoM not put much faith in Access-C? 40% 0-4mm for tomorrow for Ipswich, even though it has a big spread of 20-60mm in the area.
Yep it's just beyond belief chunky! How is it not possible that some of that activity can't find its way into some of our region tonight just beggers belief.
The current version of ACCESS-C is actually one of the most highly regarded models within the Bureau @Mezo
But at the end of the day, it’s also one of a number of models and the forecaster will often manually edit and adjust forecasts before they go out after looking at forecast soundings, how different models are handling the situation, local effects, etc.
By vengeance do you mean it will be as dry as buggery, not the usual normal good wet?
BOM put out the 3 month forecast again today. I went hmmmm.
Gives me some hope for tomorrow night.
Yeah, that's what I thought. Seems fairly accurate just from my own observations, as well. The discrepancy is huge though! Do they think there's a chance they won't form at all or erring on the side of caution that they might be so isolated that its a toss of the coin between 0mm and 50mm?
Hopefully tomorrow is similar to that night in December last year (can't remember exact date) where they had a similar forecast and we ended up getting about 60mm and Brisbane over 100mm.
I don’t think there’s much question that storms will form in our region @Mezo
To me at least, the bigger question is how likely they are to reach the coast itself. If you look at current OCF, there’s a number of coastal locations for which no models are going for any precip at all or in some cases, only about a quarter of them. The strong coastal capping and less depth of moisture would be the biggest countributors to that. But go just a bit further inland and the number of models gong for precip rises up to 50% or higher.
My feeling is that based on past setups with half decent strength SW steering winds aloft, showers/storms will probably still reach some sections of the coast. But geez it’s also close to going the other way (or being more localised than expected) that you couldn’t be absolutely certain about it. Therefore it’s wise to tone down the probabilities a bit near the coast but still keep a realistic chance on. One of those things where it’s never black and white until you can look at it in hindsight.
P.S. I should also mention that those forecast rainfall ranges are based on certain percentages of all the models used that are going for certain rainfall amounts, regardless of what ACCESS-C is going for.
Also never a good idea to pay too much attention to forecast rainfall amounts when it’s from showers and storms of course either, unless most of the totals are extremely low because of dry air of widespread extreme amounts.
That is also a concern.
Who's up for queensland holiday?
Banff is not the only place you can see red falling leafs. Come to our world heritage park and see the same. All natural event, while you can.
GFS a little off the mark tonight.
That's because 6z runs on BSCH don't show 3-hrly rainfall to 10pm. Here is 00z:
There would be a line up to punch the ******** who started that.
Here you can see just how much the Warwick Storm Cell dwarfed the size of the Toowoomba cell. In the end it was a series of storms in a line moving north diagonally behind this that dropped all the lightning activity but well up behind the range on the Downs. Very noticeably clear air space between the two.
Another view further towards Aratula and my last few shots before heading up through Cunninghams Gap.
This poor sunflower got electrocuted.
Last one for now. Still haven't gone through all my shots. Still trying to get it right. Blended full shot of lightning going off.
The temperature eased further during the morning and returned to near average from the late morning as the temperature rose more slowly from the mid morning. Tonight the temperature became slightly warm while falling reasonably steadily. Dew point fell during the morning and returned to near average from the late morning, fell more slowly in the afternoon before rising a little early tonight and then fell slowly later tonight but have remained close to average.
Relative humidity have been near average from the mid morning with the relative humidity falling more slowly from the mid morning. Early tonight the relative humidity was slightly below average and near average during the rest of tonight. Light NE to ESE winds in the morning, SE to NE in the afternoon before E to SE winds from the late afternoon. During tonight the wind tended to ENE to NNE before calm winds later tonight.
Last 24 hours:
Woke this morning around 2.30 to light drizzle, up for work and still goin. Noice
Yeah radar was looking a tad pretty before. I note yesterday’s EC did have some activity for the wee hours of this morning though. That particular lot (there’s also a bit more developing on the eastern Downs at the moment though) shouldn’t have too much of an effect on any activity later today although there are those issues I mentioned yesterday.
Access S update issued yesterday.
Quidge may have had enough of our frustrations, and potentially going away to give us some relief ?
Good morning Brisbane...almost the weekend
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
4 DECEMBER 2020
CURRENT DEW POINT.......22C
CURRENT WIND.........E 6Kph
CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Sc, 5/8 double layered Ac, 3/8 Ci
CURRENT WEATHER...Smoke haze
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..0.0mm
SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........31.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........22.3C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+1.95C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....20.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......22C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1018.4Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 21Kph 1138
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze.
DECEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE..............0.0mm
DECEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL............127.3mm
2020 RAINFALL TO DATE...............1188.0mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC...1153.7mm
Among the frustrations with our weather in recent years some have observed and commented that it appears we now get notable rain in a short period, and longer periods of below normal rainfall.
I have looked at whether this is evident in data (used Gatton station data for rain 1900 to 2019) and counted the number of months in each calendar year when rainfall exceeded the long term median for each month.
The data (at least for Gatton anyway) in the plot below backs up people observations.
Hard to be optimistic for today with all this usual cloud cover from the previous days storms in northern NSW. Ken also mentions capping being a potential problem as well.
This capping issue really plagues coastal SE Qld. Guess it's a consequence of the strong sea breeze. Double edged sword, keeps us a cool but drives away the storms unless they are strong enough to override the cap.
Yep @TweedStorm but there should still be showers and storms developing in the general region later today. And possibly the odd severe cell around too. Somewhat better potential in the south, lower in the north. Concerns about cloud cover always come up in discussions on potential storm days but unless it's really widespread and prolonged, it won't normally stop storms from forming. Only takes some clearer areas for a few hours to allow enough heating. Whether your place gets anything is another matter. Should still be enough sunshine around regardless.
It's more a question of whether lots of them will sweep right across to the coastline itself while intensifying after interacting with the seabreeze front/moister air or whether they'll weaken into messy thundery showers once they get further into the seabreezed enviromment along the coastline (and also how widespread or localised they'll be).
My money's still on showers/storms making it to some sections of the coast, mainly in the south although I can't be completely certain about that, and it remains to be seen whether they'll be intensifying storms, or just some crappy dregs by the time they do that.
I'm referring just to the SE Coast district for this scenario by the way, not NE NSW.
Light rain through much of yesterday evening and into the night - though totals not huge. Spotted one total on the hills of 165mm from storms through yesterday and last night. Has been a relatively wet week here with a heap of light rain, but only 12mm total, up to 1327mm for the year to date. Clear blue skies this morning and temps climbing quickly -> good chance of some more storms kicking off this arvo, and likely closer to the coast.
Apologies for the leftovers from last night now blocking the sun further north right now, but that clearance is moving across at a good speed, so a good chance you'll see the sun in the next few hours. Look forward to sharing the day with you all.
Ah, ok. Will have to remember that. It actually did pretty well then.
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 4 Dec 2020
Time: 7:35 AM
Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.1 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 31.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 19.6 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 26.7 C
Relative Humidity: 72 %
Dew Point: 21.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1017.8 hPa
Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: NNW
Present Weather: Visibility reduced by smoke
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground dry
Notes of yesterday weather - 3/12/20: Partly cloudy with Cu and Ci clouds. Smoke haze. Very warm start to the day as the temperature fell slowly, easing during the morning and became near average from the late morning. In the evening the temperature became slightly warm. Stable dew point in the early hours and was moderately high before easing back to slightly above average in the morning as the dew point fell slowly. From the late morning the dew point returned to near average from the late morning, fell slowly in the afternoon before rising a little early in the evening before falling slowly later in the evening while remaining close to average. Relative humidity rose slowly in the early hours, slightly above average becoming near average from the mid morning after the relative humidity that fell quickly in the morning fell more slowly. The relative humidity in the early evening was slightly below average and near average during the rest of the evening. Light ENE to SE winds early, N to ENE winds later in the early hours with some calm winds, NE to ESE in the morning, SE to NE in the afternoon before E to SE winds from the late afternoon. Winds tended ENE to NNE in the evening before calm winds later in the evening.
Today: At the start of the day the temperature stopped falling and rose very slowly during the rest of the early hours and was warm. While the temperature rose this morning the temperature have eased a little to slightly warm. Dew point slowly rose in the early hours and a little more quickly this morning and have been slightly above average after the dew point was near average at the start of the day. Relative humidity have been slightly below average, which was steady in the early hours and started to fall this morning. Calm winds early before NNW to NE winds this morning.
Some light drizzle here at Sunnybank Hills about 5 a.m. this morning (Friday, December 4th, 2020). Would only have been a small fraction of a millimetre. Hopefully baby steps towards something more significant.
Ok third attempt , image kept posting twice
Seems people in the region are watering at midday
Also you can't see the dry spot but this is from watering with rain water in the garden and underground water for the grass. Just holding on .
Ok i tried not sure what's going on double posts the first one from council and isn't showing my photo lol.
Edited seems it won't allow it on the same post . Ok I see it now .
There's a dry patch behind me can't see it more facing NW /W that I thought was the sprinklers not working it's because the sun seems to burn the grass from morning to afternoon.
I was curious as to how much effect that 60 mm of rain at Glen Niven Dam had on the water level in the dam, so I had a look. This is what I found.
The water height of 4 mile creek at Glen Niven Dam TM was 877.60 m (above sea level) during the first half of Thursday last week (November 26th, 2020), and fell by 17 cm to a minimum of 877.43 m at 15:00 (3 p.m.), Wednesday this week (December 2nd, 2020), before rising by 10 cm in 1 hour to be 877.53 m at 16:00 (4 p.m.) on that day. The water level continued to rise, albeit at a slower rate, until it got back up to 877.60 m at 3:00 (3 a.m.) yesterday (Thursday, December 3rd, 2020).
So the water level fell by 17 cm in a little over 6 days, then rose by 17 cm in 12 hours. Thus the recent rain delivered a little under one week's worth of water to the dam in the first 12 hours.
The water height remained at 877.60 m until 1:00 (1 a.m.) today (Friday, December 4th, 2020), and then slowly started to rise again. As at the time of writing, the water level of 4 mile creek at Niven Dam TM is up to 877.76 m, as at 09:00 (9 a.m.) today, 33 cm above its minimum value on Wednesday afternoon. This suggests that the dam has had an inflow of close to two weeks in less than two days.
The height of the spillway is 879.35 m, so the water is now 1.60 m below the spillway. The dam has a capacity of 180 ML.
The screenshot below shows a plot of the River Heights for 4 mile creek at Niven Dam TM for the last seven days. The second screenshot shows a table of these Heights from the beginning of Wednesday, December 2nd, 2020 to 9 a.m Friday, December 4th, 2020.
Today is the worst of the lot so far, 32C at 11:15am along with the odd whisp of high cloud. Grass all dead, soil completely dry, birds all huddled in the shade wherever they can find it. Good thing we provide a bird bath for them to drink from because mother nature sure isnt catching them a break.
Veey unhappy working outdoors for a while today. Hot, 35.2C & going up, 35%RH and calm, a bit of cloud about but all clear towards the SW. Feels like mother nature could very well throw a curve ball today, not of the frozen variety please.
Your bore water could be starting to effect the grass. Have you had it tested?
3pm and not a spot on the radar........lets hope not a fffffffff.
@Tsunami extract from a post I made yesterday...
" So keep in mind that in some areas, it may not be until late afternoon or night-time when any storms approach...... and that there's some uncertainty about how widespread or localised they'll be.
If I had to bet money on it, I’d probably say at the very least, some activity, strong or weak will sweep right through to some sections of the coast but it’s so close to going the other way that it’s hard to commit. "
Meanwhile above are some past correlations between EC's forecast rainfall accumulations for Archerfield and what actually ended up being recorded there. The numbers in each cell represent the number of times the relevant forecast amount has matched up with the relevant observed amount.
In this particular example, EC (using last night's 12z run) forecasted 0mm for Archerfield between 9am today and 9am tomorrow.
Out of the 30 times it's done that using the 12z runs for the +36hr forecast lead time, 28 of those times resulted in no rain being measured there while 2 of those times have resulted in between 0.2 and 9mm falling there.
Still not a terribly big sample size and convective rainfall amounts are also often extremely erratic for a given pinpoint location like that but should give a general idea of the relative chances of different amounts based on what's happened in the past.
P.S. first lightning strokes detected just south of the border near Kyogle, headed northeast.
Lets hope were not gettng a typical se qld no show weather event
Well ill be.
I have a devanti weather station.
When its predicting a storm the cloud display flashes.
My wife saw it flashing a while back and we got hail that day. I have never seen it flash.even with other storms
Until now. The cloud display is flashing indicating a storm
Looks like storms cells now starting just south of border around NW of Kyogle.
View of that cell west of Murwillumbah:
Murwillumbah airstrip weather cam