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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    SSTs quite warm in the Coral and absolutely baking in the Ningaloo off WA. Cold pool holding nicely at -1 in the central and western Pacific, especially with the big trade burst in the western Pac, but SSTs really dying off in the eastern Pacific, much like the models were forecasting. If we could get a good MJO the SSTs would be great for severe TCs.
     
  2. Rays74

    Rays74 One of Us

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    I remember that day very well.
    Hot and humid day.
    The ground was already very wet from the previous week's rain leading up to that event.

    I was a Toowoomba resident and still am.

    The rain was intense over the eastern parts of town and ranges.

    I was watching the radar all day.
    And when rain comes from the NE direction it is always moisture laden.

    I remember driving home from work along Kitchner street. The creek runs along it.
    People's cars were totally flooded.
    I saw people opening their car doors and water was pouring out from the insides.

    The city was so eerie and foggy afterwards.

    Everyone was bewildered and shocked.

    The video footage of cars and water tanks floating down the creek can't be described in words. Pure shock and awe.
     
  3. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    I was there thinking that there was an over reaction to the rainfall just before that wall of water. From memory it was something like 60mm in an hour. Serious rain, but nothing that doesn't happen a few times a year somewhere in SEQ. I remember also later in the event some gauges recording 80 and even 100mm in an hour just on wivenhoe dam on the morning as it became clear we were heading for a serious Brisbane river flood. I also remember similar falls in the Pine River catchment. There were ews warning, and I have family along the pine river - and I made a call to air my concerns based on what had happened at Granthams but nothing extra ordinary happened there (major flood yes, but not Grantham like). So I always wandered whether the extreme wall of water was a combination of the high rainfall and local geography or if there were even higher rainfall amounts involved that were not captured at any AWS.

    edit: maybe an important factor is how big an area the heavy rain hits. It was a pretty big storm on radar from memory.
     
  4. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    "Funny" you mention that @Adam Ant , one of my friends commented only yesterday that she remembers seeing your name on the WZ forums mentioning that as the situation was unfolding.

    One thing I will say though (and it also relates a bit to what Michael Hauber just said) is that I noticed ever since then, mainly within the following couple or so years, every time a big jump in water levels showed up somewhere in the realtime river/creek plots on the Bureau's website, everyone would suddenly flood online forums with posts containing those graphs and question why SEWS wasn't activated yet, why warnings hadn't been upgraded, etc. But in the majority of those times, the resulting flooding came nowhere near the levels experienced in the Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba that day. If every one of those posts was taken at face value and the SEWS activated as a result, the false alarm ratio would've become so high that it would've started breeding complacency among the public i.e. the boy who cried wolf syndrome. So that's where it's important to take into account the context behind such rises e.g. how saturated are catchments already, how big or small is the creek or river, has the heavy rain eased upstream or is it still going, what's the topography like, etc. Of course, all of that got lost in the outrage afterwards and it still is to a large extent. Some of that outrage is justified in my view though.

    But there's one thing that in my view should never ever be ignored under any circumstances - an eyewitness report, especially multiple independent eyewitness reports of a "wall of water" rushing downstream, extreme flooding starting to wash away houses, and the like. Ignoring that is unacceptable.

    As for the setup itself that day, there were a number of things that still stand out in my mind to this day which distinguish that setup from most others. The dangerous combo of forecast high CAPE (SB CAPE values were exceeding 1000j/kg in some areas) AND climatologically high PWATS values leading to embedded convection rather than just stratiform rain, classic backing winds with height signatures consistent with most heavy rain events in eastern Australia associated with strong warm air advection and upslide, being on the favourable side of the strong upper low, a very moist NE flow as opposed to SE'ly, that flow hitting the escarpment over many hours, the general topography, and one of the biggest factors of all - just how saturated the catchments already were.

    We often get at least some of those elements but it's not often that you get all of those factors coinciding to those types of magnitudes. But being such a rare event in the scale of a human lifetime in terms of that sheer magnitude, it's hard to draw only from past experience as to just how catastrophic it'll be because most forecasters would've never experienced that sort of thing before in their lifetime.

    For what it's worth, here's a post I made on another weather forum back on the 8th Jan that year:

    From: K.K...@bom.gov.au
    To: aust...@googlegroups.com
    Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2011 13:52:13 +1100
    Subject: [austpacwx] SE QLD extreme rain event [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

    An interesting potential extreme rainfall event is looming for us here in SE QLD/NE NSW over the next few days with this morning's PME suggesting total rainfall might exceed 300mm over the next 4 days (refer attachment).
    The cutoff low/trough causing the deluge is remarkably persistent (it drifted NNE through SE QLD up to the Wide Bay area, did a U-turn and is now drifting back towards us again) and so is the persistent strong onshore flow to its south that's blowing onto the coast here for days. This morning's visible satpics show a blow-up of convection just offshore from SE QLD. With high precipitable water amounts and backing winds with height, the potential impact on metropolitan areas is serious.


    But to be honest, I wasn't certain myself about whether the event would turn out to be an exceptionally catastrophic one, or a high-end one with very severe impacts (just not in the exceptional category).
     
  5. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    I very clearly remember that day after multiple floods in Dalby and in the grip of one of the peaks. We waded through it to our neighbour who had a generator to watch what happened in Toowoomba. There had been so much rain leading up to that event, wasn’t it something like 400mm in a week? I’m not sure on that but I’d been to Toowoomba several times leading up to that week and seemed every time we were driving through water somewhere. I remember the boys on weatherzone warning of a lot of water on the range several times that day and no one listening It was so very very sad and still I get teary thinking of that day and the lives lost. That bit of notice could have saved lives if only someone had listened. They mentioned on the news today advanced warning systems in Oakey, have they put any on the range??
     
  6. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    Heavy rain and the ews signal still gives me goosebumps now.
     
  7. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    I remember a summer like this was SE winds Yeppoon going in January wasn't last year may have been the year before. February was the warmest then mid March started dropping back.

    Dew point is 23 deg rel humidity is high but with the wind going isn't too bad. Overcast for a day that was supposedly "partly cloudy"

    Wonder when the next heavy rains are.

    BOM Meteye has disappearing slightly on Saturday 30 deg but 52 percent humidity dew point 19 deg (that's quite low for here) then SE winds back on Sunday !

    SE endless winds, guess can't complain.. natures air condioner.
     
  8. Adam Ant

    Adam Ant Addicted

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    Thanks for the link. Nice to see its been archived
     
  9. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    In 1893, a similar "inland tsunami" was reported as occurring through the Lockyer Valley region, although I forget the corresponding month/flood event. I would suggest it really is a 1 in 100 year event, just purely because of all the variables Ken mentioned have to occur.
     
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  10. Adam Ant

    Adam Ant Addicted

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    Thats the thing isn't it Ken. I don't think anyone was certain of what could happen. I am guilty of being angry at BOM at the time, perhaps just through my own frustration. Now I see it as a freak event that no one could have predicted and perhaps we are better prepared for it now.

    As much as I hate the term, a wall of water, in this case it is justified. Here is a link to the gauge at Helidon before it broke. https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/360/sudden-rise/3584690

    For anyone that has driven along the warrego hwy through Helidon, the creek went over that bridge. Can be seen on this video .
    Just incredible. This water then heads towards Grantham where it meets up with Sandy Creek. This creeks catchment had just had over 100mm in an hour on already flooding creeks. The perfect storm.

    Edit: Unfortunately the fella on who is sitting on his car with his family in this video was swept away by the flood waters and I believe his body was never found. The son and wife survived.
     
  11. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


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    [​IMG]

    Totally agree @Adam Ant , I hate the term wall of water too but like you said, I think there's probably some cases where it's more justified than others.

    Probably the two things that disturbed me the most was the footage of that family sitting on the roof of their car in floodwaters while they were waiting to be rescued (which didn't occur in the end) and also returning to the rest area at Helidon which I used to stop at all the time and seeing the houses along the tops of the (tall) banks along the creek gutted by floodwaters with the pink X's sprayed on their outside walls.
    It still blows my mind to this day. If you didn't know the area well and visited it on a normal day, you'd have no idea that floodwaters could rise so much that it would innundate the entire area right up to halfway up that sign. Unless you go to the creek itself, all you can see is vast expanses of flat fields all around you. You can't see any creeks or rivers. You'd think being in the middle of big expanses of paddocks and fields in that area would be the last place that you'd be in danger from extreme flooding.
    Above are some "before and after" shots I took in various spots in that area. I loved walking through the stands of hackberry trees (even though they're considered invasive here) for their bright autumn colours. Most of those trees on the lower parts of the banks were swept away or otherwise mangled and killed.
     
  12. Greg58

    Greg58 Hard Yards

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    Hi Lani,

    I believe that the Lockyer Valley Regional Council have installed a lot more flood gauges and rainfall alert stations along Lockyer Creek and the tributaries including Flagstone Creek, Sandy Creek, Ma Ma Creek and Tenthill Creek. If you go to the Lower Brisbane Page on this website http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60286.html
    and you can see which ones are owned by the council.

    I think most councils seem to have adopted a Disaster Dashboard on their web pages to provide more timely warning. Part of the LVRC Disaster Dashboard has links to live web cams https://www.lockyervalley.qld.gov.a...anagement/Pages/Flood-Monitoring-Cameras.aspx
    of flood prone spots so you can see for yourself what is happening.

    I think the Toowoomba Council have built a number of retention basins along East and West Creek to mitigate that initial surge of water through to Gowrie Creek.

    Greg
     
  13. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

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  14. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Hey can anyone explain the weird blob NE of Rainbow Beach on the Gympie Radar? I noticed it a few weeks ago but just guessed it was just a registration the radar was picking up but when I have clicked on 24hr rain total its coming up as have having heavy precipitation
    Screenshot_20210111-163235_Chrome.jpg Screenshot_20210111-163259_Chrome.jpg
     
  15. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    One day in Kingaroy during the 2011 floods it was raining constantly all day along with thunder and lightning. A couple of nights later it really came down with constant thunderstorms all night. What's the highest level ever recorded on the Brisbane River?
     
  16. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sea clutter:
     
  17. Artisan

    Artisan Hard Yards

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    Probably need to define a particular point along the river. I’d imagine comparing now to one hundred or so years ago would be problematic as there has been a lot of river dredging and a couple of dams added to the catchment.
     
  18. Rays74

    Rays74 One of Us

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    Good sunset across Toowoomba this afternoon

     
  19. Greg58

    Greg58 Hard Yards

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  20. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Michael yes from a catchment flood volume perspective size of the heavy precipitation area makes a big difference. For example 50mm / hr for an hour is common at many point gauges representing rain in a square metre or less, but less common when 50 mm in an hour over hundreds or thousands of square kilometres of flood source catchment. Areal scale in rainfall and position relative to catchments make a big difference in flood outcomes.
     
  21. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Awesome thanks Mega...heading up there on Thurs for a week my brother said it was showery but not as much as the radar was showing!
     
  22. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    This is true, but it also depends on how you define it as an event. If you go by its impacts on people and infrastructure, it's hard to say what's an event and what's not because different areas have vastly different populations and infrastructure as well as how they're situated with respect to the flooding. So the impacts vary a lot with region. The same extent of floodwater inundation that occurred in Jan 2011 might be common in some remote lands of the tropics somewhere but many people wouldn't regard it as an event like Jan 2011 because its impacts on people and houses would be minimal.
    If you go by river heights or the extent of inundation, that too is complicated by the fact that different areas have different topography, drainage patterns, setups so that also makes it hard to say what's an event and what's not, and how common or uncommon it is.

    And naturally, the bigger you make an area (or the greater the distance you allow from a certain point), the more common a particular type of event will be through sheer odds. A temperature of say 41C is uncommon for Brisbane but if you expand that area to include all of inland SEQ or Australia, it's very common in the summer months.
     
  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Impressive 96hr totals too (up to 9am today) along parts of the Central Coast among other areas. 96hr accumulations map above courtesy of the Early Warning Network. Some of the higher totals in that timeframe:
    511mm - Proserpine Alert
    499mm - Upper Finch Hatton
    491mm - Paget Alert
    453mm - Mt William
    420mm - Clarke Range2 Alert
    402mm - Preston Alert
     
  24. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    100 mm per day for four days, which are 96 hour totals of 400 mm sure are solid rain amounts.
    Granted that is more common closer to the tropics.
     
  25. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Retention basins may help;But it won't be enough.
    I know after the 74 floods they did a lot of flood mitigation from Helidon through to Laidley & down toward the city from what I remember. But that wasn't enough for what happened in Helidon.
    I vividly remember that day, sitting on WZ; watching in disbelief while one of my old teenage hang outs, The Helidon pub was engulfed in water, that made it more than real. The small towns we raised hell in, the friends & acquaintances; some gone, many changed forever.
    Growing up in the Lockyer, swimming in creeks & waterholes, it was easy to notice a lot of the sections are extremely deep V shaped gouges in the earth; very steep banks & often very narrow sections. As soon as a mention of "wall of water"was made, I knew this wasn't going to be good. Wall of water meets V Shape? I knew who'd win.
    So while retention basins sound like a good plan ; I'd like to think they have widened a few of those narrow sections as well.
    But then as my first sentence says, doesn't matter how well you plan & mitigate, it's never enough for the next 'big one'.
     
  26. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Them Toowoomba floods were epic, I was not there but the reports etc were overwhelming enough.
    Think it was that flood they had a major 'Volenteer Help' program, online registeration to assist with the clean-up,, ?
    I put my name down, with car, trailor and chainsaw but was not called apon ? Just wanted to help in any way.
    People by the thousands made a major impact, good stuff !
    -----------------------
    ----------
    Looks like the current SA trough may enter our eastern coasts this week-end, will ultimately disturb the vast far-reaching easterlies currently. Some good Instability amongst it by models,,
    Here stormy stormy :whistle:

    Could have its own Thread as action appears to ramp up around Nsw central coasts on Thurs & moves up the coast over next day or so and predicted to reach upto SE Qld for a couple days - hope it makes it up here and not another trough that breaks in half like many seem to do ?
    Something to keep n eye on & am sure all here are aware of it anyway ,,,
     
  27. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, I can’t remember if Toowoomba was included in the same scheme but those 2011 floods was when the nickname of the Mud Army for the people who helped with the cleanup was born.
     
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  28. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ahh, The Mud Army,, sounds cool.
    I remember two events back then (prob a year apart or so ?) where volenteers 'mud-army' were called apon, one was in the Lockier Valley, the other may have been Brizz.
     
  29. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Slightly cool in the morning while the temperature generally rose, then after reaching the maximum temperature in the late morning the temperature fell a little became cool in the early afternoon and was generally stable until the mid afternoon. Near average temperature early tonight returned to near average later tonight. Near average dew point in the morning became slightly below average in the late morning while the dew point fell slowly, was generally stable in the afternoon before rising slightly in early tonight while remaining close to average. The dew point became stable before falling slightly late tonight.

    Relative humidity was near average during the day, which was generally stable from the late morning to the late afternoon before rising tonight but have been mostly slightly below average. Wind have been light E to SE in the morning, E to ESE from the late morning, E to SE early tonight before veering during tonight to S to SW before calm winds later tonight.

    Last 24 hours:
     
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  30. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    It depends on which point along the Brisbane River you mean.
     
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  31. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Maybe you're thinking of the same flood event that spanned those several days @PlumbBob ?
    i.e. the Lockyer Valley/Toowoomba floods on the 10th Jan 2011 and the subsequent downstream flooding of the Brisbane River during the next few days. I can't remember if they also helped out in some subsequent floods within the following few months or years (I have a feeling they may have) but those Jan 2011 floods was the event they're best known for.
     
  32. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    In reference to the volunteering after the floods a girlfriend lived in New Farm and under her place was inundated so we went down to help her clean out and ended up helping other elderly people in the street. The council had tray back trucks and people carried out and left their flood damaged stuff on the footpath and then we threw all the items into the trucks. Some jerks were throwing out perfectly clean and dry clothes and furniture to claim on insurance! I was so angry. So I asked the council guys if we could take them and we folded two packed full car loads of clothes and took it out to the Golf Club near Carindale as they were a collection point for items to be donated to people who had lost everything. The mud was unbelievable but the camaraderie was high. It was an awesome day with so many young people that came out to help. It also really showed the best and worst of human nature...couldn't help but notice the wealthy Queenslanders who had been built in underneath were the ones who were committing the insurance fraud.
     
  33. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Port Office near Petrie Bight in the City is the standard flood height measurement for Brisbane.
     
  34. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    12 JANUARY 2021
    TIME....0740
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.3C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........73%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
    CURRENT WIND........SSW 11Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1015.8HpA
    CURRENT CLOUD....1/8 Cu, 1/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...Trace
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........28.9C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........16.0C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-3.55C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....14.2C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......18C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1015.4Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....E 34Kph at 1103
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Slight drizzle early Monday afternoon, no rain recorded.
    ...............................................
    JANUARY RAINFALL TO DATE...................25.2mm
    JANUARY AVERAGE RAINFALL..................154.0mm
    2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................25.2mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC 2021...1152.4mm
     
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  35. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 12 Jan 2021
    Time: 7:45 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.6 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.8 C
    Min Ground Temp: 13.2 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 23.2 C
    Relative Humidity: 72 %
    Dew Point: 17.9 C
    MSL Pressure: 1015.6 hPa
    Wind Speed: 8 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: S

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 2/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 11/1/21: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds and some Ci and Cc clouds in the afternoon. Near average temperature from early, which was rather variable in the early hours. The temperature became slightly cool in the morning while the temperature generally rose, then after reaching the maximum temperature in the late morning the temperature fell a little and became cool in the afternoon and was generally stable until the mid afternoon. Slightly cool temperature in the late afternoon became near average in the evening. Dew point was stable and slightly below average in the early hours, rose a little in the early morning. Near average dew point in the morning became slightly below average in the late morning while the dew point fell slowly, was generally stable in the afternoon before rising slightly in early evening while remaining close to average. The dew point became stable before falling slightly late in the evening. Relative humidity was slightly below average in the early hours and became moderately low in the morning before easing back to near average from the late morning, which was generally stable from the late morning to the late afternoon before rising in the evening was mostly slightly below average. Light S to SW in the first hour of the day became S to SSW before winds backed during the morning to S to SE and to E to SE later in the morning, E to SE early in the evening before veering during the evening to S to SW before calm winds late in the evening.

    Today: Slightly cool from early in the day, with the temperature falling quite steadily in the early hours before returning to near average this morning as the temperature rising quickly this morning. Dew point is remaining slightly below average that fell slowly in the early hours, and then have started to rise this morning. Relative humidity was slightly below average while steadily rising before becoming moderately low this morning while falling a little quickly. Calm winds early became S to SW this morning.
     
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  36. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Both the multiweek EC ensemble and ACCESS-S are still hinting at a somewhat elevated potential (moreso than the past few months) of tropical disturbance formation developing in the Coral Sea later this month or early next month. EC maps courtesy of the ECMWF.

    The probabilities are only modest at the moment and nowhere near as high as those over waters off northwest Australia at shorter ranges although you'd have to factor in the natural dampening down of probabilities and increased spread in the ensemble members at this kind of longer range.

    The MJO forecasts I've seen so far currently don't have a strong MJO pulse in Australian longitudes around that time.

    My take from the above forecasts is not an "OMG a cyclone's going to hit area X" but rather, a somewhat elevated chance of tropical low OR cyclone formation in the Coral Sea later this month/early next month among the current general TC season. Whether any system that does develop moves towards the coast and hits it, or remains far offshore and gets steered away into the graveyard remains to be seen.
     
    #14186 Ken Kato, Jan 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2021
  37. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As for the next week to 9-day period, it appears the Tasman Sea has forgotten which season we're supposed to be in...
     
  38. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    Speaking of Tassie, just got back from a 10 day holiday. Bloody roasting it was, don't know why I bothered to take any warm gear...the fly fishing, as always, was superb.

    And then I get back here. Had to break out the slasher to get to the gauge. 31mm....not bad.
     
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  39. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Multi model WATL is getting keen for later this week.
    Some follow up rain keeping the soil moisture up would be fantastic.
    Far north OZ still getting plenty.
     
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  40. PeteJ

    PeteJ One of Us

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    So, just another typical cyclone season coming up. Of course, it is still only early to mid January. Seems the Coral Sea is cooling closer to the coast and the very warm areas are further out now. SAM is forecast to go neutral or slightly negative in about a week, then hopefully swinging back positive. Massive southern lows and upper troughs lurching up from the southern Tasman. So maybe late Feb to early March we may get a wet summer pattern or will it be the same? Tune in later for more cheery weather news.
     
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  41. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Very sad looking chart apart from the far north.
    I'm tired of waiting. Feb and Mar are gonna have to bring something special to make up for this lame season, and even then, it shouldn't come down to relying on 8 weeks of the whole year for significant rain in the first place.
     
  42. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    Thank you for reply. I did know that, but Stumer 1 asked for the highest flood level on the Brisbane River, not necessarily for the highest flood level of the Brisbane River at Brisbane, and his post mentioned Kingaroy, so it's quite possible that he was asking about the Brisbane River upstream of where Wivenhoe Dam now is.
     
  43. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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  44. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    I get the feeling I am missing something???? Is it just me?

     
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  45. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    Nice Pic. Looks Like Lake Arragan, part of Yuraygir National Park. The lake is typically cut off from the sea due to build up of sand across its mouth. However when I was there a couple of weeks ago, the sea had broken through and the usually tannin stained water was replaced with ultra clear blue seawater. Was quite the sight to behold. arragan 1.jpg arragan2.jpg
     
  46. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Hmm not sure why it doesn't show up for you. If you have a facebook account, it should show up but it can take a few moments for the image to load. Here's what the post looks like:

     
  47. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    The Quidge must be back. What's happened with thunderstorms, just non-existent
     
  48. Reductive

    Reductive Early Days

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    If you have browser extensions that block facebook, that's likely the reason.
    I disallow all FB traffic via a pihole, so miss out on all the community pics people post during storms. But on the plus side, we have a good gaggle of photographers on the forum in eddy, gleno, chunky, et al...so us paranoiacs don't miss out completely!
     
  49. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think Stumer's post was about Kingaroy because it is in the Burnett River catchment.
    Anyway in relation to upstream Brisbane River, the Caboonbah homestead was one of the upper Brisbane River flood warning sites that was used for the old flood warning system going back well over a century (before Wivenhoe Dam was built).
    The first 1893 flood was around 22m above normal river level at Caboonbah. There have been several floods around 15 to 17 metres at that site including 1898 (two floods that year), 1908, 1931, 1955, and 1974.
    The 1890 flood got to just under 21m.
     
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  50. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wivenhoe Dam is currently just under 38%. It needs another approx 600,000 ML to bring it up to the current temporary 90% full level.
    The catchment above Wivenhoe (excluding Somerset) is not yet wet enough to produce decent flows, though last weeks rain did bring a small fresh (old hydrology term) down the river at Linville which barely registered at Gregors Creek gauge.
    Below is the Bureau's seasonal streamflow forecast for Gregor's Creek which was updated a few days ago. Note Gregor's Creek gauge is not the entire catchment for Wivenhoe.
    That seasonal streamflow forecast does not bode well for a good top up this season - but there is a lot of uncertainty in these seasonal streamflow forecasts (actually more uncertainty than season rainfall outlooks).
    The optimistic side is that it only takes one big event for decent flows to occur - the thing is though that big events are NOT readily seen in the horizon of a seasonal outlook.
    There is a big difference in the amount of runoff that occurs from 200mm in two days, compared to 200mm spread in little rain amounts over a month or two.

    Meanwhile there is some consideration about restarting the western corridor recycled water scheme (drought response measure).
    See here: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/po...ed-water-scheme-recycled-20201208-p56loi.html
    This seasons remaining rainfall, and more specifically whatever catchment flows occur from it will be a big deciding factor for the recycled water. But even if recommissioning goes ahead it will be around two years before it kicks in.
    Desalination at the Gold Coast plant is already running and has been for a few months now.
     
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