1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

Tags:
  1. Multiversity

    Multiversity One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2019
    Messages:
    508
    Likes Received:
    2,611
    KK: Just what is happening with the MJO? Has it had any influence on our weather / monsoon this summer? Is it losing its influence in our neck of the woods?

    "The MJO forecasts I've seen so far currently don't have a strong MJO pulse in Australian longitudes around that time"


     
    BrettSS, DDstorm, Seabreezes and 3 others like this.
  2. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    Yes, it's active and inactive phases have affected northern Australia rainfall/the monsoon but SE QLD/NE NSW doesn't usually tend to get affected much by the MJO.

    For weekly MJO updates, I'd recommend following this: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

    Forecast MJO products such as phase diagrams, spatial maps, time-longitude diagrams, etc are produced by many of the models.
     
  3. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    1,858
    Likes Received:
    9,210
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    Anyone else notice the size of the slow-moving LWT between AUS & NZ next week? Ridiculous. It passes our longitudes as being relatively flat and then suddenly explodes once it hits the Tasman Sea. Here it is in a fully-amplified state over NZ next Tuesday:

     
  4. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    8,339
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Yes Mega I have noticed the LWT occasionally favourable for our longitude for a brief period and this has maybe happened a few times recently but not for long. But each time longitude appears promising it then appears that the “contours” appear flattened with les reach to our latitudes which I assume means less influence for our suboptimal latitude. But honestly I don’t know much about latitude extents of LWT and if you asked me to draw a latitude influence line with my limited knowledge then that line would be around a thousand miles or more wide.
     
    PlumbBob, Ken Kato, Tsunami and 6 others like this.
  5. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    8,339
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    I assume or guess whatever one may call it that the rough red zone on the same LWT chart below is aligned to the possible rain early next week that is indicated on model forecasts.
    My guess is somewhat guided by the forecast brief Quidge repression Sunday- Monday giving us the dregs of the opportunity and not much else. And that red area is probably oversized as well.

     
    #14205 Flowin, Jan 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2021
    PlumbBob, Ken Kato, Tsunami and 6 others like this.
  6. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    1,364
    Likes Received:
    6,501
    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Near average temperature in the morning became slightly cool in the late morning as the temperature stabilised from later in the morning. The temperature was slightly cool in the afternoon and cool in the mid afternoon with the temperature generally falling slowly in the afternoon. Near average temperature from early tonight before becoming slightly cool later tonight. Dew point became near average in the morning after rising until the mid morning, then fell slowly from the late morning and became generally stable in the afternoon and was mostly slightly below average. Early tonight the dew point was stable and near average before falling slowly later tonight slightly below average.

    Relative humidity eased from moderately low early in the morning to near average later in the morning and in the afternoon as the relative humidity stopped falling quickly from the mid morning. After slightly below average relative humidity tonight the relative humidity have returned to near average during the rest of tonight. Light S to SW winds tended SSE to E from the mid morning was E to ESE in the afternoon, E to NE from the mid afternoon and then SE to NE early tonight before calm winds during the rest of tonight.

    Last 24 hours:
     
    whether, PlumbBob, Flowin and 5 others like this.
  7. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    2,676
    Location:
    Gold Coast, Bonogin
    This stale weather is back again. Bright lit skies and a mixture between dry and humid, without sunscreen you'll know about it.
     
    PlumbBob, Flowin, Tsunami and 4 others like this.
  8. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    887
    Likes Received:
    5,167
    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    13 JANUARY 2021
    TIME....0725
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.9C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........75%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......20C
    CURRENT WIND........SE 3Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1015.5HpA
    CURRENT CLOUD....1/8 Cu, 1/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 TUESDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........30.4C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.2C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-1.70C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....17.4C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1014.9Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 27Kph at 1104
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.
    ...............................................
    JANUARY RAINFALL TO DATE...................25.2mm
    JANUARY AVERAGE RAINFALL..................154.0mm
    2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................25.2mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC 2021...1152.4mm
     
    DDstorm, Seabreezes, whether and 6 others like this.
  9. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    1,364
    Likes Received:
    6,501
    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 13 Jan 2021
    Time: 7:45 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.8 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 15 C

    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
    Temperature: 24.8 C
    Relative Humidity: 72 %
    Dew Point: 19.4 C
    MSL Pressure: 1015.5 hPa
    Wind Speed: 7 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SE

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 1/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 12/1/21: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. Slightly cool from early in the day, returned to near average and in the morning before becoming slightly cool from the late morning as the temperature became stable from later in the morning. The temperature was temporarily cool in the mid afternoon while the temperature fell later in the afternoon before returning to near average in the early evening that became slightly cool in the late evening. Dew point was slightly below average that fell slowly in the early hours, became near average in the morning after rising until the mid morning, then fell slowly from the late morning and became generally stable in the afternoon and was mostly slightly below average. In the early evening the dew point was stable and near average before falling slowly later in the evening slightly below average. Slightly below average relative humidity early in the day, then became moderately low in the morning, eased to near average later in the morning and in the afternoon. After slightly below average relative humidity in the evening the relative humidity returned to near average during the rest of the evening. Calm winds early became S to SW in the morning, tended SSE to E from the mid morning, was E to ESE in the afternoon, E to NE from the mid afternoon and then SE to NE early in the evening before calm winds during the rest of the evening.

    Today: Slightly cool early in the day before returning to near average later in the early hours with the temperature stable during the early hours, since started to rise from 4am and more quickly this morning, with the temperature remaining near average this morning. Stable dew point was slightly below average in the early hours, which rose from later in the early hours and became slightly above average. Relative humidity was near average in the early hours, became slightly below average and to moderately low in the past hour as the relative humidity falls since the early morning. Calm winds early that became S to SW in the early morning, backing to S to SE in the past hour.
     
    Greg58, DDstorm, Seabreezes and 6 others like this.
  10. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2019
    Messages:
    776
    Likes Received:
    3,948
    Location:
    Mount Hallen
    Dont mind the clear weather, keeps the solar panels generating & pool warm. As long as it rains sometimes, wash the solar panels and top up the pool. LOL
     
  11. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Messages:
    348
    Likes Received:
    1,980
    The ideal combination for that purpose would be sunshine in the daytime and rain at night.
     
  12. Big T

    Big T One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2019
    Messages:
    157
    Likes Received:
    985
    Location:
    Albany Creek
    or warm clear days , and twice a week 4-5pm arvo storms dumping 35mm over 45 mins or so before moving offshore and offering up a good light show.
     
    Ken Kato, DDstorm, Seabreezes and 8 others like this.
  13. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2020
    Messages:
    120
    Likes Received:
    646
    Another overcast day but absolutely no precipitation. They are hinting at minor stuff next Monday, bit nothing substantial. Half way through summer in a La Nina and it has been pathetic.
     
  14. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2019
    Messages:
    497
    Likes Received:
    2,126
    88/89 summer was dry but then La Nina hit hard in autumn.
     
    Ken Kato, Gleno71, Seabreezes and 7 others like this.
  15. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Messages:
    348
    Likes Received:
    1,980
    Yes, particularly in April. Also, the 1998/1999 La Nina wasn't particularly wet until February.
     
  16. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    1,858
    Likes Received:
    9,210
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    The way I look at it is as the LWT passes across our longitudes, it enhances the probability of thunderstorms through our area if other factors are right (example, storm potential starting to creep in this weekend). But then once the LWT passes further east into the Tasman Sea, we tend to be left with westerlies across the Tasman Sea for a period, leaving weak high pressure to the north. This is the part I don't particularly like because this is not ideal if you're hanging out for a big rain event. You might get a few storms but it's inconducive for a big rain event.
     
    Ken Kato, Gleno71, Seabreezes and 6 others like this.
  17. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    8,339
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Thanks Mega that is helpful. So I got the timing wrong ? and should have put that red sketch on the GFS LWT chart for a few days earlier when the LWT axis in our our longitude (only for a brief time), and albeit the Isobars are somewhat flattened not extending up so far to our latitude. (I assume the correct term for the contours on the LWT chart is isobars, if not I am happy to be corrected).
     
  18. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    1,858
    Likes Received:
    9,210
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    Not necessarily. For the LWT, you always want to be on its eastern side, and not too far behind it. So a few days earlier as you say would be better. But the circle on your chart in fact seems to show a SWT poking up through QLD which may or may not have been left behind by the LWT. Sometimes what can actually happen is these troughs can lag behind or split off from the LWT and even get caught above a building ridge below it (see last night's GFS run, classic example). In this case though, the leftover SWT looks reasonably weak/flat, plus it's too far inland, which has pretty much been the story for the past couple of months apart from that fluke GC/NE NSW event.
     
  19. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    333
    Likes Received:
    2,537
    Location:
    South West Rocks, NSW
    I've noticed the Highs producing those regular ridges across the Wide Bay / Capricornia region are often sitting about northern parts of the NZ's North Island or just above the North Island, or if the High is further east of the North Island, the same ridge extends across the far north of the island over to the Wide Bay / Capricornia region
    It would probably come as no surprise the Northland region of NZ is continuing to experience drought:
    Northland drought: Harsher water restrictions imposed on Kaitaia

    It would be interesting if there was a correlation between low rainfall in both NZ's Northland region and QLD's Wide Bay / Capricornia region.
     
  20. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    1,364
    Likes Received:
    6,501
    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Temperature was near average in the morning and afternoon. From the mid morning the he temperature rose more slowly and was variable until the mid afternoon. Tonight the temperature have been near average while falling a little slowly. Dew point generally fell slowly in the morning and early afternoon slightly below average, rose slowly a little in the afternoon easing to near average and became stable tonight.

    Moderately low relative humidity became slightly below average later in the morning as the relative humidity stopped falling quickly becoming near average or slightly below average from the late morning. Tonight the relative humidity have been slightly below average while rising a little slowly. Light S to SE winds became E to SE from the mid morning, ESE to ENE in the afternoon , E to SE tonight with some SSE winds and calm winds at times.

    Last 24 hours:
     
    DDstorm, whether, BrettSS and 4 others like this.
  21. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    8,339
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    EC thunderstorm composite map for Sat....Based on the deterministic Hi Res EC - seems to indicate good initiation potential around Scenic Rim.
    Animation is 10am to 10pm
    The EC ensemble average appears to have better CAPE for Sunshine Coast, but still around 400 or more J/kg for Scenic Rim.
    I note the BoM text forecast (for my location) says "possibly severe"

     
    Seabreezes, DDstorm, Ken Kato and 8 others like this.
  22. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    286
    Likes Received:
    1,300
    Location:
    Yeppoon Queensland
    This is absolutely shocking if accurate for Rockhampton, Yeppoon has had about 41.6mm this month Rockhampton only 5.2mm !

    Then again last 3 days of month it rains ? Who knows . Maybe February or March will be so wet it will make up for the shortfall.

     
    Seabreezes, DDstorm, BrettSS and 6 others like this.
  23. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,417
    Likes Received:
    8,339
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Additional perspective to my previous post for Saturday potential storms.
    From a multi-model consideration, MetEye chance of rain for Saturday also appears to favour Scenic Rim - Lockyer Valley, and Sunshine Coast hinterland.

     
    DDstorm, Ken Kato, BrettSS and 5 others like this.
  24. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2020
    Messages:
    169
    Likes Received:
    659
    Location:
    Rockhampton
    I think this is just the new norm now. We just have to learn how to live with it or move like I’ve done. I pity the agricultural sector though in Capricornia. Rocky was once the beef capital of Qld. But you can’t grow cattle without any grass. And as we’ve seen the rainfall has just about disappeared from the area between Maryborough & St Lawrence, and climate influences like this dreadful La Niña has just made it even worse. Sadly I think you’ll have to wait quit a long time to see any rain at Yeppoon vinny. Good luck
     
    #14224 Rainbow Serpant, Jan 14, 2021 at 8:36 AM
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021 at 9:41 AM
  25. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    887
    Likes Received:
    5,167
    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    14 JANUARY 2021
    TIME....0740
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.4C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........76%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......21C
    CURRENT WIND.......ESE 4Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1013.9HpA
    CURRENT CLOUD.... 1/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........31.4C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........18.6C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-1.00C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....18.0C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......20C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1014.4Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....SE 31Kph at 1731
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.
    ...............................................
    JANUARY RAINFALL TO DATE...................25.2mm
    JANUARY AVERAGE RAINFALL..................154.0mm
    2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................25.2mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC 2021...1152.4mm
     
    Seabreezes, DDstorm, Flowin and 3 others like this.
  26. Artisan

    Artisan Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2020
    Messages:
    274
    Likes Received:
    145
    Location:
    North West of Brisbane
    A Trove search shows drought as being situation normal for the Rockhampton hinterland...
    https://trove.nla.gov.au/search/adv...ought&date.from=1801-01-01&date.to=1939-01-01
     
    Retired Weather Man likes this.
  27. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2020
    Messages:
    169
    Likes Received:
    659
    Location:
    Rockhampton
  28. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    1,364
    Likes Received:
    6,501
    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 14 Jan 2021
    Time: 8:50 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.2 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 18.3 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 27.9 C
    Relative Humidity: 62 %
    Dew Point: 19.9 C
    MSL Pressure: 1013.5 hPa
    Wind Speed: 4 kph - light air
    Wind Direction: E

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 3/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 13/1/21: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc and some Ac clouds in the afternoon. Slightly cool early in the day, then easing to near average from later in the early hours while the temperature was stable during the early hours. From the mid morning the temperature rose more slowly and was variable until the mid afternoon. In the evening the temperature fell slowly while remaining close to average. Slightly below average and stable dew point in the early hours, which rose from later in the early hours, then generally fell slowly in the morning and early afternoon slightly below average, rose slowly in the afternoon before easing to near average and became stable in the evening. Near average relative humidity early became slightly below average to moderately low in the morning, easing to slightly below average later in the morning as the relative humidity stopped falling quickly becoming near average or slightly below average from the late morning. In the evening the relative humidity was slightly below average while rising a little slowly. Calm winds early that became S to SW in the early hour,, backing to S to SE in the morning, E to SE from the mid morning, ESE to ENE in the afternoon, E to SE in the evening with some SSE winds and calm winds at times.

    Today: Temperature have been near average or slightly warm that was stable or fell slowly in the early hour before rising this morning. Dew point have been near average which was stable in the early hours and rose slightly this morning. Relative humidity have been slightly below average in the early hours and early this morning while rising rather slowly in the early hours, before becoming moderately low this morning. Light S to SW winds with some SSE winds and calm winds at times in the early hours, light S to SW winds early this morning before light NNE to ESE winds this morning.
     
  29. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    286
    Likes Received:
    1,300
    Location:
    Yeppoon Queensland
    Not sure what it has been like in SE Qld but summer so far December and January has not felt anywhere near as bad with heat as last year. I think we had the air con on much more . A lot of days of SE winds and perhaps more cloud this summer so far. Any extreme heat humidity we have had here in Yeppoon has only been for a week or less.

    As much as the weather is boring with these SE winds, it's keeping the weather bearable.

    I was just looking at the Meteye and the SE winds finally go tomorrow afternoon replaced with ENE winds into Saturday, Sunday ENE to E winds, Monday E winds, Tuesday onwards back to ESE winds again !

    I think for it to get uncomfortable with humidity and heat we need NE or N winds .

    Hopefully we get something before the month is up and Feb and March aren't failures.

    Why is it since 2017 we haven't even seen an ex tropical low come past this way ? I vaguely remember something last year around late February early March but it didn't come past us . I do remember after the first week of March last year was like all the heat and humidity was sucked out of the atmosphere after we got 300mm in a week. The wet season pretty much was over after that.. we did get little bits of rain each month after that but nothing huge.
     
  30. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    1,858
    Likes Received:
    9,210
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    I can't say I've ever thought the correlation between our rainfall and the north island of NZ before but you could well be onto something there SB. It's very possible that it's just one piece of the puzzle since I too have mentioned time and time again that our highs keep wanting to sit further north than I would ideally like (they come across the Bight then suddenly end up sitting over the northern Tasman Sea). In fact, if you look at GFS for the next 9 days it shows exactly that, and this seems to have become a fairly regular pattern especially during our supposed stormy spring months.

    Though on the other side of the coin, even during times when we have had the STR remain further south, there still hasn't been anything other than SE winds tending E along with a few showers up the coast. And don't get me wrong, that is better than the nothing of the first pattern, but it says to me that something must still be off. STR retreats further south and low pressure is supposed to filter down through the interior of AUS - well that's been happening, but why is none of that filtering down through our region?

    Or maybe it's just that we live in a very unlucky part of the state to have to rely on regular rainfall - we saw areas up around CQ/NQ get some really good rain last week from a weakening tropical low which then combined with a SE'ly convergence from the high just gone. That's fairly normal for them at this time of year. We've seen severe storms and floods across NSW in recent months. We've seen well above average rainfall through much of the tropical interior from QLD to WA in December. But here in southern CQ and even SEQ to a degree, we've somehow managed to escape nearly all of it. It really makes you wonder...

    PS here's a chart showing what you describe SB:

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Big T

    Big T One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2019
    Messages:
    157
    Likes Received:
    985
    Location:
    Albany Creek
    norfolk island i blame , that joint is a ridge magnet in summer.
     
  32. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    438
    Likes Received:
    2,325
    Location:
    Cleveland SE QLD
    Saturday. Forcast for afternoon storms, maine for late afternoon or night storms yet forcast southerly due lunchtime....confused As i mostly think storms come with the southerly change

    Goid to see an upgrade for monday however
     
  33. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    @Tsunami this is where it pays to be careful to avoid using the blanket assumption that all southerly changes shut down storm potential completely behind them.
    With some changes, the air just behind them mixes with the warm moist unstable air ahead of them (and also in the layer just above it) especially once the post-change flow travels further inland and therefore isn't completely stable. This results in storms forming along or even behind the change rather than all of them being ahead of it.

    This is especially the case with weak changes like the one due Saturday which is forecast to slow down once it reaches SEQ and then slowly wash out. Some instability can also remain aloft above the low level change from which convection can develop.
    Also, if there's a decent westerly steering flow aloft, some storms a bit inland can be dragged into the somewhat more unfavourable capped areas closer towards parts of the coast and start eroding the change-induced cap.

    As a general rule of thumb in this type of setup, it's often a case of "somewhat lower storm potential compared to western and northern parts of SEQ but if storms do get close to the coast, they can become severe".

    The type of change that does shut down all storm potential are usually strong ones that invade a deep slab of the lower atmosphere, especially if they sweep through in the morning.
     
  34. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    438
    Likes Received:
    2,325
    Location:
    Cleveland SE QLD
    Thanks ken. I note marine forcast for point danger say a sharp change. ............not real shore of wgat a sharp change is....maybe a quick turn from north to south
    ....North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning. A sharp southeasterly change, 15 to 20 knots, will enter the area from the south around the middle of the day and push towards the north during the afternoon.
     
  35. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    Yeah the leading edge will probably be more well-defined over water than land, like many changes are. But the post-change winds aren't really that strong in the general scheme of things as far as changes go, especially over land,
     
  36. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2019
    Messages:
    251
    Likes Received:
    1,743
    Storms building on the hills behind town this arvo:

     
  37. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    The one thing I do notice is when the high's near NZ's North Island, it often keeps extending the extremely stubborn ridge all the way back across the northern Tasman to the WBB/Capricornia and prevents deep troughiness from establishing itself nearby. It's like those highs go to extraordinary lengths to keep ridging along the coast at all costs no matter how far away they go. Then it's quickly replaced by ridging from the next high without much of a break in between. Go a bit further south and winds quickly turn more northerly with lower pressures.
     
  38. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    They're normally referred to as 500hpa height contours rather than isobars @Flowin
    Isobars connect points of equal atmospheric pressure whereas all the pressures on a 500hpa height chart are 500hpa everywhere (these charts show the heights at which the pressure's 500hpa's, not the pressures themselves).
     
  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    1,858
    Likes Received:
    9,210
    Location:
    Maryborough, QLD
    Yep, and like clockwork, EC 10-day while subject to change shows this exact pattern continuing - heaps of deep low pressure through the interior, quidge along the east coast from a weak high sitting over the northern Tasman. It's quite surreal.
     
  40. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    5,384
    Location:
    Gold Coast, Queensland
    to be honest im more focused on monday compared to saturday, which the models have mellowed down from a few days ago. GFS is very keen for a severe outbreak in Northern NSW on monday, EC not so much.
     
  41. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2019
    Messages:
    497
    Likes Received:
    2,126
    Maybe so much fresh water got dumped into the ocean during the 2010/2011 La Nina that it disrupted ocean currents which has thrown our rainfall patterns out of whack.
     
  42. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2020
    Messages:
    120
    Likes Received:
    646
    Yea it looked like we might have got a chance of showers a couple of days next week. Then today it was gone faster then an apple pie surrounded by fat kids.
     
  43. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    2,676
    Location:
    Gold Coast, Bonogin
    Some of you may have experienced the hotter temperatures for the last few days out in the GC hinterland/ Tallai. We've been tiling the surrounds of a pool deck in full sun, hardly a breath of wind underneath a portable umbrella for shade. Without the umbrella, you can imagine how extreme the heat and light bounces off the concrete, from 9am to 3pm it's pretty intense that you could fry an egg on the deck! What puzzles me though, after 4pm the temperature cools down to a mild winters day with a cool breeze. What causes this and is that the reason why the afternoon storms can not build. Is it the sea breeze that's killing the activity? I know the sun starts going down around that time and the heat is starting to die off, but if it's a hot summers day, shouldn't the heat hang around into the evening? Just like now, it's quite a pleasant temperature out here in the hinterland.
     
  44. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    It's usually because the afternoon seabreeze is often quite well-established over the coastal parts by 4pm. That seabreeze also often features somewhat higher wind speeds than the lighter winds in the morning so that adds to the sensation of feeling cooler. The seabreeze makes a big difference to max temps in coastal locations of SEQ such as Brisbane and the GC.

    Further inland where the seabreeze comes in late or even not at all, it's typical to have max temps reached later in the afternoon. It's pretty noticeable if you've ever been in inland areas where it's common to remain very hot until much later into the afternoon compared to here.

    The seabreeze can suppress storms in coastal fringe areas where it's well-established but if steering winds aloft are strong enough from a westerly direction, storms can sometimes still be dragged into the seabreezed areas and erode the capping caused by the seabreeze. The leading edge of the seabreeze (seabreeze front) can also cause any storms that run into it to suddenly intensify as they interact with it, as well as ingest the moister air near the coast. This typically happens a touch inland of the coast but depends on where the seabreeze front has penetrated to at the time.
    But if the steering winds aloft aren't strong enough or the seabreeze has penetrated well inland, the chances of storms reaching the coast are lower unless they can form in-situ along the coast itself or be steered ashore. The latter usually only happens when there's a deep onshore flow.
     
  45. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    2,676
    Location:
    Gold Coast, Bonogin
    Thanks Ken for that write-up. That's some really great information, I don't think I could of found the answer anywhere apart from this forum, I'm learning about weather knowledge everyday by everyone's posts, much appreciated by you all.
    I've been as far inland as Millmerran during winter though and it gets quite cold. I know what the temps can reach out there on a hot summers day, though looking at the temperature there now, it's very similar to the coast. The information you posted, does that also apply that far inland?

    Albury on the other hand, I've been there in the summer. I work up at Falls Creek Victoria for the winter and we were in Albury most of the day up until 6pm and the temperature was still 45 degrees at that time, whereas Falls was a pleasant 16. Obviously being high in altitude makes a considerable difference in temperature. Being that far inland in Albury in summer, it takes a long time to cool down, being no sea breeze that reaches there, am I correct?
     
  46. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    No worries. Yeah Millmerran's far enough inland that the afternoon seabreeze doesn't usually reach it. Inland areas like that, especially on and west of the Divide are a different kettle of fish in winter though. When southwesterlies blow in winter, those areas not only often have colder min temps but also colder max temps because not only is their elevation a bit higher, southwesterlies also become somewhat warmer (relatively speaking... they can still feel cold) and drier as they descend the leeward slopes of the ranges and reach coastal locations.

    And yep, Albury's a good example of a location that's more than far enough inland that afternoon seabreezes don't reach it. The higher terrain to the south and east also help block any seabreezes further.

    It's also why it's easier to accurately forecast max temps for quite inland places during the warmer months (where max temps are usually easily reached before the timing of any seabreeze can complicate it) and also for coastal fringe locations (where the seabreeze comes in well before they can complicate max temps).... but notoriously hard for places like the Brisbane CBD in between the extreme coastal fringe and inland where even a small shift in the timing of any seabreeze makes a big difference to what max temps are reached.
     
  47. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2020
    Messages:
    169
    Likes Received:
    659
    Location:
    Rockhampton
    GFS extended suggesting a system running down the coast from Cooktown to Mackay towards the later part of Jan.. It’s way out there but at least it brings a little bit of hope.
     
  48. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2019
    Messages:
    295
    Likes Received:
    1,772
    Location:
    Springfield
    A similar thing will often happen on Victoria on those extremely hot days - Melbourne will be forecast to reach 42c or something ridiculously hot, but will top out at 36 at midday and then drop like a stone thanks to the seabreeze or southerly change. All the while, it's still 35c in regional areas at 8pm.
     
  49. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,094
    Likes Received:
    17,829
    Yeah Melbourne's another spot where max temps can be tricky to forecast because of that. Even though it sits almost on the water's edge of Port Phillip, if hot northerlies battle a bit with a seabreeze trying to come in, it's a fine line between the actual max temp reaching the forecast max or falling well short.
     
  50. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2019
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    3,080
    Location:
    Brisbane (Western Suburbs)
    I'm starting to like the look of Saturday for some classic southerly action. The southerly is a bit more delayed on the most recent model runs allowing heat to build up more. Plenty of moisture, cold uppers, decent steering and shear, and some helicity. Latest Access-G3 has a clear precipitation blob forming over the border ranges in the early afternoon, intensifying over coastal SEQ (Brisbane) by late afternoon and declining over the far Sunshine Coast in the evening. Very similar signal to the Access-R modelling in the 24 hrs before the 2014 Brisbane supercell. I just hope it holds, but Saturday might surprise plenty of you.