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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    The temperature remained near average from the morning. The temperature was variable from the mid morning to the early afternoon. Dew point have also remained near average that was generally stable during the morning, though was a little variable, rose slowly in the afternoon before falling slightly in the late afternoon. Early tonight the dew point rose before falling a little later tonight.

    Moderately low relative humidity eased to slightly below average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly during the rest of the morning. Near average relative humidity in the afternoon became slightly below average in the late afternoon and early tonight while rising a little slowly. During the rest of the tonight the relative humidity have been near average. Winds became variable in the morning, then ESE to ENE in the late morning, E to NE in the afternoon with some NNE winds before N to NE early tonight was followed by calm winds.

    Last 24 hours:


     
  2. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just a note on 'capping' going through bsch skewT's this weekend for the GC, , I nevver seen anything like this, ,
    Satdy & Sundy -4pm have cap values of 27.5c & near 29c respectively,, whoah huuge ? That would take an USA's tornado alley supercell or a cat5 finger-of-god to break that eh...

    Mondy looking way betterra with Cap under 1c which is really good, havent seen it under 1c like forever - so have hopes up for a good afternoon Monday ?

    I thought any southerly would have dulled any capping somewhat and probably does in some cases, but not in this weekend case, this weekend's southerly appears forcasted for Sunday morning by bsch, yet cap is still 29c as mentioned on Sundy afternoon.
    Obviousely something I don't understand -




     
  3. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Like POW hungry's comment recently Plumbob they should call this place the Cap coast.
    Unfortunately if you want to see some storm action up here you are better of checking the data on the day, packing the car and travelling hundreds of kilometres.
     
  4. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't read too much into timing as I don't know enough about it, but I do note the latest EC run has lightning quite early close to Brisbane around 1pm for Saturday.
    If I am interpreting correctly about the time of the southerly change in the EC forecast ?

     
  5. BrettSS

    BrettSS One of Us

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    My, if that forecast is correct, that high in the Tasman Sea is going to be much further north than it has any right to be at this of year, especially during a La Nina.
     
  6. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah that's about right re change timing. EC currently has the change reaching the QLD/NSW border mid to late morning and Brisbane early to mid afternoon. Inland areas a bit later.
     
  7. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Those cap figures of 27.5C and 29C are just errors @PlumbBob
    There'd be some problem with the GFS data that BSCH is ingesting or the way it's calculating it. There's no way you can get cap figures even remotely close to those values with those types of soundings. Also, southerly changes actually tend to increase the capping as the cooler air invades the lower levels with warmer air above it. But that doesn't always shut down storm potential for the reasons I mentioned earlier (if westerly steering winds aloft are strong enough or if the flow behind the change is still unstable due to mixing).
     
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  8. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

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  9. PeteJ

    PeteJ One of Us

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    Looks like the storm chasers are in for a good time, but for us who are looking for bigger and better things like a genuine wet/rain season, it is just getting more horrendously hopeless. SAM struggling to stay positive, fading La Nina(and that is forecast, not my opinion), waters rapidly cooling off the SE QLD coast, a reduction in WATL 4 day rainfall for our area, and the forecast for the next 4 days looking better but always subject to change. I see Feb-March is still looking OK according to The BOM. When this almost early spring pattern happens, I think, yeah, there is still time for it to get back to normal, then it gets worse, and eventually, you are in late March and then you hope for maybe an autumn-winter type rain event and so on and on .......... Stay tuned for my next over the top optimistic post.
     
  10. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    ( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )
    15 JANUARY 2021
    TIME....0735
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.3C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........80%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......22C
    CURRENT WIND........SW 5Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1010.4HpA
    CURRENT CLOUD.... 1/8 Cu
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........31.2C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN ..........19.0C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-0.90C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....18.1C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......21C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1011.5Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND.....NE 26Kph at 1425
    PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.
    ...............................................
    JANUARY RAINFALL TO DATE...................25.2mm
    JANUARY AVERAGE RAINFALL..................154.0mm
    2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................25.2mm
    AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC 2021...1152.4mm
     
  11. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 issues...

    January this year has been quite cool, despite little rain. Up to halfway mark of the month, locally, 1.05C below average, despite warmer than average temps up to the 6th.

    Av max to date 29.7C ( normal 30.5C), Av min to date 20.2C ( normal 21.5C )

    Also January's locally have been on the dry side since this site was set up. The figures are as follows...

    2016...98mm
    2017..108mm
    2018...12mm
    2019...11mm
    2020..165mm ( only just above average )
    2021..so far to the halfway mark...25.2mm

    January long term average from nearby ( 750metres away ) Lytton is ..154mm....
     
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  12. .RC.

    .RC. One of Us

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    But to be fair, the BOM thought June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January were going to all be good. I do not think anyone in my area has any faith in their long range forecasting skills any more.

    That long long range CFS forecast seems to change dramatically week to week. I think the BOM should seriously think long and hard at the way they put out their long range forecasts.
     
  13. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 15 Jan 2021
    Time: 8:40 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 18.4 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 31.6 C
    Min Ground Temp: 16.8 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 28.1 C
    Relative Humidity: 62 %
    Dew Point: 20.2 C
    MSL Pressure: 1009.8 hPa
    Wind Speed: 5 kph - light air
    Wind Direction: N

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 1/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 14/1/21: Mostly sunny with Cu clouds. Near average or slightly warm that was stable or fell slowly in the early hours before near average temperature from the morning. Variable temperature from the mid morning to the early afternoon. Near average and stable dew point in the early hours, was generally stable in the morning but was a little variable, rose slowly in the afternoon , fell slightly in the late afternoon before rising a little early in the evening before falling a little during the rest of the evening while remaining close to average. Slightly below average relative humidity in the early hours, then became moderately low in the morning, eased to slightly below average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly during the rest of the morning. Near average relative humidity in the afternoon became slightly below average in the late afternoon and early evening while rising a little slowly. During the rest of the evening the relative humidity was near average. Light S to SW winds with some SSE winds and calm winds at times in the early hours, light S to SW winds in early morning before light NNE to ESE winds in the mid morning. Variable winds then followed, then ESE to ENE in the late morning, E to NE in the afternoon with some NNE winds before N to NE early in the evening was followed by calm winds.

    Today: Temperature is remaining near average that fell steadily in the early hours and have been rising steadily this morning. Dew point fell slowly in the early hours, and then rose this morning, while remaining near average. Near average relative humidity in the early hours became slightly below average this morning as the relative humidity fell. Calm winds early, light S to SW winds in the early morning became S to SE before veering to N to NE in the past half-hour.
     
  14. PeteJ

    PeteJ One of Us

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    I really just do not feel like getting too critical of the BOM's forecasts, short or long-range. What do you do when everything looks right for above average rains, then you get these constant failures in some areas that are supposed to be wet anyway, because of one persistent pattern, like massive upper troughs and lows over the Tasman sea. I only understand the upper trough/low problem thanks to many contributors to the forum. I have always understood how Tasman lows are the ultimate rain destroyer, but it certainly explains a lot.
     
  15. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Posted this in the TC forum but also posting here....this is the EC ensemble minimum pressure forecast from 216 to 360. Shows a couple of things...
    * The well forecast chance of some decent activity off the north west coast, heading south
    * A (much lower but still there) uptick in the Coral Sea
    Couple of optimistic takes from this: (1) the activity in the west could help break the current pattern downstream off the east coast - perhaps enough to stir up the ridging and offer something different for at least a short time, and (2) the chance of some Coral Sea action...which is likely to slide off to the SE but hey, you never know...and at least a couple of runs offer some action close to the SE coast:



    Not anywhere near as good as I'd be hoping for in January during a La Nina, but got to keep hoping for you guys up the coast who are doing it hard. For us down here it looks like storms today - will post photos through the day if anything kicks off.
     
  16. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Looks broadly consistent with what the tropical storm products from the multiweek EC ensemble and ACCESS-S have been suggesting too @Bello Weather

    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/ne-nsw-qld-weather.85082/page-284#post-4550501
     
  17. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    We'll probably get a big dump of rain in February or March.
     
  18. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, once it starts appearing within the range of multiple deterministic models, I'll feel more confident that something will form out there although given the signals that have been appearing in multiple ensembles, you'd think that at least some system will probably form out there whether it'd be a low or a TC.
    I did note yesterday that the next version of GFS was trying to form one or two lows out there towards the end of its run.
     
  20. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should probably mention that image is a mosaic of many forecast ensemble members as some may misinterpret it as a forecast. LOL
     
  21. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Yes @Flowin ! Defintiely not a forecast....

    Back to today and here's the NSW BoM storm forecast for today...could be an interesting one in NE NSW this arvo:

    Severe thunderstorms are possible along the east coast and northeast with possible damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Severe storms are more likely about the coast and adjacent inland between Gosford and Lismore, and in this area storms with large to giant hail, damaging to destructive winds, and heavy to intense rainfall are possible.



    31/18 here in Bellingen right now and climbing quickly in strong sunshine.
     
  22. Vinny

    Vinny One of Us

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    Can't remember where the story was last year I remember hearing how good the rain had been in Yeppoon for growing pineapples last year they had rain every month of the year, had been consistent. 1.2 metres is above the 900 and something mm average. Rockhampton below average though.

    Temperature 27.2°C [​IMG]
    Dew Point 18.2°C [​IMG]
    Feels Like 26.8°C
    Relative Humidity 58%


    So odd seeing a dew point of 18 degrees in January for here. Pretty sure the average dew point is usually around 22 degrees in January , though being up here cannot complain, least I'm not sweating. It's almost like "dry heat" for up here lol.
     
  23. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    But to be really really fair, when you look at the accuracy of the forecast and see that, for example in Feb, WBB barely makes 50% and Capricornia is in La La land, it's only reasonable to consider that anythings on the table and they should be read as such.
     
  24. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Cap Coast :thumbs: TweedStorm, POW, yup can def live with that, but I'd put an 'R' in the word Cap
    Hopefully I get to Toowoomba Monday for other reasons so hope to catch some storm action, looks like any action more coastal rather than out around the ranges and beyond tomoro too ?
    Cheers..
    ----------------
    ----


    Thanx @Ken Kato, thought crossed my mind and no doubt now you say :thumbs:
    The errors are still there today aswell then, they havent notice yet, but yes, taken onboard chief & has jolted my memory & seen this error once before, many yrs ago, anyway, Cap usually never get above 5 or 6'ish abouts.
    HavaGoodN.
    -------------------------
    --------------
    Hmmm, Long term models, only an estimation on previouse data over the weeks/months/years, , I personally now don't take it very seriousely at all, whist the computing logarithms ect are usefull for modelling, but in terms of unpredictable weather in long term reality is a diff kettle-of-fish, I do not discredit modelling, very good for troughs, synoptics and the generall effect from them for a couple of week or so, but for a month away, confidence dimishes quite a lot IMPO.
    My other assessment on the shorter more local term, ie, GC Brizz, Warwick or SunC etc , for rain, storms & other similar event, modelling is good, but again, looses accuracy after 3 - 4 days which is understood, but for a week out, nahh.

    February apears to be above average rain or exceeding median for most of Qld, & I expect thats due to Nino etc, but it definatley doesnt promise this. . as for March - Anyone ones Guess although summer trends, and or seasonal trends are always one thing, thats a given, but if Feb ends up dry with 'some' fires ( nothing huge like last year down south for eg) etc, I would not be surprised ?

    Just my thoughts, as recent years summers in seq seem very quiet but that maybe just a 'GC thing. ie, stormy accasionally in late Nov early Dec, nothing much at all untill late Feb early March, Nino or not.
    That Said, the next month or so may prove to be quite the opposite, many storm days, good rains with a lurking Cyclone, Hence - any ones guess !

    My Bob's worth/rant - carry on :cool:
     
    #14274 PlumbBob, Jan 15, 2021 at 1:41 PM
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2021 at 11:56 AM
  25. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Yeah Plumbob, your comment about Feb actually reminds me of my own occasional thought bubble I have about whether the trend these days is having to wait til around Feb to get flooding and decent spells of heavy rain... kind of like that QLD weather calendar thing I posted awhile back which jokingly has tumbleweeds for most of the year except for floods in Feb.
    Anyway above is the hourly "accumulated" lightning flash density from 18z EC for between 9am and midnight tomorrow. Meanwhile the magenta contours are actually derived from GFS data (0-6km shear and surface-based CAPE data). I found a way to import that data as a kml file so I can combine it with EC. One good thing about tomorrow is the fairly sunny skies that both EC and GFS are currently going for after dawn.
     
  26. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    What would be the consequences of a permanent drought? if this is the new normal.
     
  27. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Storms building to the west of town. Looks a *little* dry out there. 38\20 in town right now.

     
  28. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    Less.......rain.

    Sorry, I just couldn't ................, ok I'll leave now, sorry.
     
  29. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are paleo climate studies that have identified possible 40 year plus droughts several centuries ago....back then there wasn't 3 milllion people living in SEQ.
    I won't even attempt to speculate on consequences.
     
  30. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's storm map for tomorrow issued via Twitter.
     
  31. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah it might as well be October all over again. Severe storms in the south, dry and hot everywhere else. Rinse/repeat for Monday. Useless.

    And the models can try and spin up as many lows, TCs, whatever, out in the CS but it's another thing to be able to have everything else to fall into place to actually allow them to reach the coast anyway. You only have to look at Oma for a good example of this.
     
  32. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Well we got the storm. Reached close to 39c before it kicked off, strengthening now as it heads towards the coast:



    Meanwhile GFS 00z eye candy for far NE NSW...posting quickly before it disappears on the next run ;):



    GFS still having nothing to do with a cyclone off the NW coast - getting to a time frame where I would have expected to see the models coming together...
     
  33. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And here is CMC + 240 - TC off NQ, enormous upper trough over the Coral Sea about to send it SE:

    [​IMG]
     
  34. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Could it be possible that we're going into one of those megadroughts? There is talk of El Nino following this La Nina, that's the worst case scenario.
     
  35. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't think anybody could predict that. Paleo science shows likely/possible megadroughts in very long history, but we now have increasing anthropogenic influences at play....
     
  36. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Statistics of coast vs off to the graveyard would be interesting from the TCs database. My understanding is that in the absence of steering influences they should go west, so I assume it is all about favourable steering influences. PS I've learnt a lot from you and others about the importance of the upper levels on these forums... thanks for continuing to share and post.
     
  37. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Usually when there are very weak steering influences, TCs will just remain slow-moving, stall altogether or even slightly drift poleward (south in the SH). Has to be at least some sort of deep-layer ridging across the Coral Sea (that means, ridging not just through one level of the atmosphere but from say the lower atmosphere all the way up to at least the mids as well) for westerly movement of a moderate/stronger system to occur. However, what is often the case is we get ridging through the low-levels only, while the mids-uppers are still influenced by nearby upper troughs/lows etc, which means the top half of TCs (what should be vertically stacked cloud tops) end up being quickly sheared away to the east or SE instead.

    It's a tough life for a TC in the Coral Sea these days.
     
  38. Rainbow Serpant

    Rainbow Serpant One of Us

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    Fantastic description, thankyou
     
  39. Big T

    Big T One of Us

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    cap of 27 or 29 , sheesh , we would never see a storm ever again. maybe decimal point error 2.7 or 2.9c be ok , still a tad high , around 2.0 is acceptable. I dont mind the cap being moderate and watching towers explode once its broken...but not too high. fingers crossed for tmrw.
     
  40. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Well unsurprising Bom have downgraded rain fall for up here Mon down from 15-35mm to 8-20mm.So what are the odds
    of that being downgraded further.I'd say pretty good.
     
  42. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Remember the golden rule though - never pin any hopes on forecast rainfall amounts or take them at face value whenever the rainfall's from shower or storm potential unless it's going to be very widespread and heavy. I know it's easy to do but you're going to keep setting yourself up for disappointment 90% of the time if you do.
     
  43. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM have considered tomorrow's storm potential significant enough to put it in a severe weather update video.
    Though it is mixed in with severe weather for NQ.
     
  44. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps not Kosher given the title, but given we are on a ski forum, gotta love this forecast for Mt Buller, Victoria: SNOW!
    Here we are in the middle of this SE Qld Heatwave (as I hide inside with the air-con and cricket coverage on!):

     
  45. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Yes Ken but unfortunately whichever way one might take it i'd rather 20-30mm of steady rain over a whole day and know that will be close to what was forecast than this hit and miss rubbish.
     
  46. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    I'd say there's somewhat higher uncertainty about storm potential along the southern coastal part of SEQ (due to the cooler SE wind change pushing up through there earlier in the day) but if the reasonably strong westerly steering winds in the middle atmosphere can drag any storms into that section or if storms can form on the change itself, storms would become possible there as well.

    Forecast soundings suggest the most favourable areas for storm potential in general should be a touch inland of the coast and in the north but possible elsewhere as well.
    1st forecast sounding above - inland southern QLD for 2pm showing a fair bit of CAPE (yellow shaded region) and not much capping (red shaded region). This is all based on parcels rising from the surface mind you.
    2nd sounding - Sunshine Coast for 6pm showing tall skinny CAPE and again, not much capping.
    3rd sounding - Northern GC for 3pm. Note a fair bit of capping and not much CAPE... this is after the change has well and truly gone through there.

    It's a fairly favourable setup for a small portion of the storms to become severe – a temporarily cooler SE wind change pushing up the coast and clashing with the NNE afternoon seabreeze coming onto the coast as well as the drier NW to SW winds further inland.... creating a triple point.
    Shear will also be strong, enhanced further by the southeasterlies in the lower atmosphere behind the change undercutting the westerly winds aloft. The reasonably strong westerly steering winds aloft should also help advect any inland storms eastwards.
    There's also unlikely to be too much cloud cover in the morning and this should also allow for plenty of heating by the sun. In fact, max temps should be a number of degrees above average although they will be moderated somewhat along the coastal fringe by the seabreeze.

    The two things that have the potential to make storms far more localised than expected is the low level capping in a number of areas as well as some warm air in the midlevels. But I hope not.
    Regardless though, there should still be shower and storm activity in the region and the general stiff westerly steering also warrants avoiding the assumption that no storms will reach any capped post-change areas.

    On Sunday, the majority of the storm potential should contract further north and northwest but the atmosphere's likely to destabilised again in SEQ on Monday and Tuesday well after the stalled change weakens and dissipates.
     
  47. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Now i'm upset;):D
     
  48. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ;) :D :p
     
  49. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    I've got a good feeling about tomorrow, feels like it could be one of those cracker days.
     
  50. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    And of course I have committed to a trip away from the storms :( Wishing you all well.