Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
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Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,951
10,620
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
A light shower and nearby thunderstorm early tonight and a mild thunderstorm with brief moderate falls half through tonight. From the late morning the temperature became slightly warm while rising to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. After the temperature fell from the mid afternoon the temperature temporarily stabilised early tonight while becoming warm. During the rest of tonight the temperature have been generally falling steadily that became hot before easing to warm later tonight. Dew point was near average in the morning becoming moderately high from the early afternoon that rose from the late morning, rose more slowly from the mid afternoon before falling early tonight. The dew point rose slightly with the shower, became stable before falling slightly before the thunderstorm. The dew point rose slightly with the thunderstorm before falling slowly during the rest of tonight that remained moderately high.

Relative humidity stopped falling later in the morning and rose slowly becoming slightly above average in the afternoon and moderately high from the mid afternoon as the relative humidity rose a little more quickly. Tonight the relative humidity generally rose that temporarily fell before the rainfall before rising with the rainfall which eased to near average from early tonight becoming slightly above average late tonight. Light NNW to NE winds in the late morning, N to ENE in the afternoon, E to NE from the mid afternoon and initially became calm early tonight. Light N to NW winds before and with the rainfall before winds tended light W to SW winds that was a little gusty with the thunderstorm and N to NW after the thunderstorm. During the rest of tonight has been W to NW winds.

Last 24 hours:
rain 2021-8-29.PNG
temp 2021-8-29.PNG
hum 2021-8-29.PNG
wind dir 2021-8-29.PNG
wind speed 2021-8-29.PNG
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
Live chaser footage:

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" Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since the previous advisory.
The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16 satellite imagery.
The result has been rapid strengthening of at least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface wind speed of 116 kt.
Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of 120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. "


Meanwhile on the other side of the world, Cat 4 Ida's currently making landfall on the Louisiana coast (central pressure is currently 930hpa with sustained winds of 240km/hr and gusts much stronger than that, as analysed by the National Hurricane Centre).
Dangerous storm surge, destructive winds, isolated embedded tornadoes, and flooding rain are all associated with Ida.
The heavy rain associated with this system is forecast to eventually make it all the way up to the Northeast US this week including parts of New York after the system becomes an ex-hurricane.
All the official details here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

Here's the latest impressive hurricane hunter aircraft footage from inside its eye: https://www.facebook.com/NOAAHurricaneHunters/videos/4079976465457890/ (they pop out into its eye around halfway through the video). The data from the dropsondes released by the hurricane hunter aircraft into Ida has been sobering to say the least.
Above is a current radar image, a still image from the cockpit after eyewall penetration, and an NHC forecast discussion from earlier.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,251
8,276
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

MONDAY 30 AUGUST 2021 - TIME 0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........81%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......13C
CURRENT WIND.........S 7Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35Km
CURRENT PRESSURE..1018.7Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Ac
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather

RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY 3.6mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........22.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......10.5C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.20C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......9.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......13C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1015.6Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND....NW 32Kph at 2155
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Slight shower mid morning Sunday. Thunderstorm 2145 Sunday night.


AUGUST RAINFALL TO DATE......................16.6mm
AUGUST AVERAGE RAINFALL......................43.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1127.6mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF AUGUST...........796.2mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,951
10,620
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 30 Aug 2021
Time: 9:20 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 10.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 26.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 6.1 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 2.1 mm

Temperature: 21.8 C
Relative Humidity: 44 %
Dew Point: 8.9 C
MSL Pressure: 1018.9 hPa
Wind Speed: 1 kph -light air
Wind Direction: ENE

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 29/8/21: Partly cloudy in the morning and Sc and Ac clouds clearing to mostly sunny from the late morning with some Cu and Sc clouds. A light shower and nearby thunderstorm in the early evening and a mild thunderstorm with brief heavy falls in the mid evening. The temperature fell steadily during the early hours to the minimum temperature in the early morning when the temperature cooled to slightly cool. In the mid early hours the temperature was temporarily stable. While rising during the morning the temperature was near average becoming slightly warm wile rising to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. After the temperature fell from the mid afternoon the temperature temporarily stabilised early in the evening while becoming warm. During the rest of the evening the temperature generally fell steadily that became hot before easing to warm later in the evening. Dew point was near average that fell slowly until the early morning, rose during the morning and became stable from the mid morning. From the late morning the dew point rose becoming moderately high from the early afternoon, rose more slowly from the mid afternoon before falling early in the evening. The dew point rose slightly with the shower, became stable before falling slightly before the thunderstorm. The dew point rose slightly with the thunderstorm before falling slowly during the rest of the evening that remained moderately high. Relative humidity was near average until the early morning while rising slowly, and then fell during the morning that was slightly below average in early morning and near average from the mid morning. Relative humidity stopped falling later in the morning and rose slowly becoming slightly above average in the afternoon and moderately high from the mid afternoon as the relative humidity rose a little more quickly. In the evening the relative humidity generally rose that temporarily fell before the rainfall before rising with the rainfall which eased to near average from early in the evening becoming slightly above average late in the evening. Calm winds from early with some S to SW in the morning before ESE to ENE winds followed by NNW to NE winds in the late morning, N to ENE in the afternoon, E to NE from the mid afternoon and initially became calm early in the evening. Light N to NW winds before and with the rainfall before winds tended light W to SW winds that was a little gusty with the thunderstorm and N to NW after the thunderstorm. During the rest of the evening has been W to NW winds.

Today: Hot from the start of the day that eased to warm late in the early hours and to near average in the early morning. This is as the temperature rose in the first hour of the day and then generally fell during the rest of the early hours to the minimum temperature in the early morning. The temperature rose steadily this morning that became slightly warm during this morning. Dew point rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell afterwards until the early morning while easing from moderately low at the start of the day to slightly above average from the late in the early hours. The dew point rose in the early morning before falling during this morning easing to near average. Relative humidity fell slightly at the start of the day and generally rose slowly through to early this morning that was close to average. While falling quickly the relative humidity eased back to moderately low. Light W to WNW winds at the start of the day tended W to NW before calm winds late in the early hours. Mostly calm winds in the early morning with some WNW to SW winds before E to NE winds tending to S to SE with some NE to SE winds in the past hour.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
Well bom new better than me, late last night a storms passed just north of us, no rain just some lightning.... so there ya go. Lok

Yeah @Tsunami the first lot of storms missed my area as well, and the 2nd small storm behind them only just started ramping up as it went past near me so it was just close enough for thunder and a great light show.

But yesterday was another good example of how cloud cover doesn't always ruin the day if there's enough instability from cold air aloft as well as strong steering winds aloft.

Not to mention a good example of how it's never wise to write things off before the afternoon and evening's over.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
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Ooh pretty colours in the extended forecast. EC Wed 8th sep 3pm.

Capture.PNG


link

Hints of possible storms on Tuesday and Saturday - nothing might come of it, but early signs of an active season?

Funny you mention that @Michael Hauber , that system in the map you posted is part of a mindblowing scenario currently presented by EC
(the current run has snowfalls even extending up into the CENTRAL interior of QLD, not just southern QLD with -3C to -4C 850hpa temps reaching there.... which is virtually unheard of at that type of latitude range in this state, and would even beat the 850hpa temps associated with the Eungella snowfalls in the ranges behind Mackay in 1965 if it were to ever eventuate).

EC's current scenario has a sharply negatively tilted shortwave with very cold air pivoting up and inducing a cutoff low out there.

Above are some EC graphics for 850hpa and 500hpa temps/winds as well as those from some other models. The 2nd last map is 10-day EC snowfall. Also above is a multimodel graph of 850hpa temps for Quilpie. You can see that EC's currently one of the most aggressive of the models with most of the others being more modest. So I'm going to reserve judgement until later on and see if this scenario's still holding. Only then will I pay serious attention to it.
There is something to be said about the fact that all of those particular models are currently going for a sizeable dip in 850hpa temps around that time though - just disagreement on exactly how hardcore or modest it'll be.

As for tomorrow, some modest instability again as another shortwave passes through so might be a bit of shower/storm activity again with one or two possibly becoming punchy due to the reasonably good shear.... multimodel currently doesn't have precip being too widespread though with the majority of the focus being in northern and western parts.
 

Michael Hauber

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
610
3,483
263
GFS is a couple days earlier and further south with a strong upper low. CMC is a day earlier than EC and has a strong upper low over SEQ and ECL on mid north NSW coast.

Does look like potential for an event, but could be more NSW, and will depend on how the uppers play with the high pressure system moving through.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,951
10,620
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
The temperature became warm from the mid morning and hot from the late morning as the temperature rose quickly in the morning and more slowly in the afternoon to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. The temperature eased to warm in the mid afternoon and near average in the late afternoon while the temperature fell. Tonight the temperature have been slightly warm while falling before stabilising late tonight becoming warm in the past hour. Dew point eased from near average becoming slightly below average in the mid morning and moderately low from later in the morning as the dew point fell during the morning. In the afternoon the dew point became stable before briefly rising sharply in the mid afternoon and continued to rise afterwards that eased to slightly below average and then slightly above average from the mid afternoon. During the rest of the afternoon and tonight the dew point was stable and slightly above average.

Relative humidity dropped back from moderately low to low later in the morning while falling quickly during the morning, stabilised in the afternoon reaching a low of 19% before rising sharply in the mid afternoon for a brief period and continued to rise afterwards close to average. Light SSE to NNE winds in the mid morning, tending SSW to SE later in the morning becoming SW to SSE with some W winds. In the early afternoon winds tended to NNW to W, then W to SSW before backing in the mid afternoon to E to NE and N to NE in the late afternoon. Tonight the wind have been mostly calm.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-8-30.PNG

hum 2021-8-30.PNG
wind dir 2021-8-30.PNG


temp 2021-8-30.PNG
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,251
8,276
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

TUESDAY 31 AUGUST 2021 - TIME 0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...14.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......12C
CURRENT WIND........SW 4Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30Km
CURRENT PRESSURE..1023.1Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....3/8 Ac, 8/8 Cs
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather

RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY 0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........25.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......13.0C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.80C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....12.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1020.1Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND....NE 23Kph at 1515
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.


AUGUST RAINFALL TO DATE......................16.6mm
AUGUST AVERAGE RAINFALL......................43.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1127.6mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF AUGUST...........796.2mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,951
10,620
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 31 Aug 2021
Time: 7:55 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 12.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.6 C
Min Ground Temp: 9.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 15.7 C
Relative Humidity: 94 %
Dew Point: 14.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.9 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 7/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 330/8/21: Mostly sunny with some Sc and Cu clouds and increasing Ci clouds in afternoon. Hot from the start of the day that eased to warm late in the early hours and to near average in the early morning. This is as the temperature rose in the first hour of the day and then generally fell during the rest of the early hours to the minimum temperature in the early morning. The temperature rose steadily in the morning that became slightly warm in the early morning, became warm from the mid morning and hot from the late morning. The temperature rose more slowly in the afternoon to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. The temperature eased to warm in the mid afternoon and to near average in the late afternoon while the temperature fell. In the evening the temperature was slightly warm while falling before stabilising late becoming warm in the late evening. Dew point rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell afterwards until the early morning while easing from moderately low at the start of the day to slightly above average from the late in the early hours. The dew point rose in the early morning before falling during the morning easing to near average becoming slightly below average in the mid morning and moderately low from later in the morning. In the afternoon the dew point became stable before briefly rising sharply in the mid afternoon and continued to rise afterwards that eased to slightly below average and then slightly above average from the mid afternoon. During the rest of the afternoon and in the evening the dew point was stable and slightly above average. Relative humidity fell slightly at the start of the day and generally rose slowly through to the early morning that was close to average. While falling quickly in the morning the relative humidity eased back to moderately low in the mid morning to low later in the morning, stabilised in the afternoon reaching a low of 19% before rising sharply in the mid afternoon for a brief period and continued to rise afterwards close to average. Light W to WNW winds at the start of the day tended W to NW before calm winds late in the early hours. Mostly calm winds in the early morning with some WNW to SW winds before E to NE winds tending to S to SE with some NE to SE winds during the morning. Light SSE to NNE winds in the mid morning, tending SSW to SE later in the morning becoming SW to SSE with some W winds. In the early afternoon winds tended to NNW to W, then W to SSW before backing in the mid afternoon to E to NE and N to NE in the late afternoon. In the evening the wind was mostly calm.

Today: The temperature fell slowly or was stable in the early hours to the minimum temperature in the early morning and was warm. The temperature started to rise this morning while easing to slightly warm. Dew point was stable from early that rose slightly late in the early hours, before rising this morning that was slightly above average at the start of the day and moderately high afterwards and through to this morning. Relative humidity have been rising that have been near average. The wind have been calm.
 

Fattious

Early Days
Oct 30, 2020
9
62
13
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How did you get Google to display that by the way?

It's grown a bit now but not moving all that fast.
It is delivered as an Android notification.

Specifically the notification titled: "Weather alerts for big changes".
It must detect if impending conditions exceed thresholds of the short term forecast.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,040
13,198
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I reckon the actual radar looks more organised than what access C forecast radar or precipitation had suggested in its model runs over the last day or so.
Ken mentioned localised but that can be interpreted in different ways. :cool:

this is an important WTR moment
what the radar shows in the next few hours is anybody’s guess IMO. It could well fall apart or grow, or plod along.
Fascinating stuff to watch actualities and forecasts under different circumstances.
I can hear thunder here now.
4C5C58A9-5FF3-4555-BC37-1793D0261772.jpeg
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
I reckon the actual radar looks more organised than what access C forecast radar or precipitation had suggested in its model runs over the last day or so.
Ken mentioned localised but that can be interpreted in different ways. :cool:

this is an important WTR moment
what the radar shows in the next few hours is anybody’s guess IMO. It could well fall apart or grow, or plod along.
Fascinating stuff to watch actualities and forecasts under different circumstances.
I can hear thunder here now.
4C5C58A9-5FF3-4555-BC37-1793D0261772.jpeg

The radar’s actually a bit deceiving at the moment @Flowin because a fair bit of the echoes that look like heavier rain is chaff that happened to originate near where the convection originally was, and is merged with the real rainfall (there were some pretty looking oval shaped contrails over the Lockyer Valley earlier from the Amberley jets as well).
It also shows up in satpic vs radar comparisons where there’s distinct areas of no cloud despite radar echoes in those same areas.

Some of the lighter rain areas are also evaporating before reaching the ground due to the drier lower levels which is common with those setups.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,040
13,198
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
The radar’s actually a bit deceiving at the moment @Flowin because a fair bit of the echoes that look like heavier rain is chaff that happened to originate near where the convection originally was, and is merged with the real rainfall (there were some pretty looking oval shaped contrails over the Lockyer Valley earlier from the Amberley jets as well).
It also shows up in satpic vs radar comparisons where there’s distinct areas of no cloud despite radar echoes in those same areas.

Some of the lighter rain areas are also evaporating before reaching the ground due to the drier lower levels which is common with those setups.
Oh damn that chaff.
With future forecasts and obs I will have to factor in the chaff-tiness of authorities to throw out some chaff to confuse people

I put in on the record though that I heard some thunder…..or has the Air Force advanced to noise effects with their chaff?
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,350
30,132
363
Brisbane
Oh damn that chaff.
With future forecasts and obs I will have to factor in the chaff-tiness of authorities to throw out some chaff to confuse people

I put in on the record though that I heard some thunder…..or has the Air Force advanced to noise effects with their chaff?

Nah doubt you were hearing things - there's been lightning detected but it's been localised. I saw someone else reported thunder before as well.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,040
13,198
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I heard several jets in the last hour. I know the noise differences between jets and thunder because I lived at Walloon not far from Amberley from the late seventies to early nineties (last century). Not sure if them jets I heard in the last hour are collecting their prior chaff as a good environmental citizen would do, :rolleyes: or whether more chaff is being laid out.
 
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