Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
During the morning the temperature temporarily eased to near average in the early morning before slightly cool temperature during the rest of the morning while rising a little slowly to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. In the early afternoon the temperature became near average before dropping back to slightly cool from the mid afternoon while falling and eased to near average early tonight while falling a little slowly. During tonight while the temperature fell more quickly it moved back to slightly cool. Dew point was moderately low from the morning that rose slowly in the morning and early afternoon, then generally fell before rising sharply for a brief period in the mid afternoon. Later in the afternoon the temperature eased to slightly below average and then to near average from the late afternoon while rising before falling slowly from half way through tonight while remaining close to average.

Relative humidity eased during the morning to moderately low in the mid morning and slightly below average in the late morning as the relative humidity fell less quickly from the mid morning. In the afternoon dropped back to moderately low while steadily falling before rising from the mid afternoon easing to near average from the late afternoon. Light S to SW winds in the morning, tending S to SE in the late morning and early afternoon that was followed by S to SW winds with some variable winds. From the mid afternoon W to SW winds backed to E to NE during the rest of the afternoon and early tonight before mostly calm winds tonight.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-9-15.PNG
hum 2021-9-15.PNG

wind dir 2021-9-15.PNG
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,269
8,489
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

THURSDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2021 - TIME 0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...17.0C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C
CURRENT WIND.......SW 11Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1022.0Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Cu
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather.

RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........23.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......10.0C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-2.10C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......8.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......10C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1019.3Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...SE 24Kph at 1829
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................5.2mm
SEPTEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................31.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1132.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF SEPTEMBER........827.5mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 Sep 2021
Time: 9:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 8.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 25.3 C
Min Ground Temp: 5.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 20.4 C
Relative Humidity: 49 %
Dew Point: 9.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1021.2 hPa
Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: S

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/9/21: Sunny with some Cu clouds in the afternoon. After the temperature fell from the start of day the temperature temporarily rose before falling a little late in the early hours to the minimum temperature in the early morning and was cool. In the morning the temperature temporarily eased to near average before slightly cool temperature from the mid morning while rising a little slowly to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. In the early afternoon the temperature became near average before dropping back to slightly cool from the mid afternoon while falling and eased to near average early in the evening while falling a little slowly. During the evening while the temperature fell more quickly it moved back to slightly cool. Dew point was moderately low that was stable from early that rose a little slowly from the morning then generally fell before rising sharply for a brief period in the mid afternoon. Later in the afternoon the dew point eased to slightly below average and then to near average from the late afternoon while rising before falling slowly from half way through the evening while remaining close to average. Relative humidity was slightly below average and moderately low at times from early that stopped rising half way through the early hours, became stable before falling from the early morning that became low in this morning. In the mid morning the relative humidity eased to moderately low and to slightly below average in the late morning as the relative humidity fell less quickly from the mid morning. In the afternoon dropped back to moderately low while steadily falling before rising from the mid afternoon easing to near average from the late afternoon. Calm winds early before light S to SW winds during the morning, tending S to SE in the late morning and early afternoon that was followed by S to SW winds with some variable winds. From the mid afternoon W to SW winds backed to E to NE during the rest of the afternoon and early in the evening before mostly calm winds during the evening.

Today: The temperature generally fell in the early hours that rose slightly in the middle of the early hours that was slightly cool becoming cool in the early morning. While the temperature rose from the early morning the temperature eased to slightly cool and to near average during this morning. Dew point have been near average or slightly below average from early that fell slowly, rose slightly early this morning before stabilising slightly below average in the past hour. Relative humidity was near average until the early morning becoming moderately low in the past hour as the relative humidity fell quickly. Calm winds until light S to SW winds tended SSW to SSE in the last hour.
 

Stormwalker

Addicted
Jul 11, 2019
58
335
133
Looking to grab a 10-20mm lens for the Nikon with the aim of getting a nice photo of a supercell with the Coopers Gap Windfarm in the foreground.


Can any of the photographers in this thread recommend a good vantage point? Also, what sort of set-ups should I keep an eye out for? It looks like it'd be a three hour drive from my place, so I'm hoping not to have to do the drive more than a few times to "get the shot" :p
 
Sep 27, 2019
44
348
133
GFS throwing up a doozy mid-next week.
An outlier but has potential. Lots of polar air, a lot of moisture.
Indeed! However, it's not just GFS, Access-G also has a very strong upper cold pool inducing an ECL off the SEQ/NE NSW coast mid-next week. It will be interesting to see where the other models go with this over the coming days.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,419
30,934
363
Brisbane
51481127828_c49d5a47ea_b.jpg


For those who use the Water section of the Bureau's website, there's a new platform due to start up this month on part of the site called the Australian Water Outlook which includes seasonal outlooks with 9-day forecasts coming at the end of the year. This might interest you as well if you weren't aware already @Flowin

Re next week, 00z GFS has shifted next week's low further offshore while EC and ICON hardly have anything near the coast aside from the front.

On another note, I thought I'd share a close-up pic I took the other week of raindrops on the spring leaves of my English oak since it looked kind of cool.
 

PlumbBob

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
407
3,794
263
Molendinar
Looking to grab a 10-20mm lens for the Nikon with the aim of getting a nice photo of a supercell with the Coopers Gap Windfarm in the foreground.


Can any of the photographers in this thread recommend a good vantage point? Also, what sort of set-ups should I keep an eye out for? It looks like it'd be a three hour drive from my place, so I'm hoping not to have to do the drive more than a few times to "get the shot" :p
For what its worth, I havent been there, but mentioning a 10-20mm (which do suffer extreme distortion) you'd need be 200m from one to get some decent impact, doubt be allowed on the site at all, so I'd be more inclined with a 30 - 50mm and do a Pano. with most super cells moving in from the NW to Sth, need be on the E - NE kind thing, there is a property on the east side and looks to be a drive accross the property to the wstrn fence line, no harm in driving in and asking, whether home or not is pure chance ?
My bob's worth
 
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Ski Pass

Stormwalker

Addicted
Jul 11, 2019
58
335
133
For what its worth, I havent been there, but mentioning a 10-20mm (which do suffer extreme distortion) you'd need be 200m from one to get some decent impact, doubt be allowed on the site at all, so I'd be more inclined with a 30 - 50mm and do a Pano. with most super cells moving in from the NW to Sth, need be on the E - NE kind thing, there is a property on the east side and looks to be a drive accross the property to the wstrn fence line, no harm in driving in and asking, whether home or not is pure chance ?
My bob's worth

Thanks for the heads up :) I have a 18-? kit lens (can’t remember what exactly) and a 35mm prime. I’m shooting on a DX body so my plan was to go wide.

I might do a dry run and look for some good vantage points before the season kicks off - I’ll look around the N/NE as you’ve suggested :)
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Near average temperature in the morning easing to slightly cool from the late morning as the temperature stabilised and the temperature rose a little that was variable during the afternoon to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. In the mid afternoon the temperature became cool easing to slightly cool from the late afternoon and to near average during early tonight while generally falling. Dew point was slightly below average in the morning and afternoon and near average from the late afternoon that fell slowly in the morning, rose slightly from late in the morning, fell slightly in the afternoon before rising from the mid afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point stabilised before falling very slowly during tonight.

Relative humidity eased to slightly below average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly, remained slightly below average in the morning before rising from the mid afternoon while easing to near average that was temporarily slightly above average in the late afternoon. Light SSE to SSW winds in the morning with some W to SW winds later in the morning, tended E to SE in the middle of the day before SW to SE winds in the afternoon with some E to SE winds, shifted to E to NE from the mid afternoon, light ENE to ESE winds early tonight before calm winds afterwards.

Last 24 hours:

temp 2021-9-16.PNG
hum 2021-9-16.PNG
wind dir 2021-9-16.PNG
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,269
8,489
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

FRIDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2021 - TIME 0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...15.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C
CURRENT WIND........SW 7Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1023.4Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....Nil cloud
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather.

RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........23.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......11.0C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-1.55C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....10.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1020.8Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...E 29Kph at 1809
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................5.2mm
SEPTEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................31.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1132.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF SEPTEMBER........827.5mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
990
4,572
263
Yeppoon Queensland
Climate and Water Outlook BOM Youtube released.

Says wetter than usual for the eastern 2/3 of Australia Oct - December... so guess the pattern of dry is going to change next month?

The strongest signal for above average rainfall is in October it says

Also says a borderline neg IOD .

High and near median streamflows are likely at most forecast locations from Sept-November.

Oct-Dec days are likely to be cooler than average in the east . Warmer than average nights for most of country. Only place showing warmer than average on the map was northern NT , WA and from Townsville northwards .
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 Sep 2021
Time: 8:39 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 24.8 C
Min Ground Temp: 6.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 18.2 C
Relative Humidity: 66 %
Dew Point: 11.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1023.3 hPa
Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: S

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 16/9/21: Sunny in morning and mostly sunny in afternoon with some Cu clouds from morning. The temperature generally fell in the early hours that rose slightly in the middle of the early hours that was slightly cool becoming cool in the early morning. While the temperature rose from the early morning the temperature eased to slightly cool and to near average in the morning easing to slightly cool from the late morning as the temperature stabilised. The temperature rose a little that was variable during the afternoon to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon, then became cool in the mid afternoon easing to slightly cool from the late afternoon and to near average during the early evening while generally falling. Dew point was near average or slightly below average from early that fell slowly, rose slightly early in the morning before stabilising slightly below average in the morning and afternoon and near average from the late afternoon that fell slowly in the morning, rose slightly from late in the morning, fell slightly in the afternoon before rising from the mid afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point stabilised before falling very slowly during the evening. Relative humidity was near average until the early morning becoming moderately low in the morning as the relative humidity fell quickly. Relative humidity eased to slightly below average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly, remained slightly below average in the morning before rising from the mid afternoon while easing to near average that was temporarily slightly above average in the late afternoon. Calm winds until light S to SW winds tended SSE to SSW winds in the morning with some W to SW winds later in the morning, tended E to SE in the middle of the day before SW to SE winds in the afternoon with some E to SE winds. The wind shifted to E to NE from the mid afternoon, light ENE to ESE winds early in the evening before calm winds afterwards.

Today: The temperature generally fell in the early hours that was close to average to the minimum temperature in the early morning becoming slightly cool. This morning while rising the temperature eased back to near average. Dew point have been near average that fell slowly from early before rising from the early morning. Relative humidity was slightly below average or near average in the first half of the early hours and near average during the rest of the early hours while rising before dropping back to slightly below average during this morning while falling. Mostly calm winds from early became S to SW and then SSW to SSE in the last hour.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,699
38,777
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Reckon the 2nd trough cold system swinging through next week would be 'Locked-in' to 'Lock-down' parts of the country, ,,, we move around to much up here for a target,, Lol
Start of seasonal pangs ?
GFS looks to be the outlier with that transient low scenario (WED).
Looking far more benign on 06z, inline with EC
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Near average temperature in the morning becoming slightly cool from the late morning as the temperature rose more slowly until the mid afternoon that was variable from the late morning to the mid afternoon. From early tonight the temperature became near average that stabilised later tonight before falling again in the past hour. Dew point have remained near average stabilised from the mid morning, rose slowly in the afternoon, became stable from the mid afternoon before falling slowly or was stable from early tonight. Relative humidity became near average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly and stabilised later in the morning. From the early afternoon the relative humidity became slightly above average while rising easing back to near average from early tonight. Light SSW to SSE winds in the mid morning becoming ESE to ENE with some N to NW winds, E to NE in the afternoon with some N to NE winds, NNE to NE from the mid afternoon and N to NE winds early tonight with some N to NW winds. During the rest of tonight have been mostly calm winds.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-9-17.PNG
hum 2021-9-17.PNG
wind dir 2021-9-17.PNG
 

MegaMatch

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
2,835
12,882
363
where
I think you guys would be very interested in reading this one:


tldr; (my words), MJO likely to blame for Australia's dry spring last year whilst interfering with other climate variables. Article also tells of how climate modelling over-predicted other climate drivers such as -IOD, +SAM and ENSO, and also water temps close to AUS, possibly because of their inability to accurately account for the MJO in the months prior.
 

PeteJ

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
483
2,892
263
Toowoomba
I was able to understand parts of the article. We are about to get I think the third huge high behind a cold outbreak, forcing cold dry air right up into even the northern parts of the country. Been great for the SE corner of Australia but nothing for the foreseeable future for lots of the east. Even frosts possible inland mid next week. This with a positive SAM and SOI of +ve 10 and weak -ve IOD.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,419
30,934
363
Brisbane
Possibility of quite strong wind gusts at times on Tuesday as well, but highly subject to change (notoriously hard to predict til the last moment) depending on how the expected lowering pressures in the Tasman Sea behave next week.

Also the tiny chance of snow flurries extending into QLD but better chance around the higher parts of the northern tablelands such as Guyra.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,269
8,489
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

SATURDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2021 - TIME 0755

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...19.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........74%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......14C
CURRENT WIND........SW 8Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1023.4Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....3/8 Sc
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather.

RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........23.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......13.2C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-0.35C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....11.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1022.7Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...NE 23Kph at 1327
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................5.2mm
SEPTEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................31.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1132.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF SEPTEMBER........827.5mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 18 Sep 2021
Time: 8:15 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 11.1 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 24.6 C
Min Ground Temp: 8.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 19.3 C
Relative Humidity: 72 %
Dew Point: 14.1 C
MSL Pressure: 1024 hPa
Wind Speed: 10 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: NNW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 17/9/21: Mostly sunny with Cu clouds from later in the morning. The temperature generally fell in the early hours that was close to average to the minimum temperature in the early morning becoming slightly cool. In the morning while rising the temperature eased back to near average, became slightly cool from the late morning as the temperature rose more slowly until the mid afternoon that was variable from the late morning to the mid afternoon. From early in the evening the temperature became near average that stabilised late in the evening. Dew point was near average that fell slowly from early, rose from the early morning, stabilised from the mid morning, rose slowly in the afternoon, became stable from the mid afternoon before falling slowly from early in the evening, becoming stable late in the evening. Relative humidity was slightly below average or near average in the first half of the early hours and near average during the rest of the early hours while rising before dropping back to slightly below average during the morning while falling. Relative humidity became near average from the mid morning as the relative humidity fell more slowly and stabilised later in the morning. From the early afternoon the relative humidity became slightly above average while rising easing back to near average from early in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early became S to SW and then SSW to SSE in the mid morning becoming ESE to ENE with some N to NW winds, E to NE in the afternoon with some N to NE winds, NNE to NE from the mid afternoon and N to NE winds early in the evening with some N to NW winds. During the rest of the evening were mostly calm winds.

Today: The temperature have been near average that fell from the start of the day, temporarily stabilised in the middle of the early hours before falling to the minimum temperature in the early morning. The temperature have been rising steadily this morning close to average. Dew point have remained close to average that generally fell slowly from the start of the day before rising during this morning. Relative humidity remained near average that rose slowly from early before falling during this morning. Calm winds from early before N to NNW winds in the last 20 minutes.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,699
38,777
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Apologies if this has been shared previously in here, but if you’ve been wondering why you were skunked by rainfall last La Niña phase, last Spring; here’s your answer:
It’s no secret that climate outlooks over predicted warmer SST’s in the Northern Aus region and undercooked the MJO influence in equatorial IO.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,419
30,934
363
Brisbane
1631957794631.png


1631957842480.png



1631957385650.png

1631957313239.png


51488874008_419e898043_o.gif


Forecast 6-hourly precip and MSLP loop using the mean of all the members of the CMC, US Navy, and GFS ensembles which total to 72 members in all (3rd image above).

Also above is the EC ensemble multiparameter extreme forecast index plots for the 24hrs up to 10am on each respective day (yellows/oranges = very warm temps, blues = cold temps, purple = strong winds, green = significant precip) and its meteogram for Brisbane where I've circled in the aspects of interest coming up. Wind speeds are in m/s so multiply by approx 3.6 to get km/hr in sustained wind speeds.
Have also included the GEFS snowfall probabilities for Guyra and Eukey respectively.
 

Tsunami

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2019
867
5,408
263
Cleveland SE QLD
1631957794631.png


1631957842480.png



1631957385650.png

1631957313239.png


51488874008_419e898043_o.gif


Forecast 6-hourly precip and MSLP loop using the mean of all the members of the CMC, US Navy, and GFS ensembles which total to 72 members in all (3rd image above).

Also above is the EC ensemble multiparameter extreme forecast index plots for the 24hrs up to 10am on each respective day (yellows/oranges = very warm temps, blues = cold temps, purple = strong winds, green = significant precip) and its meteogram for Brisbane where I've circled in the aspects of interest coming up. Wind speeds are in m/s so multiply by approx 3.6 to get km/hr in sustained wind speeds.
Have also included the GEFS snowfall probabilities for Guyra and Eukey respectively.
Very good graphs, thankyou ken
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Near average temperature in the morning and afternoon that was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon with the maximum temperature reached in the early afternoon. During early tonight the temperature became slightly warm and warm during tonight while falling slowly during tonight before falling more quickly later tonight. Dew point was near average and stable in the morning, rose slowly in the afternoon slightly above average, fell slowly from the mid afternoon dropping back to near average from the late afternoon before stabilising tonight became slightly above average during tonight. After the relative humidity briefly became slightly below average in the morning, the relative humidity was near average from the mid morning while falling, and then rose from the early afternoon becoming slightly above average in the mid afternoon, near average from the late afternoon and became slightly below average during tonight. Light N to NW winds in the morning with some NNE winds, NW to NE in the early afternoon, then mostly light N to NE winds during the rest of the afternoon and early tonight before NNW to NNE winds while easing during tonight, followed by mostly calm winds later tonight with some W to NW winds.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-9-18.PNG
hum 2021-9-18.PNG
wind dir 2021-9-18.PNG
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,269
8,489
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

SUNDAY 19 SEPTEMBER 2021 - TIME 0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...20.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......14C
CURRENT WIND......WNW 12Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....25KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1023.0Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....1/8 Ac
CURRENT WEATHER..Smoke haze.

RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........24.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......15.1C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+1.20C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1023.5Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...NE 29Kph at 1417
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze developed.

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................5.2mm
SEPTEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................31.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1132.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF SEPTEMBER........827.5mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,419
30,934
363
Brisbane
28 deg on Tuesday but geez it looks dry

11 percent humidity and up to minus 9 dew point ? Drier than winter

1632002770628.png

Yeah it's going to be a really decent surge of drier air @Vinny . Early spring is notorious for them but this one's on the upper end of the scale.

As far SE QLD goes, feels-like temps are currently forecast to max out at only around 12 to 13C for Brisbane during the middle of the day (and around 5C for Toowoomba and Applethorpe) before dropping into single digits in the mid to late afternoon.

Also still looking at the possibility of southwesterly wind gusts strong enough to cause some power outages, downed branches, etc in some parts of our region.... again.

Still the slight risk of snow flurries extending to the QLD side of the border as well but better chances around the northern tablelands.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 19 Sep 2021
Time: 10:45 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 14.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 26.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 11.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 26.4 C
Relative Humidity: 48 %
Dew Point: 14.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1021.9 hPa
Wind Speed: 6 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: E

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 18/9/21: Mostly sunny with Cu and Sc clouds and some Ac clouds in the afternoon. The temperature was near average that fell from the start of the day, temporarily stabilised in the middle of the early hours before falling to the minimum temperature in the early morning. The temperature rose steadily in the morning that became a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon with the maximum temperature reached in the early afternoon. During the early evening the temperature became slightly warm and warm from the mid evening while falling slowly during the evening before falling more quickly later in the evening. Dew point was close to average that generally fell slowly from the start of the day before rising during the morning, rose slowly in the afternoon slightly above average. The dew point fell slowly from the mid afternoon dropping back to near average from the late afternoon before stabilising in the evening became slightly above average during the evening. Relative humidity was near average that rose slowly from early before falling during the morning, that briefly became slightly below average in the morning, then was near average from the mid morning while falling. The relative humidity rose from the early afternoon becoming slightly above average in the mid afternoon, near average from the late afternoon and became slightly below average during the evening. Calm winds from early before N to NNW winds in the morning with some NNE winds, NW to NE in the early afternoon, then mostly light N to NE winds during the rest of the afternoon and early in the evening. Light NNW to NNE winds while easing during the evening, followed by mostly calm winds later in the evening with some W to NW winds.

Today: Warm from early in the day easing to slightly warm from the early morning while the temperature fell steadily before rising during this morning becoming warm from the mid morning. Dew point remained slightly above average that slowly fell in the early hours, rose a little in the early morning before becoming stable since the mid morning. Relative humidity was slightly below average in the early hours while rising, fell from the early morning which after becoming near average returned to slightly below average. Mostly calm winds in the early hours with some brief periods of W to NW or SW winds at times, then mostly SW to SE winds this morning tending SE to NE from the mid morning.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Warm temperature in the morning eased to slightly warm from the middle of the day as the temperature rose more slowly that was variable later in the morning and reached the maximum temperature in the middle of the day. In the afternoon the temperature was generally stable before falling from the mid afternoon when it became near average, was briefly near average later in the afternoon. Tonight the temperature have been mostly slightly warm while steadily falling. Dew point was slightly above average in the morning that was generally, fell slowly in the afternoon close to average before rising late in the afternoon and early tonight becoming slightly above average before falling slowly during the rest of the tonight.

Slightly below average relative humidity became near average from the late morning as the relative humidity fell slowly from the late morning and then rose from the late afternoon becoming slightly above average for a period later tonight before dropping back to near average. Light SW to SE winds shifted to ESE to NNE later in the morning with some E to SE winds, light E to NE winds in the afternoon, light N to NE winds early tonight before calm winds during the rest of tonight.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-9-19.PNG
hum 2021-9-19.PNG
wind dir 2021-9-19.PNG
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
1632082704132.png


51494074634_3559604dde_b.jpg


51493585508_d3386c3b5d_b.jpg


Above: EC soundings for slightly upstream of Brisbane tonight (left image) and the Granite Belt for midday Tuesday. Also above are a couple of EC ensemble EFI plots, a 2-day snowfall potential map from another ensemble, and forecast feels-like temps for late Tuesday afternoon.

Purple = significantly stronger winds than average.
Blue = much cooler than average.
Yellows/oranges = much warmer than average.
Green = significant precipitation (doesn't include any lighter rainfall).

Late this afternoon or overnight tonight might see a bit of shower activity or very patchy light rain with low rainfall totals around with partial evaporation as precip falls into the dry lowers. Any storm activity from midlevel instability also looks localised at best and nothing at worst due to the rather ugly looking profiles.

Tuesday could also see localised pockets of short power outages or downed branches/weak trees from the very gusty southwesterlies.

As for snow potential on the QLD side of the border, I think the chances currently look reasonably low (due to the best moisture arriving during the daytime when temps below ~900hpa will make things hard for flakes to survive, and also some decrease in moisture and coldness in the most recent run)....... although the upcoming runs would need to be monitored just in case there's a bit of a last minute upgrade.
There was a similar setup in our most recent winter where there was more than enough moisture and cold air aloft but because the moisture arrived in the afternoon, near-surface temps were too high.
Will make a final call on this when I see the runs later today to see whether or not this has changed.
 

Retired Weather Man

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

MONDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2021 - TIME 0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...19.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......17C
CURRENT WIND.......WNW 6Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....25KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1021.0Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....4/8 Sc
CURRENT WEATHER..Smoke haze.

RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........26.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......14.7C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.05C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1021.2Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...NE 23Kph at 1617
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Smoke haze.

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................5.2mm
SEPTEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................31.3mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1132.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF SEPTEMBER........827.5mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,972
10,795
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 20 Sep 2021
Time: 9:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 13.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.5 C
Min Ground Temp: 10.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 24.9 C
Relative Humidity: 58 %
Dew Point: 16 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: N

Present Weather: Haze
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 19/9/21: Sunny with some Sc clouds. Warm from early in the day easing to slightly warm from the early morning while the temperature fell steadily before rising during the morning becoming warm from the mid morning. From the middle of the day the temperature eased to slightly warm as the temperature rose more slowly that was variable later in the morning and reached the maximum temperature in the middle of the day. In the afternoon the temperature was generally stable before falling from the mid afternoon when it became near average, was briefly near average later in the afternoon, and was mostly slightly warm in the evening while steadily falling. Dew point was slightly above average that slowly fell in the early hours, rose a little in the early morning before becoming stable from the mid morning, fell slowly in the afternoon close to average before rising late in the afternoon and early in the evening becoming slightly above average before falling slowly during the rest of the the evening. Relative humidity was slightly below average in the early hours while rising, fell from the early morning which after becoming near average returned to slightly below average. From the late morning the relative humidity became near average as the relative humidity fell slowly from the late morning and then rose from the late afternoon becoming slightly above average for a period later in the evening before dropping back to near average. Mostly calm winds in the early hours with some brief periods of W to NW or SW winds at times, then mostly SW to SE winds in the morning tending SE to NE from the mid morning and ESE to NNE later in the morning with some E to SE winds. Light E to NE winds in the afternoon, light N to NE winds early in the evening before calm winds during the rest of the evening.

Today: The temperature have been slightly warm from early that steadily fell through to the early morning and rose from early this morning. Dew point have been slightly above average that slowly fell from early, then rose from early this morning moderately high before stabilising in the past hour. Relative humidity rose slowly early the early morning before falling this morning and has been near average. Calm winds early before some W and then S to SW winds at times early this morning before E to NE winds tended N to NE this morning with some E to SE winds.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,419
30,934
363
Brisbane
I see that possible gusts to exceed 70kmh in some places

Yeah posssible @Tsunami ... but "some" being the operative word there. I think gusts exceeding 70 will probably be mainly around elevated terrain and on ridges, some places near the eastern foothills of the ranges which can get some downslope wind effect, open exposed areas, and offshore islands.
Those are the areas where there may be some short power outages/downed branches in some spots.

Speeds will probably be a bit lower than that elsewhere but should still become pretty gusty from time to time. Gust speeds are notoriously fickle though so there's occasionally times when forecast speeds suddenly downgrade or upgrade significantly at the last minute.
 
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