Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

MegaMatch

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@MegaMatch using that same BOM web AWRA-L simulated landscape moisture it can be interrogated to get the simulated time history for a point or a pre-defined river catchment area.
plot below is for location close to Maryborough.
The estimate of deep soil moisture your way (and no doubt further north up to Rockhampton) does appear to be quite dismal ATM.
@Michael Hauber mentioned last decent rains around 2013 and that is reflected in the simulated deep soil moisture time history plot.
Two other points with this product to be wary of:
(1) is that deep soil moisture is hard to validate so there is more uncertainty than say estimated root zone soil moisture
(2) is that deep soil moisture is slow to respond to rain so replenishment of deep soil moisture tends to only show up a few months after a decent rainfall period. In the simulation model deep soil moisture replenishment is constrained by the rate of deep drainage from the the root zone into deep zone

D4ECFD39-FFE2-4F76-84F9-311774D31D9E.jpeg
Thanks Flowin, much appreciate your insight into the workings of soil moisture and the like. You can even see the big spike after Debbie, but a gradual decline ever since. It's scary to think how bad it would have been had Debbie not paid us a visit.

The wet/dry periods show up really clearly there - the August Rainbow Beach ECL will always stick out in my mind as the beginning of the last big wet period, from then onwards it just felt as though something had clicked. One of the most garbage Coral Sea TC seasons on record that year and into 2008 but heaps of big upper troughs, tons of moisture and just much more regular rain events in general, the more notable one being the Feb 2008 gulf low which dragged the monsoon trough down over us. That was the same event that also brought big rains to the Capricornia and Central Highlands, caused heaps of flash flooding and forced many road closures up here. 2010/11 floods, tropical low in March of 2012, Oswald, the list goes on.

That entire period up until about 2013 (minus the 2009 dust Nino) was great, then...something...happened. You would still get the odd big event (like Marcia & Debbie or some silly freak rain event that'd give us a top us up, like we had that one storm that magically parked right over us early this year), but then below average for months...hence the gradual drying trend. And this doesn't just go for my area, but I think most of us in Queensland (yes, even most of SEQ if you look at super long-term trends), it's just that some areas are feeling it to a much larger degree than others.

Anyway, enough of my rambling. I can happily say that I have received 15.8mm in the past hour from that cell, but no lightning or thunder to speak of. Just keep this stuff coming please mother nature for everyone who needs it.
 

MegaMatch

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So a similar La Nina to last summer?
Every La-Nina is different...but this one has that 'do or die' feeling to it for those areas where last year's Nina flopped so badly.

PS not a fan of the timing of Friday's trough/dryline so far - too early for my liking. Looks as though we'll see storms in the early hours of Friday instead of the preferred afternoon hours when convective energy reaches its peak.
 

Ken Kato

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1634035544605.png


1634035581710.png


Thanks Flowin, much appreciate your insight into the workings of soil moisture and the like. You can even see the big spike after Debbie, but a gradual decline ever since. It's scary to think how bad it would have been had Debbie not paid us a visit.

The wet/dry periods show up really clearly there - the August Rainbow Beach ECL will always stick out in my mind as the beginning of the last big wet period, from then onwards it just felt as though something had clicked. One of the most garbage Coral Sea TC seasons on record that year and into 2008 but heaps of big upper troughs, tons of moisture and just much more regular rain events in general, the more notable one being the Feb 2008 gulf low which dragged the monsoon trough down over us. That was the same event that also brought big rains to the Capricornia and Central Highlands, caused heaps of flash flooding and forced many road closures up here. 2010/11 floods, tropical low in March of 2012, Oswald, the list goes on.

That entire period up until about 2013 (minus the 2009 dust Nino) was great, then...something...happened. You would still get the odd big event (like Marcia & Debbie or some silly freak rain event that'd give us a top us up, like we had that one storm that magically parked right over us early this year), but then below average for months...hence the gradual drying trend. And this doesn't just go for my area, but I think most of us in Queensland (yes, even most of SEQ if you look at super long-term trends), it's just that some areas are feeling it to a much larger degree than others.

Anyway, enough of my rambling. I can happily say that I have received 15.8mm in the past hour from that cell, but no lightning or thunder to speak of. Just keep this stuff coming please mother nature for everyone who needs it.

If it makes you feel better (probably won't though), you're not alone. I think I might've posted the above maps on here before but the longer term trend also has some other regions of Australia having undergone a decrease in rain in one or both halves of the year. I think the thing that sets areas like the WBB and CQ apart is just how consistently it's been refusing to rain properly when it "should" while some other regions get drenched when climate drivers are favourable.
Meanwhile areas like northwest Australia have seen increasing total rainfall during their wet seasons but with a lot of variability.
There's good confidence in the contraction of the polar vortex causing the cool season rainfall decrease in southwest WA and VIC but the confidence in a continued decrease in eastern Australian rainfall in spring is a bit less.
 

MegaMatch

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1634035544605.png


1634035581710.png




If it makes you feel better (probably won't though), you're not alone. I think I've posted the above maps on here before but the longer term trend also has some other regions of Australia that have undergone a drying trend in one or both halves of the year. Meanwhile areas like northwest Australia have seen increasing total rainfall, albeit with a lot of variability.
I'm fine, you sort of come to realise that that's just how it is. Nothing we can do about it. I did mention in my post that most of QLD have been feeling it one way or another so I totally get that I'm not alone! Still, it's fun to sometimes reminisce over the more memorable weather years and wonder whether they'll ever return even for something as little as a short period rather than prolonged one.
 

Ken Kato

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I'm fine, you sort of come to realise that that's just how it is. Nothing we can do about it. I did mention in my post that most of QLD have been feeling it one way or another so I totally get that I'm not alone! Still, it's fun to sometimes reminisce over the more memorable weather years and wonder whether they'll ever return even for something as little as a short period rather than prolonged one.

Yeah I know, I was referring more to the fact that certain other regions of Australia have had a significant rainfall decrease as well, not just parts of QLD. But still, CQ and WBB seem to be next level when it comes to refusal to rain properly.

When things go quiet for ages, every now and then, I look back at all the photos and videos I've taken during major weather events. Obviously that's hard to do in areas where nothing's happened for a long time.

For me personally, the snow flurries near Stanthorpe during the most recent winter as well as the sheer number of strong cold southwesterly bursts and rainfall-bearing fronts as well as some storms should hopefully tide me over again for awhile, even if every single day was dead for the next 9 months. It wasn't a white winter wonderland or anything like in 2015 but considering the debacle of last year where it seemed to snow everywhere else but in this region, I'll take it, even if it's only once or twice a year.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Brief light showers during the afternoon. The temperature rose rather slowly in the morning and afternoon that was rather variable while generally rising that became cold from later in the morning but was briefly cool in the mid afternoon. The temperature fell in the second half of the afternoon that briefly rose slightly late in the afternoon before falling through to early tonight while easing to cool in the late afternoon and to slightly cool early tonight. During tonight the temperature eased to near average that became generally stable. Dew point rose during the morning that was slightly above average from the mid morning, rose slowly in the afternoon, fell from the mid afternoon while easing to near average before rising slowly later tonight.

Relative humidity quickly became very high from the mid morning to the late afternoon that fell very slowly from the mid morning to mid afternoon before generally rising slowly afterwards that was stable at times. During tonight the relative humidity eased to near average. Light S to SW winds in the morning with some SSW winds, S to SW in the early afternoon, tending S to SE from the mid afternoon and S to SW late in the afternoon and early tonight. After some calm winds were SSW to SSE winds later tonight tending S to SW in the past hour.

Last 24 hours:
rain 2021-10-12.PNG
temp 2021-10-12.PNG
hum 2021-10-12.PNG
wind dir 2021-10-12.PNG
 

Rainbow Serpant

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@MegaMatch using that same BOM web AWRA-L simulated landscape moisture it can be interrogated to get the simulated time history for a point or a pre-defined river catchment area.
plot below is for location close to Maryborough.
The estimate of deep soil moisture your way (and no doubt further north up to Rockhampton) does appear to be quite dismal ATM.
@Michael Hauber mentioned last decent rains around 2013 and that is reflected in the simulated deep soil moisture time history plot.
Two other points with this product to be wary of:
(1) is that deep soil moisture is hard to validate so there is more uncertainty than say estimated root zone soil moisture
(2) is that deep soil moisture is slow to respond to rain so replenishment of deep soil moisture tends to only show up a few months after a decent rainfall period. In the simulation model deep soil moisture replenishment is constrained by the rate of deep drainage from the the root zone into deep zone

D4ECFD39-FFE2-4F76-84F9-311774D31D9E.jpeg
Very interesting guys. I see the results of course on my property in terms of pasture growth and also watch the pasture growth percentile data from Longpaddock.
Many beef producers & land users in the area have been irrigating using pumped ground water/bores to keep grass growing for feed, however what I’ve noticed is probably due to more people accessing these aquifers and lack of replenishment rainfall, many old faithful bores have dried. One on my property first registered in 1968 has gone dry for the first time I know of.

E2799AC3-7C4B-40F9-8318-D2C518AC7C6F.gif
 
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Ski Pass

Retired Weather Man

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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

WEDNESDAY 13 OCTOBER 2021 - TIME 0740

CURRENT TEMP..........20.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........94%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......19C
CURRENT WIND.......SSE 16Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1013.1Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......3/8 Cu, 3/8 Sc, 1/8 Ac
CURRENT WEATHER..Distant showers to east.

RAIN SINCE 0900 TUESDAY....2.4mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........22.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......16.0C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-1.60C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....14.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1010.7Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...SW 21Kph at 1727.
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Slight rain mid afternoon Tuesday, then overnight showers into early morning Wednesday.

OCTOBER RAINFALL TO DATE.....................57.8mm
OCTOBER AVERAGE RAINFALL.....................94.4mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1194.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF OCTOBER..........921.9mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Michael Hauber

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Big trees have been stressed for many years because of below average rain in summer, compare this pic on my block to Ken Kato's just a few hundred kl's south.

IMG_20211012_140443626.jpg

Where I am is probably closer to looking like Ken's place than your place. Small trees are fine and with the recent rain small stuff is lush and the soil is quite wet on the surface. According to the BOM deep moisture Mega posted my area is pretty close to normal, but there is a lot of uncertainty for the data. In many areas the biggest trees look good, but in some areas there are some trees with similar symptoms to what you show. Could just be natural die back due to other causes, and I'm sure the drier conditions of a couple years back took their toll - that is when I started noticing a couple totally dead trees in my area. I've also noticed that in the shorter droughts we have had there has been a real contrast in grass as a couple of times we've gone from decent rains to a period of near a month with near zero rain in summer resulting in a patchwork with faster drier areas seeing very brown grass while protected areas have lush green grass. Perhaps the long term rainfall deficits have shifted soil moisture balances slightly and many places are doing fine but a few places are losing deep moisture faster than it can be replenished, until a tree or three dies back and shifts the balance back due to reduced demand from vegetation.
 

Vinny

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Yeppoon Queensland
Where I am near Yeppoon on the coast only looks lush in my yard because I have a sand spear but also because a lot of the time during the year the rain hits the exposed coast or Yeppoon only and Rockhampton gets barely anything . Even Cawarral about 20km inland seems to get rain but the coastal stuff the past year or two seems to not want to do much for Rocky.

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The air is very humid , surely it's primed for some system to come through and tap into it and dump some rain here soon.. I mean we're in October not February/March and the humidity is 92 percent, temperature of 25 deg now and dp of 23.6 deg !

Also still yet to see an endless week of SE winds...
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 13 Oct 2021
Time: 8:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.3 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.8 C
Min Ground Temp: 14.1 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.7 mm

Temperature: 20.4 C
Relative Humidity: 86 %
Dew Point: 17.8 C
MSL Pressure: 1013.1 hPa
Wind Speed: 2 kph - light air
Wind Direction: ESE

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 7/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 12/10/21: Cloudy periods with Cu, Sc and As clouds. Light to moderate showers and rain periods in the early hours. Brief light showers in the afternoon. While falling the temperature was stable at times during the early hours that was slightly warm before rising slowly or was stable from the early morning that was near average becoming cool, while rising slowly in the morning and afternoon that was rather variable while generally rising. The temperature became cold from later in the morning but was briefly cool in the mid afternoon. The temperature fell in the second half of the afternoon that briefly rose slightly late in the afternoon before falling through to early in the evening while easing to cool in the late afternoon and to slightly cool early in the evening. During evening the temperature eased to near average that became generally stable. Dew point fell slowly from early in the day before rising slowly from the early morning that was slightly above average. Dew point rose slowly in the afternoon, fell from the mid afternoon while easing to near average before rising slowly later in the evening. Relative humidity was stable and near average from early, then quickly became very high from the mid morning to the late afternoon that fell very slowly from the mid morning to mid afternoon before generally rising slowly afterwards that was stable at times. During the evening the relative humidity eased to near average. Light WNW or S to SE winds at the very start of the day, then S to W during the rest of the early hours with some calm winds before light S to SW winds in the morning with some SSW winds, S to SW in the early afternoon, tending S to SE from the mid afternoon and S to SW late in the afternoon and early in the evening. After some calm winds were SSW to SSE winds later in the evening.

Today: A brief light shower in the mid early hours. The temperature dropped slightly in the first hour of the day close to average before the temperature was stable and then rose slowly during the rest of the early hours that became slightly warm. During this morning while rising the temperature became slightly warm. Dew point rose slowly in the early hours close to average becoming slightly above average from the second half of the early hours before rising during this morning. Relative humidity have been near average that rose a little at the start of the day, became stable before falling slowly from early this morning. Light S to SW winds with some W to SW winds from early becoming S to SE from early this morning and S to SE in the last half hour.
 

Ken Kato

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Latest EC ensemble heatmap for CAPE for Brisbane.
Good consistency for some storm fuel late Thursday into early Friday.
A few ensemble members also appear to have CAPE around midday into early afternoon Friday. I am guessing these ensemble members have the system arriving a little later.

Second pic heatmap from GFS.

1634082025830.png


1634082121260.png

From the quick glances I've seen, it's still looking like one of those "storms could occur at any time of day or night over the next few days, including overnight/morning" type deals.

It's possible that some of the inland storms today may eventually get dragged into some parts of SE QLD/NE NSW from as early as tonight/tomorrow morning by the strong steering winds aloft (and a possible increase in shower activity before that).

Severe storms still looking highly likely for some portions of the lower east of QLD and eastern NSW during this period (in fact, forecast soundings for some of the more favourable areas look supportive of particularly dangerous storms with some tornado/giant hail ingredients) and even for those other portions which don't get a severe storm, many areas will still probably get general storm activity.

I'll be having a closer look in a few hours to see if any of this has changed and also for what may complicate things (premature or pre-existing cloud cover/rainfall/storms taking the edge off severity in some areas, less severe overnight/morning storms vs more severe afternoon storms, the trickiness of how much storm activity will be left later on Friday after any morning activity, etc).
 

Nic Bri

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Mount Gravatt East
One thing I have noticed this year is that the afternoon sea breeze isn't as cool as it was last year? Hopefully means some nice warm juicy ocean air helping with onshore showers possible cyclone genesis. Sky looks more like the summery Brisbane I remember, low bases and humidity coming in from the sea, hopefully a sign of return to summer seasons past!
 

Ken Kato

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Brisbane
One thing I have noticed this year is that the afternoon sea breeze isn't as cool as it was last year? Hopefully means some nice warm juicy ocean air helping with onshore showers possible cyclone genesis. Sky looks more like the summery Brisbane I remember, low bases and humidity coming in from the sea, hopefully a sign of return to summer seasons past!

The sea surface temps off northeast QLD and the NT are indeed warmer than normal at the moment but when it comes to further down the coast from about SE QLD and southwards, those warm SST anomalies are generally confined to a fairly narrow patchy strip near the coast (closer to average further out to sea).

The warm waters would definitely be helpful to cyclones up north but you still need shear to be weak enough for TC's to develop.
 

Vinny

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Yeppoon Queensland
We better get some relief soon, maybe because it is October this isn't feeling too bad, maybe it is the breeze keeping it bearable..

We need a massive 50mm -100mm dump of rain to suck the humidity and warmth away lol

The Dew Point is higher than Darwin isn't it ?

I guess it's more humid than Darwin but the temperature is lower so more bearable ....

CURRENTLY AT YEPPOON​

24-Hour Graph
Temperature​
27.1°C
nav_trend_up.gif
Dew Point​
24.4°C
nav_trend_up.gif
Feels Like​
29.9°C
Relative Humidity​
85%
Wind​
ne_0.gif
NE 16km/h
nav_trend_down.gif
Wind Gusts​
20km/h
 

Ken Kato

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Ken was taking of possible activity over night tonigh, but bom not saying anything... did I read wrong Ken

I did a writeup for social media with my thoughts if that's of any help @Tsunami - text and map below:


51584135724_67d083fa18_b.jpg


Even though obviously not every person in the coloured areas on these maps is going to get a big storm or good rainfall, this is a very potent setup and likely to cause a widespread thunderstorm outbreak across large sections of SE, E, and N Australia on Thursday into part of Friday, with severe storms highly likely in at least some portions of these areas...... some could also get a particularly nasty supercell (with damaging to briefly destructive winds, large to locally giant hail, and bursts of intense rainfall). These types of setups can also sometimes produce the odd destructive tornado in the more favoured areas although not all of them do.

Showers/storms could start affecting some portions of SEQ (the SE Coast district) as early as overnight tonight or Thursday morning if the strong steering winds above us can manage to drag inland storms to the coast..... so don't be surprised if some of you get an abrupt early wakeup call from thunder or some downpours.

Although the bulk of any rainfall in SEQ should mainly favour Thursday morning (the activity in the afternoon being more in the form of shorter bursts) as well as Friday morning, some shower or storms activity will be possible at any time of day or night until Friday in SEQ. This is due to the increasing background destabilisation from the upper trough (showers may occasionally tend to rain areas as well)..... but it's not going to be storming or raining for every hour of the day.


TECHNICAL NOTES:

Most aspects of this setup are highly supportive of widespread storms in the more favoured areas with a number being severe. No shortage of shear, instability and moisture. This is also combined with some directional and speed shear in the lowest level of the atmosphere which means the potential for a localised tornado somewhere can’t be ruled out.

But it's still definitely worth keeping a few potential complicating factors in the back of the mind i.e. in the areas where there’s too much pre-existing morning cloud cover, rainfall, or storms that hangs around well into the afternoon without any clearer breaks, storms later in the day are unlikely to be as severe or widespread.

Also, as is often the case with these high-end multiday setups, there's always the possibility that in some areas, there's too many showers/storms which mass up into a cloudy rainy band early on (taking the edge off the severity of storms in those areas)…. and last into the next morning which then affects the potential the next day in those areas.

Also keep an eye on the rear edge of any cloudbands moving out of an area since storms can often fire up in that zone, even if that cloudband's been sitting over that area in the morning.

Friday afternoon is also a complicated one to forecast for SEQ because a) if showers and storms last into Friday morning, we'd have to have enough patches of clearer sky to then open up to help with heating for storms and b) if the drier westerlies sweep right through to the coastal fringe early on, this would mean most storm potential ends before the afternoon.

This last point is particularly critical because even the tiniest of shifts in the boundary between the dry westerlies and moist northerlies ahead of them can make all the difference between big crisp-looking cumulonimbus clouds exploding along the coastline (often nicknamed "nukes" in weather-speak) and nothing at all.

At this stage, guidance suggests storm potential may become more localised as we head further into the afternoon before dissipating but it'll need to be monitored closely just in case this changes, or if lingering moisture with the upper level trough and cold air aloft can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Here’s a couple of thunderstorm potential maps generated by data from one of the models for the period covering the combined Thursday to Friday period (both maps are for that same period). But remember, storms won’t affect every coloured area on both days – this is just the max potential achieved during that period by these maps.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I did a writeup for social media with my thoughts if that's of any help @Tsunami - text and map below:


51584135724_67d083fa18_b.jpg


Even though obviously not every person in the coloured areas on these maps is going to get a big storm or good rainfall, this is a very potent setup and likely to cause a widespread thunderstorm outbreak across large sections of SE, E, and N Australia on Thursday into part of Friday, with severe storms highly likely in at least some portions of these areas...... some could also get a particularly nasty supercell (with damaging to briefly destructive winds, large to locally giant hail, and bursts of intense rainfall). These types of setups can also sometimes produce the odd destructive tornado in the more favoured areas although not all of them do.

Showers/storms could start affecting some portions of SEQ (the SE Coast district) as early as overnight tonight or Thursday morning if the strong steering winds above us can manage to drag inland storms to the coast..... so don't be surprised if some of you get an abrupt early wakeup call from thunder or some downpours.

Although the bulk of any rainfall in SEQ should mainly favour Thursday morning (the activity in the afternoon being more in the form of shorter bursts) as well as Friday morning, some shower or storms activity will be possible at any time of day or night until Friday in SEQ. This is due to the increasing background destabilisation from the upper trough (showers may occasionally tend to rain areas as well)..... but it's not going to be storming or raining for every hour of the day.


TECHNICAL NOTES:

Most aspects of this setup are highly supportive of widespread storms in the more favoured areas with a number being severe. No shortage of shear, instability and moisture. This is also combined with some directional and speed shear in the lowest level of the atmosphere which means the potential for a localised tornado somewhere can’t be ruled out.

But it's still definitely worth keeping a few potential complicating factors in the back of the mind i.e. in the areas where there’s too much pre-existing morning cloud cover, rainfall, or storms that hangs around well into the afternoon without any clearer breaks, storms later in the day are unlikely to be as severe or widespread.

Also, as is often the case with these high-end multiday setups, there's always the possibility that in some areas, there's too many showers/storms which mass up into a cloudy rainy band early on (taking the edge off the severity of storms in those areas)…. and last into the next morning which then affects the potential the next day in those areas.

Also keep an eye on the rear edge of any cloudbands moving out of an area since storms can often fire up in that zone, even if that cloudband's been sitting over that area in the morning.

Friday afternoon is also a complicated one to forecast for SEQ because a) if showers and storms last into Friday morning, we'd have to have enough patches of clearer sky to then open up to help with heating for storms and b) if the drier westerlies sweep right through to the coastal fringe early on, this would mean most storm potential ends before the afternoon.

This last point is particularly critical because even the tiniest of shifts in the boundary between the dry westerlies and moist northerlies ahead of them can make all the difference between big crisp-looking cumulonimbus clouds exploding along the coastline (often nicknamed "nukes" in weather-speak) and nothing at all.

At this stage, guidance suggests storm potential may become more localised as we head further into the afternoon before dissipating but it'll need to be monitored closely just in case this changes, or if lingering moisture with the upper level trough and cold air aloft can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Here’s a couple of thunderstorm potential maps generated by data from one of the models for the period covering the combined Thursday to Friday period (both maps are for that same period). But remember, storms won’t affect every coloured area on both days – this is just the max potential achieved during that period by these maps.
Ken
thanks for that analysis
very detailed and much appreciated
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Wasn't pleasant walking the dog in 26 deg dp 23.7 deg and 89 percent humidity this afternoon, dog started off ok almost taking me for a walk but had enough after about 20mins so did I . Was cloudy too this afternoon...

This feels like February humidity. Air feels damp.

GFS has ESE winds coming back from next Tues to Thurs and temps dropping a few deg again...

I'd rather a ESE wind than NE ,

Exercise is far easier in drier air ... even if it was a dp of 18 deg would be much easier ...

Looks like we finally may get something next Monday or Tuesday... though the models could and will change .
 

Flowin

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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
The last three consecutive runs of access C have been quite consistent for favouring an area about the latitude of a line from Toowoomba to Brisbane and an isolated patch near Maroochydore.
I have been quite surprised at the consistency because generally I have a view that getting the location correct is one of the most difficult things for numerical weather prediction models. IMO The models are good and getting always better at possible weather in a region but nailing the location is the big challenge.
so I will be particularly interested in what the next few cycles of access C show and what actually happens.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Drizzle in the mid to late morning. Light showers during tonight. Near average temperature became slightly cool from the mid morning and cool in the afternoon as the temperature rose a little slowly to the maximum temperature in the middle of the day. From the mid morning to the mid afternoon the temperature was rather variable, which fell slowly in the afternoon before falling a little quicker later in the afternoon and early tonight while easing to slightly cool in the late afternoon and near average tonight. During the rest of tonight the temperature fell slowly becoming slightly warm later tonight. Dew point was slightly above average from the morning that was generally stable that rose slightly during tonight and stabilised later tonight.

Relative humidity fell a little slowly in the morning that was high from the mid morning and eased to moderately high in the late morning. As the relative humidity generally rose slowly in the afternoon it eased became high and moderately high from later in the afternoon. During early tonight the relative humidity eased to slightly above average before stabilising late tonight. Light E to SE winds in the mid morning with some S to SE winds tending to E to NE from the middle of the day with some E to SE late tonight.

Last 24 hours:
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Seabreezes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
440
3,809
263
South West Rocks, NSW
The showers overnight and into this morning were much heavier than forecast, and helped Nambucca Heads receive 105mm in the 24hrs to 9am, with 50-80mm falls elsewhere at BOM gauges in the Coffs and the lower Nambucca areas.

47.4mm fell here in the 24hrs to 9am. 4.0mm since 9am from a bit of continuing shower activity in the morning, which has put us above our October average (of 91.7mm).
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,684
33,812
363
Brisbane
Aaaaand right on cue, here's that morning thundery rain! Going exactly according to plan so far.

I've been getting some lightning and thunder here since I woke up around 4:30am and it's been raining steadily ever since then (it's become heavy again as I type this).

Severe thunderstorm warnings have been in effect since this activity first started on the Downs last night.

At a quick glance, I suspect this current activity still won't prevent some additional shower and storm activity redeveloping later today in some sections of our region, some possibly severe, but will have a closer look soon in case I've missed something.

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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,195
5,735
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Still nothing here ... is it just this area of Qld where the models seem to get lower the closer the forecast "rain event' gets... Monday is now halved if we even get anything. 15 mm this month the average is around 50mm... hopefully we can get close to that !

Looks like a nice change from humid NE winds to cooler maybe slightly less humid SE winds finally ... this site seems to get wind directions patterns correct... though no idea when it says say Tuesday 33kmhr SE winds is that the average wind speed ? at a particular time.. doesn't say...

Was a sprinkle 15 sec shower this morning and also was a yuk 23.7 deg min temp. Rocky even got 22.7 .deg

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