Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,338
9,099
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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
Wynnum North....Cracked 100mm at 0840. Full report 0900.
20211014_084235.jpg
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,684
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Brisbane
Hope I'm not bringing this thread down with complaints about lack of rain... gives some perspective i guess? Qld is a big state.

Not at all. I for one, don't mind one little bit. In fact, I like it when people are realists and include the bad stuff as well, not just 100% contrived rose-coloured glasses type of posts all the time.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,338
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363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

THURSDAY 14 OCTOBER 2021 - TIME 0900

CURRENT TEMP..........17.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........96%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......17C
CURRENT WIND.......ENE 9Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....10KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1013.1Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......3/8 Fs, 5/8 Sc, 8/8 As
CURRENT WEATHER..Slight continuous rain.

RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY...101.0mm ( 91mm since 0330 this morning )

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........26.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......17.6C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+1.05C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....17.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1012.3Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...E 31Kph at 0549.
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Slight drizzle rain mid morning Wednesay. Slight showers developed late Wednesday evening. Rain areas with heavier showers commenced 0330 Thursday. A series of thunderstorm cells passed through from 0600 to 0715,
before easing to slight rain till observation time at 0900.

OCTOBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................158.8mm
OCTOBER AVERAGE RAINFALL.....................94.4mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1295.8mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF OCTOBER..........921.9mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm

Note annual total now close to 1300mm..
20211014_090448.jpg
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,064
11,498
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 14 Oct 2021
Time: 9:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 16.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 25.3 C
Min Ground Temp: 16.1 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 60.5 mm

Temperature: 17.4 C
Relative Humidity: 97 %
Dew Point: 16.9 C
MSL Pressure: 1013.1 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 4km to 9km - Moderate Visibility
Cloud Cover: 8/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 13/10/21: Mostly cloudy with Cu, Sc and Ns clouds. A brief light shower in the middle of the early hour. Drizzle in the mid to late morning. Light showers during the evening. The temperature dropped slightly in the first hour of the day close to average before the temperature was stable and then rose slowly during the rest of the early hours that became slightly warm. In the morning the temperature rose that eased to near average, then eased to slightly cool from the mid morning and cool in the afternoon as the temperature rose a little slowly to the maximum temperature in the middle of the day. From the mid morning to the mid afternoon the temperature was rather variable, which fell slowly in the afternoon before falling a little quicker later in the afternoon and early in the evening while easing to slightly cool in the late afternoon and near average in the evening. During the rest of the evening the temperature fell slowly becoming slightly warm later in the evening. Dew point rose slowly in the early hours close to average becoming slightly above average from the second half of the early hours before rising during the morning. From the mid morning the dew point was generally stable that rose slightly during the evening and stabilised later in the evening. Relative humidity was near average that rose a little at the start of the day, became stable before falling slowly from the early morning. Relative humidity became high from the mid morning and eased to moderately high in the late morning. As the relative humidity generally rose slowly in the afternoon it eased became high and moderately high from later in the afternoon. During early evening the relative humidity eased to slightly above average before stabilising late in the evening. Light S to SW winds with some W to SW winds from early becoming S to SE from early in the morning and S to SE becoming E to SE winds in the mid morning with some S to SE winds tending to E to NE from the middle of the day with some E to SE late in the evening.

Today: Light showers accompanied with light rain early in the day with moderate falls from the middle of the early hours. Moderate to heavy falls late in the early hours with a moderate thunderstorm (5:30am to 5:50am) before light to moderate rain and showers this morning while easing. Warm early in the day became hot late in the early hours as the temperature fell slowly from early that then rose from the middle of the early hours and fell briefly late in the early hours with the thunderstorm. The temperature rose slowly from the early morning easing to cool. Moderately high dew point from early that rose slowly in the early hours before briefly falling quickly with the thunderstorm. During this morning the relative humidity have rose easing to slightly above average early this morning and near average during this morning. Relative humidity have been near average becoming high during this morning that was elevated and rising slowly from the start of the day. Mostly calm winds in the early hours with some N to NE winds and some variable winds later in the early hours before light SW to ESE winds with the thunderstorm and afterwards in the early morning. Some calm winds from the early morning with S to SW or variable winds becoming N to NE in the last half hour.

rain 2021-10-14 morning.PNG
 
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Flowin

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Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I still wonder what tomorrow could have been had the timing of the dryline been better. I know we'll probably see some storms during the morning but had those ingredients all come together in the late-afternoon...wow.
I am not sure if you are looking at GFS or others, but from what I can see (and if I am interpreting correctly) GFS has the dry line moving through earlier than EC and Access G (the latter tend to be more mid afternoon?)
dewpoint--surface_bne_t16_00-042-2021101312z GFS.png

dewpoint--surface_bne_t16_00-042-2021101312z ACC.png
 

MegaMatch

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Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
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where
I am not sure if you are looking at GFS or others, but from what I can see (and if I am interpreting correctly) GFS has the dry line moving through earlier than EC and Access G (the latter tend to be more mid afternoon?)
Just compared GFS, EC and ACCESS-G and yes you make a good observation. GFS is a tad faster than the other two. If you look at the 850s RH (which I personally use as a good indication of moisture depth up through the upper part of the lower-levels), GFS is rapidly drying out by 1pm whereas EC is literally right ON the coast (and even then, given speed-shear tomorrow, any storms that do form right on that coastal tongue during the afternoon...blink and you'll miss them).

It definitely looks safer the further north you go but even then I'd much prefer a dryline which sat further inland during the afternoon.
 

Weathertraveller

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Jan 23, 2020
247
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263
Northern Gold Coast
Bsch is excited about 4am tommorrow morning

gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2021101318z.fcst-202110150400z.ts.aus.null.0.png
Well Tsunami, I don't like getting woken up at 3.30am by loud thunder, I'm tired already after my lack of sleep early this morning and it's not even midday, So I'm hoping BSCH don't get too excited about storms hitting at 4am. Skies still cloudy here, a couple of tiny bits of blue, and 56mm total from the storms and rain this morning.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,684
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363
Brisbane
Check out Monday. :eek:

Yeah, and Tuesday as well. Encouragingly, both EC and GFS are supportive of lightning.

Shear currently looks a bit modest for Monday but could still be just enough there to be supportive of severes.

Shear picks up a lot by Tuesday although instability moderates a bit, but good shear can work magic even with modest instability.
 

Sandbank

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
644
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Caloundra South and Stanthorpe
Not at all. I for one, don't mind one little bit. In fact, I like it when people are realists and include the bad stuff as well, not just 100% contrived rose-coloured glasses type of posts all the time.
Jeepers KK.....did someone wake up on the wrong side of the barometer? Having regard to what has happened in the world over the last couple of years and the doom and gloom that has accompanied it.....I reckon a bit of positivity is a great thing. 7mm to 9am at Stanthorpe :D
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
Jeepers KK.....did someone wake up on the wrong side of the barometer? Having regard to what has happened in the world over the last couple of years and the doom and gloom that has accompanied it.....I reckon a bit of positivity is a great thing. 7mm to 9am at Stanthorpe :D

Haha I don't have a problem with positivity.... just when it's always contrived for the sake of it e.g. people who make out like the rainfall deficiencies in CQ/WBB are some trivial matter. Some things are good, some things are bad, that's just the way it goes.
 

Weathertraveller

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Jan 23, 2020
247
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263
Northern Gold Coast

PlumbBob

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Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
415
3,874
263
Molendinar
Bsch is excited about 4am tommorrow morning

gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2021101318z.fcst-202110150400z.ts.aus.null.0.png
Very interesting stuff @Tsunami, I was looking earlier and notice stormcast has 'Solid' colour all through the early hrs tomoz morn "Gulp" so, I goes checks 'Windy - EC' and on the contrary not quite as inspired but still going for good action none the less. All up-in-the-air in reality, When, Where, How much etc,, looking forward to it all the same..
---------------
Noice reading, forcasts and reports to all again, top stuff !
Think my 'tipper guage is out-of-whack' only showing 30mm for this event last few days, fortunately I put two jugs out in yard for extra measure, both reading 85-90mm so far here, 40mm on Mon to 9am Tues,,, a couple/few mm Tues to 9am Weds and another 40-45mm to 9am this morn..

HavaGoodN & be safe everyone !!
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,684
33,812
363
Brisbane
1634184843577.png


1634184900873.png


ACCESS-C (most of its recent runs) seems to be on the money so far in its scenario of confining most of the activity towards the Sunshine Coast with much more isolated elsewhere.

In the 2nd image above via WZ, I've circled an area upstream of us where it's cloud-free enough to see where there's suppressed convective cloud development (as also evidenced by the flat layer of stratocumulus around there).... probably due to all the cloud/rain/thunder this morning.
Dewpoints in the region are reasonable but temps are still on the coolish side (although they have been climbing a bit).
Looks a bit better in northern parts of our region and in some parts of the WBB though.
 

Lani

One of Us
Jul 4, 2019
223
1,533
263
Jimbour
1634184843577.png


1634184900873.png


ACCESS-C (most of its recent runs) seems to be on the money so far in its scenario of confining most of the activity towards the Sunshine Coast with much more isolated elsewhere.

In the 2nd image above via WZ, I've circled an area upstream of us where it's cloud-free enough to see where there's suppressed convective cloud development (as also evidenced by the flat layer of stratocumulus around there).... probably due to all the cloud/rain/thunder this morning.
Dewpoints in the region are reasonable but temps are still on the coolish side (although they have been climbing a bit).
Looks a bit better in northern parts of our region and in some parts of the WBB though.
Do you think there's still a chance of development further out West Ken or think it's done?
Cheers :)
 

Nic Bri

One of Us
Jul 5, 2019
446
3,259
263
Mount Gravatt East
So much water from this mornings storm at my Mums house a downpipe had backed up and overflowed under the eaves flooding into her dining room. I had to totally remove it and unclog about 20cm of solid compacted leaf debris from the bottom. After telling me I was a 'clever girl' shes now all good to go for this arvos round of storms. Bring it on! :D
 

DarkandStormy

Addicted
Jul 5, 2019
40
314
133
Kilkivan, Southern Burnett, QLD
Gympie cell about 10 minutes ago below. The rest is just a mess, apart from a decent cell near Childers which quickly collapsed once it entered the cooler air near the coast.

PXL_20211014_050050143.jpg
Considering the sun has been out for most of the day I thought it maybe our turn this afternoon for some decent action. The WV loop has a dry slot at the moment over SEQ, NE NSW. Perhaps when the vapor streams in again which its looking that things might pick up later ?
seqldnensw_wv_latest.jpg
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,233
14,906
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
For any one that's interested, that little cell up by Gympie, the sneaky little bastard that changed direction and caught me off guard, had a little bit of hail in it and dropped about 32mm in 20 or so minutes.
thanks for reporting that. noticed the radar went black for a moment in that cell and was wondering if there was hail in it.
 
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