Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
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thanks for reporting that. noticed the radar went black for a moment in that cell and was wondering if there was hail in it.

Amazing cell ! The hook echo (and velocity couplet) on it was impressive. It's no surprise the word "tornado" was included in the warning.

Also some amazing pics coming in of some of the storms around Sydney - example above.
Lots of photos of large to giant hail from some parts of NSW as well.
 

WarwickEye2Sky

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Jul 5, 2019
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Warwick
Hope I'm not bringing this thread down with complaints about lack of rain... gives some perspective i guess? Qld is a big state.
I hear you Vinny. We have only had 14mm over the past few days. The month is nearly half over and we are running behind again in the rainfall department. I believe normal is over 70mm for October. Ever since the big rains in July, we have been well below average. I guess the month is not over yet, but the next 7 days looks pretty lacklustre.
 

Weathertraveller

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Jan 23, 2020
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Northern Gold Coast
Bit of action about
Dont see SE qld getting much till the early hours
Another sleepless night on the way i feel....an educated geuss however.

What ever happened to the good ol days, stinking hot day. Widespread storms with a big cold southerly change, few and far between nowa days
I agree Tsunami, was just pondering if I should batten down some outside pool furniture before nightfall. I can't see anything much reaching us until the early hours, and no way will I feel like getting up then. All this media stuff about giant hail and strong winds might be for some areas, but hope it isn't just south of Brisbane where I am on the Logan River. It's considerably warmer this afternoon here with blue skies and only a few clouds. Be interesting to see what happens during the night.
 

Tsunami

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Jul 6, 2019
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Cleveland SE QLD
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Amazing cell ! The hook echo (and velocity couplet) on it was impressive. It's no surprise the word "tornado" was included in the warning.

Also some amazing pics coming in of some of the storms around Sydney - example above.
Lots of photos of large to giant hail from some parts of NSW as well.
Shit..thats all
 
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Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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So much in the last few years we've had a Queensland ridge and coral sea troughing. Seems for the last few months we've still seen some ridging along the Queensland Coast, but not much troughing activity out in the Coral/Tasman. Moreso there has been troughing to our west linking with plenty of low pressure systems over SE Australia. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues into summer, with a winter pattern these troughs tend to be a bit on the dry side with a lot of westerly winds, but if we see troughing on a similar axis as the highs move south we will get a lot more NE winds and lots of rain.

slp_90b.fnl.gif


Monday seems to bring us such a system with a trough to the west and NE winds along the coast. Some hint of that classic la nina pattern of easterlies in the tropical Pacific dipping onto the Qld Coast.

EC Monday 2pm.PNG


Later in the week it does develop that dreaded Coral Sea troughing, but towards the end of the run the resulting low pressure system moves a bit towards the coast, but south of us and merges with the inland trough angling into the Tasman Sea.

EC Fri.PNG


Fingers crossed that this is good signs for the approaching wet season.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
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I had a quick glance at some forecast soundings and precip fields this evening and they did seem to hint at the chance of either some overnight activity coming through and/or a narrow band sweeping through here later in the morning/middle of the day on Friday.

Looking at the storms that have started to develop quickly over parts of the Downs now, makes me wonder if that 1st scenario is on its way to eventuating. The development so far almost looks like a carbon copy of this time last night... pretty much the same place, the same look, etc.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Rain adnd showers cleared in the mid morning. A light few drops of rain in the late afternoon. In the mid morning the temperature eased further to cold with the temperature rising slowly during the morning that was stable at times. In the middle of the day the temperature stabilised before rising through to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon that was cool. As the temperature fell during the rest of the afternoon before falling slowly in the late afternoon that eased to near average. During tonight the temperature was stable that moved from slightly warm early tonight to hot late tonight. Dew point was slightly above average from the mid morning that generally rose slowly in the morning, became generally stable in the afternoon before rising from the late afternoon. During tonight the dew point became moderately high before stabilising late tonight.

Relative humidity was very high from the mid morning while falling slowly, eased to high in the afternoon while generally falling in the first half of the afternoon before rising from later in the afternoon. Moderately high relative humidity eased to slightly above average during tonight while rising before stabilising late tonight. Light N to ENE winds in the morning, NNE to ENE in the afternoon, light E to NE from the late afternoon and became NNE to NNW late tonight.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-10-14.PNG

hum 2021-10-14.PNG
wind dir 2021-10-14.PNG
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane


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What an incredible system so far. Producing severe weather at any time of day or night!

Yep, these types of setups are great for being able to cause severe weather at any time of day or night, including early morning.

Speaking of which, bunches of showers and very lightning-active storms racing down across parts of SEQ at the moment. Severe thunderstorm warnings also in effect. Also above is a video of the tornado that hit near Armidale last night !
 
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Weathertraveller

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Jan 23, 2020
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Northern Gold Coast
The current storm to the south west of my place is moving quickly. I went outside to a light sprinkle and saw the low clouds flying past at a great speed. and lightning in the distance. The wind picked up here but that's all. Seemed to also miss the one around 1.30am which I noticed alerts were received at 1.38 am. I slept through it so couldn't have been much here, has rained but only 3 mm.
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
So much in the last few years we've had a Queensland ridge and coral sea troughing. Seems for the last few months we've still seen some ridging along the Queensland Coast, but not much troughing activity out in the Coral/Tasman. Moreso there has been troughing to our west linking with plenty of low pressure systems over SE Australia. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues into summer, with a winter pattern these troughs tend to be a bit on the dry side with a lot of westerly winds, but if we see troughing on a similar axis as the highs move south we will get a lot more NE winds and lots of rain.

slp_90b.fnl.gif


Monday seems to bring us such a system with a trough to the west and NE winds along the coast. Some hint of that classic la nina pattern of easterlies in the tropical Pacific dipping onto the Qld Coast.

EC Monday 2pm.PNG


Later in the week it does develop that dreaded Coral Sea troughing, but towards the end of the run the resulting low pressure system moves a bit towards the coast, but south of us and merges with the inland trough angling into the Tasman Sea.

EC Fri.PNG


Fingers crossed that this is good signs for the approaching wet season.

I've noticed up here in Yeppoon compared to last year NE winds much more frequent in October, last year we had weeks on end of SE winds for the back half of the year.. into December then January before dropping off in February (probably why summer was milder initially and drier i dunno) though can't remember which winds are better at bringing rain... all i know is SE winds are a tad cooler in the warmer months and almost too cold in the winter months.
---

Changing topic
Our local member was going on about on Facebook how the warning came out for storms for Rockhampton after the storms and how the local BOM office is overgrown with vines now and it's run in Brisbane . She was saying if we had a local office the warning would have been issued before not after the event and help people prepare or something and how it's now run out of someone in an office in Brisbane.
 

Multiversity

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Jul 29, 2019
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Yep, these types of setups are great for being able to cause severe weather at any time of day or night, including early morning.

Speaking of which, bunches of showers and very lightning-active storms racing down across parts of SEQ at the moment. Severe thunderstorm warnings also in effect. Also above is a video of the tornado that hit near Armidale last night !
KK - would you be able to give a brief summary of set-up for this bout of severe weather? You go by CAPES? Shear? V cold uppers?
 

Retired Weather Man

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Jul 4, 2019
1,338
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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

FRIDAY 15 OCTOBER 2021 - TIME 0855

CURRENT TEMP..........24.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........83%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......22C
CURRENT WIND......NNW 14Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1008.5Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......2/8 Cu, 1/8 Cb, 4/8 Ac, 2/8 Ci
CURRENT WEATHER..Nearby showers.

RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...4.4mm ( Now over 1300mm for the year to date )

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........25.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......17.8C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.40C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....17.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1010.7Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...N 29Kph at 0515.
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..Rain periods mid morning Thursday, easing by lunchtime. Overnight and early morning showers Friday with a brief thunderstorm passing to the NW at 0620.

OCTOBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................163.2mm
OCTOBER AVERAGE RAINFALL.....................94.4mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1300.2mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF OCTOBER..........921.9mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,064
11,498
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 15 Oct 2021
Time: 9:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.8 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 24.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 18.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.2 mm

Temperature: 26.3 C
Relative Humidity: 64 %
Dew Point: 19 C
MSL Pressure: 1007.8 hPa
Wind Speed: 13 kph - gentle breeze
Wind Direction: NW

Present Weather: Clouds generally forming or developing during the preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 14/10/21: Mostly cloudy with Cu, Sc and Ns clouds and partly cloudy at times in the afternoon. Light showers accompanied with light rain early in the day with moderate falls from the middle of the early hours. Moderate to heavy falls late in the early hours with a moderate thunderstorm before light to moderate rain and showers in morning while easing, and cleared in the mid morning. A light few drops of rain in the late afternoon. Warm early in the day became hot late in the early hours as the temperature fell slowly from early that then rose from the middle of the early hours and fell briefly late in the early hours with the thunderstorm. The temperature rose slowly from the early morning that was stable at times easing to cool and further to cold from the mid morning. In the middle of the day the temperature stabilised before rising through to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon that was cool. As the temperature fell during the rest of the afternoon the temperature eased to near average before falling slowly in the late afternoon. During the evening the temperature was stable that moved from slightly warm early in the evening to hot late in the evening. Moderately high dew point from early that rose slowly in the early hours before briefly falling quickly with the thunderstorm. During the morning the dew point rose easing to slightly above average early in the morning and to near average during the morning. Dew point was slightly above average from the mid morning that generally rose slowly in the morning, became generally stable in the afternoon before rising from the late afternoon. During the evening the dew point became moderately high before stabilising late in the evening. Relative humidity was near average becoming high during the morning that was elevated and rising slowly from the start of the day. Relative humidity was very high from the mid morning while falling slowly, eased to high in the afternoon while generally falling in the first half of the afternoon before rising from later in the afternoon. Moderately high relative humidity eased to slightly above average during the evening while rising before stabilising late in the evening. Mostly calm winds in the early hours with some N to NE winds and some variable winds later in the early hours before light SW to ESE winds with the thunderstorm and afterwards in the early morning. Some calm winds from the early morning with S to SW or variable winds becoming N to ENE winds in the morning, NNE to ENE in the afternoon, light E to NE from the late afternoon and became NNE to NNW late in the evening.

Today: Distant thunder from storm passing to the south at 5am. A brief light shower this morning. Hot from the start of the day before easing to slightly warm during this morning, with the temperature rising slightly at the start of the day, fell very slowly until the early morning before rising during this morning. In the past half hour the temperature fell slightly with a shower before rising again. Dew point have remained moderately high which fell very slowly from the start of the day before rising a little during this morning before falling in the past half hour. Relative humidity has been near average becoming slightly below average briefly early this morning before returning to near average in the last hour. This is as the relative humidity was stable or rose very slowly from early before falling during this morning. Light N to NW winds in the first 2 hours of the day, then the wind was calm before NNW to NE winds late in the early morning, During this morning there has been N to NW winds with some NNE winds.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Dry air already penetrating through the Downs, and the westerlies are even quite strong. Like I said, just that extra few hours delay of the dryline could have made all the difference today especially in terms of thunderstorm severity.
Radar - red circles locations where AWS is now showing single digit dew point. Blue at Ipswich dew point still at 16.


Capture.PNG
Pretty much aligned with Access C 18Z for timing (surface level). Same Access C run has it only passing through Maryborough beyond midnight (surface and 850 hpa levels) - so maybe still some chance for you @MegaMatch ?
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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363
Brisbane
KK - would you be able to give a brief summary of set-up for this bout of severe weather? You go by CAPES? Shear? V cold uppers?

Basically the things I mentioned in my summary the other day i.e. for tornadoes, the combo of traditional tornado ingredients were evident in the forecast soundings with low lifted condensation levels, strong directional and speed shear in the critical lowest 1km of the atmosphere leading to favourable storm-relative helicity, and good instability.

For severe storms in general, strong shear, good instability (aided by the colder air aloft) and upper low/troughing, and good moisture.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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where
Pretty much aligned with Access C 18Z for timing (surface level). Same Access C run has it only passing through Maryborough beyond midnight (surface and 850 hpa levels) - so maybe still some chance for you @MegaMatch ?
It's possible, but still very risky by that time I'd say. I wouldn't be surprised to see some big 'nukes' as Ken called them the other day just off Fraser Island tonight though.
 
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