Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Multiversity

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Jul 29, 2019
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Basically the things I mentioned in my summary the other day i.e. for tornadoes, the combo of traditional tornado ingredients were evident in the forecast soundings with low lifted condensation levels, strong directional and speed shear in the critical lowest 1km of the atmosphere leading to favourable storm-relative helicity, and good instability.

For severe storms in general, strong shear, good instability (aided by the colder air aloft) and upper low/troughing, and good moisture.
Terrific - I needed a short list to aid a slowly failing memory - thanks
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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It's possible, but still very risky by that time I'd say. I wouldn't be surprised to see some big 'nukes' as Ken called them the other day just off Fraser Island tonight though.
Latest STW at 9:24 says "Weather situation: A pre-frontal trough and associated dryline will continue to shift eastward over southeast Queensland, forecast to move off the far southern coast around midday. This system will anchor itself across areas over and to the north of the Wide Bay and Burnett during the afternoon period."
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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Latest STW at 9:24 says "Weather situation: A pre-frontal trough and associated dryline will continue to shift eastward over southeast Queensland, forecast to move off the far southern coast around midday. This system will anchor itself across areas over and to the north of the Wide Bay and Burnett during the afternoon period."
Problem is, I'm not sure how much convective energy will be left by this afternoon given all the activity around this morning. The sun can't even sneak back out here at least. Just have to wait and see.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Problem is, I'm not sure how much convective energy will be left by this afternoon given all the activity around this morning. The sun can't even sneak back out here at least. Just have to wait and see.
Access C predictions for cloudiness around and not far inland of your location for this afternoon looks good and also for cape later in the day. Just a model though and nature don't always follow the models
 

Nic Bri

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Jul 5, 2019
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Mount Gravatt East
Got an Aerodrome warning for Archie half an hour ago. Although I have just noticed it was issued at 7.36 but was only forwarded by ybaf at 9.15 :D
Edit - Thunder heard here just now.

20211015_093649.jpg
 

Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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Problem is, I'm not sure how much convective energy will be left by this afternoon given all the activity around this morning. The sun can't even sneak back out here at least. Just have to wait and see.
There will be a steady feed of warm moist air in from the north, unless further storms form further north to cut off the supply. If the dryline anchors in one spot I could imagine continuous thunderstorms and quite heavy rainfall. Cloud and continuous release of energy vs build up and release all at once would probably limit other aspects of severity.
 
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Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Looks like we miss out today?

IDQ21041.png
No Vinny - that just the current warning. The STW you got that from says next warning will be after 12pm. BoM app suggests for Yeppoon that storms are in the afternoon.
Edit: this is the one you want Vinny for the whole day period. But note this is quite old now (issued just before midday yesterday) so write off southern SEQ as we past it now.
FBo6AM4WYAAhIEd.jpg
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
The average temp for October is 26 deg , it's not usually over 30 deg that often at this time of year...

On the plus side at least the dew point and rel humidity is lower ...

Which makes me wonder.. isn't the air too "dry" now for storms... or have I missed something ... there are so many posts on here in the last 24 hrs lol.

CURRENTLY AT YEPPOON​

24-Hour Graph
Temperature​
30.7°C
nav_trend_up.gif
Dew Point​
19.7°C
nav_trend_up.gif
Feels Like​
30.6°C
Relative Humidity​
52%
Wind​
n_0.gif
N 18km/h
nav_trend_down.gif
Wind Gusts​
22km/h
 

Flowin

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Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Not quite yet - hail that's reached severe criteria (just) has been observed in some places just north of Brisbane a short time ago.
But not too long to go before most of it contracts out to sea.
yes tis why I said southern SEQ
noticed some black core in that cell that went over the airport and headed towards Stradbroke. WeatherWatch 3D radar indicated height up to 10km.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
The Meteye still says beta?

Says Yeppoon weather (beta) why does it say beta, is the Meteye still in a testing phase?

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1634258112525.png

Nah I wouldn't pay much attention to the beta word. Just that no-one's bothered to change it from when it really was at beta stage for location forecasts extracted via Meteye. It's similar to some other products which are labelled as being in pilot or beta stage but no-one's bothered to change them e.g. the thunderstorm tracker for SEQ on the Bureau's website which is still labelled as pilot, even after all these years.
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Ok thanks.

It's so crazy how we can have a dp of 24 deg and tomorrow we're expecting a dp of 5 deg and humidity in the 20 percent range... guess that is nothing unusual for October , though don't recall it like this last year.

Then the humidity sort of comes back but not to the same extreme, then Tues- Thurs at least looks like cooler E then ESE winds , dryer air , comfortable i guess but less chance of any rain or above average nights and day temps .

Bit of changeability is a good thing. Couldn't live in a climate with humidity high non stop in the wet season aka Darwin.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
Ok thanks.

It's so crazy how we can have a dp of 24 deg and tomorrow we're expecting a dp of 5 deg and humidity in the 20 percent range... guess that is nothing unusual for October , though don't recall it like this last year.

Then the humidity sort of comes back but not to the same extreme, then Tues- Thurs at least looks like cooler E then ESE winds , dryer air , comfortable i guess but less chance of any rain or above average nights and day temps .

Bit of changeability is a good thing. Couldn't live in a climate with humidity high non stop in the wet season aka Darwin.

Darwin actually gets fairly dry (relatively) during their dry season. Average 3pm RH there during July is 37% with dewpoint of 12.3C.
 

Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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Surface dew points holding in high teens near the coast on the sunshine coast, but cloud has cleared substantially. Suspect that low levels just above the surface have dried substantially as winds become much more westerly at 950-850hp layer. Sun out and surface heating with thin layer of sea breeze driven moisture near the surface? Possibly some further storms forming very close to the coast for SEQ depending on how the dryline progresses? If nothing else would expect some pretty mushrooms that reach precipitation size just off the coast.

For Brisbane and Gold Coast dew points dropping at surface very close to surface and more likely to be all over in my opinion.
 

PlumbBob

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Jul 5, 2019
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Molendinar
Groovy few days & quite riveting in deed, , totally enjoyed the Cells passing close-by, around and over during all hrs this morn. Also starting to obtain a good sense with the time between propergation areas/lines over the course of days from this System,,, espeacially with the Storm-Casts compared to EC yesterday afternoon during the night & into morning, the conditions at the time where what was actually occuring and had occured was unfavourable, but a 1/2 doz hrs later,, she had changed enough for another good round..
Awesome weather capers !!
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Approx 100mm for the event since start of the week over three main sessions, good time between each for some deeper soaking to be had,, I would normally expect some substantial humidity with sun shining tomorow and next but think these westerlies (Already here on the GC) are going to keep it rather comfortable...
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Radar Snip below showing the angle view (for folowing Photo) to the East from Ashmore @ approx 11am this morn..
Rain storms have gone away, Please come back next week,, After the week end :cool:

L Radar.JPG

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Edit 1: Also the Lightning Concentration counts last 24hrs, quite impressive off the NSW Coast :thumbs:
Light 1.JPG
Light 2.JPG


Edit 2: Awesome to see some fair dinkum action your way @MegaMatch & hope it continues through this season for you, must be happy man, you'd nearly forgotton what its like yeah/no ,,
 
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MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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That's Australia for you, from cracks in the ground to river flowing on the block solid rain now best for a long time. Hope the frogs in the rain gauge remember how to swim.
Yeah this is great. This is how I remember it back when I was younger. 2 storms here this morning, can't remember the last time we've had one morning storm let alone 2 of them. And those late evening storms we had a few weeks back (even though we missed out on the second lot). Yet last year I think we had about 2 good storms all season.

33mm from the lot this morning, and the sun is out!
edit: manual gauge has recorded 38mm. Ugh. Back out to investigate the Rainwise I guess.
 

Itsjustme

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Jul 4, 2019
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Pacific Haven. Wide Bay
Yeah this is great. This is how I remember it back when I was younger. 2 storms here this morning, can't remember the last time we've had one morning storm let alone 2 of them. And those late evening storms we had a few weeks back (even though we missed out on the second lot). Yet last year I think we had about 2 good storms all season.

33mm from the lot this morning, and the sun is out!
edit: manual gauge has recorded 38mm. Ugh. Back out to investigate the Rainwise I guess.
Wind still now, but I think more to come for here. It din't. Last long but 20mm out of that I think it's primed now for the next bit I already see coming.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Yeah this is great. This is how I remember it back when I was younger. 2 storms here this morning, can't remember the last time we've had one morning storm let alone 2 of them. And those late evening storms we had a few weeks back (even though we missed out on the second lot). Yet last year I think we had about 2 good storms all season.

33mm from the lot this morning, and the sun is out!
edit: manual gauge has recorded 38mm. Ugh. Back out to investigate the Rainwise I guess.
latest access C (00z) maintaining the earlier run forecast of potential for more storms your way late this evening
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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I would say those cells on the Sunshine Coast are battling dry air atm.

@Flowin, I was just going to make a comment on tonight. Yep, that sounding clearly shows it's dried out above the surface by then out there...however I've noticed over the past few days that most models have tried to form a second round of cells tonight over the Fraser Coast or just offshore on Fraser Island. Guessing it's this tiny area of the coast that's still a chance of something tonight, but I'm still not holding my breath. Still, I think there could be a decent lightshow on/off Fraser Is tonight, though storms will be moving east very fast if they do form.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane




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So its all over for brisbane area, just interesting how humidity dropped to 30% but now risen back to a high 60%

I'm assuming you're referring to either your place or Brisbane Airport @Tsunami ?
If so, that's a temporary and localised seabreeze effect along the extreme fringe of the coast. It's in a very shallow layer. The CBD's been below 50% since around 10:30am and it's now down to 21% as I type this. But places beside the water like Brisbane Airport have been up around 60 to 70% due to the seabreeze.

Anyway above are some images. First one is of at least THREE funnels and possibly four (zoom into the lower centre-right of the photo) as severe storms swept across parts of the Northern Tablelands last night.
At least one of the funnels touched down near the Armidale area to become a tornado and caused significant damage to houses, etc - see second bunch of images for some examples. There was also significant damage in some other separate parts of the area so it's conceivable that multiple funnels touched down to become additional tornadoes or some of the damage was from microbursts.

The third image is one I took of my yard this morning. Things are looking fairly green. And yes I know, my clothes line has seen better days!

The fourth image is of the latest 72hr totals up to 9am today. Fifth image is of past 72hr lightning over SE QLD/NE NSW.
 

Vinny

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Maybe it's one of those events where things pop up out of nowhere on the radar and what wasn't there before now is ?

Still says at 307pm

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bundaberg, Gladstone, Fraser Island, Yeppoon, Ingham and Innisfail.
 

Slovenski

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Ski Pass
Jun 7, 2019
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Mount Hallen
Halfway through the month and I have kept up to date with Wynnum North station averages so far. Of significance is the average pressure to date this month which is running at 6.8 Hpa below normal. And with normally lower pressures as this month progresses that figure is unlikely to change much.
Harbinger of stuff ahead?
 

Vinny

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,195
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Yeppoon Queensland
Our average is 51.7mm so we have had 15.2mm this month

We need just 36.5mm to get the average.

Looking ahead looks like our 3rd chance of something is Monday with a current forecast of a 90 percent chance 10-25mm from the Bom... let's hope that we get a bit more and it pours. Even Rocky is beating Yeppoon for rain this month .

It just doesn't seem right that Brisbane is over 100mm and we are struggling to get an inch lol

We've still got rain every month though , lawn i think last year and before was dry at this time even with irrigation, this year still quite green.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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Edit 2: Awesome to see some fair dinkum action your way @MegaMatch & hope it continues through this season for you, must be happy man, you'd nearly forgotton what its like yeah/no ,,
Best start to the storm season around here that I can remember in forever. Not getting too carried away though, could just as easily turn to sh!t in the coming weeks/months.

PS hope you get something soon @Vinny. Really hoping we see a couple of good tropical downpours sneak their way down our way this season.

edit: Cells popping up over Fraser Island as I type. Nicely modelled.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
edit: Cells popping up over Fraser Island as I type. Nicely modelled.

earlier you posted
.however I've noticed over the past few days that most models have tried to form a second round of cells tonight over the Fraser Coast or just offshore on Fraser Island. Guessing it's this tiny area of the coast that's still a chance of something tonight, but I'm still not holding my breath. Still, I think there could be a decent lightshow on/off Fraser Is tonight, though storms will be moving east very fast if they do form.
gotta say I admire your skill in “reading” / “interpreting” these situations. I’ve learnt a lot from your posts and still more to learn. So I hope you continue to post your views on the weather
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Rockhampton had it’s one and only storm of the season yesterday, followed by a bushfire today that covered the city in a smoky haze.

Clearly that was our wet season dun & dusted. Our wet season lasted from Midday 14th of October till 9am 15th of October.
Damn @Rainbow Serpant how are we supposed to respond to that!
I could give you a like
I could give you a love
I could give you a ha ha
i could give you a wow
i could give you a sad
i could give you an angry
but there ain’t no option for all of the above :blb:
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
Damn @Rainbow Serpant how are we supposed to respond to that!
I could give you a like
I could give you a love
I could give you a ha ha
i could give you a wow
i could give you a sad
i could give you an angry
but there ain’t no option for all of the above :blb:

Give it a “ that’s how it is” & move on
 

Seabreezes

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
440
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263
South West Rocks, NSW
Thunder yesterday afternoon, late last night and again this morning. Mostly weak/mild storms about the local area, aside from a strong cell yesterday afternoon inland of Kempsey which died quickly as it hit the coastal cap.
Except from three minutes of spitting rain this morning that didn't even wet the ground, it remained dry here throughout yesterday and today.

~

During 2009-2011, I lived in Armidale on the lower slopes of North Hill, and where I was back then is only about 1.5kms away from the path of where yesterday's tornado went. Parts of the Uni campus at the top of the hill there were affected too, which was the area where I had most of my classes, and the affected area was a part of the campus I would have walked through hundreds and hundreds of times.
A bit of content from Facebook and Instagram:
 
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