Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
In the mid morning was a mild thunderstorm with 2 minutes of heavy rain (4.3 mm). The temperature rose during the morning that was warm, then fell sharply in the mid morning by 8 C in 20 minutes with the thunderstorm before rising afterwards that was near average during the rest of the morning. Slightly warm in the early afternoon becoming warm during the rest of the afternoon that rose slowly until the mid afternoon before falling from later in the afternoon. Early tonight the temperature eased to slightly warm and to near average during tonight before the temperature stabilised before rising slowly late tonight. Dew point was moderately high in the morning that was generally stable before falling from the late morning which eased to near average and further to slightly below average in the early afternoon, moderately low in the mid afternoon and low from the late afternoon. After rising a little early tonight the dew point slowly fell during the rest of tonight that was moderately low.

Relative humidity was near average that quickly became high in the mid morning with the thunderstorm, before falling afterwards easing to slightly below average in the late morning. The relative humidity fell through to the afternoon becoming moderately low from the early afternoon, low from the mid morning and very low from the late afternoon. Early tonight the relative humidity rose a little before stabilising late tonight that was low, dropping to very low in the past hour. Light N to NW winds in the morning, tended W to NW with and after the thunderstorm before W to SW winds in the middle of the day. Light W to NW winds in the early to mid afternoon, W to WSW later in the afternoon and W to NW winds early tonight. After some calm winds were W to WNW winds later tonight tending S to SSW in the last half hour.

Last 24 hours:
rain 2021-10-15.PNG
temp 2021-10-15.PNG
hum 2021-10-15.PNG
wind dir 2021-10-15.PNG
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
I thought you had moved to regional NSW @Rainbow Serpant ?

Me too. I’ve certainly purchased a property there. My wife & daughter currently reside there, covid border restrictions have played havoc with my movements.
I’ve stayed in Rocky still trying to sell our land. Because it’s so dry the price for beef grazing land has plummeted. To the point it’s valued at 1/4 of what it was in 2012, mainly because it has no water, there’s a creek that is dry (for the fist time in recorded history), 2 dams that are both empty (for the first time ever), 3 bores, 1 is dry & 2 hardly produce much. So if it ever properly rains again it could help me get out of this dry hell hole.
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
51592089322_e7efd55484_b.jpg


Min of 11.7C here this morning so nice sleeping weather. On the topic of the next round of showers/storms in the upcoming first half of the working week, above is the accumulated lightning flash density forecasts from EC for that Mon-Wed period using composite images from Windy.

Obviously those areas will change a bit between now and then, and some areas may not end up being as favourable as what's shown but nevertheless, models are still holding firm on a good scattering of storms to develop in eastern QLD and some parts of eastern NSW around then. They'll probably be severe in some areas again as well.
 

Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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EC has been showing heavy rain near Rockhampton on Monday on the last few runs. There is a good moist inflow of moisture from the Coral Sea, and westerlies around a weak low inland. These flows converge near Rockhampton which is why EC has the heavy rain there. Further south the flow turns into a deep northerly. Along the coast even winds at 700hp are close to due northerly although they turn NW inland. Such a northerly flow may make it hard for storms to reach the coast. Storms could form on the coast but that would be more likely early in the morning and EC thinks storm activity will be further west earlier in the day as the upper trough is further west.

EC Monday afternoon:
Capture.PNG


And 700hp winds (winds lower down even more northerly):

EC 700 hp Monday 2pm.PNG
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
EC has been showing heavy rain near Rockhampton on Monday on the last few runs.

When you say near Rockhampton would Yeppoon be close to that , we're 40km North East .

GFS has temps in Yeppoon back to 33 deg by next Sunday with warm winds again .

Interesting the Ozforecast site I use all 3 models have around 15-20mm for Monday.

Just hoping for a little more so we can get the average rain for October on Monday :)
 

Retired Weather Man

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Jul 4, 2019
1,352
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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

SATURDAY 16 OCTOBER 2021 - TIME 0800

CURRENT TEMP..........21.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........50%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C
CURRENT WIND.......WSW 7Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....50KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1010.1Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......Nil cloud
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather.

RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY..1.4mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........28.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......11.4C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-0.75C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....11.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1007.1Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...NE 31Kph at 1358.
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..3 decaying thunderstorms affected the area from 0955 Friday, with all clearing seawards by lunchtime.

OCTOBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................164.6mm
OCTOBER AVERAGE RAINFALL.....................94.4mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1301.6mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF OCTOBER..........921.9mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 
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Ski Pass

Falling_Droplet

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Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,081
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 Oct 2021
Time: 12:45 PM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 11.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.9 C
Min Ground Temp: 8.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 4.3 mm

Temperature: 27.3 C
Relative Humidity: 27 %
Dew Point: 6.5 C
MSL Pressure: 1008 hPa
Wind Speed: 20 kph - moderate breeze
Wind Direction: WSW

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/10/21: Cloudy periods in the morning with Cu, Sc Ci and Cb clouds, becoming partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds in the morning. Distant thunder from a thunderstorm passing well to the south late in the early hour. A brief light shower early in the morning. A mild thunderstorm in the mid morning with 2 minutes of heavy rain. Hot from the start of the day before easing to slightly warm during the morning, with the temperature rising slightly at the start of the day, fell very slowly until the early morning before rising during the morning. During the morning the temperature became warm, then fell sharply in the mid morning by 8 C in 20 minutes with the thunderstorm before rising afterwards that was near average during the rest of the morning. Slightly warm in the early afternoon becoming warm during the rest of the afternoon that rose slowly until the mid afternoon before falling from later in the afternoon. Early in the evening, the temperature eased to slightly warm and to near average during the evening before the temperature stabilised before rising slowly late in the evening. Dew point remained moderately high which fell very slowly from the start of the day before rising a little during the morning that became generally stable from the mid morning. The dew point fell from the late morning which eased to near average and further to slightly below average in the early afternoon, moderately low in the mid afternoon and low from the late afternoon. After rising a little early in the evening the dew point slowly fell during the rest of the evening that was moderately low. Relative humidity was near average becoming slightly below average briefly early in the morning before returning to near average during the morning This is as the relative humidity was stable or rose very slowly from early before falling during the morning. Relative humidity quickly became high in the mid morning with the thunderstorm, before falling afterwards easing to slightly below average in the late morning. The relative humidity fell through to the afternoon becoming moderately low from the early afternoon, low from the mid morning and very low from the late afternoon. Early in the evening the relative humidity rose a little before stabilising late in the evening that was low. Light N to NW winds in the first 2 hours of the day, then the wind was calm before NNW to NE winds late in the early morning. During the morning were N to NW winds with some NNE winds, tended W to NW with and after the thunderstorm before W to SW winds in the middle of the day. Light W to NW winds in the early to mid afternoon, W to WSW later in the afternoon and W to NW winds early in the evening. After some calm winds were W to WNW winds later in the evening.

Today: The temperature have been mostly near average that was slightly warm for a brief period early in the morning that rose slightly early in the morning, then fell during the rest of the early morning before rising from the early morning. Dew point have been moderately low that rose slightly from early before falling slowly from the mid morning. Relative humidity was low early in the day while falling becoming very low during the rest of the early hours and from the early morning that rose in the early hours before falling from late in the early hours. While continuing to fall the relative humidity eased to moderately low from the mid morning. Light NW to SSW winds in the early hours with some calm winds late in the early hours. Early this morning while the wind speed increased were WNW to WSW winds, tending to W to SW during the morning with was light to moderate from the mid morning.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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where
So much in the last few years we've had a Queensland ridge and coral sea troughing. Seems for the last few months we've still seen some ridging along the Queensland Coast, but not much troughing activity out in the Coral/Tasman. Moreso there has been troughing to our west linking with plenty of low pressure systems over SE Australia. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues into summer, with a winter pattern these troughs tend to be a bit on the dry side with a lot of westerly winds, but if we see troughing on a similar axis as the highs move south we will get a lot more NE winds and lots of rain.

slp_90b.fnl.gif


Fingers crossed that this is good signs for the approaching wet season.
Didn't get a chance to respond to you at the time but I think you're spot on with this. I just wonder how long it'll last - I mean it's not uncommon to have a really active October followed by a quiet November...but overall the signs of a more active season in general are looking really good so far. I'm pretty confident even Capricornia areas will see some widespread showers/storms this coming week. Anyway, I'm just enjoying it while it lasts.

GFS has Mon- Tues with about 71mm in total of rainfall for Yeppoon

OCF has about 28mm

ADFD - 12mm

--
Rockhampton 31.5mm, 38mm and 14mm.

Also has temps hitting 37 deg by next weekend though.
Looks good up there this week if models hold.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,746
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363
Brisbane
1634378675825.png


1634378703784.png


1634378720178.png


1634378731207.png


1634378744975.png


1st photo above - The large hail that fell close to midnight last Thu night/early Fri morning in Rosewood in the Lockyer Valley. Photo from Natasha Fulton who said on average, the hail was around 2cm with the odd 3cm stone.

Remainder of the photos - Some of the many examples of the very spiky hail that fell on some parts of the Sunshine Coast last Thursday (caused by the mechanism of wet hailstone growth in storms containing lots of moisture). Photos from Jen Burns Wells in Nambour.
 

MegaMatch

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
2,993
13,981
363
where
1634378675825.png


1634378703784.png


1634378720178.png


1634378731207.png


1634378744975.png


1st photo above - The large hail that fell close to midnight last Thu night/early Fri morning in Rosewood in the Lockyer Valley. Photo from Natasha Fulton who said on average, the hail was around 2cm with the odd 3cm stone.

Remainder of the photos - Some of the many examples of the very spiky hail that fell on some parts of the Sunshine Coast last Thursday (caused by the mechanism of wet hailstone growth in storms containing lots of moisture). Photos from Jen Burns Wells.
Those stones look like something from another planet lol
 

PlumbBob

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Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
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Molendinar
Quite some activity for Qld coastal parts next week, as know, sooo, I put this animation together from screen-snips (then Cropped accurately in Photoshop) of every three hour frame from BSCH's stormcast starting Mon 1am right through to Sunday 10am just for the record & maybe compare when its all over,, That said, this does not mean there will be storms every three hours, or even every day for that matter as we all understand, but I got bored and know a lot will change,,, but interesting the consistancy for coastal areas through all hours of every day, none the less & for what its worth,,

Pic: Screen grab...

Youtube Animation Link --> Animation


01 Mon 1am.JPG
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Near average temperature in the morning and afternoon becoming slightly warm late in the afternoon and early tonight as the temperature fell a little slowly from later in the afternoon. Afterwards the temperature became warm before falling more quickly during tonight easing quickly to near average to slightly cool in the past hour. Dew point fell slowly in the morning and afternoon that was moderately low in the morning becoming low in the afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point rose slowly easing to moderately low during tonight.

Relative humidity was moderately low dropping back to low from the mid morning while falling slowly and became very low from the late afternoon while rising slowly. During tonight the relative humidity rose more quickly easing to low during tonight and moderately low late tonight. Light to moderate W to SW winds in the morning and early afternoon, before dropping back during the afternoon. Light W to WSW winds from early tonight with calm winds at times before calm winds in the last hour.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-10-16.PNG
hum 2021-10-16.PNG
wind dir 2021-10-16.PNG
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,746
34,507
363
Brisbane
A number of places which manage to get a good storm during the outbreaks in the first half of the working-week this week look like getting locally very heavy falls as well with a flash flooding threat.
But as is often the case with multiday setups, you'd also have to consider the possibility of early or pre-existing cloud cover/rainfall/storms reducing storm extent and severity later in the day in some areas.

There's also the possibility of some instability returning towards the end of the week or weekend, the duration of which depends on the timing of any southerly changes after it.

Beautiful sleeping weather again here this morning with a min temp of 8.5C .... Meanwhile, Warwick got down to 2.9C

Brisbane's not only received above average rainfall so far this month, we've now reached double our longer term October median rainfall, and we're still only just over halfway through this month.
 

Tsunami

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Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2019
947
6,072
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Cleveland SE QLD
Quite some activity for Qld coastal parts next week, as know, sooo, I put this animation together from screen-snips (then Cropped accurately in Photoshop) of every three hour frame from BSCH's stormcast starting Mon 1am right through to Sunday 10am just for the record & maybe compare when its all over,, That said, this does not mean there will be storms every three hours, or even every day for that matter as we all understand, but I got bored and know a lot will change,,, but interesting the consistancy for coastal areas through all hours of every day, none the less & for what its worth,,

Pic: Screen grab...

Youtube Animation Link --> Animation


01 Mon 1am.JPG
Well done mr plumb bob. Thats really cool
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,352
9,264
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

SUNDAY 17 OCTOBER 2021 - TIME 0740

CURRENT TEMP..........20.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........53%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C
CURRENT WIND.......WSW 4Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....40KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1015.5Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......Nil cloud
CURRENT WEATHER..No significant weather.

RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........27.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......11.5C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-1.25C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....10.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.......9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1011.1Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND...SW 35Kph at 1252.
PAST 24 HOURS SIG.WEATHER..No significant weather.

OCTOBER RAINFALL TO DATE....................164.6mm
OCTOBER AVERAGE RAINFALL.....................94.4mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1301.6mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF OCTOBER..........921.9mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,230
5,997
363
Yeppoon Queensland
It's strange how Perth in W.A had had more rain this year to date than Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Yeppoon , Gladstone and even Townsville.

Tomorrow GFS has downgraded Yeppoon to just 10mm, OCF on 22mm...

I just hope we get enough to get the average for the month as I think after this coming week that will be it for any chance of rain for the rest of the month (might be totally wrong though ) some of the best rain we seem to get here is when it isn't forecast lol.
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
1634421156740.png


1634421381945.png


1st image - Latest month to date rainfall as percentages of the longer term October mean.
2nd image - Same but for year to date for the Murray-Darling basin. Base climatological period goes to end of October. The northern parts of that basin had been suffering badly (among other regions) so it's nice to see there's been a good reprieve for that particular section at least.
 

Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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Pretty much all the storms have missed the central sunshine coast area - closest was that heavy hail at Woombye which is only a few kilometers west of me and where I got only anvil rain. Still at half the October average half way in and other times we have often done well here when others have missed out.

EC after being very consistent with that heavy rain bullseye for several days near Rockhampton has pretty much dropped it on this mornings run but still has some rain there similar to a lot of the rest of the Qld coast. The inland low is now forecast to be weaker with weaker convergence caused by westerlies to its north.

Wind profile over SEQ for Monday remains very northerly. Near 30 knots due northerly from 900 to 700hp. Then at 500hp winds actually decrease to mid20 knots from NW and then increase again above that. The deep northerly flow and that drop of in speed at 500hp seems quite unusual to me. Northerlies might make it hard for storms to reach coast.
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
1634422380991.png


1634422415746.png


Did you notice the interesting thing that was causing that rainfall bullseye in the recent EC runs @Michael Hauber ? It's been an MCS type of convective feature that's been forming in the model's atmosphere which has been pushing out a big outflow boundary against the prevailing northerlies and enhancing the rainfall. It's still there in the latest run too - see above.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,081
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363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 Oct 2021
Time: 11:50 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.6 C
Min Ground Temp: 7.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 27.1 C
Relative Humidity: 31 %
Dew Point: 8.5 C
MSL Pressure: 1013.6 hPa
Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: SSW

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 16/10/21: Sunny. The temperature was mostly near average from early that was slightly warm for a brief period early in the morning that rose slightly early in the morning, then fell during the rest of the early morning before rising from the early morning. Late in the afternoon and early in the evening the temperature became slightly warm as the temperature fell a little slowly from later in the afternoon. Afterwards the temperature became warm before falling more quickly from the mid evening easing quickly to near average in the late evening. Dew point was moderately low that rose slightly from early before falling slowly from the mid morning, becoming low in the afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point rose slowly easing to moderately low during the evening. Relative humidity was low early in the day while falling becoming very low during the rest of the early hours and from the early morning that rose in the early hours before falling from late in the early hours. While continuing to fall the relative humidity eased to moderately low from the mid morning, dropped back to low from the mid afternoon while falling slowly and became very low from the late afternoon while rising slowly. During the evening the relative humidity rose more quickly easing to low during the evening and moderately low late in the evening. Light NW to SSW winds in the early hours with some calm winds late in the early hours. Early in the morning while the wind speed increased were WNW to WSW winds, tending to W to SW during the morning and early afternoon with was light to moderate from the mid morning. The wind dropped back during the afternoon, light W to WSW winds from early in the evening with calm winds at times.

Today: Slightly cool early in the day, dropped back to cool late in the early hours and in the early morning as the temperature steadily fell. From the early morning the temperature rose that quickly eased back to near average from the early morning. Dew point have been moderately low and have been generally stable that rose slightly in the early morning. Relative humidity was moderately low early in the day that eased to slightly below average late in the early hours while rising before dropped back to moderately low and then low in the early morning while falling quickly. During the morning the relative humidity fell more slowly easing to moderately low from the mid morning. Calm winds in the early hours with some NW to SSW winds in an hour early in the day, then mostly SW to SE winds in the morning, becoming NNW to NE in the mid morning and NNW to WNW winds with some WNW to WSW winds later this morning.
 

Multiversity

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Jul 29, 2019
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1634422380991.png


1634422415746.png


Did you notice the interesting thing that was causing that rainfall bullseye in the recent EC runs @Michael Hauber ? It's been an MCS type of convective feature that's been forming in the model's atmosphere which has been pushing out a big outflow boundary against the prevailing northerlies and enhancing the rainfall. It's still there in the latest run too - see above.
interesting - what's the border between meso & larger class of convective systems? The one modelled has got a bit of heft to it.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
interesting - what's the border between meso & larger class of convective systems? The one modelled has got a bit of heft to it.

There's no real hard and fast universal criteria for MCS's. It's a broad generic term that can be used to describe anything that's made up of clusters of thunderstorms, even squall lines and TC's. Just that in the more classic sense, it's more like something that's in the screenshots further above.
MCC's on the other hand are a sub category of MCS's and have strict criteria for size, duration, eccentricity of the cloud mass, etc.
 

Ken Kato

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Brisbane
Bit of an upgrade in BOM's forecast from this morning for tomorrow, great when you work in civils....... NOT.
Anybody have an explanation please?

I feel the difference is going to be rather academic (convective rainfall amounts for point locations are hard to predict with consistently good accuracy anyway). Tomorrow's still looking like a case of the big majority of people in SEQ as well as some other regions getting something. And some of those people will probably get bursts of intense rainfall with local flash flooding potential on top of that. But cloud cover's likely to be increasing through the morning and shower/storm activity will also probably start coming across from the inland fairly early in the day..... so that'll have to be factored in when it comes to seeing how severe storms are later on.
Severe storms are still possible around the traps tomorrow but you'd need to keep in the back of your mind that if things turn into a rainy thundery mess too early and persist for too long, this would take the edge off the severity later on.

The setup for a number of days during the coming week looks really juicy in some sections of the broader southern and central QLD region (and NE NSW to a lesser extent) for particularly severe storms. But there'll probably be some days which are a fair bit quieter than others. For example, Tuesday still has potential for showers/storms in SEQ but not as widespread compared to tomorrow.
 

DDstorm

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Jul 8, 2019
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Tallai QLD,
I feel the difference is going to be rather academic (convective rainfall amounts for point locations are hard to predict with consistently good accuracy anyway). Tomorrow's still looking like a case of the big majority of people in SEQ as well as some other regions getting something. And some of those people will probably get bursts of intense rainfall with local flash flooding potential on top of that. But cloud cover's likely to be increasing through the morning and shower/storm activity will also probably start coming across from the inland fairly early in the day..... so that'll have to be factored in when it comes to seeing how severe storms are later on.

The setup for a number of days during the coming week looks really juicy in some sections of the broader southern and central QLD region (and NE NSW to a lesser extent) for particularly severe storms. But there'll probably be some days which are a fair bit quieter than others. For example, Tuesday still has potential for showers/storms in SEQ but not as widespread compared to tomorrow.
Awesome Ken, appreciate the rapid reply. Looks like my Monday has already started, I was the water truck driver till a few months ago, now I'm operations manager, bring on the funder
 

Ken Kato

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Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
1634465848415.png


Here's a write-up I did elsewhere of this week's thunderstorm potential (sorry for the dumbed down nature of it - it was for facebook and I don't have time to edit it):

" The big majority of SEQ will get at least some rainfall and/or thunder action on Monday (and some of you could also get bursts of intense rainfall) but shower/storm activity becomes less widespread for most of the rest of the week - however they could be particularly severe for some locations when they do occur.

Here are some important points to remember this week in SEQ (the SE Coast district):

◾ Monday's likely to see an early onset of mid/high level cloud cover and showers & storms coming across from the inland, possibly from as early as Mon morning.
While activity turning into a rainy thundery mess too early and lasting for too long always has the potential for reducing the extent and severity of actual thunderstorms for the afternoon, it won’t take much for further showers and storms to fire up later in the day (the threat of locally heavy rainfall with any storms would also continue into the afternoon/overnight/early Tue morning).
This activity may also tend to rain areas for a period in some portions of the region.

◾ For the remainder of the week, showers/storms are unlikely to be as widespread or prolonged as Monday's but on the days when storms do get going, they could become particularly severe in some locations.
This is due to stronger shear and more discrete (individual) nature of the storms while they're still young which means they don't interfere as much with each other when developing. The less widespread nature of the storms is because of somewhat drier air since we'll no longer be east of the upper trough, limiting the moisture to a shallower layer.

◾ Shower or strong storm activity will be possible at any time of the day or night (including overnight/early morning hours) this week due to the cold air aloft but with more of a focus on the afternoon hours.

◾ For the locations which do happen to get a severe storm this week, large to locally giant hail and brief damaging to locally destructive winds are possible (bursts of heavy rainfall will probably be more dominant than these threats on Monday).

◾ SEQ will be part of a broader zone of significantly elevated storm potential (including severe storms for portions of that zone) this week covering southern and central parts of the QLD coast as well as NE NSW.

So in a nutshell for SEQ, widespread showers, storms, and occasional rain areas developing on Monday from early on, and less widespread prolonged activity for most of the rest of the week (but could be particularly severe in some locations when it does occur).

Here’s a thunderstorm potential map generated by data from one of the models. This particular map uses Monday as one of the examples for this week. "


EDIT: Forecast PWAT anomalies from EC and GFS look surprisingly low tomorrow so I've edited the parts of the text to tone down the emphasis on locally intense rainfall.... there'll probably still be bursts of heavy rainfall around the traps though.
 

DDstorm

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Jul 8, 2019
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Tallai QLD,
1634465848415.png


Here's a write-up I did elsewhere of this week's thunderstorm potential (sorry for the dumbed down nature of it - it was for facebook and I don't have time to edit it):

" The big majority of SEQ will get at least some rainfall and/or thunder action on Monday (and some of you could also get bursts of intense rainfall) but shower/storm activity becomes less widespread for most of the rest of the week - however they could be particularly severe for some locations when they do occur.

Here are some important points to remember this week in SEQ (the SE Coast district):

◾ Monday's likely to see an early onset of mid/high level cloud cover and showers & storms coming across from the inland, possibly from as early as Mon morning.
While activity turning into a rainy thundery mess too early and lasting for too long always has the potential for reducing the extent and severity of actual thunderstorms for the afternoon, it won’t take much for further showers and storms to fire up later in the day (the threat of locally heavy rainfall with any storms would also continue into the afternoon/overnight/early Tue morning).
This activity may also tend to rain areas for a period in some portions of the region.

◾ For the remainder of the week, showers/storms are unlikely to be as widespread or prolonged as Monday's but on the days when storms do get going, they could become particularly severe in some locations.
This is due to stronger shear and more discrete (individual) nature of the storms while they're still young which means they don't interfere as much with each other when developing. The less widespread nature of the storms is because of somewhat drier air since we'll no longer be east of the upper trough, limiting the moisture to a shallower layer.

◾ Shower or strong storm activity will be possible at any time of the day or night (including overnight/early morning hours) this week due to the cold air aloft but with more of a focus on the afternoon hours.

◾ For the locations which do happen to get a severe storm this week, large to locally giant hail and brief damaging to locally destructive winds are possible (bursts of heavy rainfall will probably be more dominant than these threats on Monday).

◾ SEQ will be part of a broader zone of significantly elevated storm potential (including severe storms for portions of that zone) this week covering southern and central parts of the QLD coast as well as NE NSW.

So in a nutshell for SEQ, widespread showers, storms, and occasional rain areas developing on Monday from early on, and less widespread prolonged activity for most of the rest of the week (but could be particularly severe in some locations when it does occur).

Here’s a thunderstorm potential map generated by data from one of the models. This particular map uses Monday as one of the examples for this week. "


EDIT: Forecast PWAT anomalies from EC and GFS look surprisingly low tomorrow so I've edited the parts of the text to tone down the emphasis on locally intense rainfall.... there'll probably still be bursts of heavy rainfall around the traps though.
I don't mind the dumb down details, I do like your replys to some of the comments, top effort.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,081
11,637
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Near average temperature since the morning that rose to the maximum temperature in the early afternoon before generally stable temperature until the mid afternoon. During the rest of the afternoon and tonight the temperature fell, before slowing and stabilising late tonight. Dew point was moderately low in the morning that briefly became low in the early afternoon as the dew point fell in the middle of the day and in the early afternoon. After sharply rising for a briefly period the dew point rose slowly during the rest of the afternoon easing back to moderately low and to slightly below average later in the afternoon. Near average dew point from early tonight that was stable.

Relative humidity was moderately low from the morning while falling becoming low in the middle of the day. From the afternoon the relative humidity rose easing to moderately low, to slightly below average from the late afternoon and near average late tonight.Light N to WNW winds in the early afternoon after some variable winds in the middle of the day, shifting E to NE from the early afternoon and ENE to NNE later in the afternoon and early tonight. During the rest of tonight have been mostly calm winds.

Last 24 hours:
temp 2021-10-17.PNG
hum 2021-10-17.PNG
wind dir 2021-10-17.PNG
 

Rainbow Serpant

One of Us
Nov 5, 2020
438
1,732
263
Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
EC has been showing heavy rain near Rockhampton on Monday on the last few runs. There is a good moist inflow of moisture from the Coral Sea, and westerlies around a weak low inland. These flows converge near Rockhampton which is why EC has the heavy rain there. Further south the flow turns into a deep northerly. Along the coast even winds at 700hp are close to due northerly although they turn NW inland. Such a northerly flow may make it hard for storms to reach the coast. Storms could form on the coast but that would be more likely early in the morning and EC thinks storm activity will be further west earlier in the day as the upper trough is further west.

EC Monday afternoon:
Capture.PNG


And 700hp winds (winds lower down even more northerly):

EC 700 hp Monday 2pm.PNG

Nah won’t get to Rocky, it will split and go around like always.
 
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