Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,206
14,610
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
My humidity monitor is displaying extreme levels. ie my hair has a constant halo of stupid looking frizz...I look like a crazy lady.
when I have time and opportunity I try to collect old weather instruments with a preference for analogue gauges (before digital) including hygrometers reading %humidity.
my old hygrometers that have animal hair as the sensing material are now notoriously unreliable because the hair has had too many dry hot episodes and with such weathering are brittle.
But anyways reason I say this is hair does respond to humidity

edit: wiki says “ in the year 1783, Swiss physicist and Geologist Horace Bénédict de Saussureinvented the first hygrometer using human hair to measure humidity.”
 
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Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,057
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Light rain at times temporarily eased before light rain at times and showers returning later tonight.

The temperature rose during the morning until the maximum temperature was reached in the late morning before generally falling afterwards. Near average temperature in the mid morning dropped back during the morning to cool in the late morning and became cold from the mid afternoon, while the temperature stopped falling and rose very slowly. Tonight the temperature have been mostly stable that was near average early tonight, then became slightly warm and to warm later tonight. Dew point have remained mostly moderately high that rose slowly in the morning, became stable from the late morning before briefly falling slightly in the mid afternoon. During the rest of the afternoon and early tonight the dew point rose slowly before stabilising later tonight.

Relative humidity fell very slowly during the morning that was very high while remaining elevated, then rose slowly from the late morning before rising very slowly from the mid afternoon. During tonight the relative humidity became close to saturation that eased from high to early tonight to slightly above average late tonight. Light E to NE winds in the morning, NNE to ENE from the late morning before tending N to NW during the afternoon with and after a gusty shower with some N to NE winds. Early tonight were mostly N to NW winds, then mostly N to NE winds with some N to NW winds before N to NW winds late tonight.

Last 24 hours:

rain 2021-11-25.PNG
temp 2021-11-25.PNG


hum 2021-11-25.PNG
wind dir 2021-11-25.PNG
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
33,411
363
Brisbane
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Just had a quick glance at things before I start work and there appears to be a noticeable last minute change to one aspect for today - latest ACCESS-C and EC soundings now suggest more of a bias towards shower and thunderstorm activity developing (some severe), less prolonged widespread rain, and lower overall rainfall amounts than some previous runs.

In saying that, showers/storms spreading into rain still look possible for some areas, as do locally very heavy falls for any of those places which manage to get under heavier storms.
Will have a proper look shortly to see if that really is going to be the case.

Anyway, above is the latest (00z runs yesterday) riverine flooding scenario from the calibrated flood forecasts from GLOFAS for the day 4-10 period from yesterday.
Also above are the dam levels for the SEQ water grid as a whole and Wivenhoe respectively.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
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363
Brisbane
Indeed it does. Isn't that the trough that is bringing the rain?

Nope @Snapper22 , today's showers/storms will be from the frontal system and upper trough approaching from the west as mentioned yesterday.

It's another good example of why it's never a good idea to assume that the current radar image will always be representative of what it'll look like a number of hours from now.

But if ACCESS-C is right, today's rainfall may not be as widespread, prolonged, or heavy as what earlier runs were suggesting (some severe storms with bursts of locally intense rainfall still possible around the traps depending on whether any clearer skies can open up this arvo though).
 

Auzza

Addicted
Nov 12, 2019
50
341
133
Grafton, NSW
Not overly confident we will get much here today. The Northern Rivers area of NSW has largely missed out on the recent big rains most other areas have gotten bar the border area and today looks similar . Not that we need it, catchments are already saturated, but it's a little unexciting when you have unproductive grey skies for weeks on end.
 

Snapper22

Addicted
Jul 4, 2019
63
389
133
Nope @Snapper22 , today's showers/storms will be from the frontal system and upper trough approaching from the west as mentioned yesterday.

It's another good example of why it's never a good idea to assume that the current radar image will always be representative of what it'll look like a number of hours from now.

But if ACCESS-C is right, today's rainfall may not be as widespread, prolonged, or heavy as what earlier runs were suggesting (some severe storms with bursts of locally intense rainfall still possible around the traps depending on whether any clearer skies can open up this arvo though).
Ok thanks. That's why I appreciate the input of everyone on this forum.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,176
5,625
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Looks like here in Yeppoon have to wait until Saturday (Next week ! ) before we see a drop in the dew point , I think this is related to a SE wind change.

I had a question related to SE winds. In Yeppoon would a particular wind direction favour more moisture in summer? I thought if the winds are blowing SE vs NE/N/NW a lot in summer here it would be drier or is that not the case /only factor?

Looking at weather.com it has us on a long spell of ESE winds from about the 2nd of December to at least the 10th.
1637873593155.png
 
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Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
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Brisbane
Noticed access had backed off for Brisbane area last night. BoM sticking to their forecast from yesterday afternoon though. Interesting to see what plays out.

Yeah, assuming you're referring to the 18z run, it's had a dramatic cutback in amounts!

Still a fair bit of variation in the multimodel spread though. Some still have locally heavy falls while some have much lower totals.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,329
9,006
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

FRIDAY 26 NOVEMBER 2021 - TIME 0810

CURRENT TEMP..........23.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........97%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......22C
CURRENT WIND........N 13Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....10KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1009.2Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD.....5/8 Fs, 4/8 Cu, 7/8 Sc
CURRENT WEATHER....Distant showers
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..10.4mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........25.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......22.2C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.60C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....22.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......23C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1010.8Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..N 26Kph at 0752
PAST 24 HOURS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....Slight showers most of the period, clearing early Friday.

NOVEMBER RAINFALL TO DATE...................222.8mm
NOVEMBER AVERAGE RAINFALL...................103.2mm
2021 RAINFALL TO DATE......................1629.2mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL TO END OF NOVEMBER........1025.1mm
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAIN TO END OF DEC..........1152.4mm
 

Mezo

One of Us
Dec 11, 2019
394
2,676
263
Springfield
Yeah, assuming you're referring to the 18z run, it's had a dramatic cutback in amounts!

Still a fair bit of variation in the multimodel spread though. Some still have locally heavy falls while some have much lower totals.

Maybe it was EC I looked at last night that didn't seem as excited as it had been. Access is even worse this morning than it was last night. Huge totals...out in the ocean. It has some big totals tomorrow to the west out south of me, though and EC still looks OKish for some isolated big totals today west and south of Brisbane. Glad I'm not a forecaster trying to piece all that together.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,057
11,426
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 26 Nov 2021
Time: 9:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 25.8 C
Min Ground Temp: 20 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 16.1 mm

Temperature: 25 C
Relative Humidity: 25 %
Dew Point: 22.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1008.5 hPa
Wind Speed: 5 kph - light air
Wind Direction: N

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 8/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 25/11/21: Cloudy with Cu, Sc and As clouds. Light showers in the early morning and in the late morning. Distant thunder in the late morning before light rain at times from the middle of the day with a light to moderate shower in the afternoon, followed by a brief gusty and heavy shower. Lighter falls from the mid afternoon, easing during the evening before light rain at times and showers returning from the late evening. Warm from the start of the day that fell in the first half of the early hours, before stabilising before rising from the early morning. The maximum temperature was reached in the late morning before generally falling afterwards. Near average temperature in the mid morning dropped back during the morning to cool in the late morning and became cold from the mid afternoon, while the temperature stopped falling and rose very slowly. In the evening the temperature was mostly stable that was near average early in the evening, then became slightly warm and to warm later in the evening. Dew point fell a little early in the day, then became stable during the middle of the early hours before rising from the early morning that was moderately high. Dew point rose slowly from the mid morning, became stable from the late morning before briefly falling slightly in the mid afternoon. During the rest of the afternoon and early in the evening the dew point rose slowly before stabilising later in the evening. Relative humidity rose slowly until the early morning to near saturation before falling slowly that was elevated during the morning that was near average and shifted from slightly above average early in the morning to very high from the mid morning. From the late morning the relative humidity rose slowly and rose very slowly from the mid afternoon. During the evening the relative humidity became close to saturation that eased from high early in the evening to slightly above average late in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early with some SSW to NNW winds before light E to NE with some N to NE winds during the morning. Light NNE to ENE from the late morning before tending N to NW during the afternoon with and after a gusty shower with some N to NE winds. Early in the evening were mostly N to NW winds, then mostly N to NE winds with some N to NW winds.

Today: Light showers in the early hours eased in frequency during this morning. The temperature fell very slowly in the early hours that was warm at the start of the day and hot during the rest of the early hours. The temperature rose from the early morning before rising more quickly in the last half hour which eased from warm early this morning to near average presently. Dew point remains moderately high that fell slowly in the early hours and then generally rose from the early morning. Relative humidity was near saturation, stable and near average from early before starting to fall slowly during this morning and became high. Light N to NW winds in the first half of the early hours, then NNW to NE later in the early hours and early this morning with calm winds at times. Winds tended N to NW during this morning.
 

Gleno71

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,185
6,861
363
Gold Coast, Queensland
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Just had a quick glance at things before I start work and there appears to be a noticeable last minute change to one aspect for today - latest ACCESS-C and EC soundings now suggest more of a bias towards shower and thunderstorm activity developing (some severe), less prolonged widespread rain, and lower overall rainfall amounts than some previous runs.

In saying that, showers/storms spreading into rain still look possible for some areas, as do locally very heavy falls for any of those places which manage to get under heavier storms.
Will have a proper look shortly to see if that really is going to be the case.

Anyway, above is the latest (00z runs yesterday) riverine flooding scenario from the calibrated flood forecasts from GLOFAS for the day 4-10 period from yesterday.
Also above are the dam levels for the SEQ water grid as a whole and Wivenhoe respectively.
Ken is the less prolonged rain based on the fact that most ot it seems to be offshore now?
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
33,411
363
Brisbane
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Ken is the less prolonged rain based on the fact that most ot it seems to be offshore now?

Nah @Gleno71 , a lot of that offshore rain was due to a subtle midlevel shortwave trough that passed across our area.

The more widespread rain that was appearing in the earlier runs of some of the models for today was due to the approaching inland front and upper trough. But looking at latest EC, it looks like that upper trough hangs back a bit further inland, starts flattening out a bit, then eventually reforms even further inland. Refer to the 2nd map above showing the areas where there's higher probabilities of stratiform rainfall within the 6hrs up to 1pm today.

So I think today's going to come down to the competing factors of the better rainfall hanging back inland due to the position of the upper trough or occurring closer to the coast due to the ongoing humid unstable airmass.

Regardless of that, I'd still be surprised if there wasn't at least some redevelopment of shower/storm activity in our region today (and in some places, possibly severe and locally heavy) given the background instability and moisture. Refer to the 1st map above for 4pm showing the potential for those locally high rainfall rates.
But I'd still keep that other scenario of the better rainfall hanging back further inland in the back of the mind.
It's a fluid situation, no pun intended, with upper troughing shifting around in various places on various days. So don't be too surprised if you see further changes to forecasts. For example, 18z GFS has significantly ramped up rainfall for Tuesday but tapered off the amounts for the mid to late next week... and this may yet still change even further.
 

Mezo

One of Us
Dec 11, 2019
394
2,676
263
Springfield
Anyone else find the new WZ radar almost unusable? The smoothing is a great new feature, but apart from that it's a shocker. There's often frames missing and it takes forever to refresh when you zoom in or out. No dots where locations are (just the name). Can't put your own location on there yet either. Dunno how they decided yep, that's ready for public consumption.
 

Tweetie

Hard Yards
Dec 21, 2020
41
296
83
Anyone else find the new WZ radar almost unusable? The smoothing is a great new feature, but apart from that it's a shocker. There's often frames missing and it takes forever to refresh when you zoom in or out. No dots where locations are (just the name). Can't put your own location on there yet either. Dunno how they decided yep, that's ready for public consumption.

The WZ radar is now crap to put it bluntly. The smoothing kills and distorts detail.

Another thread here.

 

Tsunami

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2019
924
5,843
263
Cleveland SE QLD
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Nah @Gleno71 , a lot of that offshore rain was due to a subtle midlevel shortwave trough that passed across our area.

The more widespread rain that was appearing in the earlier runs of some of the models for today was due to the approaching inland front and upper trough. But looking at latest EC, it looks like that upper trough hangs back a bit further inland, starts flattening out a bit, then eventually reforms even further inland. Refer to the 2nd map above showing the areas where there's higher probabilities of stratiform rainfall within the 6hrs up to 1pm today.

So I think today's going to come down to the competing factors of the better rainfall hanging back inland due to the position of the upper trough or occurring closer to the coast due to the ongoing humid unstable airmass.

Regardless of that, I'd still be surprised if there wasn't at least some redevelopment of shower/storm activity in our region today (and in some places, possibly severe and locally heavy) given the background instability and moisture. Refer to the 1st map above for 4pm showing the potential for those locally high rainfall rates.
But I'd still keep that other scenario of the better rainfall hanging back further inland in the back of the mind.
It's a fluid situation, no pun intended, with upper troughing shifting around in various places on various days. So don't be too surprised if you see further changes to forecasts. For example, 18z GFS has significantly ramped up rainfall for Tuesday but tapered off the amounts for the mid to late next week... and this may yet still change even further.
Im kinda missing something
We could get a truck load of rain, or very little
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
33,411
363
Brisbane
1637893083332.png


Im kinda missing something
We could get a truck load of rain, or very little

Pretty much @Tsunami haha

Difficult forecast today. But regardless, bottom line is that I still think there'll be redevelopment of showers and storms in our region, severe for some places and with bursts of intense rainfall.
You can that's already started to happen on the latest radar.

The bigger question for me at the moment is how widespread it'll become closer to the coast and what sort of rainfall amounts will result.
 

MegaMatch

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
2,940
13,561
363
where
Here she comes again from the north...quickly approaching 50mm mostly since yesterday afternoon.

Some more good falls up around the Wide Bay & Capricornia last night due to a little coastal trough which hugged the coast overnight, most notably Bundaberg which ended up with 114mm to 9am today. Even some good falls over the Central Highlands as well. So the rain is continuing to fall where it is needed (although it'd be nice if the SEQ catchments got a drink too), mostly just solid soaking rain with isolated heavier falls mixed in although just a drop in the ocean compared to the crazy totals southern SEQ/NSW seem to get when it rains down there.

IDQ65134.gif
IDQ65126.gif
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
33,411
363
Brisbane
Here she comes again from the north...quickly approaching 50mm mostly since yesterday afternoon.

Some more good falls up around the Wide Bay & Capricornia last night due to a little coastal trough which hugged the coast overnight, most notably Bundaberg which ended up with 114mm to 9am today. Even some good falls over the Central Highlands as well. So the rain is continuing to fall where it is needed (although it'd be nice if the SEQ catchments got a drink too), mostly just solid soaking rain with isolated heavier falls mixed in although just a drop in the ocean compared to the crazy totals southern SEQ/NSW seem to get when it rains down there.

IDQ65134.gif
IDQ65126.gif

I haven’t checked the latest levels of SEQ dams yet but from memory, many were at healthy levels due to all the recent rain, especially the smaller coastal ones.

It’s Wivenhoe that’s currently one of the bigger concerns with the better falls often seeming to evade its upstream inland catchment area. It’s level is bringing down the collective level of the SEQ water grid.

BTW: https://www.9news.com.au/national/q...khampton/24611ebe-3a78-454f-9d0f-9dba4089ac70
 

Timbuck

One of Us
Jul 4, 2019
167
1,304
263
Highland park
Picking up my new car at 3pm , so can I put an order in for no hail please :nono:.

new rain measurement……. Ants know nothing about weather…. I’ve workEd out you know you have had enough rain when the snails are coming into the house. yes… Gold Coast very soggy. Very happy to see just about the whole east coast getting some. Now we just need a couple of dam fillers and it will be sweet. spoke to my mate out at urbanvile, and his ground water is full again ( his bores have been dry for some time) and multiple springs running on his 200acre property. Just add water.. amazing what it does to the country.
 

Big T

One of Us
Dec 1, 2019
284
2,046
263
Albany Creek
I haven’t checked the latest levels of SEQ dams yet but from memory, many were at healthy levels due to all the recent rain, especially the smaller coastal ones.

It’s Wivenhoe that’s currently one of the bigger concerns with the better falls often seeming to evade its upstream inland catchment area. It’s level is bringing down the collective level of the SEQ water grid.

BTW: https://www.9news.com.au/national/q...khampton/24611ebe-3a78-454f-9d0f-9dba4089ac70
wivenhoe missing out so far , maybe in time that may be a blessing in disguise......given a likely wet summer and that off chance of an "event" thrown in on top.
 

MegaMatch

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
2,940
13,561
363
where
Long way off but this afternoon's model runs just coming in look ominous for mid-next week. Southerly change washes out, easterlies return and end up feeding into yet another deep inland surface & upper trough (separate to the scenario I mentioned last night where some of next week's rain may still fall between the breakdown of the SE'sters and the resumption of the easterlies...although this is still hinted at, it looks rather weak and showery at best before the main trough moves in mid-late next week). Looks to be more focused on SEQ/NE NSW rather than up here though if it were to happen.

I think it's fair to say (as IW perfectly put it a couple of weeks ago), the quidge has just had no grunt in it at all this year. We'll get SE'sters for a few days but then straight back to easterlies tending NE ahead of any approaching troughs (although you'd probably expect the frequency of these mid-lat systems to start to die down once the monsoon ramps up up north later in the season).
 

Scotty_M

Hard Yards
Oct 18, 2021
14
114
28
Bundamba (Ipswich)
Is it true that trough passage rain/storms tend to move more in a south easterly direction earlier in the season and then easterly to northeasterly later on in Jan-Feb?

IMO I prefer storms to be coming from the S-W quadrant. Topography and other factors I feel make it less reliable for storms passing through my neck of the woods when coming in from the NW.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,652
33,411
363
Brisbane
Severe thunderstorm warning now current for that inland part of SEQ and far eastern Downs.

" Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:33 pm Friday, 26 November 2021.

Bands of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall developing over southeast Queensland.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorm activity is developing over southeast Queensland in a very moist airmass. The wind structure favours the development of slow-moving bands of storms capable of locally heavy rainfall.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Gatton, Boonah and Laidley. "
 
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