Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Dylan Kearney

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it’s generated with access S and its only one week time scale and it says high chance of exceeding median for that typical week of the year. So to make any sense of it you need to understand the median for this typical week of the year which looks like pic below which is pretty much ordinary to nothing rain. So while the colours look great on the chance above median map the reality is it ain’t much at all. One of the reasons I generally find chance above median ain’t much guidance for short timescales for rainfall.
84D725CB-C1FD-41EF-9E62-68165927F601.jpeg
I understand that it’s ‘chance’ of exceeding rainfall and also the median. However, looking at the forecasts for Brisbane and models it doesn’t seem likely that anything close to those falls will come off by the 24th
 

Retired Weather Man

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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
ELEVATION 16 METRES

( DATA FROM 0900 PREVIOUS DAY TO 0900 CURRENT DAY )

SATURDAY 15 JANUARY 2022 - TIME 0745

CURRENT TEMP..........25.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........77%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......21C
CURRENT WIND........SW 6Kph
CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
CURRENT PRESSURE..1010.5Hpa
CURRENT CLOUD......1/8 Cu, 6/8 Ci
CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.0mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS

YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........30.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......21.4C
PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY...0.00C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....20.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE...1010.7Hpa
PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST...NE 27Kph at 1513
PAST 24 HOURS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....No significant weather.

JANUARY RAINFALL TO DATE...................47.0mm
JANUARY AVERAGE RAINFALL..................152.9mm
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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I understand that it’s ‘chance’ of exceeding rainfall and also the median. However, looking at the forecasts for Brisbane and models it doesn’t seem likely that anything close to those falls will come off by the 24th

@Dylan Kearney I was saying this earlier to @Rainbow Serpant as well but....

" as Flowin showed with that map, the longer term median for this area for that week ranges between only 10 and 25mm depending on where you are. It's the median for only a week, not a monthly outlook.

It's not hard at all to exceed 10mm or even 25mm. Even just a couple of decent rounds of showers or storms can do it, and then bang, you're already above the median and that outlook would be correct. You don't have to have big rains to get greens on that map for a given week.

In saying that, I'm not sure if we will get above those amounts for that week. The upcoming shower and storm activity for here looks erratic so it looks like we'll be pushing our luck and our cards will have to fall the right way for us to achieve it. Never know though. "

Also, I'd have to double check on this but the ACCESS-S2 system which produces those outlooks, uses a lagged ensemble approach like its predecessor ACCESS-S1 did i.e. it uses a bunch of runs from the past X number of days where X varies depending on whether it's forecasting on weekly/monthly/seasonal timescales.

The advantage of using a lagged ensemble is that they tend to be less jumpy at longer ranges because of the use of multiple runs over days but the downside is that if there's a big change to the most recent forecasts, it's slow to reflect that change.
 

Kazza47

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@Rainbow Serpant as Flowin showed with that map, the median for this area for that week is only 10-25mm. It's the median for only a week, not a monthly outlook.

It's not hard at all to exceed that. Even just a couple of decent rounds of showers or storms can do it, and then bang, you're already above the median and that outlook would be correct.
You don't have to have big flooding rains to get greens on that map.

In saying that, I'm not sure if we will get above those amounts for that week. The upcoming shower and storm activity for here looks erratic so we might have difficulty. Guess time will tell.
All this negativity about La Nina just strengthens my belief that La Ninas/El Ninos are something best viewed & 'rated' by the amateur weatherwatcher in hindsight, not during the event. Only a professional can interpret what is happening with any degree of understanding, and even then, they are not fortune tellers.

I'm also dumbfounded at the amount of times I am reading 'this dry spell'. WTF? We have fine sunny days, we just had a few major rain events. What do people expect? Rain every second day?
It's not as if we are back to drought conditions, the atmosphere is very well saturated, the ground is saturated. In the overall picture, people are still cleaning up after being inundated with water. Mother Nature is pausing to breathe.
As far as the next month goes, short memories have forgotten that before the last few events, the activity 'looked erratic' and was hard to forecast. I can't recall seeing anywhere that some areas would get 'a 1 in hundred years rain event that would break records'. I can remember seeing that there would be a lot of rain/weather about so in no way am I suggesting Bom got it wrong, just that as usual Mother Nature gave us a bit of a surprise.
What I can see is once again, people are looking too far ahead expecting accurate forecasts, when we know only general ones can be given for now.
I'll get back to you in a month on how it all went, ok?
 

Rays74

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I think one our forum members lives at Mt Hallen.

I came across this link while trawling my daily news feed.

Good opportunity to buy a mountain and keep an eye on Wivenhoe Dam for us

Ironically, getting water to the site will be a huge problem.


Disclaimer; BTW, I have no association with real estate or that property.
 

Slovenski

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I think one our forum members lives at Mt Hallen.

I came across this link while trawling my daily news feed.

Good opportunity to buy a mountain and keep an eye on Wivenhoe Dam for us

Ironically, getting water to the site will be a huge problem.


Disclaimer; BTW, I have no association with real estate or that property.
Correct Ray, seen that a while back.
$620K to own a mountain, quite cheap really. The view from up there, I am told, is just breathtaking. For a brief moment I was actually considering it LOL
Our place is as green as, Ducks having fun in the dam, mower getting a good workout. Really nice to have a dry period.
 

Multiversity

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thanks for the update RWM - any explanation for weak flow out of Asia? - weak Highs over W China? cheers

The two Qld cyclones to date have been weak in their formation and early phases. It is noted the monsoon flow out of Asia so far has been weak from the outset. A strong surge is needed to enhance the monsoon trough and help " spin up " lows that form along this line in our area.
 

Falling_Droplet

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fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 15 Jan 2022
Time: 10:20 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 18.5 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 30.6 C
Min Ground Temp: 16.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
Temperature: 29.4 C
Relative Humidity: 60 %
Dew Point: 20.9 C
MSL Pressure: 1009.3 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: NE

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 14/1/22: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. Slightly cool in the early hours while the temperature fell from early but fell more slowly later in the early hours. As the temperature rose from the early morning, it eased to near average that generally rose slowly from mid morning to the maximum temperature in the early afternoon before falling slowly afterwards. The temperature was rather variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon before the temperature became slightly cool for a period late in the afternoon. Afterwards the temperature eased back to near average while falling. Dew point was slightly below average in the early hours while falling slowly, then rose from the early morning close to average before stabilising from the mid morning, rose very slowly in the early to mid afternoon before falling slowly from the mid afternoon. Relative humidity was slightly below average from early while rising, then fell from early morning that was briefly moderately low early in the morning and eased to near average from the mid morning. Relative humidity then rose slowly afterwards that was temporarily slightly above average in the mid afternoon and slightly below average early in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early before light S to SW winds developed in the early morning, then SSW to SSE in the mid morning before S to SE winds tended to NE to SE from later in the morning. Winds tended to E to NE in the afternoon, ENE to NE from the mid afternoon before tending N to NE for a brief period during the evening. The wind became calm late in the evening.

Today: The temperature have near average which fell in the early hours, before rising from early in the morning and have been a little variable in the past 2 hours. Dew point have been close to average that fell slowly in the early hours, rose slowly from early in the morning before stabilising from the mid morning. Relative humidity rose slowly until the early morning close to average, before falling sharply afterwards that temporarily became slightly below average and eased back to near average in the past hour. Calm winds in the early hours and early morning with a brief period of SSW to W winds early this morning. Light NW to NE winds in the past 2 hours.
 
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BrettSS

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Local Woolies. Happens every single time it floods and yet they continue to spend thousands fixing it all up again. Not sure why they don't just abandon the floodplain and build on higher ground. Billion dollar company though so whatever.

W3TnrVhOQo0AmbZtUk3D1xO5UEw&_nc_ht=scontent-syd2-1.jpg
That's what I wonder about the Rocklea markets here in Brisbane, which flooded in 1974 and again in 2011, resulting in food shortages in supermarkets. Why not move such an important food market to a higher elevation?
 

Kazza47

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So I had the arduous task of babysitting the grandkids yesterday. Hard work, entailing several bouts of laying back in the pool looking at clouds.(I know ... I'm a trooper, anything for family)
No rain for a little while in Kingaroy/Wondai so I watched a few of the bigger clouds after lunchtime to see what they were doing.
They grew, dark underneath & you could watch the tops getting bigger, higher and more dense. Then as they got close to us, you could see the tops collapse into the cloud and the whole thing just spread out into a wispy mess & it just floated on past us.
This happened time & time again, so that plus the fact that there were several, but they never joined together made me think that most of the ingredients are there for rain, but something just fails.
Would it be air pressure that just isn't right that causes the collapsing?

Whatever it is, it still brings hope that there is plenty of life left in the atmosphere yet; just gotta hit the right mix of ingredients, but then that is what weather is all about in my mind anyway.
 

Kazza47

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That's what I wonder about the Rocklea markets here in Brisbane, which flooded in 1974 and again in 2011, resulting in food shortages in supermarkets. Why not move such an important food market to a higher elevation?
I'd think it was a locality issue; just the right place for the meeting of country & city. And let's face it, 35 years between events really doesn't add up to equal the costs that would be involved. If anything, I daresay they would be more likely to have worked on a contingency plan for future floods.
I think you will also find most large supermarkets now operate independently of the public markets & have little to do with them, ie they have their own facilities & own growers for the major items now.
Oh and lastly, I wouldn't want the markets near my place if I lived in suburban Brisbane. They'd have a hard time finding a site that would suit all the needs the market has built up over the decades.
 

Ken Kato

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Ken I agree with all of that. I wasn’t suggesting that MJO is a random occurrence. I am aware research finds feedback loops exist and there are cycles etc.

I was meaning MJO index rather than as a phenomena.
Some indices are more representative of the cause of something ( such as temp anomaly of specific regions of the ocean as the metric used for Nina status ).
Whereas some other indices are more representative of the outcomes of something, which is where I tend to think the MJO RMM index belongs (but happy to be corrected on that).
You mention the exact mechanisms of MJO are not known though it is known it is forced. ‘RMM phase MJO index‘ does not seem to represent a cause and seems to be more ‘a measure’ of it happening.

I find it useful to distinguish causal indicators and outcome indicators for better understanding of phenomena and the potential to forecast and confirm occurrence. An example in water quality for eutrophication of lakes is good to explain. If you have water quality data showing high nitrogen and phosphorus concentration are present that is a concern as a potential cause of eutrophication. But it also does not guarantee eutrophication will occur. If you have water quality data showing high chlorophyll concentrations and low dissolved oxygen then there is a strong indication eutrophication is occurring or has occurred.
The causal indicators can help to forecast but don’t guarantee, and are often useful when they are ‘lead’ indicators. The outcome indicators as observations help confirmations and understanding /awareness, but can be also sometimes after the occurrence and can end up being a ‘lag’ indicator.

I don’t know if MJO index is a lag indicator and would think maybe not, or at least not by much
But I would say MJO index does not appear to be a lead indicator and RMM phase does not seem to explain a ‘cause’.

The reason why I said what I did was because you said, "I generally think of MJO of a signal of activity rather than a causal signal." As in the MJO itself. There's no reference to RMM in there (which has always been an analysis method as far as observed MJO phase diagrams go, not a predictive tool or something that shows a cause).
 

Ken Kato

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thanks for the update RWM - any explanation for weak flow out of Asia? - weak Highs over W China? cheers

@Multiversity I'd also recommend bookmarking this webpage which I mentioned awhile back: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Tropical-update

It often mentions if there's anything significant happening in the northern hemisphere (typhoons, etc) which is interfering with the cross-equatorial flow, as well as the current state of the monsoon up north. You'll find that it'll probably answer most of your questions.
 

Ken Kato

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Access C suggesting a bit of cloud Sunday early to mid morning
:oops: Hoping can get a bit of storm - just for the interest I ain’t expecting much rain.

When I had a look yesterday, Sunday looked like one of those setups where it might pay to keep a lazy eye on the radar around the Scenic Rim ranges in case it happens to cause the "storm becomes strong over the Scenic Rim then starts left-moving northwestwards up towards areas south and west of Brisbane" trick (due to a southerly steering flow).

Haven't checked yet today to see if that's changed though. I did notice ACCESS-C was trying to creep some of the inland activity into parts of the SE Coast overnight tonight/early tomorrow morning although that looks real close to 50/50.
 

BrettSS

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I'd think it was a locality issue; just the right place for the meeting of country & city. And let's face it, 35 years between events really doesn't add up to equal the costs that would be involved. If anything, I daresay they would be more likely to have worked on a contingency plan for future floods.
I think you will also find most large supermarkets now operate independently of the public markets & have little to do with them, ie they have their own facilities & own growers for the major items now.
Oh and lastly, I wouldn't want the markets near my place if I lived in suburban Brisbane. They'd have a hard time finding a site that would suit all the needs the market has built up over the decades.
Fair enough. I just remember that we couldn't buy milk for about three days in January 2011 and were told that it was because the Rocklea markets were flooded. And it was a pity seeing all that good food getting ruined.
 

Flowin

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Fair enough. I just remember that we couldn't buy milk for about three days in January 2011 and were told that it was because the Rocklea markets were flooded. And it was a pity seeing all that good food getting ruined.
Paul’s milk depot / processing at South Brisbane also got flooded in 2011. Probably had more influence on milk shortages than Rocklea. I am not aware of Rocklea having a significant function in the supply chain for milk (But I haven’t checked). Anyway the supply chain impacts in floods are often worse when there are simultaneously impacts on multiple facilities affecting supplies, utilities, infrastructure.
 

Michael Hauber

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So I had the arduous task of babysitting the grandkids yesterday. Hard work, entailing several bouts of laying back in the pool looking at clouds.(I know ... I'm a trooper, anything for family)
No rain for a little while in Kingaroy/Wondai so I watched a few of the bigger clouds after lunchtime to see what they were doing.
They grew, dark underneath & you could watch the tops getting bigger, higher and more dense. Then as they got close to us, you could see the tops collapse into the cloud and the whole thing just spread out into a wispy mess & it just floated on past us.
This happened time & time again, so that plus the fact that there were several, but they never joined together made me think that most of the ingredients are there for rain, but something just fails.
Would it be air pressure that just isn't right that causes the collapsing?

Whatever it is, it still brings hope that there is plenty of life left in the atmosphere yet; just gotta hit the right mix of ingredients, but then that is what weather is all about in my mind anyway.

Could be the trade inversion. Basically being just north of the high pressure belt we have low level somewhat unstable air that flows northwards and builds in thickness as it goes further north. Above this is the returning stable air in the upper levels coming south from the deep tropical convection, and this layer thickens as it goes south. As far as I can tell in this area during summer and Autumn when high pressure belt is further south this layer is thicker and often thick enough to support lower level convection which forms the typical coastal shower that isn't as tall as a typical thunderstorm. On many fine days on the coast you can watch fair weather cumulus build up to a particular height and then dissipate as the tops hit a stable layer - which I assume is this trade wind inversion. I'd guess that the clouds you were watching were hitting this layer and that at the moment this layer is high enough to get close to rain, or even give the odd random shower near the coast early in the morning (ran into one yesterday)

tradeWindInv.jpg


source
 

Ken Kato

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All this negativity about La Nina just strengthens my belief that La Ninas/El Ninos are something best viewed & 'rated' by the amateur weatherwatcher in hindsight, not during the event.

You know the drill Kazza, it doesn't matter how much good rain's fallen over a number of months, as soon as there's been a couple of weeks of drier weather, it's "OMG so much for La Nina", "where's La Nina gone?", etc etc

It's only been a couple of weeks since I posted the rainfall percentage map above in here but will do it again as a useful reminder of what's already fallen.
Huge areas of above average rainfall overall and not just restricted to one month either. Large areas of record rain as well, particularly November.

Even if no further rain fell between now and the end of summer, a period during which the effects of La Nina's often start to wane, it still wouldn't change the fact that big areas of above average rain have already fallen during the late winter-early summer period which is a common time when La Nina's rainfall effects are pronounced.

The big question is though, how long will the current overall drier period so far this month (not including the locally extreme falls in the WBB recently or the upcoming shower/storm potential) go on for. Will it last for ages until La Nina is done and dusted, or is it only a temporary aberration.
 

Kazza47

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Could be the trade inversion. Basically being just north of the high pressure belt we have low level somewhat unstable air that flows northwards and builds in thickness as it goes further north. Above this is the returning stable air in the upper levels coming south from the deep tropical convection, and this layer thickens as it goes south. As far as I can tell in this area during summer and Autumn when high pressure belt is further south this layer is thicker and often thick enough to support lower level convection which forms the typical coastal shower that isn't as tall as a typical thunderstorm. On many fine days on the coast you can watch fair weather cumulus build up to a particular height and then dissipate as the tops hit a stable layer - which I assume is this trade wind inversion. I'd guess that the clouds you were watching were hitting this layer and that at the moment this layer is high enough to get close to rain, or even give the odd random shower near the coast early in the morning (ran into one yesterday)

tradeWindInv.jpg


source
Thanks for that explanation.
On the drive home from Wondai to Kingaroy I did come across one small band of similar cloud (probably spanned 1 km across & 8 km in length) , was about pm by then & it was very dark at the bottom of the cloud & you could see large waves, almost like bands of lumpy mammatus type cloud. It was traveling west & at the back end of it I had a few drops of rain on the windscreen. So we were not far off getting a sprinkle, lol.
 

Kazza47

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You know the drill Kazza, it doesn't matter how much good rain's fallen over a number of months, as soon as there's been a couple of weeks of drier weather, it's "OMG so much for La Nina", "where's La Nina gone?", etc etc

It's only been a couple of weeks since I posted the rainfall percentage map above in here but will do it again as a useful reminder of what's already fallen.
Huge areas of above average rainfall overall and not just restricted to one month either. Large areas of record rain as well, particularly November.

Even if no further rain fell between now and the end of summer, a period during which the effects of La Nina's often start to wane, it still wouldn't change the fact that big areas of above average rain have already fallen during the late winter-early summer period which is a common time when La Nina's rainfall effects are pronounced.

The big question is though, how long will the current overall drier period so far this month (not including the locally extreme falls in the WBB recently or the upcoming shower/storm potential) go on for. Will it last for ages until La Nina is done and dusted, or is it only a temporary aberration.
Yeah can't believe I didn't put "La Nina's over" on the bingo card .......... oh well.
 

Multiversity

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Rays74

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Is it possible to know the longest amount rainy days we've had sequentially in a row?

I'm curious about records for Brisbane and Toowoomba.

For example , can we know if it's rained or showered 5 , 10 or whatever days in a row?

I think 1mm or above would be fine.

I'm kind of curious about our last continious rain outbreak over a period of days?

Cheers
 

MegaMatch

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As great as these past few months for us have been, I just can't ignore the seemingly endless dry period that preceded it. And now that we're nearing the end of a double-dip Nina (which felt like a single event if you lived in the Capricornia/WBB), there is surely every chance we slip straight back into that pattern again for however long.

Please don't take this as a complaint; it's merely just me expressing my concerns over the years to come.
 

BrettSS

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Paul’s milk depot / processing at South Brisbane also got flooded in 2011. Probably had more influence on milk shortages than Rocklea. I am not aware of Rocklea having a significant function in the supply chain for milk (But I haven’t checked). Anyway the supply chain impacts in floods are often worse when there are simultaneously impacts on multiple facilities affecting supplies, utilities, infrastructure.
It was a checkout person at Coles who told us that the store had run out of milk and was unable to get new supplies because the Rocklea markets were flooded. He said that that was also the reason why supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables were low (though canned fruit was still available). It is quite possible, for all I know, that he was mistaken in saying that it was because of the Rocklea markets being flooded that the store had run out of milk.
 

BrettSS

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As great as these past few months for us have been, I just can't ignore the seemingly endless dry period that preceded it. And now that we're nearing the end of a double-dip Nina (which felt like a single event if you lived in the Capricornia/WBB), there is surely every chance we slip straight back into that pattern again for however long.

Please don't take this as a complaint; it's merely just me expressing my concerns over the years to come.
I think that that's a perfectly legitimate concern. In fact, it is virtually certain that there will be droughts in the future, with the only uncertainty being when they will occur and how severe they will be. As usual, the best advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
 

BrettSS

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Is it possible to know the longest amount rainy days we've had sequentially in a row?

I'm curious about records for Brisbane and Toowoomba.

For example , can we know if it's rained or showered 5 , 10 or whatever days in a row?

I think 1mm or above would be fine.

I'm kind of curious about our last continious rain outbreak over a period of days?

Cheers
SATURDAY, JANUARY 15TH, 2022


You can find the daily rainfall data for various sites in Australia here.


S3otxkREtb3-YheKgsWvqKpT8cShOrp9rnaJwU4xv3cmAjDe9k.jpg
 

Ken Kato

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A massive volcanic eruption's occurred in the Tongan region which has caused a significant tsunami that's inundated some areas in the region (but the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre's issued a No Tsunami bulletin for Australian shores).

It's also caused a huge shockwave to radiate out and its condensation's been clearly visible on satpic imagery. Also, lightning in the ash plume (sometimes observed with volcanic eruptions due to the vigorous motions within the ash).
 

Multiversity

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absolutely blown away by this. Eruption, ash cloud lightning, shock wave, tsunamis the lot. Waiting for # Hiroshima A-bomb equiv









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1642227174496.png


A massive volcanic eruption's occurred in the Tongan region which has caused a significant tsunami that's inundated some areas in the region (but the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre's issued a No Tsunami bulletin for Australian shores).

It's also caused a huge shockwave to radiate out and its condensation's been clearly visible on satpic imagery. Also, lightning in the ash plume (sometimes observed with volcanic eruptions due to the vigorous motions within the ash).
 

Flowin

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Yeah can't believe I didn't put "La Nina's over" on the bingo card .......... oh well.
Well Kazza that would add more excitement to the bingo such that you may no longer be able to call it bingo. And in fairness the bingo card should also have when is Nina is coming, Nina didn’t arrive, why hasn’t Nina left, and where is Nina? in order to preserve the odds for those of us that like to play unbiased bingo. ;)
D2AA7CEB-4A35-47DD-96B7-F86DB78FDA9E.jpeg
 

Flowin

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51821360361_4bbba166a2_o.gif



1642227174496.png


A massive volcanic eruption's occurred in the Tongan region which has caused a significant tsunami that's inundated some areas in the region (but the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre's issued a No Tsunami bulletin for Australian shores).

It's also caused a huge shockwave to radiate out and its condensation's been clearly visible on satpic imagery. Also, lightning in the ash plume (sometimes observed with volcanic eruptions due to the vigorous motions within the ash).
That is amazing. The speed and more complete data and imagery available now on such events blows one’s mind. A few decades ago we would have found out about that a day more later.
 

Weathertraveller

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A massive volcanic eruption's occurred in the Tongan region which has caused a significant tsunami that's inundated some areas in the region (but the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre's issued a No Tsunami bulletin for Australian shores).

It's also caused a huge shockwave to radiate out and its condensation's been clearly visible on satpic imagery. Also, lightning in the ash plume (sometimes observed with volcanic eruptions due to the vigorous motions within the ash).
That first clip showing the eruption is amazing, however it looks like it's taken from a boat or ship. I hope they got away from there quickly, looks dangerous, too dangerous especially with a tsunami being generated and of course the ash.
 

BrettSS

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1642227174496.png


A massive volcanic eruption's occurred in the Tongan region which has caused a significant tsunami that's inundated some areas in the region (but the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre's issued a No Tsunami bulletin for Australian shores).

It's also caused a huge shockwave to radiate out and its condensation's been clearly visible on satpic imagery. Also, lightning in the ash plume (sometimes observed with volcanic eruptions due to the vigorous motions within the ash).
Incredible imagery. One can see the shockwave move through what looks like a tropical cyclone, which makes me wonder what effect it would have had on the TC. It'd also be interesting to know what its VEI (volcanic explosivity index) is.
 

Ken Kato

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Those huge gravity waves that have been rippling out thousands of km from the eruption have now almost reached SE QLD/NE NSW.

But I wouldn't expect any adverse consequences for Australia. Thunder-like sounds have also been reported as far away as some parts of NZ.
P.S. I just heard multiple dull thud sounds here but may have been the neighbours... not sure.
 

.RC.

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As great as these past few months for us have been, I just can't ignore the seemingly endless dry period that preceded it. And now that we're nearing the end of a double-dip Nina (which felt like a single event if you lived in the Capricornia/WBB), there is surely every chance we slip straight back into that pattern again for however long.
From where I am sitting, I have not seen anything that shows the dry period has ended.

One isolated rain event does not an extended dry spell break. Sure we had the best late spring early summer rainfall for a long time but that does not mean a trend has started. We are now halfway through summer and we here would be below average for summer so far.
 

Ken Kato

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A marine tsunami warning now in effect for waters around Norfolk Island.

Not only have there now been multiple reports (I heard it myself) of repeated soft thunderlike sounds in our region, the atmospheric gravity waves that have rippled out thousands of km from the eruption have now registered as a sudden noticeable oscillation in air pressures at many weather stations all up and down the east coast including Brisbane, Archerfield, Amberley, Gympie, Sydney, Melbourne, etc.

The sounds were much louder and more pronounced in parts of NZ.
 

Flowin

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From where I am sitting, I have not seen anything that shows the dry period has ended.

One isolated rain event does not an extended dry spell break. Sure we had the best late spring early summer rainfall for a long time but that does not mean a trend has started. We are now halfway through summer and we here would be below average for summer so far.
Can’t dispute or agree unless one defined metrics for ‘dry period ended’ and ‘rain event’ and ‘isolated rain event’. Summer, Spring, and Autumn timing also complicates interpretation of wet season when our climate is changing. If we don’t get much rain in coming months I would say we had an early wet season. If we get good rains in coming months I would say we had a longer wet season with strong spring season lead-in.
 
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